AL keepers advice - Value studs, sketchy closers, or prospect question marks?

[SlideRule]

Well, in this case, Robles doesn't likely carry the risk of being traded by a team in rebuild mode, so I'd posit that his chances of being high value relative to Jimenez are notably better.

I'm not sure I agree that Jimenez has a higher trade risk, actually. He's only 24, is making basically the league minimum, and has 3 arb years left 2021/22/23. Robles, OTOH, is 29, is making almost $4M this year, and is a FA in 2021. If LAA falls out of contention I could see them unloading their "proven closer" for valuable future pieces. DET will obviously not be in contention, so why would they give up on a young, controllable asset that might be a bullpen anchor for the next 4 years?

[Art Vandelay]

Robles has increased his velocity 2mph over the last two years. Add the comments of Chance and JC to your own and it is a great case to keep Robles. $8 closers are cheap no matter how you slice it. In a half a year Robles will get more save chances than Jimenez does all year (and I like closers on crappy teams).

It you had one more keeper spot I would add Jimenez. I would see if I could package Jimenez and Urshela for a better keeper.

how bad was Detroit last year? I ask because shane green was leading the world in converted saves when traded

[Art Vandelay]

Well, in this case, Robles doesn't likely carry the risk of being traded by a team in rebuild mode, so I'd posit that his chances of being high value relative to Jimenez are notably better.

Jimenez is a free agent after the 2023 season (four seasons away)

[Ken]

how bad was Detroit last year? I ask because shane green was leading the world in converted saves when traded

I was told numerous times before the 2018 season that Greene was a bad risk because he would be traded. Those 32 saves for $2 were nice.

** I realize this is anecdotal and there are examples on the other side though!

[chancellor]

Jimenez is a free agent after the 2023 season (four seasons away)

But becomes arb eligible next year. If he's an "established closer", that'll drive his number up significantly. And Detroit has already established they'll trade a closer doing really well if they like the return.

[SlideRule]

But becomes arb eligible next year. If he's an "established closer", that'll drive his number up significantly. And Detroit has already established they'll trade a closer doing really well if they like the return.

I guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez

[Ken]

I guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez

Team advantage isn't really a thing. There's a difference between top teams and bottom teams. Between mediocre teams and bad teams, nah.

Winning perctange of the team only explains <10% of variance in saves.

Bad teams don't blow you out often, so when they win, there's often a save involved.

[Gregg]

I guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez

Robles has skill advantage.

[Gregg]

This is where I completely disagree. When the *best* closer going into 2019 wasn't able to keep his job, and that's just one example of many over the years, the difference between a tier 4 closer and a tier 6 closer is minimus. Give me the tier 6 closer and the extra $5 every time. Every time. Why would I want to spend $5 more on a guy who is just as likely to be worth $0 as the other one?

I am pretty sure you do not use one year of stats to determine who is the "best" at anything in our game. We have talk about regression all the time.

Our league didn't fall for Treinen's one good year. He went for $14 in our auction AL only. The money was spent on the real elite closers with Osuna going for 27, Chapman 26, and a few others going in the 20's.

Robles is going to have to be pretty bad not to earn $8 this year. While I think Jimenez will also earn his keep. I prefer Robles and believe he will out earn Jimenez this year for the reasons I have already given.

[Ken]

I am pretty sure you do not use one year of stats to determine who is the "best" at anything in our game. We have talk about regression all the time.

[/QUOTE]

Treinen was the first closer drafted in many drafts last year. But if you are getting hung up on just Treinen. The concept is that closers are extremely volatile

Robles is going to have to be pretty bad not to earn $8 this year. While I think Jimenez will also earn his keep. I prefer Robles and believe he will out earn Jimenez this year for the reasons I have already given.

ok

[chancellor]

I guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez

If you think Robles and Jimenez are equal trade risks, you keep Jimenez and the $5. I think you're wrong on that assessment - the Angels don't sign Rendon, trade two prospects and Rengifo to get Joc and a SP upgrade and then do a rebuild. The Tigers, OTOH, are fully in rebuild mode, and have already proven they'll deal their closer if they get value they're looking for.

[SlideRule]

If you think Robles and Jimenez are equal trade risks, you keep Jimenez and the $5. I think you're wrong on that assessment - the Angels don't sign Rendon, trade two prospects and Rengifo to get Joc and a SP upgrade and then do a rebuild. The Tigers, OTOH, are fully in rebuild mode, and have already proven they'll deal their closer if they get value they're looking for.

Totally agree that the Angels are not rebuilding. But:
1) I think the fact that DET is NOT going to contend may make it more likely they hold onto and develop a young closer, and
2) If LAA is in the playoff hunt and Robles isn’t quite as good as we’re expecting him to be they could easily go out and get a new closer, relegating Robles to the 8th.

I mean, we can speculate a lot about closer chaos. Now watch the Angels go out and trade for a breakout dominant Jimenez at the all-star break to replace a faltering Robles.

[SlideRule]

Amusingly pursuant to this conversation, MLB.com has a closer rankings article now that says this re: Jimenez"

"13) Tigers -- Joe Jiménez, RHP: The Tigers’ lone All-Star in 2019 finally earned the closer’s job after Detroit traded Shane Greene, and he cemented a hold on the position. Until they trade him too."

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-all-30-mlb-closers

Also FWIW, it ranks Jimenez 13th and Robles 18th.