2K20: Closer and Bullpen

[onejayhawk]

This is the old thread. After 100 pages, a new one seems appropriate. http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showt...hlight=closers

This is a list of the 2019 RP with value in the top 100 players--BBMonster 12 team, default settings.

Name Team Age
Josh Hader MIL 25.8
Liam Hendriks OAK 30.9
Kirby Yates SD 32.8
Brandon Workman BOS 31.4
Roberto Osuna HOU 24.9
Felipe Vazquez PIT 28.5
Will Smith SF 30.5
Emilio Pagan TB 28.7
Aroldis Chapman NYY 31.9
Taylor Rogers MIN 29.1
Brad Hand CLE 29.8
Seth Lugo NYM 30.2
Hansel Robles LAA 29.4
Hector Neris PHI 30.6
Kenley Jansen LAD 32.3
Ken Giles TOR 29.3

I notice three things immediately.

• The average is over 30, with only Hader and Osuna under 27.
• A number of the pitchers were not in the top 300.
• While several of the pitchers are save leaders, several are not.

Obviously Hader is valuable. Which of the rest would you trust with a mid-round pick? Who are candidates among the lower ranked pitchers? How do spot a valuable pickup before the rest of your league?

J

[cavebird]

What do the numbers by each pitcher mean? A value number (where higher is better) or a ranking number (where lower is better)? I am confused.

That being said, regardless of what the numbers mean, I think we can safely assume that one of those guys won't be in the Top 1,000 players in 2020.

[Sour Masher]

What do the numbers by each pitcher mean? A value number (where higher is better) or a ranking number (where lower is better)? I am confused.

That being said, regardless of what the numbers mean, I think we can safely assume that one of those guys won't be in the Top 1,000 players in 2020.

Hmm, are you talking about the one who is a hebephile? I think that is a pretty safe bet, unless prison league stats count.

[onejayhawk]

What do the numbers by each pitcher mean? A value number (where higher is better) or a ranking number (where lower is better)? I am confused.

That being said, regardless of what the numbers mean, I think we can safely assume that one of those guys won't be in the Top 1,000 players in 2020.

Age. It's in the header.

Past performance no guarantee of future playing time.

J

[SlideRule]

I'd be curious to learn if the (large, and growing number of) closers that gained the job mid-season after having little or no pre-season perceived value are any more or less likely to retain the job into the next season. In other words, if a closer came out of nowhere to grab the closer job and run with it, does that make them any less safe of a bet in a given year to have value the next year compared to more "established" closers? Maybe someone like Ken will pull a few levers on his calculate-o-matic machine and tell us.

Specifically, I have Robles, Rogers, and Jimenez at attractive prices in my AL only, but the question is whether I keep them over other hitters with a less volatile potential outcome for 2020.

[Hornsby]

I'd be curious to learn if the (large, and growing number of) closers that gained the job mid-season after having little or no pre-season perceived value are any more or less likely to retain the job into the next season. In other words, if a closer came out of nowhere to grab the closer job and run with it, does that make them any less safe of a bet in a given year to have value the next year compared to more "established" closers? Maybe someone like Ken will pull a few levers on his calculate-o-matic machine and tell us.

Specifically, I have Robles, Rogers, and Jimenez at attractive prices in my AL only, but the question is whether I keep them over other hitters with a less volatile potential outcome for 2020.

Good question...I just traded Carlos Martinez for a pack of meh (I actually like Jeff McNeil and Spencer Howard, and I'll have the Pads CF if I can figure out who it's going to be)...long winded way of saying that closers are essentially fungible, I'd bet that there's probably something in the neighborhood of a 40 percent turnover during the season.

I like Jimenez better than the other 2...take that for what it's worth.

[cavebird]

I'd be curious to learn if the (large, and growing number of) closers that gained the job mid-season after having little or no pre-season perceived value are any more or less likely to retain the job into the next season. In other words, if a closer came out of nowhere to grab the closer job and run with it, does that make them any less safe of a bet in a given year to have value the next year compared to more "established" closers? Maybe someone like Ken will pull a few levers on his calculate-o-matic machine and tell us.

Specifically, I have Robles, Rogers, and Jimenez at attractive prices in my AL only, but the question is whether I keep them over other hitters with a less volatile potential outcome for 2020.

I feel your pain. I have Robles, Kennedy (clearly only a 2/3 of a season guy), and Oberg in one league. No keeper limits there, but keepers are locked in your lineup, and the blow-up possibilities are, shall we say, not so small for these guys.

[onejayhawk]

I'm tempted to say draft skills not roles, but it's hard to identify the skills. Still, here is the list of the top ten ignoring saves.

Name Team
Brandon Workman BOS
Liam Hendriks OAK
Seth Lugo NYM
Josh Hader MIL
Emilio Pagan TB
Giovanny Gallegos STL
Felipe Vazquez PIT
Yusmeiro Petit OAK
Kirby Yates SD
Daniel Hudson WAS

J

[chancellor]

OneJ - Aroldis Chapman in a league where I need saves. Even in the few times he's struggled, the Yankees have stayed fully committed to him. Osuna, Giles, Hader, Smith, Yates are my next five. Big name closers I'm nervous about - Jansen and Hand. A guy who got the job last year who I think will run with it is Rogers. Pagan is a wild card because Tampa Bay, but he'll deliver good holds and ratios even if they move him out of the closer role.

I don't trust anyone in the gascan of a Boston bullpen. Did that last year and was torched. No, no, no.

[Ken]

I don't trust anyone in the gascan of a Boston bullpen. Did that last year and was torched. No, no, no.

What is it specifically about Boston that you aren't trusting? Cora is gone, and Kimbrel was lights out in 2016-2018.

I think we knew going into 2019 that their bullpen was a mess. There was no clear closer. This year, Workman looks like the clear closer. I don't think it's rational to discount Workman just because Barnes and Brasier were a mess. In fact, just the opposite, I think the mess that those two created give Workman some job security.

[onejayhawk]

Rogers and Pagan are on my watch list and add Hendricks from the lists above.

Of the non-closers Nick Anderson, James Karinchak, Andrés Muñoz, Colin Poche and Diego Castillo. But how many will be getting save chances? In the late going, I'll pay a lot of attention to the second list. Any two of those will do the old FrankenCyYoung candidate.

Technical question. Where would you all set the filters on your spreadsheet? One published set is 60 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 70 K.

What is the position on Edwin Diaz

J

[Judge Jude]

Diaz strongly believes he was tipping his pitches/having signs stolen last year.

a 5.59 ERA with a 3.12 xERA and a monster K rate doesn't add up, at all. he clearly was rattled by his struggles, which only added to his issues as HR rate climbed through the roof.

Mets seem committed to proving that trading for him was a good idea, so he gets a bit of rope. but it's NY, so that isn't unlimited.

classic case of "with a strong keeper list, let someone else take a chance" and "with a weak keeper list, just the kind of guy to take a chance on."

[chancellor]

What is it specifically about Boston that you aren't trusting? Cora is gone, and Kimbrel was lights out in 2016-2018.

I think we knew going into 2019 that their bullpen was a mess. There was no clear closer. This year, Workman looks like the clear closer. I don't think it's rational to discount Workman just because Barnes and Brasier were a mess. In fact, just the opposite, I think the mess that those two created give Workman some job security.

Workman, IMO, is a disaster in waiting. Yes, he jacked up his K-rate to a closer worthy 13+/9. But that came at the expense of control, and he walked over 5.5 batters/9 IP. Add that lack of control in with a BABIP that was a ridiculously low .209 and an equally low HR/FB of under 3%. If those normalize to a point where he's merely moderately lucky instead of lottery-level lucky, it's not going to be good. If they normalize to average, ugh.

Yeah, he has a great curveball and he's using it much more. But he's simply just not anywhere near as good as last year.

[Ken]

Workman, IMO, is a disaster in waiting. Yes, he jacked up his K-rate to a closer worthy 13+/9. But that came at the expense of control, and he walked over 5.5 batters/9 IP. Add that lack of control in with a BABIP that was a ridiculously low .209 and an equally low HR/FB of under 3%. If those normalize to a point where he's merely moderately lucky instead of lottery-level lucky, it's not going to be good. If they normalize to average, ugh.

Yeah, he has a great curveball and he's using it much more. But he's simply just not anywhere near as good as last year.

Careful attributing those stats to luck, often there are underlying skills. Workman's barrel% was a league low 0.7%. That's what drove the low babip.

There's definitely some correction to apply, but not "disaster" levels. His FIP was 2.46 and xFIP 3.33. .173 xBA, .255 xwOBA, .233 XSLG.

[chancellor]

Careful attributing those stats to luck, often there are underlying skills. Workman's barrel% was a league low 0.7%. That's what drove the low babip.

There's definitely some correction to apply, but not "disaster" levels. His FIP was 2.46 and xFIP 3.33. .173 xBA, .255 xwOBA, .233 XSLG.

I'll agree there's some skills - better curve, used more often - but he went from 8.0/7.0% barrel in '17/'18 to 0.7%. If his control were any good, he could survive normalization; i.e, like Kirby Yates. But I'm holding in my belief that he's going to get punished, and punished badly, barring a major improvement in his BB/9 rate.