2K20: MacKenzie Gore

[onejayhawk]

He has only 20.7 IP in AA, but there is speculation that he will be going into camp with a genuine chance to make the big leagues. The Padres did something similar with Paddack last season, following Paddack's big camp. Paddack only had 37.3 IP at AA, so a couple more start, ie no big deal. That said, Paddack was 23 and Gore is 20 for whatever that is worth.

Can Gore make the Padres with a big camp?
If not and assuming normal progression, how long will he stay in MiLB?

J

[cavebird]

MacKenzie Gore? With Paddack, Lamet, Lucchesi, Garrett Richards, and Zack Davies around, the Padres won't be looking for him to make the rotation out of spring training. If he's tearing it up, he'll likely get his chance when someone gets hurt, which, with this group, probably already happened yesterday.

[onejayhawk]

MacKenzie Gore? With Paddack, Lamet, Lucchesi, Garrett Richards, and Zack Davies around, the Padres won't be looking for him to make the rotation out of spring training. If he's tearing it up, he'll likely get his chance when someone gets hurt, which, with this group, probably already happened yesterday.

What? Lamet didn't trip his dog or something? Garrett Richards is still pitching?

It's a reasonable point, because they do have a decent first five and last year they did not. Does that make Gore one of the first wave at the end of April/early May?

J

[Ken]

M(a)cKen(z)ie? Did you leave out those characters as a hint that he's being traded to Arizona?

[revo]

With the depth the Padres have a SP, I have to doubt he makes the team out of ST unless he leaves them no choice.

[GwynnInTheHall]

If the Padres do include Lucchesi in a Betts deal, he might get a shot. He'd have to do what paddock did last ST though. He'd also be on a pitch/start count very similar to Paddack's as well if he does break camp with the big club.

[DMT]

If the Padres do include Lucchesi in a Betts deal, he might get a shot. He'd have to do what paddock did last ST though. He'd also be on a pitch/start count very similar to Paddack's as well if he does break camp with the big club.

Any word on Paddack's IP restrictions this year, if any?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Any word on Paddack's IP restrictions this year, if any?

He won't be on any restrictions this season and should start the year as their #1 barring some uber trade at the last minute

[DMT]

He won't be on any restrictions this season and should start the year as their #1 barring some uber trade at the last minute

Excellent, thanks!

[mjl]

Any word on Paddack's IP restrictions this year, if any?

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/fernando-tatis-jr-injury-improvement

After being shut down when he reached his innings limit at 140 2/3 frames as a rookie, right-hander Chris Paddack is eager to go without restrictions as a sophomore.

“I’m going to go as far as I can, as far as they’ll let me,” he said. “My goal this year is 180 innings. Why not be the force of the staff?”

[Judge Jude]

unless Paddack is now managing the Padres, 180 IP is a lofty goal.

as I said about him last year, this is an absolutely elite arm - but he might be overpriced.

he managed to meet typical bids last year, but this time his price might exceed his production.

outside of fantasy baseball, this guy is a sure thing. but we tend to need value in very quick time frames.

Paddack, then, could frustrate, depending on league parameters.

[Ken]

unless Paddack is now managing the Padres, 180 IP is a lofty goal.

Is it?

This is an interesting topic, I looked back through the last several years at Tommy John surgeries for elite pitchers and came up with a few examples that I think fit well.

1) Walker Buehler - TJ surgery in late 2015
2016 lost season (5 IP)
97 IP in 2017 - recovery year 1
153 IP in 2018 - year 2
183 IP in 2019 - year 3

2) Jacob Degrom - TJ surgery in 2011
111 IP in 2012 - year 1
147 IP in 2013 - year 2
178 IP in 2014 - year 3

3) Jose Fernandez (RIP)

TJ surgery in 2014
64 IP in 2015 - year 1
182 IP in 2016 - year 2

4) Zach Wheeler
TJ surgery in 2015
2016 lost season (1 IP)
86 IP in 2017 - year 1
187 IP in 2018 - year 2
195 IP in 2019 - year 3

The general pattern I see is <100 IP year 1, ~150 IP in year 2, and ~180 IP in year 3. With a couple examples being slightly more aggressive.

Obviously there are many more examples of pitchers who underwent TJ. When picking these, I was looking for players who were clear starters (there are lots of relievers), I was looking for a similar age pitcher, or as close as possible, and I was looking for a similar elite level. I wish I had more data points. Obviously 4 is not enough for a statistical analysis, but at least for an anecdotal account, it seems like all the data is showing the same thing.

For Paddack we have TJ in late 2016
2017 lost season
90 IP in 2018 - year 1
140 IP in 2019 - year 2
?? IP in 2020

Based on the previous examples, I'd say these numbers look very typical and 180 IP is pretty reasonable actually for Paddack's 3rd year off of TJ.

[Gregg]

unless Paddack is now managing the Padres, 180 IP is a lofty goal.

as I said about him last year, this is an absolutely elite arm - but he might be overpriced.

he managed to meet typical bids last year, but this time his price might exceed his production.

outside of fantasy baseball, this guy is a sure thing. but we tend to need value in very quick time frames.

Paddack, then, could frustrate, depending on league parameters.

Paddack was purchase for $18 last year in our 12 team NL only 5x5 $260 budget. He is being kept this year. Attempts to trade for him proves there will be no discount.

Stupid sharks

[Sharky]

Ummm Gore thread, people!