Best keeper options?

[Erik]

Thanks for all the feedback so far.

Some of you have recommended Aquino but I am concerned with playing time issues. The Reds brought in Castellanos and Akiyama, and the situation will get even more crowded when Senzel returns. There has even been talk that Aquino might start the year in the minors. I worry about what opportunity cost I might miss if I keep Aquino and the Reds bury him.

[chancellor]

Then keep Yuli, but realize he’s more likely to hit 20 than 30 HR

[scottw]

Hey Scott,

The prices I listed are their keeper prices this year. Aquino, Urias, etc. would be $6 if I kept them in 2021. Not something I need to consider until this time next year, as there are no long-term contracts.

Even better deal! I don't have a point of reference on prices in your league, so I don't know if Seager will go cheaper than $18., but he sure would look good in most any lineup.

[Ken]

Even better deal! I don't have a point of reference on prices in your league, so I don't know if Seager will go cheaper than $18., but he sure would look good in most any lineup.

Look good how? He's not that great of a fantasy asset at this point. He was worth around $10 in this type format last year.

[cavebird]

2C or 1C? If 1C, Garver is definitely out. Given the format, I would go for upside, which, given the SB-CS, is a little light on your choices (your two obvious ones are obvious, lol, they are the great ones). I'd go Pham definitely, and Urias and Robles because of upside, but the others don't seem super special and don't stand out from each other. Rogers maybe, since he has the job on a good team. (Of course, if you aren't planning on contending, he's less of a choice since the shelf life of a closer like him is very short.).

[cavebird]

I disagree about Aquino. I don't think he gets or keeps playing time. Too many holes in his swing, way too many K's, and way too many OF on Cincy's roster.

[scottw]

Look good how? He's not that great of a fantasy asset at this point. He was worth around $10 in this type format last year.

From CBS:
Corey Seager, despite coming back off both elbow and hip injuries, was still an above-average offensive producer in 2019. Yet, the level of production, especially with the 2019 baseball, was disappointing for fantasy owners. In hindsight, expectations really should have been lowered for someone coming off two major surgeries as Seager was. The splits show a guy that still inflicts damage against righties, but has had struggles against lefties in both the abbreviated 2018 season as well as this past season. His Statcast data also shows a step back from the quality of contact baseline that he established from 2015 through 2017 with some particular struggles against breaking balls. The great thing here is that 2019 is a very attractive floor to what this talented hitter can do for your roster. Seager, when healthy, is going to be very productive and presents a solid value for those not suffering from recency bias.

[Ken]

From CBS:
Corey Seager, despite coming back off both elbow and hip injuries, was still an above-average offensive producer in 2019. Yet, the level of production, especially with the 2019 baseball, was disappointing for fantasy owners. In hindsight, expectations really should have been lowered for someone coming off two major surgeries as Seager was. The splits show a guy that still inflicts damage against righties, but has had struggles against lefties in both the abbreviated 2018 season as well as this past season. His Statcast data also shows a step back from the quality of contact baseline that he established from 2015 through 2017 with some particular struggles against breaking balls. The great thing here is that 2019 is a very attractive floor to what this talented hitter can do for your roster. Seager, when healthy, is going to be very productive and presents a solid value for those not suffering from recency bias.

I get that, but he's simply not a great fantasy asset. He's okay. He's the 18th SS off the board by ADP this year. If you are in a mixed league that means he's a MI type.

His main problem is that in a league deep in SS where everyone can hit with power, he doesn't run.

[scottw]

Isn't it a bit shortsighted to look at the worst years he has had, where he was battling serious injury, and determine that he is not worthy of keeping? Talent, as you well know, will always win out, and the kid has that. What is so far-fetched about the idea that he may actually get back to where he was pre-injury? Agreed, don't spend a fortune on him at draft, but what Erik is looking at as a keeper is not crazy money.

[cavebird]

Here, I agree with Ken. Seager's problem isn't that he won't get back to where he was (he might, he might not, but that's priced in), it's just that his talents don't translate to fantasy as well as others.

[Ken]

Isn't it a bit shortsighted to look at the worst years he has had, where he was battling serious injury, and determine that he is not worthy of keeping? Talent, as you well know, will always win out, and the kid has that. What is so far-fetched about the idea that he may actually get back to where he was pre-injury? Agreed, don't spend a fortune on him at draft, but what Erik is looking at as a keeper is not crazy money.

If we go back to his numbers pre-injury, say his 2016 season where he was 3rd in MVP and played a full year, and apply them to a 17 team mixed with 2020 projections for other players and the categories described for this league we get a $15-$16 player. And that's probably optimistic.

[Erik]

2C or 1C? If 1C, Garver is definitely out. Given the format, I would go for upside, which, given the SB-CS, is a little light on your choices (your two obvious ones are obvious, lol, they are the great ones). I'd go Pham definitely, and Urias and Robles because of upside, but the others don't seem super special and don't stand out from each other. Rogers maybe, since he has the job on a good team. (Of course, if you aren't planning on contending, he's less of a choice since the shelf life of a closer like him is very short.).

Thanks, I should have clarified lineups. It's 1 C.

I never go into a season not planning on contending.

[cavebird]

Okay. Then Garver is out. No need to keep a catcher in a 1 C 17-team mixed equivalent, unless all the good catchers are not on the teams in it. In that situation, I would go with Urias, Pham, Robles, and Rogers. Not sure about the fifth.

[Erik]

The Twins will be in the draft pool, so I will be able to try to redraft Garver if I throw him back.

[Erik]

So we ended up not playing last year, and will go into 2021 using keeper values based on 2019 salaries, and we picked up a new owner. Here's the deal again:

This is an odd league in which there are 11 owners drafting from 18 MLB teams plus certain players not on those teams. It's basically the equivalent of a 17-team mixed league. We do not have contracts; to keep someone, you pay them 150% of the previous year's salary or $4, whichever is more expensive. We are 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG and SB minus CS instead of SB. We have a 21-man active roster and a 9-man bench; on the bench, there is no distinction between major and minor leaguers.

We keep 7. I am definitely keeping Bellinger $8. Below are the possibilities for the other 6. Who from this list do you like?

1B Y. Gurriel $4
SS C. Seager $18
3B Rendon $24
3B L. Urias $4
OF Haniger $11
OF Pham $8
OF Robles $8
OF Te. Hernandez $4
P Plesac $4
P T. Rogers $4
P J. Urias $4