2k20 Caleb Smith

[Sour Masher]

I'm a sucker for high K guys, because of my format. Smith has the ability to sit them down with the best of them, when he was on. He was looking great in the first half, but faded hard the second. His overall line of 4.52 era, 1.22 whip and 168 ks in 153 innings was uninspiring, but actually better than his career averages to date. And, again, that first have was tantalizing--3.5 era, 1.04 whip, and a drool worth 11k/9. That second half was awful, though, and his home/road splits are also really skewed. He loves pitching at home.

I have the opportunity to trade for him and keep him over Brian Anderson. I am not sure how much of an upgrade that is for me, but, again, I'm a sucker for Ks. What says the ben on Caleb Smith in 2020 and beyond?

[Ken]

Lost velo after that hip injury, that's why the 2nd half was so bad. So if you see something good in spring training, buy.

[Sour Masher]

Lost velo after that hip injury, that's why the 2nd half was so bad. So if you see something good in spring training, buy.

Yeah, read about the lost velo, but it really wasn't much looking at the numbers. About a mile or so off a FB that isn't all about speed, so IDK if that was the whole story. Still, the injury provides a convenient out if you are inclined to think his first half was legit. In my situation, I'm being offered a trade now, for a prospect I like a lot--Logan Gilbert. Normally, I trade the prospect for the major leaguer, but I'd have to bump Brian Anderson off my keeper list and I cannot find a taker for him. I guess I like him more than my leaguemates.

[Ken]

Yeah, read about the lost velo, but it really wasn't much looking at the numbers. About a mile or so off a FB that isn't all about speed, so IDK if that was the whole story. Still, the injury provides a convenient out if you are inclined to think his first half was legit. In my situation, I'm being offered a trade now, for a prospect I like a lot--Logan Gilbert. Normally, I trade the prospect for the major leaguer, but I'd have to bump Brian Anderson off my keeper list and I cannot find a taker for him. I guess I like him more than my leaguemates.

It wasn't just the velo, you are right. He lost his feel for his changeup and his slider wasn't working as well either. But you can see the dramatic shift between the before and after of the injury. That's something that tells me that if he has time to heal there's a good chance he can repeat the 1st half.

Brian Anderson definitely has some value but he has a skill set that screams replaceable to me. High floor, low ceiling.

I think you are right to have pause here. I really want to see Smith adding on the extra velo in spring before I'm fully in, so there's some risk.

How many teams are we talking?

[Sour Masher]

It wasn't just the velo, you are right. He lost his feel for his changeup and his slider wasn't working as well either. But you can see the dramatic shift between the before and after of the injury. That's something that tells me that if he has time to heal there's a good chance he can repeat the 1st half.

Brian Anderson definitely has some value but he has a skill set that screams replaceable to me. High floor, low ceiling.

I think you are right to have pause here. I really want to see Smith adding on the extra velo in spring before I'm fully in, so there's some risk.

How many teams are we talking?

Just 14 teams, though we are deep for a 14 teamer--30 man rosters, 2 IL spots, 20 minor league spots. So it plays like a 16 teamer.

[nullnor]

sounds like smith is better to keep than anderson. but low ceiling but if you spend elsewhere well and that's all you have at 3b you can win with brian anderson. you just hope that he lives up to his potential and gives you a good BA and hits in the middle or higher in the Marlins lineup. he had down year sort of last year, i guess you'd have to look at what the Marlins are doing. if the'll be better but not take his BA spot.

anderson is usually available in random yahoo leagues so can see no takers but he's valuable if you punt the position. and can fill in.

[Ken]

For what it's worth, Caleb Smith goes about 50 picks before Brian Anderson in NFBC drafts.

[Sour Masher]

For what it's worth, Caleb Smith goes about 50 picks before Brian Anderson in NFBC drafts.

Good to know. I should start checking stuff like this. I didn't even realize adp was a thing worth looking at this early, but why wouldn't it be? Of course the crowd knows less than they will, but so do I, and the wisdom of the crowd is a data point.

[Judge Jude]

I will be keeping Smith for a third and final season at a buck in NL-only 12-team 5x5.

have an option to make him 6-L2 this year and then have an option for 11-L1 in 2021. but if he doesn't break out, then I wasted 5 units this year and maybe any small profit that was there. my option has me spending 6+11 = 17 for 2021-22 if I pick up the option.

if I go 1 this year and can't him back for 16 (to equal 17 total) in 2021 - well, then I must have enjoyed one dollar-worthy ride in 2020.

#winwin

bottom line: I like him, too, for the reasons above. but no need to go to the moon to get him....

[tinitoys]

I have him also in my 10 or 12 team NL only at $4 for the next 2 years but he may get drop due to keeper list crunch

[Judge Jude]

at $4 in 10-team NL-only, he'd need a strong spring or you could probably get him back for a buck. if a 10-team takes 60 SPs and a 12-team takes 72, then pitchers who rate in the 50s start to diverge in value among the two leagues. Scherzer and deGrom, not so much.

[cavebird]

I would just stand pat. Caleb Smith might put it together and have the breakout; he might not. Anderson is WYSIWYG, probably barely a keeper in your format, so losing him doesn't both me. But you like Gilbert, and he isn't that far away. Gilbert + Anderson for Smith is the equation and it is probably six of one, half-dozen of the other.

[ThatRogue]

I have Caleb Smith at $2 in a 12 team NL-only with a $280 cap, and I think I stand pat. I’m hoping for a huge profit, but at that price, he should be a nice value, no matter what.

[Gregg]

Yeah, read about the lost velo, but it really wasn't much looking at the numbers. About a mile or so off a FB that isn't all about speed, so IDK if that was the whole story. Still, the injury provides a convenient out if you are inclined to think his first half was legit. In my situation, I'm being offered a trade now, for a prospect I like a lot--Logan Gilbert. Normally, I trade the prospect for the major leaguer, but I'd have to bump Brian Anderson off my keeper list and I cannot find a taker for him. I guess I like him more than my leaguemates.

My first question is what 3B are available in the draft? If slim pickins I probably don't make the trade. But if I know I can improve I don't want to use the spot. He becomes a non-factor in the trade. Plus he could still be a fall back at the draft as your league doesn't like him.

The second question is why so high on Gilbert? Seems ok but not exceptional.

If I can improve on the 3B position or am confident I can get Anderson back (if needed). I would make the trade and role the dice on the high k kid.

[Sour Masher]

I have Arenado and Bergman now at 3b and traded Anderson, so I!have an empty spot. I like Gilbert and prospects are valuable in my league. But really, it comes down to whether I think Smith is worth more than the $5 it would cost to keep him. I am not sure.