Lamet or Montas

[Sour Masher]

Which of these two sleeper/upside SPs would you want in 2020 and beyond.

[Ken]

Good comparison, I like both pitchers. I'd like to have both of them this year on one team or another.

I think Lamet is the higher upside play due to the elite K's.

[kldub4life]

I really think Montas figured it out last year, and the risk is very low and the likelihood of him being very good this year and moving forward very high.

Whereas Lamet is still a high ceiling play and could go drastically either way.

I think they come at radically different costs though. So the size of the league and makeup of your team come into play.

[Sour Masher]

I think they come at radically different costs though. So the size of the league and makeup of your team come into play.

In my case, they cost about the same to trade for. In general, though, I am seeing ADPs vary, but on average they are very close--where are you seeing one go way higher than the other, and which one is it?

I am leaning Lamet, because of the Ks and upside, but he is riskier, I think. His FB was horrid last year, and he basically only has one really amazing pitch. If the FB was so badd because he was fresh off TJ and he improves it, it is exciting to think what he can do. If that is not the case, he seems to have a lot more downside than Montas. IDK. Maybe I will trade for them both, but will be tough as both guys want Kelenic in the deal.

[kldub4life]

Radically different might have been an over statement.

I've got the Fantasy Baseball Guide sitting here next to me at work lol Montas $14, and Lamet $9.

A couple weeks ago Paul Sporer and Justin Mason both posted their rankings on FanGraphs.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-125-sp-for-2020/

Paul has:

Montas at 21 (3rd tier)
Lamet at 55 (5th tier)

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/justin-masons-top-126-sp-for-2020/

Justin has:

Montas 32
Lamet 55

[Ken]

Lamet goes 1 spot before Montas in NFBC.

For all intents and purposes their ADP is completely even.

[kldub4life]

Lamet goes 1 spot before Montas in NFBC.

For all intents and purposes their ADP is completely even.

In NFBC leagues most owners are going to gamble on upside, and I'd agree if that's what you want to do then Lamet is a good risk because he has demonstrated an elite skill in striking guys out.

In the back of the FBG they have an expert mock following NFBC rules: Montas 145 Lamet 155

https://www.fantraxhq.com/starting-pitcher-rankings-fantasy-baseball/

Fantrax has 5 experts listed here with Montas averaging 31, and Lamet 44

[kldub4life]

In a 1 shot big money league like NFBC I can totally see taking Lamet above Montas.

Looking toward building a perennial contender as a fantasy owner I think Montas is a considerably better pick.

[Ken]

In a 1 shot big money league like NFBC I can totally see taking Lamet above Montas.

That's a mischaracterization of NFBC in my opinion. The big prize is just one component of NFBC, there are many, many more winners of individual leagues. And lots of strategies that involve winning the small leagues rather than the lottery-like grand prize.

[kldub4life]

That's a mischaracterization of NFBC in my opinion. The big prize is just one component of NFBC, there are many, many more winners of individual leagues. And lots of strategies that involve winning the small leagues rather than the lottery-like grand prize.

Even in the individual leagues it's still big money lol (just not as big) and they are 1 year leagues. The initial question in this thread dealt with this year and beyond, so an NFBC ADP is not the most relevant on multiple levels (If NFBC has keeper leagues I am unaware of them).

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, this year matters more, but both are cheap keepers I can keep or extend next year.

[Ken]

Even in the individual leagues it's still big money lol (just not as big) and they are 1 year leagues. .

Confusing - what does the amount of prize money have to do with the strategy? Unless you are saying it is more likely to have "experts" drafting in which case I'd tend to agree...

The NFBC data is generally pretty good, people willing to put up higher stakes and people drafting that early tend to be the more dedicated folks, and not the free Yahoo league... yahoos.

The initial question in this thread dealt with this year and beyond, so an NFBC ADP is not the most relevant on multiple levels (If NFBC has keeper leagues I am unaware of them).

Fair in the general sense, but I'm not clear on how you are differentiating these guys long term. They are the same age, and both have had rocky pasts.

Are you really saying that one of them will be significantly better in the short term and not the long term? If so why? And if not, why is the keeper question even relevant to your analysis?

[chancellor]

Yeah, this year matters more, but both are cheap keepers I can keep or extend next year.

The only reason I wouldn't go Montas is due to the PED issue. Nothing against Lamet, who'd be a fine keeper too, but Montas just looks like he has more overall upside.

[kldub4life]

Confusing - what does the amount of prize money have to do with the strategy? Unless you are saying it is more likely to have "experts" drafting in which case I'd tend to agree...

The NFBC data is generally pretty good, people willing to put up higher stakes and people drafting that early tend to be the more dedicated folks, and not the free Yahoo league... yahoos.

Fair in the general sense, but I'm not clear on how you are differentiating these guys long term. They are the same age, and both have had rocky pasts.

Are you really saying that one of them will be significantly better in the short term and not the long term? If so why? And if not, why is the keeper question even relevant to your analysis?

Maybe we are different but the more money I spend on a 1 year league the more aggressive I will be hence I could see going Lamet's upside with the great strike rate.

Even in a 1 year league that I have been in long term and will continue to be I'd favor Montas because I believe he is a better pitcher and is more likely to help me. In these types of leagues with the same owners typically my goal is to get to the playoffs every year and put myself in the best position to win. With me believing Montas has a better chance to bring me solid value than Lamet he's my guy.

If I am going to be playing in a 1 year league with people I don't really know and all I am concerned about is shooting for the stars and winning 1st place this year (knowing that my strategy might backfire and turn really bad I might choose Lamet (I'm speaking in extremes because I actually really like Lamet and have him in 2 leagues lol).

As for how I am differentiating these 2 moving forward:

I believe Montas has already figured it out as witnessed by his 1st half last year. Call me a believer I think we saw a prospect turn the corner and become a quality big league pitcher. Also don't forget he was a higher thought of prospect coming up as well (50).

Lamet can be absolutely dominant at times no doubt and his upside with the elite K-rate is tantalizing, but I believe a higher percentage of his potential outcomes are poor. He hasn't yet proven to me over a decent sample size of time he can be consistent. For example just last year Montas was under a 3 ERA for every split you can come up with, Lamet has only had one month under a 3 ERA in his career and that was in 2017. Lamet also had a 40 prospect grade as well.

I favor Montas in the short term and long term because I believe he has already shown the ability to be a quality starter at the big league level over a decent sample size. However if each of them live up to their potential this year I can easily see Lamet having more value. I just think the odds of living up to their potential significantly favor Montas (partially because he already has.)

[kldub4life]

Yeah, this year matters more, but both are cheap keepers I can keep or extend next year.

I'd think both of them would be worth keeping if they are cheap, I could easily see both of them being a top 30 starter this year.