Next 3 Years: JD Martinez or Anthony Rizzo

[kldub4life]

Standard 5 categories plus hits, and OPS (H2H 12 teams)

It's a forever Dynasty but I like to look at players (other than prospects) as 3 year projections.

At the moment JD Martinez is the better hitter, but a couple things that play to Rizzo's advantage he is 2 years younger, and it is possible within the 3 year window JD becomes utility only. The leagues has a 20 game position eligibility and it splits out LF, CF, and RF. Last year he had 15 games in left and 24 games in right.

Beyond the 3 year window, I see it favoring Rizzo.

[Sour Masher]

Really close, but I voted Rizzo. JD has been so amazing and so underrated for a long time. Really like him. But putting aside past performance, there are some indicators Rizzo will be better going forward. It is really close, but in a dynasty, I'd take Rizzo.

[TS Garp]

Very close one. Rizzo is incredibly consistent but doesn't have JD's ceiling and is less likely to put up a monster season. With that said, the age difference was the tiebreaker for me.

[Ken]

JD Martinez sucks!

[onejayhawk]

I don't think this is close. If they were the same age, it might be different.

J

[chancellor]

jd martinez sucks!

lolol!

[joncarlos]

I don't see any reason why JDM can't age well, ala Nelson Cruz. Given a 3-year window you have to weight the first year pretty heavily. And the age difference is only 2 years? I would have guessed five!

2020 steamer:

Rizzo .284-32-99-97r-6sb (moderately optimistic given 25 and 27 HR the last 2 years, in 154 and 146 games?)
JDM .301-39-120-102r-3sb (that's pretty optimistic too, IMO, but that's what you've got)

[cavebird]

I went with JDM, too. More or less for the reasons joncarlos gave. He's just the better player.

[Gregg]

I don't see any reason why JDM can't age well, ala Nelson Cruz. Given a 3-year window you have to weight the first year pretty heavily. And the age difference is only 2 years? I would have guessed five!

2020 steamer:

Rizzo .284-32-99-97r-6sb (moderately optimistic given 25 and 27 HR the last 2 years, in 154 and 146 games?)
JDM .301-39-120-102r-3sb (that's pretty optimistic too, IMO, but that's what you've got)

Rizzo has a tricky back that cost him some games in each of the last two years.

[chancellor]

I don't like the trends I'm seeing with JDM, and it's not like he's been injury free. In addition, someone earlier made the point about him potentially not getting enough OF games to qualify, and at DH only, for fantasy purposes, that's a real hit to his value. His SLG has dropped over 130 points the last two years, and ISO says it's real, with a even higher percentage decrease. In particular, he lost 70 points of SLG in 2019 compared to 2018 with what's essentially an identical G/L/F batted ball pattern.

Joncarlos could well be right, and everything will level out, and he'll be the next Nellie. But if I'm making a three-year bet on a pretty premium player, I'm not taking the risk that the trend continues right into crater-land.