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Thread: A discussion on inflation

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    I agree, although at times, we're all chasing that one guy who is falling, and no one wants to nominate him. And then he gets nominated, and bidding is out of control because everyone was counting on getting that guy since it looked like he was going to go for cheap. I've seen that happen numerous times.
    This, I think is universal. In my main league, it is called being "Neiled" after Neil who almost always hoards his money, and when you think you can slip a guy through, he was sitting on him, and well, shit.

  2. #42
    I think it was mid/late 1980s when we got late in the auction and one owner had a good 20 units more than the rest of us.
    we are looking at our printouts and thinking, "Who the heck is he waiting for?"

    Finally he triumphantly announces, "TIM WALLACH for 1!"

    "um, he was frozen by another owner."

    #awkward
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    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
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    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  3. #43
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    Ken....It's so funny that you posted this b/c that's exactly the same way I calculate inflation. It took me a while to figure it out but this method really shows you the value of keeping stars close to value in an inflation heavy league. I also use SGPs to calculate value and one thing I've done is calculate inflations for hitters and pitchers separately. This can be very helpful as sometimes overall inflation is 26% but hitter inflation is more likely 30% while pitcher inflation is only 18%. Using these numbers and tracking them historically can further help more accurately determine value

  4. #44
    Triple-A SlideRule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    That's fair. I am being honest when I say that I don't believe that another owner or owners can change my inflation on my team, simply because if they are bidding me up, they are going to get caught with their hand in the cookie jar. And when they over pay, that makes inflation go down for everyone else.
    There is a lot of great discussion here. Thanks everyone! I wanted to add one comment on what Ken says here. While I think I agree that this happens on aggregate in an auction, the tricky thing about inflation and "getting bid up" is that it only takes two owners to drive the price of a given player up high. Inflation does not affect everyone equally at the same time. If I just spent $58 on Trout, I'm probably not going to be in the bidding for Mookie Betts, but someone will be. For the two owners after me bidding each other up on Betts, it doesn't matter how much "over value" I spent on Trout; the inflation suppression of my overpay does not affect them in the Betts bidding.

    I think the point of this is that if you are a numbers person (like me) and have a fancy spreadsheet that calculates real-time inflation adjustments and all sorts of bells and whistles, just remember that the available auction money is not all pooled together and used optimally. Inflation will, by definition, equal out over the entire draft, but the dynamics of one "overpay" doesn't really or immediately affect the likely inflated prices of all other players.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlideRule View Post
    There is a lot of great discussion here. Thanks everyone! I wanted to add one comment on what Ken says here. While I think I agree that this happens on aggregate in an auction, the tricky thing about inflation and "getting bid up" is that it only takes two owners to drive the price of a given player up high. Inflation does not affect everyone equally at the same time. If I just spent $58 on Trout, I'm probably not going to be in the bidding for Mookie Betts, but someone will be. For the two owners after me bidding each other up on Betts, it doesn't matter how much "over value" I spent on Trout; the inflation suppression of my overpay does not affect them in the Betts bidding.

    I think the point of this is that if you are a numbers person (like me) and have a fancy spreadsheet that calculates real-time inflation adjustments and all sorts of bells and whistles, just remember that the available auction money is not all pooled together and used optimally. Inflation will, by definition, equal out over the entire draft, but the dynamics of one "overpay" doesn't really or immediately affect the likely inflated prices of all other players.
    This is part of the tricky part about inflation and why following the numbers is foolish. The other part is, as others have noted, that inflation is not spread equally. The top players more or less suck up all the inflation; all of the values are at $20 and under players; hell in many leagues, most $5 and under guys all go for a buck. Therefore, if you chase value and refuse to overpay past what the overall inflation numbers says to do, you will end up without any top players and well, that's not good because you won't spend all of your money and your team will be bad. I think this is well enough known, but there is no way to put it in a formula, so it is hard to do anything about it scientifically; you just have to go by guy.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by cavebird View Post
    ... and well, that's not good because you won't spend all of your money and your team will be bad. ...
    Thanks, I was thinking along these lines & couldn't articulate it well. Money management - maximizing the value of ALL of your $260 - is an equally important concept.

  7. #47
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cavebird View Post
    This is part of the tricky part about inflation and why following the numbers is foolish.
    Definitely disagree. I am a numbers person and I've been extremely successful. Now, like real baseball, it is a combination of numbers and other analysis, but numbers is my base. 70/30 on the numbers side.

    Quote Originally Posted by cavebird View Post
    The other part is, as others have noted, that inflation is not spread equally. The top players more or less suck up all the inflation; all of the values are at $20 and under players; hell in many leagues, most $5 and under guys all go for a buck.
    I agree with this

    Quote Originally Posted by cavebird View Post
    Therefore, if you chase value and refuse to overpay past what the overall inflation numbers says to do, you will end up without any top players and well, that's not good because you won't spend all of your money and your team will be bad.
    Wait, that's where we differ. You don't have to "refuse" to overpay. You can still watch auction dynamics and determine the right place to get in. If it moves you can adjust. If you are watching the numbers correctly you'll see this coming.


    Quote Originally Posted by cavebird View Post
    I think this is well enough known, but there is no way to put it in a formula, so it is hard to do anything about it scientifically; you just have to go by guy.
    That's not correct at all. You can definitely look at your auctions history and see where the inflation goes and put it on a curve and use that in your valuations as well if you are interested in that level of detail.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by cavebird View Post
    This is part of the tricky part about inflation and why following the numbers is foolish. The other part is, as others have noted, that inflation is not spread equally. The top players more or less suck up all the inflation; all of the values are at $20 and under players; hell in many leagues, most $5 and under guys all go for a buck. Therefore, if you chase value and refuse to overpay past what the overall inflation numbers says to do, you will end up without any top players and well, that's not good because you won't spend all of your money and your team will be bad. I think this is well enough known, but there is no way to put it in a formula, so it is hard to do anything about it scientifically; you just have to go by guy.

    This is simply not true for all auctions. In my home league, high priced stars regularly go under inflated value while the mid priced guys get inflated way too much. While I agree that you need to get involved with bidding otherwise you'll be left with too much money, if stars are going off the board $5-10 over the inflated price there is no need to feel pressured to buy them. If this is happening in your auction it means that mid priced guys will be better values and you should be able to spend enough of your budget on mid priced guys that you won't have too much left over for end game. The important thing to note is how much inflation you will expect, the rest is just figuring out what the room will do with the extra $$.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by ssmallz View Post
    This is simply not true for all auctions. In my home league, high priced stars regularly go under inflated value while the mid priced guys get inflated way too much. While I agree that you need to get involved with bidding otherwise you'll be left with too much money, if stars are going off the board $5-10 over the inflated price there is no need to feel pressured to buy them. If this is happening in your auction it means that mid priced guys will be better values and you should be able to spend enough of your budget on mid priced guys that you won't have too much left over for end game. The important thing to note is how much inflation you will expect, the rest is just figuring out what the room will do with the extra $$.
    Interesting, that is not my experience. In my league, high priced and medium priced guys both get over-inflated and everyone under $10 (except that random guy with helium who goes for $20) goes for next to nothing---especially in pitching. Sometimes mid-tier hitters go for inflated value or a little bit less, and I always try to jump in then (but, of course, it only takes two to kill that, lol), but with pitchers, especially starters it is hell. But leagues are different.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Definitely disagree. I am a numbers person and I've been extremely successful. Now, like real baseball, it is a combination of numbers and other analysis, but numbers is my base. 70/30 on the numbers side.
    I have found that in the past 5-10 years, 3/4 of the league has a program that calculates inflation for them, so everyone has the numbers. The question is where you disagree on projections and where you overpay---overpaying for Verlander worked last year; for Sale, not so much. Hell, I got what the numbers said was a great bargain on Justin Upton last year and he he messed up his foot the next day. Still, with everyone having the numbers, the team with easily the best keeper list, despite a poor auction ($20 Nick Pivetta, lol) still won.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Wait, that's where we differ. You don't have to "refuse" to overpay. You can still watch auction dynamics and determine the right place to get in. If it moves you can adjust. If you are watching the numbers correctly you'll see this coming.
    Actually, I think we are agreeing here more than disagreeing. Of course, you have to determine when to get in, but that's not necessarily a numbers game. Getting in involves tossing the guys you want instead of the guys you think will get big bids, etc. You definitely have to strike when the iron is hot, but I think this is as much gut as pure numbers. If the numbers say to get a guy but you think he won't meet his projections (unless you do your own projections for everyone, you'll disagree with plenty of the projections in whatever program you use), getting in when the numbers say so is not so good. I guess you could call that numbers, but I call it gut. Hell, I weigh 297 lbs---I must think with my gut, lol. (For some reason I keep typoing gut as guy. No idea why. Well, other than keyboard placement.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    That's not correct at all. You can definitely look at your auctions history and see where the inflation goes and put it on a curve and use that in your valuations as well if you are interested in that level of detail.
    I think that's debatable, although "auctions" instead of "auction's" is clearly not correct at all. The problem is that some leagues have inflation going in different ways in different years. Our league is very keeper dependent. For example, this year we have a guy with easily the best keeper list I have seen in 16 years in the league. He has no starting pitchers at all (we have 6 SP, 5 RP, 13 hitters) and needs maybe 4-5 hitters at auction depending on whether he keeps a close-call keeper or two. That will probably shift the inflation even further to the pitching side than the hitting side. Other random events can change inflation that has nothing to do with league history, too. For example, with that top keeper list leading to more money spent on pitching (in particular top tier starters) math would say that pitching would be more inflated than last year when this wasn't the same. But last year had a weird wrinkle. One guy in the league with one or two keepers (Garrett Hampson, locked in lineup all year, lol) and tons of auction cash (we are $300 budget) had to draft by phone because he works in electric line repair and there had been tornadoes in the midwest right before the draft and he was up there working on that. He didn't want to get the plunger (yes, we have a "trophy" for last place), so he executed a "pitchers and pinch-runners strategy. He spent over $240 out of $300 on pitching. Somehow managed to finish 5th out of 16---the last money slot, despite being last in runs, RBI's, and HR (a whopping total of 153---in the year of the juiced ball when HR records fell everywhere) and managed to pick up some keepers in dump trades at the deadline because he was so far ahead in the pitching categories. That skewed wildly what the numbers would have said where the inflation was going. And it happened because of natural disasters a week or so before the auction. Numbers can't predict that.

    And he didn't make the strategy up---someone finished 5th several years ago with the same strategy. But nobody else has ever tried it. No way to know in advance if anyone will this year. We lost a player last year and have replaced him. Our rules have new teams as expansion teams with no keepers at all. If the new guy (who knows someone in the league who could tell him about the strategy) wants to have a chance at the money in his first year with an ability to do dump trades to get better for the next year (everyone needs pitching with our roster rules) he could do it. Or he might not. Numbers can't predict that.

    A different year, one guy tried the streaming one dollar starters all year strategy (tank ERA and WHIP) and that skewed the inflation completely differently. That hasn't been tried in a while, but could be tried again. Nothing numbers can predict from league history. The historical numbers will put the inflation in the middle from the average of both types of years. That's unlikely to be correct (I recall an old science teacher's joke about averages being iffy by a duck hunting reference with two shots equal distance on each side of the duck with the duck being dead on the average.)

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