2k20: Juan Soto

[joncarlos]

So initially I was thinking, man, who would draft Juan Soto with a top 10 overall pick? Then I looked at the numbers and thought, ooooh man I'd love to get him 9th or 10th overall.

Then I thought, well can he put up those crazy R/RBI numbers with Rendon gone? And I thought, isn't he just Nolan Arenado with the prospect of some steals? But then, isn't Arenado still going in the top 15 or 16? (Also, though it isn't a start in 5x5, I know that Soto walks more than Arenado)

Soto 2019: 659pa .282-34-110-110r-12sb ... .401 OBP, .548 SLG, 16.4% BB, 20% K
Arenado 2019: 662pa .315-41-118-102r-3sb
Arenado 2018: 673pa .297-38-110-104r-2sb
Arenado 2017: 680pa .309-37-130-100r-3sb

Soto's Steamer projection: 646pa, .292-34-106-97r-9sb

Soto's hard hit % on Baseball Savant is in the 92nd percentile, exit velo 89th percentile (Arenado, BTW, is 40th percentile and 58th percentile, so thanks Coors!)

What says the 'pen? Legit top 10 player? Soto's sprint speed was in the 60th percentile, so not terrible, but the 12 steals seemed a little out of nowhere, even if he was only caught once. In 2018 he was 5-for-7 in steals in 494 PAs.

[cavebird]

Don't count on the steals, but he's really, really good. He could be as good as any hitter in the top 10 who doesn't run; easily. Or better. It was Soto's age 20 season last year.

[chancellor]

He's a top-8 pick in an OBP league, IMO. In my redraft league, I'm drafting third so I'll not be getting him, but if I were more mid-round, I'd want him.

[Ken]

It looks like he might make the team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-next-step-for-2020

[Sour Masher]

It looks like he might make the team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-next-step-for-2020

Love it. It would be a very lofty goal for most 21 year olds! What a beast this guy is. And humble, it seems.

[harmon]

There's a real chance at another level for him. It doesn't seem like a crazy stretch to think he could be in the top 5 when all is said and done in 2020.

[ThatRogue]

There's a real chance at another level for him. It doesn't seem like a crazy stretch to think he could be in the top 5 when all is said and done in 2020.

This line makes his potential even scarier:

"Soto would like to add base stealing to his offensive repertoire this year. He figures if he is going to get walked, he could add a swiped bag to it, too. Last season, he had 12 steals."

Could this be a precursor to a .300BAvg/.420 OBP/40 HR/20 SB season? Could Soto actually be undervalued in auctions/drafts?

[DMT]

Man, I'm getting tempted to extend him thru 2023 at $33 rather than $28 thru 2022. OBA and Slug instead of BA and HR.

[chancellor]

Man, I'm getting tempted to extend him thru 2023 at $33 rather than $28 thru 2022. OBA and Slug instead of BA and HR.

You’re a mixed league player, if I remember right. How many teams? 12 or 14, I jump him to $33 and mock your opponents who thought they had hoped of getting him in ‘23.

[DMT]

You’re a mixed league player, if I remember right. How many teams? 12 or 14, I jump him to $33 and mock your opponents who thought they had hoped of getting him in ‘23.

Yep, 12-team mixed.

[cavebird]

I would not expect 20 SB, even if he wants to do it. He's thick and can hit, like really, really hit. Letting him run wild would be silly. Given his defensive prowess, I imagine he'll be at 1B in five years. He's still a top 10 guy.

[ThatRogue]

I would not expect 20 SB, even if he wants to do it. He's thick and can hit, like really, really hit. Letting him run wild would be silly. Given his defensive prowess, I imagine he'll be at 1B in five years. He's still a top 10 guy.

Thick, can really, really hit, takes walks and wants to steal bases...sounds like Mike Trout. He steals a few bases from time to time...

[Ken]

Thick, can really, really hit, takes walks and wants to steal bases...sounds like Mike Trout. He steals a few bases from time to time...

I know mostly in jest but the original question was still valid. The Trout comparison is poor, Trout stole a base more than once every three games on average in the minors. Soto, once every 14.
20 steals is not reasonable. It could happen, but that's a 99th percentile projection.

[ThatRogue]

I know mostly in jest but the original question was still valid. The Trout comparison is poor, Trout stole a base more than once every three games on average in the minors. Soto, once every 14.
20 steals is not reasonable. It could happen, but that's a 99th percentile projection.

I'm only comparing him to Trout regarding body type and hitting style, in response to Cavebird's comment. However, with as many times as he's on base, and as much as the Braves run, I wouldn't be surprised to see him wind up with 20 SBs.

[harmon]

Soto gets his first SB yesterday.