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As always, please use this as fodder for discussion. I'm sure I forgot one or three, so chime in there. The AL discussion was really fun, so please join in here!
NL STARTING PITCHERS
ARIZONA:
Madison Bumgarner – Listen, I’m going to lean favorably to anyone who can drink five beers simultaneously. Even if it is Budweiser. Lots to like last year – hit 200 IP and 200 K again, was more confident in his fastball, his slider was harder, and his curve and cutter became more effective. If he were in San Fran still, I’d like him with some improvement. But in Chase Field, I think the HR/9 increases, hurting mostly his ERA. It’s still pretty good, but I’m going for 4 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 180-190 Ks in 190 IP.
Robbie Ray – There’s red flags everywhere. His previously dominant velocity has diminished by two full ticks in two years; his slider is not progressing, and he simply walks too many. Steamer likes him to improve. I do not. 4.50 ERA, 1.35-1.40 WHIP, though he’ll still get you 200 K’s.
Mike Leake – There’s WYSIWIG dependability here, but that’s about it. He’ll give you 180-190 IP of 4.25 – 4.50 ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 130ish K’s.
Zac Gallen – If you have an appetite for risk and are shopping for good to great upside, Zac is your man. His complete arsenal of pitches and way he uses them reminds me of a young Zack Greinke. Increased velocity and improved control from 2018 to 2019, and improvement in velocity continued through 2019, though BB/9 hiccupped. Threw about 170 IP last year, so gloves should be off on innings restrictions. Chase Field punishes mistakes, so this might be jagged line improvement, but I like him for 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.28 – 1.30 WHIP, and 180 K’s.
Luke Weaver – Tantalizing talent flashed last year with 70ish really sweet innings. There’s serious arm talent here, but he’s also not hit 140 IP in well, forever. He’s the kind of guy I’d buy if there’s three or four better keeper lists in front of me in a league. His upside is yuuuuge – say, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a K per inning – but the likely outcome is 120 – 130 IP.
Merrill Kelly – Assuming Weaver’s arm doesn’t fall off in Spring Training, Kelly will move into a LR/swing role. Was an innings eater last year, consuming just over 180 IP with mediocre ratios and K rate. If he ends up back in the rotation, he’s essentially Mike Leake with a bit higher ERA and better K rate.
ATLANTA:
Mike Soroka – The Braves threw him into the rotation with very few AAA innings, but the 22-year old delivered, and delivered big. He’s not overpowering, and his ERA significantly outperformed FIP/xFIP/xERA. Some models are predicting pretty bad reversion; I just don’t think it’ll be that bad. Figure 3.25 – 3.50 ERA, 1.15-1.20 WHIP, and 7.5 Ks/9, likely running 150 – 160 Ks.
Cole Hamels – Throws his sub-optimal fastball just enough to set up his still excellent cutter and change, and he still features a decent curve. Velocity ticked down a bit, but is still in line to what he threw 7-10 years ago. Was pasted in the second half last year – just simply came back too soon from an oblique injury, which likely featured in his shoulder issues. He’s a 4 +/- ERA pitcher with a WHIP approaching 1.3 and a K per inning.
Max Fried – A tough call – gives up a lot of hard hit balls, but has really good GB rate. Good BB/K ratio, but BB/9 was best he’d done at any level. K rate significantly upticked in 2nd half; looks well-supported. Looks to have ditched his change and went to a plus slider; can bring his FB at 94+. I’m going to trust my eye test and FIP and go with 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 180 – 190 K’s.
Mike Foltynewicz – Sucked in ’15, ’17, and ’19, was good in ’16 and great in ’18 and improved in the second half last year. Has 95-96 MPH fastball, had a plus slider at one time, but is only K’ing about 7.5 per 9 IP, while walking 3 or a little more per 9 IP. For those old enough to remember, he’s like a reincarnation of Andrew Cashner. Going after Folty is like scoring the pretty good looking woman at the bar and then not using a condom – you might have hot sex, but you’re even more likely to get the clap, and it might be antibiotic resistant. I’m betting he’s fantasy clap – 4.50 ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 140 Ks.
Sean Newcomb – He has everything you’d like in a SP...except control. Unless there’s a late signing, should be given chance to win #5 SP slot. Worst case, from a counting numbers point of view, is back to the bullpen, but his ratios were quite good there. I like his floor a lot better than Folty’s – as a SP, 4.00-4.25 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and about 8.0 K’s/9 IP. With just a moderate control improvement, he could drop the ERA by 0.5 – 0.75 points and the WHIP down to about 1.25-1.27.
Touki Toussaint – This, sportsfans, is why really smart fantasy players like The Dane always quote “TINSTAAPP”. Touki went from next great thing, next Gerrit Cole, or at least best Atlanta pitcher since Smoltz finishing 2018 to radioactive waste finishing 2019. There’s no news of a serious arm injury, and his velocity actually increased in the 2nd half, so if you’re into post-hype opportunity, here’s a guy to go after.
CHICAGO:
Jon Lester – Held his BB/9 under 3, and definitely had bad BABIP luck. But his velocity is cratering, and at present he may struggle to touch 90 MPH. Has been turned into a pitcher who has a high ball%, high hard hit ball%, and declining strike%. He has been reliable health-wise, but if you buy him, that might be bad. Even with a more favorable turn in BABIP, you’re likely to get 170+ IP of WHIP category destruction with a 4.50ish ERA and 160ish K’s. And there’s downside.
Yu Darvish – It was the worst of times, it was the best of times. Wen from walking nearly everyone to walking almost no one. Who he didn’t walk seemed to hit home runs in the 1st half, HR/rate improved in second half. Post surgery 2nd half velocity was great. I’m bullish on him for 2020 – 3.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 240-250 K’s.
Kyle Hendricks – Lost 20-25 innings late in the season as the Cubs shut him down early with a minor shoulder issue. Add some value for the dependability of 180 – 200 IP, 3.5ish ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 150-160 K’s. He’s pretty WYSIWIG in a good way.
Jose Quintana – Did have some bad luck, but the ‘15/’16 version of Quintana is just not coming back. He’s now a proto-typical finesse lefty with marginal stuff, probably good for a 4.25 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 175 IP, and 150-160 K’s.
Tyler Chatwood – For a guy who has 95+ MPH velocity, he’s an amazingly non-dominant pitcher. Theoretically, will be given a chance to win #5 SP slot, but as good as he was in the bullpen in the 2nd half, I suspect he’ll go right back into the LR/swing role.
Alec Mills – Also competing for the #5 SP slot. Was pounded in AAA ball with a 5+ ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Cubs brought him up late, used as a LR/SP, and he responded with a very strong 2.75 ERA/1.11 WHIP. I just don’t see his 90 MPH fastball and non-dominant secondary stuff giving a sub-3 ERA and sub 1.15 WHIP again. In fact, I’d suspect Jose Quintana numbers are the more likely outcome if he doesn’t get pushed to the bullpen with the arrival of Aldolay.
Adbert Alzolay – Great stuff, but pitch location is a major challenge, leading to unacceptably high BB/9 rates. Given age, available options, and work still needed, most likely outcome is AAA ball. But if you’re into post-hype sleepers, the Cubs have possible slots opening up due to injury or suckitude.
CINCINNATI:
Luis Castillo – He of the thunderous stuff and wicked change put it together with a dominant 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and 226 K’s in 190+ IP. His second half ERA jumped, in what mostly appears to be a poor strand rate. His second half swinging K figures are absurdly high. And Cinci has upgraded their offense, assuming Swimming Pool Suarez isn’t critically hurt. Among the premium SPs in the NL that I’d pay the extra $5 to get, he’s it. I think he improves even further to a 3.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 240 Ks.
Trevor Bauer – One of the most unique personalities in baseball, he was dealt by Cleveland to Cinci near the deadline. When he left Cleveland, he had a good 3.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. After two months of bludgeoning while with Cincinnati, that increased to 4.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. No injury was reported, and his velocity didn’t change. Still has five pitches he’ll throw at just about any time. But his walk rate did increase to nearly 3.5 BB/9 and his GB/FB percentages almost flipped from his typical numbers. The combination of worse control and more fly balls led to a major jump in HR/9 (by almost 1) and more runners on base. All that said, 2018 looks like the outlier compared to all other years, and not 2019. I like his stuff and smarts, and see marginal improvement to a 4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 180-190 IP and 220-230 K’s.
Sonny Gray – It was a sunny day for those of us who had Sonny Gray last year. Based on highly favorable BABIP and strand rates (and bad ones in 2018), he’s neither as bad as 2018 nor as good as 2019. His pitch switches (ditching the cutter, more fastball/sliders) led to a consistently higher K rate that looks like it’ll settle in the 10 -10.5K/9 range. I can’t believe he’ll duplicate the sub-3 ERA and sub-1.1 WHIP, but he’ll still give you very good 3.5ish ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and 200 K’s.
Anthony DeSclafani – The frequently misspelled one put together a really good year and excellent second half. Saw velocity uptick to 94-95 MPH. BABIP was low in second half, but increased GB rate by more than 10 points; an important issue in the Great American Homer Park. I think he has a very good chance of throwing very similar numbers to last year – 4 ERA or a bit below, 1.22 WHIP, 170-175 IP and K’s.
Wade Miley – He had just over a season of really good pitching – mid-2018 to August 2019. And then he crashed and burned the last six weeks of the 2019 season. If you believe fatigue was the issue – and at the start of August, he was trending for many more IP than he’d thrown in ’17 and ’18 – then he’s a good buying opportunity. OTOH, I just don’t think there’s much upside to a pitcher who lives and dies with a 87 MPH cutter; though I don’t think it’ll be as ugly as many predict. Put me down for a 4.00-4.25 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 140 K’s on 7.5 K/9.
Tyler Mahle – Has a 2-year record of an ERA around 5 and a punishing 1.7 HR/9 rate. My eye test says he should be better than that, and there were some signs of improvement last year – BB rate dropped to a respectable 2.4 BB/9, GB rate consistently increased as year went on. He’s likely bullpen or trade bound for Cincinnati; if he gets dealt to a park that would be more HR forgiving, there could be some real upside here.
COLORADO:
German Marquez – Already well-documented on RJ, really good away numbers and bad to turrrble at home. Improvement in control to very good 2.0 BB/9 is a plus. Obviously, and ideal guy to have with deeper benches or daily plays. For an all-year team that can’t shuttle him in and out, he’s going to be around a 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 200 K’s.
Jon Gray – Really was in a comeback year with exceptional numbers at Coors. When he’s right, his plus 95-96 MPH fastball sets up a premium slider. Lost a number of weeks to a foot fracture, so his arm is sound. In order to hold that sub-4 ERA this year, I think he needs to get his BB/9 back in the 2.7-2.8 area. I’m valuing him at 170-180 IP, 170-180 K’s, 4 ERA, and 1.32 WHIP. With some moderate upside with control improvement.
Kyle Freeland – A left hander who can’t touch 92 MPH in Coors? I think we kinda all knew that 2018 was a shimmering illusion; what we didn’t know was that oceans of fantasy toxic waste lay below the shimmering illusion. Yeah, the strand rate was unlucky, and if the Rockies give him innings, there’ll likely be marginal improvement. But marginal improvement will still be fantasy toxic waste.
Antonio Senzatela – Sentazela means “without canvas” in Italian. In fantasy terms, that should mean “without roster”.
LOS ANGELES:
Clayton Kershaw – Trend lines are all bad – diminishing fastball and slider velocity, more BB/9, more HR/9. I mean, he’s still Clayton Kershaw so it’s not going to be terrible, but a 3.25 -3.40 ERA, 1.07 -1.1 WHIP, and 170 K’s would be all I’d pay for.
Walker Buehler – Among premium SPs, Buehler seems to be second only to Chris Sale on diversity of opinion. Paul Sporer – who I will strongly recommend every serious fantasy player reads – has him immediately below the holy quartet of Verlander, deGrom, Scherzer, and Cole. I’ve seen him rated from there down to about the 18th best SP. I really like him, though not to Paul Sporer’s level. He commands a 96-97 MPH fastball very well, has two quality second pitches, and there’s a confidence level I like. Put me down for a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 230 K’s.
Kenta Maeda – Dodgers moved him to the bullpen late in the season, where he fared quite well. May go back since the Dodgers have a lot of options, but I think he starts as the #3/4 SP. He’ll get the most out of his stuff as long as he starts – expect a 4ish ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and one K per inning.
Julio Urias – Again, check out the RJ thread on him. The man with the coolest uncool glasses in baseball spent most of 2019 in the bullpen, with most of his starts coming in April. He did have a jump in BB/9 in the second half, but I think he’ll get a starting role out of the gate. The risk with Urias will be a potential innings limit, but I think he’ll deliver a pretty yummy 3.25 – 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 150 Ks in 140 IP.
Alex Wood – Started season late, and those counting on him to help their teams in August/September were treated to a 5.80 ERA/1.40 WHIP dumpster fire. Had significant back issues that came back at end of year. He may win a SP role coming out of Spring Training, and many will buy based on his ‘17/18 stats and talent. But bad backs lead to extended DL stints, poor performance or both. I’m avoiding.
Ross Stripling – There’s nothing in his arsenal that’s great, though he does own a good/plus curve. But he’s consistently delivered 90-120 IP in the LR/swing role, and he’s done so with a solid 3.50ish ERA, 1.17ish WHIP, and a bit over a K per inning. I think he’ll tend toward the higher end of that IP total this year.
Dustin May – The uber-prospect arrived in August, was perilously close to being killed by a batted ball, and still put together a handful of starts and a couple handfuls of bullpen outings. He has a 96 MPH fastball, cutter, and curve. His major league control and low HR/9 were similar to his minor league numbers. Threw about 140 IP total last year, so if the Dodgers want the IP gloves to come off, they pretty much can. I’m betting the Dodgers send him down to screw with his arb…I mean, get more seasoning, and then bring him up once Alex Wood fails physically or statistically or both. For this year only, I’m predicting 3.50 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 120-130 K’s. If the Dodgers surprise and bring him up right away, add another 55-65 K’s onto that total.
MIAMI:
Caleb Smith – As the excellent RJ thread noted, he was in full breakout mode before hip injury moved him to full disaster mode. If healthy, he can get you 2.7 – 3.0 BB/9, 11-12 K’s/9, mid to upper 3’s ERA, and a 1.1 WHIP. Given how he went from awesome to pumpkin so quickly, if you buy him, monitor his injury status closely.
Sandy Alcantara – Guy who most surprised me when I dug into his stuff and 2019 season. He has a 95+ MPH fastball, slider, change and curve. Was a work in progress who actually made a lot of progress. Dropped his walk rate from over 4 BB/9 to 3.2 BB/9 from first to second half. K rate increased from 6.2 to 7.8/9 IP. WHIP dropped from 1.40 to 1.23. Was near-dominant last two months. At only 24 years old with this stuff, I think his trajectory is up, even beyond the 4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 160 K’s even if he plateaus at 2019 second half levels.
Jose Urena – Another pitcher with back issues, though there wasn’t much good going on before the injury, either. Walks 2.5 – 2.8 per 9, K’s 6.5 – 6.8/9, and in 2019, a bad BABIP and strand rate blew him out of the water as a SP. Finished in the bullpen, and may stay there. That said, the Marlins don’t have much in the way of ready options, so I suspect he’ll go back to a SP role to start the year. But the Marlins do have a couple options if they want to trade Urena or keep him in the pen.
Pablo Lopez – Another young Marlins arm, just with nowhere near the upside of Smith or Alcantara. Was crushed in the second half with a disaster combination of high BABIP and really bad strand rate and what appeared to be shoulder issues. Healthy, he’s likely a solid innings eater type of 4.25 – 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 130-140 K’s, but with upside.
Jordan Yamamoto – I followed him when he was in the Brewers organization, and there had to be few more surprised than me when he threw shutouts for his first two outings. Lack of control bit him hard over his final nine starts, but minor league numbers indicate that should improve. However, the bad news is that .225 BABIP just ain’t skill induced and regression will probably bite hard. He probably won’t hurt you in WHIP, but an ERA of about 4.50 is likely. Figure 150-160 K’s.
Elieser Hernandez – First half was great; second half not. Still major improvement overall from 2018. His BB/9 was a major improvement to just under 3; his K rate up to just about 10K/9 IP. Had very good results over final month. That said, his stuff is even more pedestrian that Yamamoto’s or Lopez’s, he gives up a ton of fly balls, and an already high-ish HR/9 could go really bad.
MILWAUKEE:
Brandon Woodruff – Has had two major oblique injuries in four years; has yet to cross 125 IP in a year. Health is clearly the biggest risk. But the stuff is nothing less than incredible – an explosive fastball with excellent control, solid slider, and improving change. Cut walks to 2.3 BB/9, K rate up to about 10.5/9 IP; WHIP somewhere in the mid 1.1’s is likely. Innings will drive value, but he’s another guy I’m buying if I don’t have the best keeper list for the upside opportunity.
Adrian Houser – Struggled early, sent to the bullpen for remainder of first half. Starter in second half, with an ERA in the Mid-3’s and a 1.1ish WHIP. Fastball dominant pitcher, improved his control as a SP to 2.4 BB/9. Threw a little over 130 IP last year, so will likely be constrained to 170-180 IP; however, he’s unlikely to hit that barrier with Counsell’s style of bullpen management. He’s an under the radar guy who can get you 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 160 K’s.
Brett Anderson – From two power pitchers to a finesse lefty with questionable health history. Pitch to contact guy who hardly strikes anyone out – and going from the fairly cavernous Athletics stadium to Miller Park makes my insides squirm. Much as I like David Stearns, I just don’t think this will end well – 4.50 – 5.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and only 70-90 Ks. And that’s if he stays healthy.
Eric Lauer – Another lefty without overpowering stuff, though significantly better than Anderson. Changed pitch strategy in second half, which led to more K’s, but also a 3.8 BB/9 rate and a lot more flyballs. His pitch strategy in second half aligned more with typical Brewer strategy; I suspect they saw something in Lauer that could be improved with same conceptual pitching plan. I still see him as a 4.25 – 4.50 ERA pitcher with about a 1.3 WHIP, though K rate looks like it could increase Ks to the 150-160 range.
Josh Lindblom – This is some career path and potential story. While in Korea, scouts show him developing a very good splitter and good cutter. His pitch mix, velocity, and style all indicate to me that Counsell will use him in a manner very similar to Davies – twice through the lineup, and then a fairly quick hook. Should lead to good ratios, but will limit wins and K’s. 4ish or a touch lower ERA and 1.25 WHIP will be sandwiched by limited wins and only 120-130 K’s.
Corbin Burnes – And in the topic of post-hype sleepers, we have Burnes. Was a HR serving machine last year; I swear Yasiel Puig hit one that the Air Force tried to capture and put in Area 51. But he has a power arm, and was once the top Brewer pitching prospect not that long ago. Don’t buy/draft him, but watch for potential FAAB/waiver wire pickup if gopheritits is fixed.
NEW YORK:
Jacob deGrom - That deGrom is 21-17 over 2018-2019 and Mike Fiers is 27-11 in the same timeframe is an unanswerable sphinx like mystery. He’s almost bankable to deliver low 2’s ERA, sub 1.0 WHIP, and 250-270 K’s…and seemingly 11 W’s. Buy the ratios and Ks and hope that every dog has its day and the Mets actually hit for deGrom. I’ll actually take deGrom in the first round of my 12-team mixed redraft league, if he makes it to me at 9.
Noah Syndergaard – The Thunder God met the baseball equivalent of Hela last year on a regular basis, leading to a disappointing 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and just over 200 Ks. On the plus side, he was healthy for almost 200 IP. He sill has premium velocity, a power slider, and decent control at about 2.3 BB/9 for two years running. For years, I thought he was over-rated, but last years numbers will potentially drive him to a value where I’m interested. I think he’ll settle in a 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 190-210 Ks, and his stuff has upside.
Marcus Stroman – Totally overhauled pitch selection and batter strategy, now cutter/curve heavy with a 92-93 MPH fastball sprinkled in; all while throwing higher in the zone. Pitch mix would seem to play very well in Shea. BB/9 and K/9 remained pretty consistent at 2.8 and 7.5, respectively, which seems pretty bankable. IMO, Shea will help his ERA, so I’m looking at a mid-3s ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 160-170 Ks.
Steven Matz – Threw more sliders and changeups, but didn’t fundamentally change statistical outcomes. He’s a 4.25ish ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 8.5-9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 pitcher. There’s just not a lot of upside, though it’s a not terrible floor.
Rick Porcello – Learned the lesson of Baron Mordo “The bill comes due, always”. Lower K rate, higher HR/9 and terrible strand rate combined to torch his ratios and owners. Velocity remains about the same, and escaping Fenway and the AL East for the more favorable environs of the NL and Shea should allow for a recovery to a still not that great 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 160 K’s.
Michael Wacha – Likely LR/swingman role for the Mets. BABIP normalized, and his mistakes were drilled to a 1.85 HR/9 rate. BB/9 of nearly 4 is unacceptable, and velocity is down 1-2 MPH from peak years of ’15 and ’17. And he has a record of dicey health and is now on the Mets – I mean, what could possibly go wrong? But if he gains back that velocity to 94-95, he’s worth a FAAB or waiver pick investment.
PHILADELPHIA:
Aaron Nola – We have a guy who made up a song called “Nola” to the tune of the Kinks “Lola” song. Hurt the owners who paid for premium #1 SP – BABIP normalized, walk rate jumped by more than one per nine innings to 3.56 BB/9, HR/9 and HR/FB increased by about 70% from 2018. On the plus side, velocity continues to ramp up and K rate increased to over 10/9 IP. Metrics indicate his walk rate will improve moderately, and that alone gives me confidence in improvement to 3.50 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 220-230 K’s. But 2018 isn’t coming back without serious BABIP and strand rate luck again.
Jake Arrieta – Injuries, walk rate, and HR/FB all incresing. Cleaning out the bone spurs he pitched through last year may arrest the decline, but there’s just not a lot out there that points to better than a 4.50 ERA, 1.4ish WHIP, and 130-140 K’s
Vince Velasquez – BB/9 made another step forward, K’s nice at 10/9 IP, velocity is good. But he gives up too many squarely hit FB’s, leading to an ERA-crushing 2.0 HR/9 rate. There’s not a lot in the metrics that point to a significant improvement, so ignore all the “VV looks great” stories in Spring Training, and let someone else draft or buy the 4.50 – 5.00 ERA and mid 1.3s WHIP…with downside.
Zack Wheeler – The Phillies paid scads of money for this Zack; he has a three year trend of polishing his BB/9; it is now 2.3 BB/9. Velocity continues to ramp up, hitting 95-97; in fact, I found it interesting that Wheeler’s slider was 1.5 MPH faster than Thor’s. K rate has reached one per inning. If he doesn’t freak out with the big contract, his stuff indicates further improvement to 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and about 200 K’s.
Zach Eflin – K rate decreased by 1.5 K/9 IP to just over 7 Ks/9. HR/9 jumped to over 1.5/9. BB/9 was essentially the same, as was BABIP. So, of course, his ERA…decreased. FIP/xFIP/xERA all say it’s a mirage. So don’t Eflin yourself and take on the 4.50 – 5.00 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, and only 120-130 Ks.
PITTSBURGH:
Chris Archer – Storied history of underperforming FIP, xFIP, xERA and just about any other similar metric, but he was at least dependable for 200 IP and 230+ Ks. Two seasons in a row of under 150 IP – plus shoulder trouble last year – drop his value significantly. 2019 was a disaster due to the above, and a thumb injury that damaged his control. There’s some positives that came out of the second half that point to improvement to a level of about 4.25 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 185 K’s. And since he’s with the Pirates, that could mean as little as 6 – 8 wins.
Joe Musgrove – Good Joe is a dominant stud with no runners on. Bad Joe has trouble getting people out with runners on. Showed nice improvement in BB/9 and K/9 in the second half. Pay for the 4.25 ERA and low 1.2s WHIP and 160 Ks, and recognize there’s upside if he can fix his strand rate issue.
Trevor Williams – Was pitching OK until oblique injury late in the first half, and then his season went on the express lane to hell. Has capability to hit low 4’s ERA, 1.3 WHIP and 120ish Ks, but margin for error is razor thin, and if it goes bad, it goes really bad.
Mitch Keller – Go for post-hype sleeper money on Keller. Blistered while up in limited innings, the BABIP and strand rates were ridiculously bad. Had quality K/9 and decent BB/9, and stuff points to a much better outcome. I’d be surprised if he’s not the best Pirate pitcher by the end of the year. I’m going with a flat 4 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 160 IP, and 170-175 Ks.
Stephen Brault – Those who had him in 2017 may be blinded by the awfulness of the last two years. He’s a ratio-wrecking machine that should not even sniff your roster.
Jameson Taillon – Out for 2020, but if your league allows you enough DL slots, he’s a worthy stash.
SAN DIEGO:
Chris Paddack – Every once in a while, Spring Training actually means something. Great 2019 ST lead to rotation spot, which he turned into ratio studliness. Had highly favorable BABIP, at least some of this was earned by some of the best numbers in barrel% and exit velocity. I do think there will be some minor roto regression, but the innings gloves comes off. 3.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 190 Ks on 175 IP is where I think he’ll end up.
Joey Lucchesi – Could well be on the Red Sox soon, and that would be bad. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who hits 89-91 MPH on his fastball, but throws a variety of reasonably effective secondary pitches. In Petco, that would lead to a low 4s ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 160 Ks. If dealt to Fenway look at his away splits from Petco; so it’ll probably be ugly.
Garrett RIchards – I had him cheap in his last good year, 2015, and he helped me win a championship. But I can’t watch him anymore since I’m convinced that the next slider he throws will make his elbow explode. I don’t even think he’ll give you Rich Hill level innings. I hope I’m wrong, but I’d only tak him if I could move on to a decent MR with minimal penalty.
Dinelson Lamet – Also see the RJ thread talking about him. Came off TJ surgery throwing smoke, piling up almost 13K/9 IP. Walk rate is still a problem, and the ball% certainly points to continued 3.5 – 4.0 BB/9. I’m suspecting the Pads will pull the innings chute around 140 IP, but that could still add up to about 165 Ks, upper 3s ERA, and mid to upper 1.2s WHIP. He’s being pimped by just about every magazine and writer as a breakout candidate, so you likely won’t get him cheap – but it still might be the last year you can get him at a reasonable price.
Zach Davies – Escape from Miller Park!! Truly a finesse lefty who goes 87-89 on his fastball. Other than his shoulder-limited 2018 season, he’s held ERA under 4.00 despite FIP/xFIP flashing lights. I don’t think the ERA will improve much, but WHIP could move a bit better if he feels confident enough to nibble less and throw more strikes. He’s likely good for 170 IP at a 4 ERA and 1.3 WHIP and 100 – 110 Ks.
Cal Quantrill – Also could well be Red Sox bound, if not, will likely start in LR/swing role in San Diego. Has 94-95 MPH fastball, quality slider, and two other dicey secondary pitches. There’s some good raw material here, but doesn’t seem really close to putting it together.
SAN FRANCISCO:
Johnny Cueto – With him, Spring Training matters. See the Injured Pitchers thread for more. But if he reaches 93 MPH in Spring Training, I think he’s got very high upside. At 91-92, I’d still endgame him. If he can’t touch 90, stay away.
Jeff Samadzjia – Shiny ERA and WHIP in 2019, and stunningly good 2nd half ratios. If you jump in this pool, don’t be surprised if it looks like the one in the Twenty One Pilots “Chlorine” video, complete with hallucinations. The BABIP is unsustainable, strand rate unusually high, and velocity barely touches 92 now. The K/9 is following velocity on a downward trend. The bill will come due in 2020, with payment being a 4.50ish ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 130-140 Ks.
Drew Smyly – While I have little faith he can stay healthy, he did put together a decent run over a dozen starts with the Phillies last year, including a very good September with a 3.65 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 over five starts, with only one clunker. San Fran’s a favorable pitchers park, but even with that, I don’t have the intestinal fortitude to make even an endgame play on him.
Kevin Gausman – The Gascan lived up to his nickname as a SP early in the season. Did better in the bullpen, and pitches sure seem to indicate that’s his likely best role. But if the Giants start him, figure a 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 8-9 Ks/9 IP.
Logan Webb – Will SF start the prospect? If so, must improve control to be successful – present ball rate points to a 3.5 BB/9 rate, and I think he’ll get crushed walking that many. He’s one young pitcher I’m not buying.
ST LOUIS:
Jack Flaherty – Not very good first half followed by monster second half. BB/9 went down, K/9 went up, velocity ticked up, and supporting metrics for BB/9 and K/9 support the gains. But no matter how good he is, those BABIP and strand rate numbers from the second half are unsustainable. But the net-net likely comes out similar to the totals from all of last year – 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 225-235 Ks.
Miles Mikolas – Premium control, but had very normal BABIP and strand rates in 2019. He’s hittable, and just looks to be a 4ish ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 180-200 IP, 140-150 K pitcher.
Adam Wainwright – Written off for dead after 2017 – including by me – he put together a respectable 2019 with 14 Wins, low 4s ERA, and 150 Ks. But the control of 3.4 BB/9 and hittable stuff led to a hideous 1.43 WHIP. An ERA of 4.50 and 1.4+ WHIP will be pretty destructive to your ratios. And there’s much more downside than upside.
Dakota Hudson – Think of him as a young Dallas Keuchel with much worse control. Worse yet, his control deteriorated to really hideous levels in the second half. The odds of him pitching to a respectable ERA this year with a 5 BB/9 walk rate are slim at best. The bill gets paid this year, with a jump to 4.75 – 5.00 ERA and nearly 1.5 WHIP.
Carlos Martinez – Said to be preparing to start, the man with the electric arm and previously cavalier off-season program is certain to be one of those who is “in the best shape of his life” going into Spring Training. Actually, it’ll probably be true for CMart this year. I like him for a 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, low 1.2s WHIP, and a K per inning. I’d not spend extra to get him since he hasn’t thrown 120 IP for a couple years.
Kwang Hyun-Kim – Reported to have quality stuff, especially a plus slider. Eric Thames spoke highly of him in an interview after he signed with the Cards. Project for 2.7 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 4 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 150-170 Ks.
Genesis Cabrera – Another post-hype type guy, as his numbers were turrble last year. But if you’re looking for a minor leaguer to stash with a huge arm, he’s your guy. Could be starting or closing in two years.
Daniel Ponce de Leon – Somehow put together quality ratios with terrible control (almost 5 BB/9) in LR/swing role. His stuff is better than pedestrian, but certainly nowhere near good enough to susutain those ratios at that walk rate.
WASHINGTON:
Max Scherzer – The first cracks showed in the armor last year, with injuries cutting short his second half. That meant his overall year was merely excellent instead of otherworldly. Given that he’s in his mid-30s, I would take Cole and deGrom in front of him in a mixed league, and I’d have to think hard on Verlander. But I think he returns to 2017-like stats – 200 IP, 250-260 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.
Stephen Strasburg – For the first time in memory, Stras stayed healthy for 200+ IP. And he delivered Stras-like goodness for the whole year; then morphed into SuperStras for the playoffs. He always seems to deliver on a 3.25ish ERA, 1.05ish WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and almost 11 Ks/9. You just have to decide how many innings he’ll deliver. I’m bidding based on 175-180 IP.
Patrick Corbin – Ramped up his evil slider usage, his arm survived, and he continues to crank out really good numbers. WHIP ticked up a bit, but I still like him for 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 200 IP and 230-240 Ks.
Anibel Sanchez – This is the second year after being left for dead leaving Detroit that he’s provided serviceable ERA/WHIP/Ks. He has veteran savvy and not a lot else left. I just don’t think the FIP/xFIP/xERA are lying, and it’s going to slide to a 4.50+ ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and Washington cutting bait at the trade deadline.
Joe Ross – Well, that was an ugly return off TJ surgery, but on the good side, his velocity was back in the 93-94 MPH range. With a sound arm, he should improve back to Ross like numbers around 4.25-4.50 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9.
Austin Voth – Numbers don’t jump off the page, and eye test says his stuff is good but not great. But showed solid improvement in the second half, good control in the mid-2sBB/9 IP, and a decent K rate around 8 K/9. Not sure if he or Ross will slot into #5SP, but if he goes to LR/swing, you could get him cheap and he can deliver value.
NL STARTING PITCHERS
ARIZONA:
Madison Bumgarner – Listen, I’m going to lean favorably to anyone who can drink five beers simultaneously. Even if it is Budweiser. Lots to like last year – hit 200 IP and 200 K again, was more confident in his fastball, his slider was harder, and his curve and cutter became more effective. If he were in San Fran still, I’d like him with some improvement. But in Chase Field, I think the HR/9 increases, hurting mostly his ERA. It’s still pretty good, but I’m going for 4 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 180-190 Ks in 190 IP.
Robbie Ray – There’s red flags everywhere. His previously dominant velocity has diminished by two full ticks in two years; his slider is not progressing, and he simply walks too many. Steamer likes him to improve. I do not. 4.50 ERA, 1.35-1.40 WHIP, though he’ll still get you 200 K’s.
Mike Leake – There’s WYSIWIG dependability here, but that’s about it. He’ll give you 180-190 IP of 4.25 – 4.50 ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 130ish K’s.
Zac Gallen – If you have an appetite for risk and are shopping for good to great upside, Zac is your man. His complete arsenal of pitches and way he uses them reminds me of a young Zack Greinke. Increased velocity and improved control from 2018 to 2019, and improvement in velocity continued through 2019, though BB/9 hiccupped. Threw about 170 IP last year, so gloves should be off on innings restrictions. Chase Field punishes mistakes, so this might be jagged line improvement, but I like him for 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.28 – 1.30 WHIP, and 180 K’s.
Luke Weaver – Tantalizing talent flashed last year with 70ish really sweet innings. There’s serious arm talent here, but he’s also not hit 140 IP in well, forever. He’s the kind of guy I’d buy if there’s three or four better keeper lists in front of me in a league. His upside is yuuuuge – say, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a K per inning – but the likely outcome is 120 – 130 IP.
Merrill Kelly – Assuming Weaver’s arm doesn’t fall off in Spring Training, Kelly will move into a LR/swing role. Was an innings eater last year, consuming just over 180 IP with mediocre ratios and K rate. If he ends up back in the rotation, he’s essentially Mike Leake with a bit higher ERA and better K rate.
ATLANTA:
Mike Soroka – The Braves threw him into the rotation with very few AAA innings, but the 22-year old delivered, and delivered big. He’s not overpowering, and his ERA significantly outperformed FIP/xFIP/xERA. Some models are predicting pretty bad reversion; I just don’t think it’ll be that bad. Figure 3.25 – 3.50 ERA, 1.15-1.20 WHIP, and 7.5 Ks/9, likely running 150 – 160 Ks.
Cole Hamels – Throws his sub-optimal fastball just enough to set up his still excellent cutter and change, and he still features a decent curve. Velocity ticked down a bit, but is still in line to what he threw 7-10 years ago. Was pasted in the second half last year – just simply came back too soon from an oblique injury, which likely featured in his shoulder issues. He’s a 4 +/- ERA pitcher with a WHIP approaching 1.3 and a K per inning.
Max Fried – A tough call – gives up a lot of hard hit balls, but has really good GB rate. Good BB/K ratio, but BB/9 was best he’d done at any level. K rate significantly upticked in 2nd half; looks well-supported. Looks to have ditched his change and went to a plus slider; can bring his FB at 94+. I’m going to trust my eye test and FIP and go with 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 180 – 190 K’s.
Mike Foltynewicz – Sucked in ’15, ’17, and ’19, was good in ’16 and great in ’18 and improved in the second half last year. Has 95-96 MPH fastball, had a plus slider at one time, but is only K’ing about 7.5 per 9 IP, while walking 3 or a little more per 9 IP. For those old enough to remember, he’s like a reincarnation of Andrew Cashner. Going after Folty is like scoring the pretty good looking woman at the bar and then not using a condom – you might have hot sex, but you’re even more likely to get the clap, and it might be antibiotic resistant. I’m betting he’s fantasy clap – 4.50 ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 140 Ks.
Sean Newcomb – He has everything you’d like in a SP...except control. Unless there’s a late signing, should be given chance to win #5 SP slot. Worst case, from a counting numbers point of view, is back to the bullpen, but his ratios were quite good there. I like his floor a lot better than Folty’s – as a SP, 4.00-4.25 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and about 8.0 K’s/9 IP. With just a moderate control improvement, he could drop the ERA by 0.5 – 0.75 points and the WHIP down to about 1.25-1.27.
Touki Toussaint – This, sportsfans, is why really smart fantasy players like The Dane always quote “TINSTAAPP”. Touki went from next great thing, next Gerrit Cole, or at least best Atlanta pitcher since Smoltz finishing 2018 to radioactive waste finishing 2019. There’s no news of a serious arm injury, and his velocity actually increased in the 2nd half, so if you’re into post-hype opportunity, here’s a guy to go after.
CHICAGO:
Jon Lester – Held his BB/9 under 3, and definitely had bad BABIP luck. But his velocity is cratering, and at present he may struggle to touch 90 MPH. Has been turned into a pitcher who has a high ball%, high hard hit ball%, and declining strike%. He has been reliable health-wise, but if you buy him, that might be bad. Even with a more favorable turn in BABIP, you’re likely to get 170+ IP of WHIP category destruction with a 4.50ish ERA and 160ish K’s. And there’s downside.
Yu Darvish – It was the worst of times, it was the best of times. Wen from walking nearly everyone to walking almost no one. Who he didn’t walk seemed to hit home runs in the 1st half, HR/rate improved in second half. Post surgery 2nd half velocity was great. I’m bullish on him for 2020 – 3.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 240-250 K’s.
Kyle Hendricks – Lost 20-25 innings late in the season as the Cubs shut him down early with a minor shoulder issue. Add some value for the dependability of 180 – 200 IP, 3.5ish ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 150-160 K’s. He’s pretty WYSIWIG in a good way.
Jose Quintana – Did have some bad luck, but the ‘15/’16 version of Quintana is just not coming back. He’s now a proto-typical finesse lefty with marginal stuff, probably good for a 4.25 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 175 IP, and 150-160 K’s.
Tyler Chatwood – For a guy who has 95+ MPH velocity, he’s an amazingly non-dominant pitcher. Theoretically, will be given a chance to win #5 SP slot, but as good as he was in the bullpen in the 2nd half, I suspect he’ll go right back into the LR/swing role.
Alec Mills – Also competing for the #5 SP slot. Was pounded in AAA ball with a 5+ ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Cubs brought him up late, used as a LR/SP, and he responded with a very strong 2.75 ERA/1.11 WHIP. I just don’t see his 90 MPH fastball and non-dominant secondary stuff giving a sub-3 ERA and sub 1.15 WHIP again. In fact, I’d suspect Jose Quintana numbers are the more likely outcome if he doesn’t get pushed to the bullpen with the arrival of Aldolay.
Adbert Alzolay – Great stuff, but pitch location is a major challenge, leading to unacceptably high BB/9 rates. Given age, available options, and work still needed, most likely outcome is AAA ball. But if you’re into post-hype sleepers, the Cubs have possible slots opening up due to injury or suckitude.
CINCINNATI:
Luis Castillo – He of the thunderous stuff and wicked change put it together with a dominant 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and 226 K’s in 190+ IP. His second half ERA jumped, in what mostly appears to be a poor strand rate. His second half swinging K figures are absurdly high. And Cinci has upgraded their offense, assuming Swimming Pool Suarez isn’t critically hurt. Among the premium SPs in the NL that I’d pay the extra $5 to get, he’s it. I think he improves even further to a 3.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 240 Ks.
Trevor Bauer – One of the most unique personalities in baseball, he was dealt by Cleveland to Cinci near the deadline. When he left Cleveland, he had a good 3.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. After two months of bludgeoning while with Cincinnati, that increased to 4.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. No injury was reported, and his velocity didn’t change. Still has five pitches he’ll throw at just about any time. But his walk rate did increase to nearly 3.5 BB/9 and his GB/FB percentages almost flipped from his typical numbers. The combination of worse control and more fly balls led to a major jump in HR/9 (by almost 1) and more runners on base. All that said, 2018 looks like the outlier compared to all other years, and not 2019. I like his stuff and smarts, and see marginal improvement to a 4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 180-190 IP and 220-230 K’s.
Sonny Gray – It was a sunny day for those of us who had Sonny Gray last year. Based on highly favorable BABIP and strand rates (and bad ones in 2018), he’s neither as bad as 2018 nor as good as 2019. His pitch switches (ditching the cutter, more fastball/sliders) led to a consistently higher K rate that looks like it’ll settle in the 10 -10.5K/9 range. I can’t believe he’ll duplicate the sub-3 ERA and sub-1.1 WHIP, but he’ll still give you very good 3.5ish ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and 200 K’s.
Anthony DeSclafani – The frequently misspelled one put together a really good year and excellent second half. Saw velocity uptick to 94-95 MPH. BABIP was low in second half, but increased GB rate by more than 10 points; an important issue in the Great American Homer Park. I think he has a very good chance of throwing very similar numbers to last year – 4 ERA or a bit below, 1.22 WHIP, 170-175 IP and K’s.
Wade Miley – He had just over a season of really good pitching – mid-2018 to August 2019. And then he crashed and burned the last six weeks of the 2019 season. If you believe fatigue was the issue – and at the start of August, he was trending for many more IP than he’d thrown in ’17 and ’18 – then he’s a good buying opportunity. OTOH, I just don’t think there’s much upside to a pitcher who lives and dies with a 87 MPH cutter; though I don’t think it’ll be as ugly as many predict. Put me down for a 4.00-4.25 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 140 K’s on 7.5 K/9.
Tyler Mahle – Has a 2-year record of an ERA around 5 and a punishing 1.7 HR/9 rate. My eye test says he should be better than that, and there were some signs of improvement last year – BB rate dropped to a respectable 2.4 BB/9, GB rate consistently increased as year went on. He’s likely bullpen or trade bound for Cincinnati; if he gets dealt to a park that would be more HR forgiving, there could be some real upside here.
COLORADO:
German Marquez – Already well-documented on RJ, really good away numbers and bad to turrrble at home. Improvement in control to very good 2.0 BB/9 is a plus. Obviously, and ideal guy to have with deeper benches or daily plays. For an all-year team that can’t shuttle him in and out, he’s going to be around a 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 200 K’s.
Jon Gray – Really was in a comeback year with exceptional numbers at Coors. When he’s right, his plus 95-96 MPH fastball sets up a premium slider. Lost a number of weeks to a foot fracture, so his arm is sound. In order to hold that sub-4 ERA this year, I think he needs to get his BB/9 back in the 2.7-2.8 area. I’m valuing him at 170-180 IP, 170-180 K’s, 4 ERA, and 1.32 WHIP. With some moderate upside with control improvement.
Kyle Freeland – A left hander who can’t touch 92 MPH in Coors? I think we kinda all knew that 2018 was a shimmering illusion; what we didn’t know was that oceans of fantasy toxic waste lay below the shimmering illusion. Yeah, the strand rate was unlucky, and if the Rockies give him innings, there’ll likely be marginal improvement. But marginal improvement will still be fantasy toxic waste.
Antonio Senzatela – Sentazela means “without canvas” in Italian. In fantasy terms, that should mean “without roster”.
LOS ANGELES:
Clayton Kershaw – Trend lines are all bad – diminishing fastball and slider velocity, more BB/9, more HR/9. I mean, he’s still Clayton Kershaw so it’s not going to be terrible, but a 3.25 -3.40 ERA, 1.07 -1.1 WHIP, and 170 K’s would be all I’d pay for.
Walker Buehler – Among premium SPs, Buehler seems to be second only to Chris Sale on diversity of opinion. Paul Sporer – who I will strongly recommend every serious fantasy player reads – has him immediately below the holy quartet of Verlander, deGrom, Scherzer, and Cole. I’ve seen him rated from there down to about the 18th best SP. I really like him, though not to Paul Sporer’s level. He commands a 96-97 MPH fastball very well, has two quality second pitches, and there’s a confidence level I like. Put me down for a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 230 K’s.
Kenta Maeda – Dodgers moved him to the bullpen late in the season, where he fared quite well. May go back since the Dodgers have a lot of options, but I think he starts as the #3/4 SP. He’ll get the most out of his stuff as long as he starts – expect a 4ish ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and one K per inning.
Julio Urias – Again, check out the RJ thread on him. The man with the coolest uncool glasses in baseball spent most of 2019 in the bullpen, with most of his starts coming in April. He did have a jump in BB/9 in the second half, but I think he’ll get a starting role out of the gate. The risk with Urias will be a potential innings limit, but I think he’ll deliver a pretty yummy 3.25 – 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 150 Ks in 140 IP.
Alex Wood – Started season late, and those counting on him to help their teams in August/September were treated to a 5.80 ERA/1.40 WHIP dumpster fire. Had significant back issues that came back at end of year. He may win a SP role coming out of Spring Training, and many will buy based on his ‘17/18 stats and talent. But bad backs lead to extended DL stints, poor performance or both. I’m avoiding.
Ross Stripling – There’s nothing in his arsenal that’s great, though he does own a good/plus curve. But he’s consistently delivered 90-120 IP in the LR/swing role, and he’s done so with a solid 3.50ish ERA, 1.17ish WHIP, and a bit over a K per inning. I think he’ll tend toward the higher end of that IP total this year.
Dustin May – The uber-prospect arrived in August, was perilously close to being killed by a batted ball, and still put together a handful of starts and a couple handfuls of bullpen outings. He has a 96 MPH fastball, cutter, and curve. His major league control and low HR/9 were similar to his minor league numbers. Threw about 140 IP total last year, so if the Dodgers want the IP gloves to come off, they pretty much can. I’m betting the Dodgers send him down to screw with his arb…I mean, get more seasoning, and then bring him up once Alex Wood fails physically or statistically or both. For this year only, I’m predicting 3.50 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 120-130 K’s. If the Dodgers surprise and bring him up right away, add another 55-65 K’s onto that total.
MIAMI:
Caleb Smith – As the excellent RJ thread noted, he was in full breakout mode before hip injury moved him to full disaster mode. If healthy, he can get you 2.7 – 3.0 BB/9, 11-12 K’s/9, mid to upper 3’s ERA, and a 1.1 WHIP. Given how he went from awesome to pumpkin so quickly, if you buy him, monitor his injury status closely.
Sandy Alcantara – Guy who most surprised me when I dug into his stuff and 2019 season. He has a 95+ MPH fastball, slider, change and curve. Was a work in progress who actually made a lot of progress. Dropped his walk rate from over 4 BB/9 to 3.2 BB/9 from first to second half. K rate increased from 6.2 to 7.8/9 IP. WHIP dropped from 1.40 to 1.23. Was near-dominant last two months. At only 24 years old with this stuff, I think his trajectory is up, even beyond the 4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 160 K’s even if he plateaus at 2019 second half levels.
Jose Urena – Another pitcher with back issues, though there wasn’t much good going on before the injury, either. Walks 2.5 – 2.8 per 9, K’s 6.5 – 6.8/9, and in 2019, a bad BABIP and strand rate blew him out of the water as a SP. Finished in the bullpen, and may stay there. That said, the Marlins don’t have much in the way of ready options, so I suspect he’ll go back to a SP role to start the year. But the Marlins do have a couple options if they want to trade Urena or keep him in the pen.
Pablo Lopez – Another young Marlins arm, just with nowhere near the upside of Smith or Alcantara. Was crushed in the second half with a disaster combination of high BABIP and really bad strand rate and what appeared to be shoulder issues. Healthy, he’s likely a solid innings eater type of 4.25 – 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 130-140 K’s, but with upside.
Jordan Yamamoto – I followed him when he was in the Brewers organization, and there had to be few more surprised than me when he threw shutouts for his first two outings. Lack of control bit him hard over his final nine starts, but minor league numbers indicate that should improve. However, the bad news is that .225 BABIP just ain’t skill induced and regression will probably bite hard. He probably won’t hurt you in WHIP, but an ERA of about 4.50 is likely. Figure 150-160 K’s.
Elieser Hernandez – First half was great; second half not. Still major improvement overall from 2018. His BB/9 was a major improvement to just under 3; his K rate up to just about 10K/9 IP. Had very good results over final month. That said, his stuff is even more pedestrian that Yamamoto’s or Lopez’s, he gives up a ton of fly balls, and an already high-ish HR/9 could go really bad.
MILWAUKEE:
Brandon Woodruff – Has had two major oblique injuries in four years; has yet to cross 125 IP in a year. Health is clearly the biggest risk. But the stuff is nothing less than incredible – an explosive fastball with excellent control, solid slider, and improving change. Cut walks to 2.3 BB/9, K rate up to about 10.5/9 IP; WHIP somewhere in the mid 1.1’s is likely. Innings will drive value, but he’s another guy I’m buying if I don’t have the best keeper list for the upside opportunity.
Adrian Houser – Struggled early, sent to the bullpen for remainder of first half. Starter in second half, with an ERA in the Mid-3’s and a 1.1ish WHIP. Fastball dominant pitcher, improved his control as a SP to 2.4 BB/9. Threw a little over 130 IP last year, so will likely be constrained to 170-180 IP; however, he’s unlikely to hit that barrier with Counsell’s style of bullpen management. He’s an under the radar guy who can get you 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 160 K’s.
Brett Anderson – From two power pitchers to a finesse lefty with questionable health history. Pitch to contact guy who hardly strikes anyone out – and going from the fairly cavernous Athletics stadium to Miller Park makes my insides squirm. Much as I like David Stearns, I just don’t think this will end well – 4.50 – 5.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and only 70-90 Ks. And that’s if he stays healthy.
Eric Lauer – Another lefty without overpowering stuff, though significantly better than Anderson. Changed pitch strategy in second half, which led to more K’s, but also a 3.8 BB/9 rate and a lot more flyballs. His pitch strategy in second half aligned more with typical Brewer strategy; I suspect they saw something in Lauer that could be improved with same conceptual pitching plan. I still see him as a 4.25 – 4.50 ERA pitcher with about a 1.3 WHIP, though K rate looks like it could increase Ks to the 150-160 range.
Josh Lindblom – This is some career path and potential story. While in Korea, scouts show him developing a very good splitter and good cutter. His pitch mix, velocity, and style all indicate to me that Counsell will use him in a manner very similar to Davies – twice through the lineup, and then a fairly quick hook. Should lead to good ratios, but will limit wins and K’s. 4ish or a touch lower ERA and 1.25 WHIP will be sandwiched by limited wins and only 120-130 K’s.
Corbin Burnes – And in the topic of post-hype sleepers, we have Burnes. Was a HR serving machine last year; I swear Yasiel Puig hit one that the Air Force tried to capture and put in Area 51. But he has a power arm, and was once the top Brewer pitching prospect not that long ago. Don’t buy/draft him, but watch for potential FAAB/waiver wire pickup if gopheritits is fixed.
NEW YORK:
Jacob deGrom - That deGrom is 21-17 over 2018-2019 and Mike Fiers is 27-11 in the same timeframe is an unanswerable sphinx like mystery. He’s almost bankable to deliver low 2’s ERA, sub 1.0 WHIP, and 250-270 K’s…and seemingly 11 W’s. Buy the ratios and Ks and hope that every dog has its day and the Mets actually hit for deGrom. I’ll actually take deGrom in the first round of my 12-team mixed redraft league, if he makes it to me at 9.
Noah Syndergaard – The Thunder God met the baseball equivalent of Hela last year on a regular basis, leading to a disappointing 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and just over 200 Ks. On the plus side, he was healthy for almost 200 IP. He sill has premium velocity, a power slider, and decent control at about 2.3 BB/9 for two years running. For years, I thought he was over-rated, but last years numbers will potentially drive him to a value where I’m interested. I think he’ll settle in a 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 190-210 Ks, and his stuff has upside.
Marcus Stroman – Totally overhauled pitch selection and batter strategy, now cutter/curve heavy with a 92-93 MPH fastball sprinkled in; all while throwing higher in the zone. Pitch mix would seem to play very well in Shea. BB/9 and K/9 remained pretty consistent at 2.8 and 7.5, respectively, which seems pretty bankable. IMO, Shea will help his ERA, so I’m looking at a mid-3s ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 160-170 Ks.
Steven Matz – Threw more sliders and changeups, but didn’t fundamentally change statistical outcomes. He’s a 4.25ish ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 8.5-9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 pitcher. There’s just not a lot of upside, though it’s a not terrible floor.
Rick Porcello – Learned the lesson of Baron Mordo “The bill comes due, always”. Lower K rate, higher HR/9 and terrible strand rate combined to torch his ratios and owners. Velocity remains about the same, and escaping Fenway and the AL East for the more favorable environs of the NL and Shea should allow for a recovery to a still not that great 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 160 K’s.
Michael Wacha – Likely LR/swingman role for the Mets. BABIP normalized, and his mistakes were drilled to a 1.85 HR/9 rate. BB/9 of nearly 4 is unacceptable, and velocity is down 1-2 MPH from peak years of ’15 and ’17. And he has a record of dicey health and is now on the Mets – I mean, what could possibly go wrong? But if he gains back that velocity to 94-95, he’s worth a FAAB or waiver pick investment.
PHILADELPHIA:
Aaron Nola – We have a guy who made up a song called “Nola” to the tune of the Kinks “Lola” song. Hurt the owners who paid for premium #1 SP – BABIP normalized, walk rate jumped by more than one per nine innings to 3.56 BB/9, HR/9 and HR/FB increased by about 70% from 2018. On the plus side, velocity continues to ramp up and K rate increased to over 10/9 IP. Metrics indicate his walk rate will improve moderately, and that alone gives me confidence in improvement to 3.50 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 220-230 K’s. But 2018 isn’t coming back without serious BABIP and strand rate luck again.
Jake Arrieta – Injuries, walk rate, and HR/FB all incresing. Cleaning out the bone spurs he pitched through last year may arrest the decline, but there’s just not a lot out there that points to better than a 4.50 ERA, 1.4ish WHIP, and 130-140 K’s
Vince Velasquez – BB/9 made another step forward, K’s nice at 10/9 IP, velocity is good. But he gives up too many squarely hit FB’s, leading to an ERA-crushing 2.0 HR/9 rate. There’s not a lot in the metrics that point to a significant improvement, so ignore all the “VV looks great” stories in Spring Training, and let someone else draft or buy the 4.50 – 5.00 ERA and mid 1.3s WHIP…with downside.
Zack Wheeler – The Phillies paid scads of money for this Zack; he has a three year trend of polishing his BB/9; it is now 2.3 BB/9. Velocity continues to ramp up, hitting 95-97; in fact, I found it interesting that Wheeler’s slider was 1.5 MPH faster than Thor’s. K rate has reached one per inning. If he doesn’t freak out with the big contract, his stuff indicates further improvement to 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and about 200 K’s.
Zach Eflin – K rate decreased by 1.5 K/9 IP to just over 7 Ks/9. HR/9 jumped to over 1.5/9. BB/9 was essentially the same, as was BABIP. So, of course, his ERA…decreased. FIP/xFIP/xERA all say it’s a mirage. So don’t Eflin yourself and take on the 4.50 – 5.00 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, and only 120-130 Ks.
PITTSBURGH:
Chris Archer – Storied history of underperforming FIP, xFIP, xERA and just about any other similar metric, but he was at least dependable for 200 IP and 230+ Ks. Two seasons in a row of under 150 IP – plus shoulder trouble last year – drop his value significantly. 2019 was a disaster due to the above, and a thumb injury that damaged his control. There’s some positives that came out of the second half that point to improvement to a level of about 4.25 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 185 K’s. And since he’s with the Pirates, that could mean as little as 6 – 8 wins.
Joe Musgrove – Good Joe is a dominant stud with no runners on. Bad Joe has trouble getting people out with runners on. Showed nice improvement in BB/9 and K/9 in the second half. Pay for the 4.25 ERA and low 1.2s WHIP and 160 Ks, and recognize there’s upside if he can fix his strand rate issue.
Trevor Williams – Was pitching OK until oblique injury late in the first half, and then his season went on the express lane to hell. Has capability to hit low 4’s ERA, 1.3 WHIP and 120ish Ks, but margin for error is razor thin, and if it goes bad, it goes really bad.
Mitch Keller – Go for post-hype sleeper money on Keller. Blistered while up in limited innings, the BABIP and strand rates were ridiculously bad. Had quality K/9 and decent BB/9, and stuff points to a much better outcome. I’d be surprised if he’s not the best Pirate pitcher by the end of the year. I’m going with a flat 4 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 160 IP, and 170-175 Ks.
Stephen Brault – Those who had him in 2017 may be blinded by the awfulness of the last two years. He’s a ratio-wrecking machine that should not even sniff your roster.
Jameson Taillon – Out for 2020, but if your league allows you enough DL slots, he’s a worthy stash.
SAN DIEGO:
Chris Paddack – Every once in a while, Spring Training actually means something. Great 2019 ST lead to rotation spot, which he turned into ratio studliness. Had highly favorable BABIP, at least some of this was earned by some of the best numbers in barrel% and exit velocity. I do think there will be some minor roto regression, but the innings gloves comes off. 3.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 190 Ks on 175 IP is where I think he’ll end up.
Joey Lucchesi – Could well be on the Red Sox soon, and that would be bad. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who hits 89-91 MPH on his fastball, but throws a variety of reasonably effective secondary pitches. In Petco, that would lead to a low 4s ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 160 Ks. If dealt to Fenway look at his away splits from Petco; so it’ll probably be ugly.
Garrett RIchards – I had him cheap in his last good year, 2015, and he helped me win a championship. But I can’t watch him anymore since I’m convinced that the next slider he throws will make his elbow explode. I don’t even think he’ll give you Rich Hill level innings. I hope I’m wrong, but I’d only tak him if I could move on to a decent MR with minimal penalty.
Dinelson Lamet – Also see the RJ thread talking about him. Came off TJ surgery throwing smoke, piling up almost 13K/9 IP. Walk rate is still a problem, and the ball% certainly points to continued 3.5 – 4.0 BB/9. I’m suspecting the Pads will pull the innings chute around 140 IP, but that could still add up to about 165 Ks, upper 3s ERA, and mid to upper 1.2s WHIP. He’s being pimped by just about every magazine and writer as a breakout candidate, so you likely won’t get him cheap – but it still might be the last year you can get him at a reasonable price.
Zach Davies – Escape from Miller Park!! Truly a finesse lefty who goes 87-89 on his fastball. Other than his shoulder-limited 2018 season, he’s held ERA under 4.00 despite FIP/xFIP flashing lights. I don’t think the ERA will improve much, but WHIP could move a bit better if he feels confident enough to nibble less and throw more strikes. He’s likely good for 170 IP at a 4 ERA and 1.3 WHIP and 100 – 110 Ks.
Cal Quantrill – Also could well be Red Sox bound, if not, will likely start in LR/swing role in San Diego. Has 94-95 MPH fastball, quality slider, and two other dicey secondary pitches. There’s some good raw material here, but doesn’t seem really close to putting it together.
SAN FRANCISCO:
Johnny Cueto – With him, Spring Training matters. See the Injured Pitchers thread for more. But if he reaches 93 MPH in Spring Training, I think he’s got very high upside. At 91-92, I’d still endgame him. If he can’t touch 90, stay away.
Jeff Samadzjia – Shiny ERA and WHIP in 2019, and stunningly good 2nd half ratios. If you jump in this pool, don’t be surprised if it looks like the one in the Twenty One Pilots “Chlorine” video, complete with hallucinations. The BABIP is unsustainable, strand rate unusually high, and velocity barely touches 92 now. The K/9 is following velocity on a downward trend. The bill will come due in 2020, with payment being a 4.50ish ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 130-140 Ks.
Drew Smyly – While I have little faith he can stay healthy, he did put together a decent run over a dozen starts with the Phillies last year, including a very good September with a 3.65 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 over five starts, with only one clunker. San Fran’s a favorable pitchers park, but even with that, I don’t have the intestinal fortitude to make even an endgame play on him.
Kevin Gausman – The Gascan lived up to his nickname as a SP early in the season. Did better in the bullpen, and pitches sure seem to indicate that’s his likely best role. But if the Giants start him, figure a 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 8-9 Ks/9 IP.
Logan Webb – Will SF start the prospect? If so, must improve control to be successful – present ball rate points to a 3.5 BB/9 rate, and I think he’ll get crushed walking that many. He’s one young pitcher I’m not buying.
ST LOUIS:
Jack Flaherty – Not very good first half followed by monster second half. BB/9 went down, K/9 went up, velocity ticked up, and supporting metrics for BB/9 and K/9 support the gains. But no matter how good he is, those BABIP and strand rate numbers from the second half are unsustainable. But the net-net likely comes out similar to the totals from all of last year – 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 225-235 Ks.
Miles Mikolas – Premium control, but had very normal BABIP and strand rates in 2019. He’s hittable, and just looks to be a 4ish ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 180-200 IP, 140-150 K pitcher.
Adam Wainwright – Written off for dead after 2017 – including by me – he put together a respectable 2019 with 14 Wins, low 4s ERA, and 150 Ks. But the control of 3.4 BB/9 and hittable stuff led to a hideous 1.43 WHIP. An ERA of 4.50 and 1.4+ WHIP will be pretty destructive to your ratios. And there’s much more downside than upside.
Dakota Hudson – Think of him as a young Dallas Keuchel with much worse control. Worse yet, his control deteriorated to really hideous levels in the second half. The odds of him pitching to a respectable ERA this year with a 5 BB/9 walk rate are slim at best. The bill gets paid this year, with a jump to 4.75 – 5.00 ERA and nearly 1.5 WHIP.
Carlos Martinez – Said to be preparing to start, the man with the electric arm and previously cavalier off-season program is certain to be one of those who is “in the best shape of his life” going into Spring Training. Actually, it’ll probably be true for CMart this year. I like him for a 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, low 1.2s WHIP, and a K per inning. I’d not spend extra to get him since he hasn’t thrown 120 IP for a couple years.
Kwang Hyun-Kim – Reported to have quality stuff, especially a plus slider. Eric Thames spoke highly of him in an interview after he signed with the Cards. Project for 2.7 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 4 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 150-170 Ks.
Genesis Cabrera – Another post-hype type guy, as his numbers were turrble last year. But if you’re looking for a minor leaguer to stash with a huge arm, he’s your guy. Could be starting or closing in two years.
Daniel Ponce de Leon – Somehow put together quality ratios with terrible control (almost 5 BB/9) in LR/swing role. His stuff is better than pedestrian, but certainly nowhere near good enough to susutain those ratios at that walk rate.
WASHINGTON:
Max Scherzer – The first cracks showed in the armor last year, with injuries cutting short his second half. That meant his overall year was merely excellent instead of otherworldly. Given that he’s in his mid-30s, I would take Cole and deGrom in front of him in a mixed league, and I’d have to think hard on Verlander. But I think he returns to 2017-like stats – 200 IP, 250-260 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.
Stephen Strasburg – For the first time in memory, Stras stayed healthy for 200+ IP. And he delivered Stras-like goodness for the whole year; then morphed into SuperStras for the playoffs. He always seems to deliver on a 3.25ish ERA, 1.05ish WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and almost 11 Ks/9. You just have to decide how many innings he’ll deliver. I’m bidding based on 175-180 IP.
Patrick Corbin – Ramped up his evil slider usage, his arm survived, and he continues to crank out really good numbers. WHIP ticked up a bit, but I still like him for 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 200 IP and 230-240 Ks.
Anibel Sanchez – This is the second year after being left for dead leaving Detroit that he’s provided serviceable ERA/WHIP/Ks. He has veteran savvy and not a lot else left. I just don’t think the FIP/xFIP/xERA are lying, and it’s going to slide to a 4.50+ ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and Washington cutting bait at the trade deadline.
Joe Ross – Well, that was an ugly return off TJ surgery, but on the good side, his velocity was back in the 93-94 MPH range. With a sound arm, he should improve back to Ross like numbers around 4.25-4.50 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9.
Austin Voth – Numbers don’t jump off the page, and eye test says his stuff is good but not great. But showed solid improvement in the second half, good control in the mid-2sBB/9 IP, and a decent K rate around 8 K/9. Not sure if he or Ross will slot into #5SP, but if he goes to LR/swing, you could get him cheap and he can deliver value.
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