A discussion on inflation

[SlideRule]

Interesting read, thanks for the time and effort Ken! I’ll have to come back and digest more thoroughly later.

[Ken]

I will need to fully digest this, but if this all adds up, this is really cool. My sleepy brain won't accept the bottom line can be this simple, but I'm sure my less sleep brain will look at your steps and realize it is. Thanks for sharing, Ken!

ETA: Next up, come up with an equally simple way to calculate the initial player values based on projected stats. How do you currently do that? I rely on other resources, but I suspect you do it yourself?

Yes, come back and look at it later. Ask questions if anything doesn't make sense. Poke holes if there are any!

As far as valuations, you are correct, I do them myself. Sadly there's not a magic bullet that I've found, so I can't give you the "simple" part.

I run it through a SQLServer script that I wrote. It is iterative in nature, so, not at all simple.

I can tell you some things that I've learned though:

1) Steamer projections have played out the best for me as far as the raw numbers go
2) Find a source that you like for playing time and multiply it out. I don't think the people who are best at projections are the best at playing time and visa versa so I combine both
3) Backstop projections with real numbers. I always take a glance at how the standings look based on how players did last year
4) Position matters. I know there is this huge debate about positional scarcity and whether or not it exists. But the real value for each player is how much they are worth relative to the $1 player you can get at the end of the auction. And that player has to be able to play at that position. And a $1 catcher is a lot different than a $1 outfielder. Now you can tell me that the rest of them are "close", i.e. a $1 1B may put up numbers that are similar to a $1 OFer. But a) if I'm having to do it for catchers why not do it for all? and b) even if there is just $1 or $2 difference in stats why not consider that when I can do so?
5) Use your auction dollars to gain points in the standings. And by that I mean, utilize the standings gains points concepts. How much is 3 HRs worth compared to 3 saves? Hell I don't know. How much is 3 spots in the HR category worth compared to 3 spots in the saves category - I can answer that one - they are equivalent!
6) Standings gain points are different a) by league size and league dynamics and b) by year - if you don't think the new ball changed fantasy baseball you are cray cray, it changes the relative value of a HR in terms of standings gain points. So use your actual standings from last year as your basis. I do this for every league I'm in.

And I'm willing to share my methodology in detail with anyone who is more curious. Last year it had some bugs so I'll be going through in the next few weeks to fix them. I give myself a project every year. Last year my project was taking my draft tool and setting it up to automatically post to onroto and CBS - so I can have an offline draft with me being the only one connected to the internet, and our players are automatically posted to the league real time. It makes my commish duties much easier on draft night - I get home and rosters are already ready to go 2 seconds after the auction is done! This year I'll be tweaking my valuation calculations. Last year I had something go awry and my valuations worked 5 leagues and did not in another which caused me to scramble at the last second. I'll find the bug this year and make sure it's foolproof. I'm happy to share my methodology as I go.

[Ken]

I made it to 5000, this was a fun 5000th post.

[The Feral Slasher]

I made it to 5000, this was a fun 5000th post.

With inflation only 3000

[Ken]

With inflation only 3000

Value of posts = 0
Total posts = 5000
Inflation = 25%

0 - 5000/1.25 = -4000 posts.

[Sour Masher]

You da man, Ken. Really appreciate you posting about this. Good stuff, good sir.

[Gregg]

First let me say Thank you and well done Ken.

I really enjoyed the read and all the comments.

I do have a question. Are you finding inflation in your keeper leagues running fairly constant from year to year?

[Ken]

Are you finding inflation in your keeper leagues running fairly constant from year to year?

It runs pretty steady overall.

I don't spend too much time going back and looking at previous years inflation though. In the offseason I care about what players to trade for on other teams. I so I'm putting a value on every player on every team. I get partial indications from trade discussions about who is being kept, and then I fill in any blanks with educated guesses on who will be kept. At that point I run a league inflation valuation assuming that my guesses are correct. It's a live value though, so as trades are made and I see certain players that I expected to be kept moving out of a keeper list, I remove them from the valuation process and the inflation number updates real-time.

So in summary, yes, they stay in the general range, but because of the way I look at the data it doesn't really matter, I'm recalculating it constantly anyway.

[harmon]

In my in person auction keeper league some owners face higher inflation than others.

Specifically, those with a strong keeper list, defending champs and those with consistent historical success are frequently bid up, typically by a group of owners that are willing to take the risk of buying someone they hadn't targeted with the aim of doing what it takes to impede the perceived favorite for the common good. Often followed by some "atta-boys" and maybe a free drink after the auction.

I think a common inflation figure for everyone in the league is not always appropriate. A perceived favorite owner that has a clear specific need often finds they need to go far past their comfort zone to get what they need.

It can be tempting as a favorite to play the game and try to stick opponents with overpriced players, but at some point you have to spend some money.

[Ken]

In my in person auction keeper league some owners face higher inflation than others.

Specifically, those with a strong keeper list, defending champs and those with consistent historical success are frequently bid up, typically by a group of owners that are willing to take the risk of buying someone they hadn't targeted with the aim of doing what it takes to impede the perceived favorite for the common good. Often followed by some "atta-boys" and maybe a free drink after the auction.

I think a common inflation figure for everyone in the league is not always appropriate. A perceived favorite owner that has a clear specific need often finds they need to go far past their comfort zone to get what they need.

It can be tempting as a favorite to play the game and try to stick opponents with overpriced players, but at some point you have to spend some money.

This has never worked against me.

For one thing, the "clear specific need" isn't applicable to me. I've come out of auctions with 6 closers and won and I've come out with no closers and won. I've come out of auctions with heavy pitching and weak hitting and won, and I've come out with the inverse. As long as you start with a solid keeper list, and listen carefully to the auction dynamics and watch for value that is slipping, there's always going to be lots of bargains available. If I come out, as typically is the case in my deep keeper leagues, with a decent margin of victory in total value, I can adjust the specific players later to balance out categories. That's not a problem.

And if I notice that someone is actively bidding me up just because I bid (the "atta-boys" would be an obvious tell), I'd simply be even more aggressive with my quantity of bids. I already bid a lot. And why not? I don't have to have all my favorite players, I can have a decent player at a great price if the bidding stops there. So I bid a lot. And if you are trying to bid up "my guys", good luck figuring out which ones those are when I'm bidding on everyone. And when I don't win a particular player that I didn't really even care about, congratulations, you just bid up yourself!

[Gregg]

This has never worked against me.

For one thing, the "clear specific need" isn't applicable to me. I've come out of auctions with 6 closers and won and I've come out with no closers and won. I've come out of auctions with heavy pitching and weak hitting and won, and I've come out with the inverse. As long as you start with a solid keeper list, and listen carefully to the auction dynamics and watch for value that is slipping, there's always going to be lots of bargains available. If I come out, as typically is the case in my deep keeper leagues, with a decent margin of victory in total value, I can adjust the specific players later to balance out categories. That's not a problem.

And if I notice that someone is actively bidding me up just because I bid (the "atta-boys" would be an obvious tell), I'd simply be even more aggressive with my quantity of bids. I already bid a lot. And why not? I don't have to have all my favorite players, I can have a decent player at a great price if the bidding stops there. So I bid a lot. And if you are trying to bid up "my guys", good luck figuring out which ones those are when I'm bidding on everyone. And when I don't win a particular player that I didn't really even care about, congratulations, you just bid up yourself!

You are not the typical Fantasy Player.

The way to beat you is not just with the math.

[Gregg]

In my in person auction keeper league some owners face higher inflation than others.

Specifically, those with a strong keeper list, defending champs and those with consistent historical success are frequently bid up, typically by a group of owners that are willing to take the risk of buying someone they hadn't targeted with the aim of doing what it takes to impede the perceived favorite for the common good. Often followed by some "atta-boys" and maybe a free drink after the auction.

I think a common inflation figure for everyone in the league is not always appropriate. A perceived favorite owner that has a clear specific need often finds they need to go far past their comfort zone to get what they need.

It can be tempting as a favorite to play the game and try to stick opponents with overpriced players, but at some point you have to spend some money.

I agree with you and Ken. I do not view these as exclusive. They are parts of the game.

Some leagues make fantasy baseball more like checkers. Some make them more like chess. We can pick our poison to play what is most fun for us.

[harmon]

I agree with you and Ken. I do not view these as exclusive. They are parts of the game.

Some leagues make fantasy baseball more like checkers. Some make them more like chess. We can pick our poison to play what is most fun for us.

My main point I guess is that if you are positioned to be a favorite then you should expect your inflation, at the very least on top players or those in your price range, to be greater than the average. I'm not saying there aren't any ways to succeed despite that, but in the context of a mathematical discussion about inflation I think you have to be realistic about how inflation is not the same for everyone.

[Gregg]

My main point I guess is that if you are positioned to be a favorite then you should expect your inflation, at the very least on top players or those in your price range, to be greater than the average. I'm not saying there aren't any ways to succeed despite that, but in the context of a mathematical discussion about inflation I think you have to be realistic about how inflation is not the same for everyone.

Agreed. I call it Situational Inflation.

I was thinking about starting a thread on it. The math certainly is part of it but not all of it. You scratched on just one small part of it.

[Ken]

My main point I guess is that if you are positioned to be a favorite then you should expect your inflation, at the very least on top players or those in your price range, to be greater than the average. I'm not saying there aren't any ways to succeed despite that, but in the context of a mathematical discussion about inflation I think you have to be realistic about how inflation is not the same for everyone.

That's fair. I am being honest when I say that I don't believe that another owner or owners can change my inflation on my team, simply because if they are bidding me up, they are going to get caught with their hand in the cookie jar. And when they over pay, that makes inflation go down for everyone else.

But aside from that, I do see your point and it's fair.

My main revelation in the inflation analysis though is that all the articles telling you to take your projected value and multiply it by your inflation are close, but not quite correct, at least when it comes to comparing groups of players because they incorrectly scale the relative value based on the projected value. And the correct approach is to simply discount your price by a factor of your inflation.

I've read numerous articles about inflation and I've never seen one get that correct, or at least never seen one put in the simple format of: value - (price/inflation).

If you want to adjust your inflation factor up due to being the favorite, I think that's fair based on how you describe it in your scenario and your experience, and you can plug in that same value for your expected inflation into the same equation.