Mike Trout question/exercise

[Gregg]

Ok junkies here is the set up and the question.

You are entering in a new AL only 5x5 OBP instead of Ave. 12 team $260 budget Keeper league. There will be the standard 14 position players and 9 pitchers. There will be a 15 man reserve draft after the auction.

Prospects cannot be bid on but picked up in the reserve draft. All the rest of the AL is available for auction.

Mike Trout is the first player to be bid on. How much will you pay for him?

[SlideRule]

$50-$55

edit - ehhhh, maybe a bit less since it's a new league and there will be no inflation? Still, would be surprised if he went for <$50. Personal preference to not spend that much on a single player for me, though.

[TranaGreg]

yeah I'm of the same mind - I don't like putting all my eggs in one basket, and a Trout investment certainly would be that. Having said that, if the bidding was stopping at anything less than 60 I think I'd have to jump in.

[cleo]

I am in a similar league.... 12 team AL only that uses OB% instead of avg that is a keeper league with the same $260 limit. We have 2-3 owners each auction that don't spend much time in draft prep as compared to the others and show up on draft day with the same Stars and Scrubs plan. This causes bidding wars between these types of owners and drive up prices on the top talent.

We also have one another owner that does the 2 year plan. He also gets a few top players (no matter the cost) so he can cherry pick top keepers from other teams via trade early in the season. To limit really terrible dump trades, our league created an in season salary cap of $310 from draft day to the ASB and then increases to $340 from ASB to end of season.

Trout has been protected for since his first year ($5 initial contract and owner signed him to a 6 year extension to make him $35). If Trout were to be available to be bid on during the auction, I would say he would go $55 - $60 range and maybe a few $ over that. But with all that said, I also do not like to invest too much in a single player. I am more of a spread the risk type, so I would not go over $45 on him. I know there would be zero chance for me to get him at that.

[Ken]

$45 is about where I take my foot off the accelerator and I do not expect to win him at that price.

[Art Vandelay]

Ok junkies here is the set up and the question.

You are entering in a new AL only 5x5 OBP instead of Ave. 12 team $260 budget Keeper league. There will be the standard 14 position players and 9 pitchers. There will be a 15 man reserve draft after the auction.

Prospects cannot be bid on but picked up in the reserve draft. All the rest of the AL is available for auction.

Mike Trout is the first player to be bid on. How much will you pay for him?

in a start up, if I could get fishboy for high 40's, I absolutely grab him. in year 2, inflation kicks in and the value begins to show.

hey Gregg, I am kind of jealous that you found a brand new a.l. start up. I wish I could...

[Ken]

hey Gregg, I am kind of jealous that you found a brand new a.l. start up. I wish I could...

Then start one

[joncarlos]

Curious what his actual projected value would be. I would guess I'd be willing to PLAN to bid at least 53-54. Like TG I can see myself pushing 60 in the moment.

[TS Garp]

It's all about how comfortable you are having so much of your total budget invested in one player and knowing that if he goes down, your team is finished. With that said, in an AL-only, OBP league, his value is through the roof. $55, maybe a bit more.

[Hornsby]

RJEL is an 18 team mixed, and Trout is available for the 1st time in his career, IIRC. I would expect 60 to be the floor, and a possibility or someone going 70...maybe me? Or would I?

[Gregg]

in a start up, if I could get fishboy for high 40's, I absolutely grab him. in year 2, inflation kicks in and the value begins to show.

hey Gregg, I am kind of jealous that you found a brand new a.l. start up. I wish I could...

Art, Unfortunately I am not involved with a start up league. I have been messing around with what I call Situational Inflation. I know from my experience that it is real. I do not know if it can be used more than a gut feel during the auction. Or if it can even be used as a real tool.

Ken's inflation thread got me to thinking about posting it. I am not sure how to articulate it as a meaningful tool to use.

Most of us calculate our league's inflation pre-auction but does it hold true during the auction. Star player plus league inflation should (in general) tell us the max bid that said player should go for (whether or not I/you are willing to pay it).

I created this example to start fresh with no keepers contributing to inflation. It would seem that this one single player could experience huge inflation in a league with zero inflation. There is no cheap player with profit to offset the inflation. My particular keeper leagues experience high situational inflation because we have drafted and sat on cheap stud prospects that allow us to overpay for the studs.

It may be that what I am calling situational inflation is merely money management combined with player bias.

[Ken]

Ah, you are going down the same path as cavebird.

Inflation is not just increased prices. It is an increase due to an abundance of funds due to keepers (or underpriced assets during the auction, which is rare).

There are strategies, including strategies that consider inflation for the following year, but there's no inflation on the first player thrown out.

I hate to get into mixing those concepts because they should be treated separately.

[Gregg]

Ah, you are going down the same path as cavebird.

Inflation is not just increased prices. It is an increase due to an abundance of funds due to keepers (or underpriced assets during the auction, which is rare).

There are strategies, including strategies that consider inflation for the following year, but there's no inflation on the first player thrown out.

I hate to get into mixing those concepts because they should be treated separately.

I realize it is not just increased prices. I agree that one of the main causes in keeper leagues is an abundance of funds. Supply and demand is also a cause for inflation. That is why Trout in this example is inflated.

[Ken]

eh, I hate the idea of mixing the concepts. Inflation due to abundance of funds is literally the only "cause" that is meant by the term in fantasy baseball context. I know other people incorrectly use the term to mean "hey this price seems high". But that's not what it is. Just like if my local gas station owner is short on funds this month and raises his prices, that doesn't mean the US is experiencing inflation. It's just someone's price point. That's not inflation.

[Gregg]

eh, I hate the idea of mixing the concepts. Inflation due to abundance of funds is literally the only "cause" that is meant by the term in fantasy baseball context. I know other people incorrectly use the term to mean "hey this price seems high". But that's not what it is. Just like if my local gas station owner is short on funds this month and raises his prices, that doesn't mean the US is experiencing inflation. It's just someone's price point. That's not inflation.

Ok...but it might be Situational Inflation...or not.

All kidding aside. If I understand what you are saying in this new league example no matter what the players go for there will be zero inflation at the end of the auction. All players would be at the fair market value as dictated by the league universe. Inflation would not set in until year two when we declare keepers?