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Thread: A discussion on inflation

  1. #1
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    A discussion on inflation

    I've read numerous articles on calculating inflation, primarily aimed at those who are new to auction leagues (specifically keeper leagues).

    I believe all of them are fundamentally wrong. And I believe I'm right. I know that's extremely naive of me.

    Out of curiosity though, before I tell you my ideas, what's yours. How do you calculate inflation?

    For the purposes of simplicity lets take the assumption that every team will end up paying the same inflation at auction (which, if you buy expensive assets early, and then wait back for deals, on average, you do). And lets use a round number. Say 25%.

    You have 3 potential keepers. Which one is more valuable?

    Player X is on a $1 contract and you believe he's worth $30
    Player Y is on a $8 contract and you believe he's worth $35
    Player Z is on a $14 contract and you believe he's worth $40.

    **Note, set aside generalities and recommendations and anecdotes, I'm interested in your objective approach, formulas, etc. I'm not interested in strategies like stars and scrubs discussions, or patterns you follow, etc.

    How do you personally calculate which one is worth the most of those 3, in the abstract?

    I have my way, which I believe to be correct, but you tell me how you do it first.

  2. #2
    At 25% inflation, player X cost at auction = $37.50, Y = $43.25, Z = $50. So given the savings is nearly identical for all three players I'd keep Z.
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  3. #3
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    In general i think inflation is more pronounced for the upper tier guys. By a standard inflation calc they all look somewhat equivalent. So i would tend to keep the most valuable player ($40). However, in your example all of them are upper tier performers and it would depend on some other factors, like age and injury risk. Good question and i am curious to see other opinions. They are all geeat keepera and i would test the trade market if i couldnt keep them all

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    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Here is my approach: maximize the total value/production of my roster. To do this, we would need to compare what the value we keep is plus the value of the inflation adjusted dollars in the auction for each player, normalized for the maximum value player. In your example, the maximum value you are buying is Player Z, for $40, so that is the baseline:

    Player Z=$40 plus what $26 in auction money nets you, with a 25% inflation, gets you another $20 in value, so $60 total value for $40=+$20
    Player Y=$35 plus what $32 in auction money gets you, 25% inflation, $24 in value, so $59 total value for $40=+$19
    Player X-$30 plus what $39 auction money gets you, 25% inflation, $29 value, so $59 total value for $40=+$19

    So, by a small margin, player Z is the choice, and even if it were a tie, I keep the guy who is worth the most, because the highest value players are the toughest to replace, and inflation most often happens more in the top tier than in the other tiers.

    ETA: Actually, that is not always true--I often don't go just with the math. I sometimes like a player more for age or upside, or because I need that position filled and the auction is light on that kind of player, or I am very broke and want to have more fun in the auction, etc. So, really, these are so close, with other factors in play, none of these are necessarily the wrong choice. But in the abstract, without other factors in play, player Z has the slight edge.
    Last edited by Sour Masher; 01-28-2020 at 09:26 PM.

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    All Star GwynnInTheHall's Avatar
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    Do you include the Flippin Factor?

    IE All Astros go for additional dollars or two...…...
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  6. #6
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    At 25% inflation, player X cost at auction = $37.50, Y = $43.25, Z = $50. So given the savings is nearly identical for all three players I'd keep Z.
    For simply comparing the 3 players in a vacuum your methodology works, but I don't think it correctly scales the results.

    Also I agree with you on the "since they are nearly identical" portion, but I was looking for a purely formulaic approach (which I do not use purely, but for the purposes of demonstration).

    I think there's an easier way to look at this, I think we always look at it backwards.

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    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    For simply comparing the 3 players in a vacuum your methodology works, but I don't think it correctly scales the results.

    Also I agree with you on the "since they are nearly identical" portion, but I was looking for a purely formulaic approach (which I do not use purely, but for the purposes of demonstration).

    I think there's an easier way to look at this, I think we always look at it backwards.
    I disagree

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    In general i think inflation is more pronounced for the upper tier guys. By a standard inflation calc they all look somewhat equivalent. So i would tend to keep the most valuable player ($40). However, in your example all of them are upper tier performers and it would depend on some other factors, like age and injury risk. Good question and i am curious to see other opinions. They are all geeat keepera and i would test the trade market if i couldnt keep them all
    You are cheating, I was asking about formulas jerk

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    Here is my approach: maximize the total value/production of my roster. To do this, we would need to compare what the value we keep is plus the value of the inflation adjusted dollars in the auction for each player, normalized for the maximum value player. In your example, the maximum value you are buying is Player Z, for $40, so that is the baseline:

    Player Z=$40 plus what $26 in auction money nets you, with a 25% inflation, gets you another $20 in value, so $60 total value for $40=+$20
    Player Y=$35 plus what $32 in auction money gets you, 25% inflation, $24 in value, so $59 total value for $40=+$19
    Player X-$30 plus what $39 auction money gets you, 25% inflation, $29 value, so $59 total value for $40=+$19

    So, by a small margin, player Z is the choice, and even if it were a tie, I keep the guy who is worth the most, because the highest value players are the toughest to replace, and inflation most often happens more in the top tier than in the other tiers.

    ETA: Actually, that is not always true--I often don't go just with the math. I sometimes like a player more for age or upside, or because I need that position filled and the auction is light on that kind of player, or I am very broke and want to have more fun in the auction, etc. So, really, these are so close, with other factors in play, none of these are necessarily the wrong choice. But in the abstract, without other factors in play, player Z has the slight edge.
    I think your methodology is actually correct, but in this case the decimals are wrong (not that that level precision is important here...).

    I also think there is a much easier way to go about it that answers the same question in the same way you are doing it but in 1 step rather than several.

  10. #10
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    You are cheating, I was asking about formulas jerk
    I'm the Feral Slasher, of course I'm a jerk

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