FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects: Franco 1st 80 FV

[The Feral Slasher]

I disagree....

hey !....

[The Feral Slasher]

Why does nobody believe I enjoy a good thread hijack? I have done them myself many times. Tough crowd. I thought you were old school enough to remember that, which means, like me, you aren't young, lol.

No idea who has the better career. Acuna is the probability pick; he's performed at the highest level at a silly young age (and probably would have a year younger (talent is talent), but the Braves sucked that year so no reason to bring him up a year early like the Nats did with Soto), but Franco is scary good. My guess is that Acuna is easily the better fantasy player but Franco could beat him in WAR---as a middle IF he'll get more on defense and the HR and SB that Acuna will bust him in for fantasy don't help in WAR as much as Franco's likely OBP advantage. But, if both stay healthy and don't have a weird downturn in production (much more likely for Franco---he's only made it to A+, but if he is as good as advertised, he'll be up in 2020; the Rays are good and some talent won't let you wait), why bother quibbling over inner-circle HOFers?

Hijacking is not a problem....so here goes. How could anyone say the Nats braught up Soto a year early ? He was amazing and ready and put up great numbers. Unless you are looking from an ownership perspective.

[cavebird]

Hijacking is not a problem....so here goes. How could anyone say the Nats braught up Soto a year early ? He was amazing and ready and put up great numbers. Unless you are looking from an ownership perspective.

Poor language on my part. My point it was a year earlier than Acuna---who was destroying the minors when Soto was called up. The only reason one was up and the other wasn't was because the positions in the standings. Like I said, some talent won't wait. But if you aren't actually trying to win MLB games, it will wait, lol.

[The Feral Slasher]

Poor language on my part. My point it was a year earlier than Acuna---who was destroying the minors when Soto was called up. The only reason one was up and the other wasn't was because the positions in the standings. Like I said, some talent won't wait. But if you aren't actually trying to win MLB games, it will wait, lol.

both amazing talents, as is Franco. Will be interesting to see how Franco compares in a few years

[Ken]

Poor language on my part. My point it was a year earlier than Acuna---who was destroying the minors when Soto was called up. The only reason one was up and the other wasn't was because the positions in the standings. Like I said, some talent won't wait. But if you aren't actually trying to win MLB games, it will wait, lol.

That's not accurate.

The Nats were able to bring Soto up quickly with confidence due to his maturity at the plate. He walked more than he struck out at his last two stops in the minors in fact. That kind of profile is extremely successful in transitioning to the bigs.

Acuna, while a superstar, does not have the same skillset. In fact, it's almost polar opposite. His 25% K rate prevented the Braves from having that assurance that Acuna would transition smoothly. So moving slightly slower made sense. In retrospect, it worked, and quite well. But it's not really useful to compare the two as prospects, they are quite different.

[The Feral Slasher]

That's not accurate.

The Nats were able to bring Soto up quickly with confidence due to his maturity at the plate. He walked more than he struck out at his last two stops in the minors in fact. That kind of profile is extremely successful in transitioning to the bigs.

Acuna, while a superstar, does not have the same skillset. In fact, it's almost polar opposite. His 25% K rate prevented the Braves from having that assurance that Acuna would transition smoothly. So moving slightly slower made sense. In retrospect, it worked, and quite well. But it's not really useful to compare the two as prospects, they are quite different.

I disagree

[Sour Masher]

Why does nobody believe I enjoy a good thread hijack? I have done them myself many times. Tough crowd. I thought you were old school enough to remember that, which means, like me, you aren't young, lol.

No idea who has the better career. Acuna is the probability pick; he's performed at the highest level at a silly young age (and probably would have a year younger (talent is talent), but the Braves sucked that year so no reason to bring him up a year early like the Nats did with Soto), but Franco is scary good. My guess is that Acuna is easily the better fantasy player but Franco could beat him in WAR---as a middle IF he'll get more on defense and the HR and SB that Acuna will bust him in for fantasy don't help in WAR as much as Franco's likely OBP advantage. But, if both stay healthy and don't have a weird downturn in production (much more likely for Franco---he's only made it to A+, but if he is as good as advertised, he'll be up in 2020; the Rays are good and some talent won't let you wait), why bother quibbling over inner-circle HOFers?

Ha, no, I knew it was sincere praise for a hijack well done, but I still felt a little bad no one was talking about Franco's near unprecedented hype . He deserves the same crazy amount of discussion as Vlad Jr did.

[cavebird]

That's not accurate.

The Nats were able to bring Soto up quickly with confidence due to his maturity at the plate. He walked more than he struck out at his last two stops in the minors in fact. That kind of profile is extremely successful in transitioning to the bigs.

Acuna, while a superstar, does not have the same skillset. In fact, it's almost polar opposite. His 25% K rate prevented the Braves from having that assurance that Acuna would transition smoothly. So moving slightly slower made sense. In retrospect, it worked, and quite well. But it's not really useful to compare the two as prospects, they are quite different.

I disagree, mostly. They are certainly different types of prospects and skillsets. That being said, at the same again, in AA (counting stuff below AA is questionable due to the wildly poorer and more variable quality of pitching) Acuna had a BB rate of 7.4% with a K rate of 23.0%. Soto had (in admittedly a ridiculously small sample size) a BB rate of 11.0% and a K rate of 20.0% (which he has freakishly matched exactly in the majors in both 2018 and 2019). What the Nats had was severe injury issues in the OF and a crazy good prospect, so they rolled the dice, and it came out great. I don't think the Braves would have done anything differently with Acuna than the Nats did with Soto if they had been in the same situation.

[Ken]

I disagree, mostly. They are certainly different types of prospects and skillsets. That being said, at the same again, in AA (counting stuff below AA is questionable due to the wildly poorer and more variable quality of pitching) Acuna had a BB rate of 7.4% with a K rate of 23.0%. Soto had (in admittedly a ridiculously small sample size) a BB rate of 11.0% and a K rate of 20.0% (which he has freakishly matched exactly in the majors in both 2018 and 2019). What the Nats had was severe injury issues in the OF and a crazy good prospect, so they rolled the dice, and it came out great. I don't think the Braves would have done anything differently with Acuna than the Nats did with Soto if they had been in the same situation.

You just made an argument based on an 8 game sample size? C'mon man, are you just arguing to argue at this point? You're smarter than this.

[cavebird]

You just made an argument based on an 8 game sample size? C'mon man, are you just arguing to argue at this point? You're smarter than this.

And if you're ignoring that 8-game sample size, your entire argument is based on A-ball numbers--they didn't bring him "up quickly with confidence" based on A-ball numbers. No way the Nats brought him up at that point without having to take a stab in the dark due to injuries. Otherwise, teams would bring prospects up from A-ball all the time if they have good BB/K numbers. Does not happen. You must be smarter than to make that argument.

[Ken]

And if you're ignoring that 8-game sample size, your entire argument is based on A-ball numbers--they didn't bring him "up quickly with confidence" based on A-ball numbers. No way the Nats brought him up at that point without having to take a stab in the dark due to injuries. Otherwise, teams would bring prospects up from A-ball all the time if they have good BB/K numbers. Does not happen. You must be smarter than to make that argument.

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Your argument above was based on an 8 game sample in AA. That's either lazy or just disingenuous. Do you have a different argument that's statistically reliable since that's an obvious small sample size mistake?

Surely you don't actually think that teams are incapable of evaluating A ball talent. (see Franco, Wander)
And surely you realize that top prospects with mature approaches are rushed to the big leagues.

The AA stats were silly and you know it. Make a different argument.

[cavebird]

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Your argument above was based on an 8 game sample in AA. That's either lazy or just disingenuous. Do you have a different argument that's statistically reliable since that's an obvious small sample size mistake?

Surely you don't actually think that teams are incapable of evaluating A ball talent. (see Franco, Wander)
And surely you realize that top prospects with mature approaches are rushed to the big leagues.

The AA stats were silly and you know it. Make a different argument.

A-ball stats are more random than the higher minors. To say that the Nats were confident and not just trying something and hoping and wishing based on A-ball stats is just silly. The Franco argument is also silly. He has had far, far more plate appearances in A-ball than Soto, and there is no inkling that he will start the year in the majors. If there was a comparison, he would have been up last year. Saying that the Nats were "confident" based on A-ball stats is "silly and[,] and you know it. Make a different argument."

EDIT: Total A-ball plate appearances for Soto: 267. Total A-ball plate appearances for Franco so far: 495.

[Ken]

A-ball stats are more random than the higher minors. To say that the Nats were confident and not just trying something and hoping and wishing based on A-ball stats is just silly.

You're still whiffing completely. Hitters who are able to control the strike zone such that they are walking as much or more as they are striking out shows an advanced maturity at the plate. That gives a team *more* confidence of their ability to move quickly through the minors.

Look at Griffey, look at Vlad Jr, look at Pujols, look at John Olerud (who skipped the minors entirely), look at Adrian Beltre, look at Greg Jefferies, look at Miguel Cabrera (to a lesser extent).

The more you look the more the pattern becomes evident - young players who are successful against competition significantly older than them, who display an advanced, mature approach at the plate. They often spend much less time in the upper minors, and there's no confusion as to why - that type of mature approach against older pitchers suggests a skillset that translates.

Make fun of me for saying that they were confident all you want, if you want to giggle over the corner that's fine. But it's the truth - mature approaches for young hitters are one of the best indicators of a future superstar.

Soto had that. Acuna didn't. They were quite different as prospects. They are both superstars.

I'm not sure what the heck that has to do with you using an 8 game sample to try to prove your point, it feels like you are very likely deflecting, but even your deflection is a fail.

The Franco argument is also silly.

No it's not. Franco shows a similar mature approach. He's in A ball. You suggested we couldn't gleam that kind of information from A ball. But look at that, all the prospect evaluators are doing it. Amazing!

He has had far, far more plate appearances in A-ball than Soto, and there is no inkling that he will start the year in the majors. If there was a comparison, he would have been up last year.

You whiffed on the point - he's one of the best prospects we've seen in a very long time because of his mature approach. Whether he is in the majors or not.

Saying that the Nats were "confident" based on A-ball stats is "silly and[,] and you know it. Make a different argument."

OK, bring out more 8 game samples buddy. Lets hear about how statistically relevant they are! Show your work please.

[Ken]

Here let me help you "oops, I didn't realize his AA numbers were just 8 games, I goofed on that, honestly didn't even look at the small sample. Disregard that point, it's not a good one".

Would that be so hard? Instead of deflecting? Let's just admit that one was really silly because from thousands of posts I've seen from you I know you are much smarter than that.

Stubborn, yes (like me), but smarter than someone who would seriously try to base an argument on 8 games from a hitter? Absolutely.

[Ken]

Ha, no, I knew it was sincere praise for a hijack well done, but I still felt a little bad no one was talking about Franco's near unprecedented hype . He deserves the same crazy amount of discussion as Vlad Jr did.

I'm still trying to include him in the conversation! (Although scolded for doing so b/c he's not in mlb yet, lol)

83 BB and just 54 strikeouts in leagues where he's 3+ years younger than the average competition. He looks ridiculously good, and the profile matches Juan Soto type in that regard.