the new coronavirus

i think one misconception is that it just suddenly jumped from an animal at a wet market to a human and immediately started jumping from human to human. because that is not exactly how zoonotic diseases spread. for example, the H5N1 bird flu which has a high mortality rate took years before it developed the ability to spread human to human and only rarely. which is why when it's found in poultry, millions of chickens have to be culled in order to prevent it from gaining that ability through genetic mutation.

what likely happened is that this coronavirus has been infecting people for at least months if not longer before it gained the ability to spread among humans. and it's likely people knew about it. it definitely came from a wet market, but which one and when is up for question. the first people showing signs of illness would be workers at the market in direct contact with the animals. one problem with detection is the seemingly low mortality rate of 2.5-3.5% and the alarmingly and unsure long incubation rate ranging from 3.5 to up to 14 days. also, that it only seems to cause death in older or people with weakened immune systems. so far the youngest person to die was a healthy 36 year old male. these factors can cause recognition of a new or emergent disease harder to detect.

thus you would have only a few older people becoming ill at first, most would've recovered and people would think it was something else. this would be the first stages of a pandemic. since the virus could only jump from bat to human or from bat to intermediate host to human. but eventually this scenario will repeat multiple times. during this time the virus is continually infecting the intermediate host, the animal that will have closer genes to humans -most likely a pig. or it will be an animal that is less exotic and is in more sustained contact with humans. so you see, for a zoonotic disease to become transmissible among humans, IT DOESN'T HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SARS which had a 10% mortality rate and MERS originated in bats, and masked palm civets (a mammal native to Asia and Africa) and camels served as intermediate hosts between bats to humans.

the good news is that never in the recorded history of mankind has a virus ever given up or changed it's ability to infect or contagiousness in order to increase it's mortality rate or become more lethal. that doesn't mean it can't happen since you are talking about random mutations being the driving factor. but it doesn't make sense for a virus to do it. deep down a virus wants to survive and spread not kill it's host. viruses are not intelligent, they follow physical laws and the accompanying rules of nature. as long as they have a natural reservoir, like bats, to reside in and survive while not emerging they are happy to keep doing their thing in those hosts. which raises an interesting question, why haven't viruses like ebola given up it's mortality rate to become more contagious? yet, HIV is an exception with a long incubation rate and high mortality rate. which possibly makes it the most dangerous virus in history. yet HIV doesn't kill directly. it lowers immune systems and another disease causes death.

but i digress. the Wuhan coronavirus could've been around for a year before going global outbreak. and at some point someone in authority definitely would've taken notice. the WHO praised China for it's response. but that is pretty much who the WHO is these days. they are beholden to their funding investors. in comparison the Bill Gates foundation's budget is larger than the WHO. one man. can't buy access to that. it's highly likely that the people that eventually knew about this new emerging global threat concealed it for their own reasons- whether that reason was due to profit loss or bad publicity or both.

the bad news is this new virus is here to stay forever. unlike SARS and MERS which was and can be contained, the Wuhan virus is a little different with it's longer incubation period and lower mortality. but that could be a premature prediction until the intermediate host is found. yet at this point with such human to human transmissible, we could end up being the primary host. a 3.5% mortality rate doesn't sound like much, but for comparison, the Spanish flu or the 1918 flu had like a rate under 3% yet killed 50 million people due to the environmental circumstances.

this new disease was preventable. and it should've been prevented. and as a result there are individual people who are indirectly responsible for this. and who probably knew about it before it became uncontainable. worst case scenario if it keeps spreading the way it is, by march 5th 2020 every person in China will have been infected with it.

[heyelander]

Anyone who has played Plague Inc knows all this

[nullnor]

I haven't done a lot of reading on this as there isn't a lot to read since it's new. so most of it is just people talking about bullshit without retrospect. and I am laying in bed thinking, I wonder how closely this is related to the SARS outbreak in 2002. so it appears it did come directly from bats without an intermediate host. and I read this one binds to the same receptors in the lungs and gastrointestinal. which means human waste can possibly contribute to infections. from 1/1/2020 notice how everyone was like no signs of human to human transmission

https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/2020/01/phylogenetic-analysis-shows-novel-wuhan-coronavirus-clusters-with-sars

this one from 11/30/17
https://journals.plos.org/plospathog...l.ppat.1006698

As a whole, our findings from a 5-year longitudinal study conclusively demonstrate that all building blocks of the pandemic SARS-CoV genome are present in bat SARSr-CoVs from a single location in Yunnan. The data show that frequent recombination events have happened among those SARSr-CoVs in the same cave. While we cannot rule out the possibility that similar gene pools of SARSr-CoVs exist elsewhere, we have provided sufficient evidence to conclude that SARS-CoV most likely originated from horseshoe bats via recombination events among existing SARSr-CoVs. In addition, we have also revealed that various SARSr-CoVs capable of using human ACE2 are still circulating among bats in this region. Thus, the risk of spillover into people and emergence of a disease similar to SARS is possible. This is particularly important given that the nearest village to the bat cave we surveyed is only 1.1 km away, which indicates a potential risk of exposure to bats for the local residents. Thus, we propose that monitoring of SARSr-CoV evolution at this and other sites should continue, as well as examination of human behavioral risk for infection and serological surveys of people, to determine if spillover is already occurring at these sites and to design intervention strategies to avoid future disease emergence.

I still think it would seem more likely there was an intermediate host. also, it would seem that it didn't originate from the Wuhan market.

[nullnor]

at the bottom of the tree feline infectious peritonitis. FIP is caused by a coronavirus. I remember reading that once. I don't think they classify it as a contagious cancer. it sounds like it should be. or I am thinking humans. 15-20%of human cancers involve viruses, human T-cell leukemia, hepatitis B, C, HPV. that's weird, hepatitis B is a DNA virus I think and C is RNA. human T-cell leukemia is distantly related to HIV. Tasmanian devils are going extinct from a contagious virus. that one I understand because the cancer is caused by the species having very similar immune systems and when they bite each other it doesn't recognize the infected cell as foreign. not sure if the other ones cause it directly.

reading up I see Newt Gingrich's sister was instrumental in helping to develop medicine for FIP with a donation from him. and there seems to be a battle at the FDA to get them approved while it's success has fueled a black market for it in China. i'll never say anything bad about Newt again.

[nullnor]

Anyone who has played Plague Inc knows all this

i should try that game. it says it'll run on a integrated video card but then says it doesn't support intel3000. i wonder if it would still run. i looked it up on steam and some guy said there is a 90% of winning if you do some things every time. i bet the repeated game play resides in the different ways and stuff though

check this out https://journals.plos.org/plospathog...l.ppat.1008191 it says H5N1 (60% mortality) shows decent ability to infect humans genetically but that it can't sustain it due to environment.

Here, we analyze a unique dataset of deep sequence data from H5N1 virus-infected humans and domestic ducks in Cambodia. We find that well-known markers of human receptor binding and replication arise in multiple, independent humans. We also find that 3 mutations detected within-host are enriched along phylogenetic branches leading to human infections, suggesting that they are likely human-adapting. However, we also show that within-host evolution in both humans and ducks are shaped heavily by purifying selection and genetic drift, and that a large fraction of within-host variation is never detected on the H5N1 phylogeny. Taken together, our data show that H5N1 viruses do generate human-adapting mutations during natural infection. However, short infection times, purifying selection, and genetic drift may severely limit how much H5N1 viruses can evolve during the course of a single infection.

The likelihood that an AIV will adapt to replicate and transmit among humans depends on generating and selecting human-adaptive mutations during spillover. Influenza viruses have high mutation rates[5–8], short generation times[9], and large populations, and rapidly generate diversity within-host. Laboratory studies using animal models[10–12] show that only 3–5 amino acid substitutions may be required to render H5N1 viruses mammalian-transmissible[10–12], and that viral variants present at frequencies as low as 5% may be transmitted by respiratory droplets[13]. Subsequent modeling studies suggest that within-host dynamics are conducive to generating human-transmissible viruses, but that these viruses may remain at frequencies too low for transmission[14,15]. Although these studies offer critical insight for H5N1 virus risk assessment, it is unclear whether they adequately describe how cross-species transmission proceeds in nature.

[nullnor]

https://journals.plos.org/plospathog...l.ppat.1005531 here's an article on FIP and how these guys have experimental lab work to stop it from spreading.

Coronaviruses comprise a large family of RNA viruses that infect a wide variety of mammalian and avian hosts causing a broad spectrum of diseases. Coronaviruses have a single-stranded, positive-sense RNA genome and are classified into four genera of alpha-, beta-, gamma-, and deltacoronaviruses [1]. Coronaviruses are prone to mutation and recombination during replication and this propensity has contributed to the existing diversity of coronaviruses [2, 3]. Sudden emergence of new coronaviruses transmitted from animal hosts, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and, more recently, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), has raised awareness about the potential risks of highly virulent coronavirus infections in humans with increasing close contact between humans and animals harboring coronaviruses. However, effective therapeutic measures for coronavirus infections have been elusive so far despite the extensive efforts in the development of anti-coronavirus agents

[nullnor]

i tried to warn you guys about this for years. on the old board. senorsheep didn't believe me, and then after he reviewed the evidence, he actually agreed and said i might have something. that thread is gone now, but i said this over 15 years ago.

you just won't believe me. but i said this over a decade ago. and i don't anyone to tell me when i am right. but you are barking up the wrong tee. i was talking H5N1 at the time, way before H1N1 and now we have this new thing. i am not a broken clock either.

that's fine, you guys don't trust me. and i applaud that. i don't need any backup, i don't live that way. i don't need anyone. and this is not a told you so moment. you guys are in charge. i am just here to illuminate the terrain you are currently deployed on. what you do, it's up to you.

but this won't be the last time this happens. and next time it will be a lot worse. whether it's in you lifetime's or not. this will happen again sooner and with more frequency. whether you do something about now or later if up to 'you' or 'us'. but don't fool yourselves. you can't mess with nature. she owns us.

[nullnor]

i've been watching the show the 100 alot, it's a love hate relationship, it's a silly show, but it has somethings that are right. strife, mistakes, regroup. it's just life. we need all the luck we can get. i guess.

[nullnor]

i have a cat that i think has lung worm, it's very hyper. and i think it also has hyperthyroidism. i have to take it to the vet. but when you can tell something to go sit in the front seat of your 1978 440 RV, and she listens.

she endures more obstacles in life than you'll ever face. just so you now, a cat is smarter than you. we are just a bunch of douche bags trying to make a living. trying to explain how the world works according to our vision. i will choose my cat every time over you. it's not even a contest.

[nullnor]

Seitzer has the ability to graph this kind of stuff. the Gini coefficient or scale. poverty. the rate at whatever we are doing right now. it's a lot to ask seeing that no-one else in the world can do it. i guess it's easier to graph baseball and diseases, but if you can do that, you can graph economics, environment. you just have to find the right variables. i am not an engineer. i wouldn't know where to start. but you could do it. you need to know financial stuff. how much money is going up and down. hint how much money a few people have vs billions.

it's right in front of everyone's vision. sustainability. separate climate change from economics. maybe that's our problem, we think they are on one graph. neither are sustainable at the current pace. both are disasters in waiting. i would solve inequality first. that would lead to more empowerment.

it's a false argument, saying we destroy the environment to help heat and cool yourselves cheaper. no, you are poor because we give you no other choice.

this is our moment. but even in the face of disaster, no-one will see it. it's too complicated. it's better to be like me and hide in an RV. but you guys have the tools and education to figure it out if you want to. because i believe in you. it's all connected. it's just too much information. sustainability, environment, economics.

what was the climate change argument, we said yeah it's bad but science will find a miraculous answer and save everyone. whats the economic argument, yeah we'll just drop interest rates to zero, even now i see people calling for zero capital gains rates.

the answer is, ding ding, none of the answers is sustainability.

[nullnor]

if no-one can find an answer to that question than the answer is social Darwinism and natural selection. ..and maybe that's the answer. it's worked well for billions of years. perhaps we should ask, who are we to question it.

but it's just one world. we are like fish in a fish bowl arguing about which way to swim.

[Ken]

One time I went to the park with my kids and we had hot dogs for dinner over the fire. The dogs wanted me to give them the scraps but the guy next door called my name and said that we'd be better off under the trees. We moved the tent and the dog didn't like it so we moved it back. It made me think about relativity where we are all interrelated, and my girlfriend at the time wanted to move to another campsite. But I didn't give in, I know it was just a ploy to make sure that I voted for the libertarian.

We are all inter-related, everything connected, a butterfly flaps her wings and we all just do what she says. She likes to flap, and the more she flaps, the more the next door guy yells at me to go take the garbage out. And what can I do, the garbage stinks, so I gotta take it out. But where do I take it? We are in a campground and every time I take it to someone else's campsite they just walk it right back and the dogs growl.

Then it was all black, and I wandered through the woods until I ran into a man that had 3 heads. He was extra hairy because the more heads you have, the more hair you have. I thought it was a vision but the man next door said he was real. And he said my cat wasn't really my cat, it was really a liger from the zoo. So I took him to that zoo and the more I go to zoos the more I realize that we are all behind those bars and just waiting for someone to release us. But who has the key? And who asks us who has the key? If no one asks, will we ever get out?

By the way, my girlfriend wants to know if I'm real, but she was 20 years older than me so I told her it wasn't the right time for us and she moved on. But my kids, they had grown close to us so they were sad, and I had to feed them to the liger. But at least the liger wasn't hungry now, because he had the virus, and now we are all the same.

[nullnor]

One time I went to the park with my kids and we had hot dogs for dinner over the fire. The dogs wanted me to give them the scraps but the guy next door called my name and said that we'd be better off under the trees. We moved the tent and the dog didn't like it so we moved it back. It made me think about relativity where we are all interrelated, and my girlfriend at the time wanted to move to another campsite. But I didn't give in, I know it was just a ploy to make sure that I voted for the libertarian.

We are all inter-related, everything connected, a butterfly flaps her wings and we all just do what she says. She likes to flap, and the more she flaps, the more the next door guy yells at me to go take the garbage out. And what can I do, the garbage stinks, so I gotta take it out. But where do I take it? We are in a campground and every time I take it to someone else's campsite they just walk it right back and the dogs growl.

Then it was all black, and I wandered through the woods until I ran into a man that had 3 heads. He was extra hairy because the more heads you have, the more hair you have. I thought it was a vision but the man next door said he was real. And he said my cat wasn't really my cat, it was really a liger from the zoo. So I took him to that zoo and the more I go to zoos the more I realize that we are all behind those bars and just waiting for someone to release us. But who has the key? And who asks us who has the key? If no one asks, will we ever get out?

By the way, my girlfriend wants to know if I'm real, but she was 20 years older than me so I told her it wasn't the right time for us and she moved on. But my kids, they had grown close to us so they were sad, and I had to feed them to the liger. But at least the liger wasn't hungry now, because he had the virus, and now we are all the same.

you have a lot of potential.

[Sour Masher]

I can see this thread morphing into a Nullnor tribute thread. And I like it. Also, I'd forgotten it wasn't FS that first called out coronavirus on this site, it was nullnor ahead of the curve.

[Sour Masher]

Where does the name nullnor come from? Does it have any significance?