AL keepers advice - Value studs, sketchy closers, or prospect question marks?

[SlideRule]

I like to peruse my potential keepers this time of year, and this year in particular I thought some of my decision making ties into the recent and (mostly) rich inflation/value discussions we've had here. In particular, the topic of it being possibly counter-intuitive that it's smarter to keep an at-value high-priced stud vs. a low-cost player with a higher direct "value" vs. his projected cost. This year I have a few clear keepers, and a few interesting decisions to make between very different types of candidate players of similar keeper value. I'd love to hear your inputs or what your decision process might be.

League details: 10 team AL only, standard 5x5 $260, keep 8 on A-B-C contracts. Inflation is usually around 25% and focused on the $20-$40 players. Catchers and closers always go higher than industry values. I won last year.

Keeper options:
Salary Contract Player
$5 A Sean Murphy C | OAK
$15 A Marcus Semien SS | OAK
$5 B Adalberto Mondesi SS | KC
$6 A Gio Urshela 3B | NYY
$30 A George Springer OF | HOU
$1 A J.P. Crawford SS | SEA
$8 A Austin Hays OF | BAL

$5 B Tyler Glasnow P | TB
$1 B Marco Gonzales P | SEA
$3 A Joe Jimenez P | DET
$8 A Hansel Robles P | LAA
$4 A Taylor Rogers P | MIN



If I calculate a "keeper value" using the Ken method (or the expected_price*inflation - cost method, same result) the rankings of the keepers is:

Player Salary Value
1 Adalberto Mondesi SS | KC $5 $28
2 Tyler Glasnow P | TB $5 $17
3 Taylor Rogers P | MIN $4 $12
4 Marcus Semien SS | OAK $15 $11
5 Gio Urshela 3B | NYY $6 $8
6 Joe Jimenez P | DET $3 $6
7 George Springer OF | HOU $30 $6
8 Marco Gonzales P | SEA $1 $5
9 Sean Murphy C | OAK $5 $3
10 Hansel Robles P | LAA $8 $1
11 J.P. Crawford SS | SEA $1 $1
12 Austin Hays OF | BAL $8 $(1)

The numbers move around a bit depending on whose projections I use.

So obviously I want to keep Mondesi and Glasnow. Probably will also keep Semien, Urshela, and Rogers. That leaves three from the rest. I see the big questions as:
- Should I use $30 in keeping Springer given his volatility the past few years, but also to protect a higher-priced stud from an inflated price?
- How much risk is involved in Robles and Jimenez? And Rogers, for that matter? Worth it to use keeper spots on the increasingly-uncertain closer spot? Hard not to, without obvious keeper alternatives.
- Is the boring reliability of mediocre numbers from Marco Gonzalez at $1 worth a keeper spot over the higher risk/reward of a Sean Murphy at $5, with potentially 2021 at that price as well?

Thanks for your input!

[Art Vandelay]

I like to peruse my potential keepers this time of year, and this year in particular I thought some of my decision making ties into the recent and (mostly) rich inflation/value discussions we've had here. In particular, the topic of it being possibly counter-intuitive that it's smarter to keep an at-value high-priced stud vs. a low-cost player with a higher direct "value" vs. his projected cost. This year I have a few clear keepers, and a few interesting decisions to make between very different types of candidate players of similar keeper value. I'd love to hear your inputs or what your decision process might be.

League details: 10 team AL only, standard 5x5 $260, keep 8 on A-B-C contracts. Inflation is usually around 25% and focused on the $20-$40 players. Catchers and closers always go higher than industry values. I won last year.

Keeper options:
Salary Contract Player
$5 A Sean Murphy C | OAK
$15 A Marcus Semien SS | OAK
$5 B Adalberto Mondesi SS | KC
$6 A Gio Urshela 3B | NYY
$30 A George Springer OF | HOU
$1 A J.P. Crawford SS | SEA
$8 A Austin Hays OF | BAL

$5 B Tyler Glasnow P | TB
$1 B Marco Gonzales P | SEA
$3 A Joe Jimenez P | DET
$8 A Hansel Robles P | LAA
$4 A Taylor Rogers P | MIN



If I calculate a "keeper value" using the Ken method (or the expected_price*inflation - cost method, same result) the rankings of the keepers is:

Player Salary Value
1 Adalberto Mondesi SS | KC $5 $28
2 Tyler Glasnow P | TB $5 $17
3 Taylor Rogers P | MIN $4 $12
4 Marcus Semien SS | OAK $15 $11
5 Gio Urshela 3B | NYY $6 $8
6 Joe Jimenez P | DET $3 $6
7 George Springer OF | HOU $30 $6
8 Marco Gonzales P | SEA $1 $5
9 Sean Murphy C | OAK $5 $3
10 Hansel Robles P | LAA $8 $1
11 J.P. Crawford SS | SEA $1 $1
12 Austin Hays OF | BAL $8 $(1)

The numbers move around a bit depending on whose projections I use.

So obviously I want to keep Mondesi and Glasnow. Probably will also keep Semien, Urshela, and Rogers. That leaves three from the rest. I see the big questions as:
- Should I use $30 in keeping Springer given his volatility the past few years, but also to protect a higher-priced stud from an inflated price?
- How much risk is involved in Robles and Jimenez? And Rogers, for that matter? Worth it to use keeper spots on the increasingly-uncertain closer spot? Hard not to, without obvious keeper alternatives.
- Is the boring reliability of mediocre numbers from Marco Gonzalez at $1 worth a keeper spot over the higher risk/reward of a Sean Murphy at $5, with potentially 2021 at that price as well?

Thanks for your input!

joe.jimenez is automatic

Being the Yankee's, and gio coming from out of nowhere, I would try to trade g.u. as I don't have a massive amount of faith

I'd keep mondesi, glasnow, rogers, semien, jimenez. After that, it is a toss up. only definite no for me is hays

[Gregg]

Ours is 12 team OBP instead of ave.

I asked the 33B Springer owner if he is available he said no. So I traded him some reserve draft picks for his 40 Jose Ramirez to take the place of my $45A Betts. I did this just before the Betts trade was announced.

The loss of Betts will have impact on our auction as well as yours. I believe this (combined with your inflation number) makes your $30 Springer a keeper. And Ramirez for me.

I think Murphy is top 10 so in a two catcher league I keep him for $5. Plus I like the idea you get him this year and next. Or longer if he deserves a raise after this year. I believe I/you can find replace Gonzales in the auction easier than Murphy.

You are already keeping Rogers. Getting another cheap closer makes Robles and easy last pick for me.

[SlideRule]

You are already keeping Rogers. Getting another cheap closer makes Robles and easy last pick for me.

Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like you've picked 9 instead of my allowed 8. Are you not including Jimenez? Urshela?

[chancellor]

I take Jimenez and Marco off your top 8 and replace them with Robles and Murphy.

[Gregg]

Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like you've picked 9 instead of my allowed 8. Are you not including Jimenez? Urshela?

I was not including Jimenez.

[SlideRule]

I was not including Jimenez.

Interesting. You'd take Robles $8 over Jimenez $3 while Art V thinks Joe J. is an "automatic." I'd love to hear your arguments for one over the other!

One one hand, Jimenez is certainly being handed the job and had some good indicators towards the end of last year. On the other hand, he's had ample opportunities to claim said job over the past couple years and always managed to scare his managers away from making him the closer one way or another. And I know that crappy teams still generate saves opportunities, but the Tigers are going to be really crappy...

And as for Robles, he kinda came out of nowhere, dramatically decreased his BB/9IP last year, and fell into some unexpected save opps. His numbers are pretty rock solid last year and aside from the typical closer volatility and generally having out-performed his historical stats, I don't think there's any compelling reason to doubt he'll remain effective this year. But, he does cost $5 extra (which shouldn't be a big consideration all told).

Personally I think I'd lean slightly towards Robles, but am a bit nervous about his limited track record of success. I mean, look at Blake Treinen... one great year does not mean another one shall follow...

[chancellor]

Interesting. You'd take Robles $8 over Jimenez $3 while Art V thinks Joe J. is an "automatic." I'd love to hear your arguments for one over the other!

I'm in the same boat on Robles, and here's why - neither have an established track record of success, but both have the stuff to be successful. My concern with Jimenez isn't only that he's not good and loses the job (a distinct possibility), but that he's good and the Tigers trade him. Robles definitely has the risk of turning bad, but if he's good, it's pretty clear the Angels are going to try and make a run, so they won't want to upset their bullpen. Net-net, that's why I'd pay the extra $5.

Plus, if you cut Jimenez, you can keep Murphy, who I really like. And someone will pay significant $ to get Jimenez's saves, so you dent someone's auction wallet at the same time.

[joncarlos]

Ugh... 10-team AL is just about the worst level of closer hell this year. There's so many jumbled situations, and in a 12-team league I'd happily take 3 quasi-closers and hope for the best. But in a 10-team league I don't think you can do that. I also think Marco is fungible in a 10-teamer.

I don't really love Gio but I don't think you can throw him back either. I'd keep George. I'd keep Murphy. I'd roll the dice on Robles over Jimenez even if he costs more. The Tigers SUCK. Maddon strikes me as a relatively loyal-to-closers kinda guy so if Robles starts out well he could be huge.

-----

1 Adalberto Mondesi SS | KC $5 $28
2 Tyler Glasnow P | TB $5 $17
3 Taylor Rogers P | MIN $4 $12
4 Marcus Semien SS | OAK $15 $11
5 Gio Urshela 3B | NYY $6 $8
7 George Springer OF | HOU $30 $6
9 Sean Murphy C | OAK $5 $3
10 Hansel Robles P | LAA $8 $1

[Gregg]

Interesting. You'd take Robles $8 over Jimenez $3 while Art V thinks Joe J. is an "automatic." I'd love to hear your arguments for one over the other!

One one hand, Jimenez is certainly being handed the job and had some good indicators towards the end of last year. On the other hand, he's had ample opportunities to claim said job over the past couple years and always managed to scare his managers away from making him the closer one way or another. And I know that crappy teams still generate saves opportunities, but the Tigers are going to be really crappy...

And as for Robles, he kinda came out of nowhere, dramatically decreased his BB/9IP last year, and fell into some unexpected save opps. His numbers are pretty rock solid last year and aside from the typical closer volatility and generally having out-performed his historical stats, I don't think there's any compelling reason to doubt he'll remain effective this year. But, he does cost $5 extra (which shouldn't be a big consideration all told).

Personally I think I'd lean slightly towards Robles, but am a bit nervous about his limited track record of success. I mean, look at Blake Treinen... one great year does not mean another one shall follow...

Robles has increased his velocity 2mph over the last two years. Add the comments of Chance and JC to your own and it is a great case to keep Robles. $8 closers are cheap no matter how you slice it. In a half a year Robles will get more save chances than Jimenez does all year (and I like closers on crappy teams).

It you had one more keeper spot I would add Jimenez. I would see if I could package Jimenez and Urshela for a better keeper.

[Ken]

Robles has increased his velocity 2mph over the last two years. Add the comments of Chance and JC to your own and it is a great case to keep Robles. $8 closers are cheap not matter how you slice it. In a half a year Robles will get more save chances than Jimenez does all year (and I like closers on crappy teams).

It you had one more keeper spot I would add Jimenez. I would see if I could package Jimenez and Urshela for a better keeper.

The other way to look at it is that all closers, even the ones we think look elite (see Treinen 2019) are extremely volatile. So if you have an option of two closers who are at least within a tier or two of each other, the cheaper one is likely the way to go.

[Gregg]

within a tier or two of each other, the cheaper one is likely the way to go.

Not when we are talking about closers under 10 dollars. Two tiers is a mile and one tier is enough to make it worth the $5 spend.

Jimenez has value. He also had a great Sept to get his era to 4.37 and whip down to 1.32. He gives up a lot of hrs. and plays for a team that will lose a 100 games.

I would easily keep him at 3 if I didn't have Robles for $8.

[Ken]

Not when we are talking about closers under 10 dollars. Two tiers is a mile and one tier is enough to make it worth the $5 spend.

This is where I completely disagree. When the *best* closer going into 2019 wasn't able to keep his job, and that's just one example of many over the years, the difference between a tier 4 closer and a tier 6 closer is minimus. Give me the tier 6 closer and the extra $5 every time. Every time. Why would I want to spend $5 more on a guy who is just as likely to be worth $0 as the other one?

[chancellor]

This is where I completely disagree. When the *best* closer going into 2019 wasn't able to keep his job, and that's just one example of many over the years, the difference between a tier 4 closer and a tier 6 closer is minimus. Give me the tier 6 closer and the extra $5 every time. Every time. Why would I want to spend $5 more on a guy who is just as likely to be worth $0 as the other one?

Well, in this case, Robles doesn't likely carry the risk of being traded by a team in rebuild mode, so I'd posit that his chances of being high value relative to Jimenez are notably better.

[Ken]

Well, in this case, Robles doesn't likely carry the risk of being traded by a team in rebuild mode, so I'd posit that his chances of being high value relative to Jimenez are notably better.

That risk is worth $5? I can't agree.