2K20: Luis Robert

[kldub4life]

I'm not sure if this is even the right place for this player Luis Robert as I am not really looking at just this season but career thoughts on this uber athletic prospect.

His year last year was something for the ages, and I had my eyes on him before that because of his freakish athleticism.

There is something that terrifies me about him, maybe it's I've been burned by this type of profile before. But as I think about it most prospects with a similiar athletic profile never actually produced like he did last year.

I see if he gets 500 abs that 20/20 is almost a baseline for him.

I have him in 2 dynasty leagues and I am actually thinking of dealing him in one as I think his value is sky high right now, but then I think that might be an awful decision when I see a kid who could average 30/30 for next 5 years.

[onejayhawk]

He's not quite Jo Adell, but there is a lot to like. For one thing, all the usual playing time questions are answered. His new contract might as well be the deed to RF, if not CF.

The current Depth Chart projection has him at 600 PA of .272/.318/.486, 27 HR, 25 SB. That's pretty good for someone age 22 with zero ML AB.

J

[Art Vandelay]

He's not quite Jo Adell, but there is a lot to like. For one thing, all the usual playing time questions are answered. His new contract might as well be the deed to RF, if not CF.

The current Depth Chart projection has him at 600 PA of .272/.318/.486, 27 HR, 25 SB. That's pretty good for someone age 22 with zero ML AB.

J

I'll take the unders on both hr/sb

[cleo]

I think he is going to be a huge roto machine for the next 6-10 years. But I think .272 for this year is too much. I can see something more like ~ .240 for him in 2020.

Even with my lower guess on avg, I would still take the over on sb. Also with anything close to 600 PA, he should have a nice run total (85 or so) even batting lower in that lineup.

[onejayhawk]

I'll take the unders on both hr/sb

Seriously, with 600 PA?

I think he is going to be a huge roto machine for the next 6-10 years. But I think .272 for this year is too much. I can see something more like ~ .240 for him in 2020. Even with my lower guess on avg, I would still take the over on sb. Also with anything close to 600 PA, he should have a nice run total (85 or so) even batting lower in that lineup.

This too. If he hits .270 he won't be that low in the order and RBI chances increase.

He's 22 and there are going to be bumps in the road, but his defense assures PT even if he struggles.

J

[TS Garp]

I'd bear in mind that the Sox didn't run a lot last year. 63 steals in 91 attempts. The 63 steals were 20th in MLB. Tim Anderson was 17/22 in 518 PA's and he showed as much or more speed than Robert in the minors. Robert has the speed to steal 40 bases but it's hard to say how much he'll get the green light. I'd put the over/under at 18. He could obliterate it but he could also be held back based on team philosophy.

[Ken]

I'd bear in mind that the Sox didn't run a lot last year. 63 steals in 91 attempts. The 63 steals were 20th in MLB. Tim Anderson was 17/22 in 518 PA's and he showed as much or more speed than Robert in the minors. Robert has the speed to steal 40 bases but it's hard to say how much he'll get the green light. I'd put the over/under at 18. He could obliterate it but he could also be held back based on team philosophy.

Great analysis.

[kldub4life]

I'd bear in mind that the Sox didn't run a lot last year. 63 steals in 91 attempts. The 63 steals were 20th in MLB. Tim Anderson was 17/22 in 518 PA's and he showed as much or more speed than Robert in the minors. Robert has the speed to steal 40 bases but it's hard to say how much he'll get the green light. I'd put the over/under at 18. He could obliterate it but he could also be held back based on team philosophy.

I believe there is truth in what you are saying but I have one bone to pick: Tim Anderson was 15/19 before the ankle injury and 2/3 after. So he was on pace for his 2nd consecutive 25+ stolen base year.

Also keep in mind in only 1 of his 7 minor league stops has Robert had under a .341 OBP. Whereas in Anderson's 6 minor league stops he was under that mark half the time.

[TS Garp]

I believe there is truth in what you are saying but I have one bone to pick: Tim Anderson was 15/19 before the ankle injury and 2/3 after. So he was on pace for his 2nd consecutive 25+ stolen base year.

Also keep in mind in only 1 of his 7 minor league stops has Robert had under a .341 OBP. Whereas in Anderson's 6 minor league stops he was under that mark half the time.

But Anderson had stopped running even before the injury. He was a perfect 10/10 in steals in 99 PA's in April and then attempted 9 steals over his next 182 PA's the next 2 months. The fact that he was so successful on the bases yet didn't run very much leads me to think it's an organizational philosophy. Moncada only attempted 13 steals last year (he was successful on 10 of them) and he stole 49 and 45 bases over his first two minor league seasons. Steals have always been a very difficult stat to project and they can vary widely year to year based on a number of factors (who remembers when Corey Koskie went from 5 steals to 27 the next year and then back to 10 or when Vlad Sr. went from 9 steals to 37, then to 40 and then never above 15 again?), and they're another reminder of where the interests of fantasy owners and actual MLB teams often diverge. A fantasy owner may think a player with the ability to steal bases, especially efficiently, should be turned loose, but a team may have a different idea.

[chancellor]

I’m going to take the different view, at least vis a vis Adell. I’d take Robert in a second and not look back. I think Robert’s likely to get you much more this year, and even next year. Maybe Adell catches up by 2022.

As of now, Adell is only 20 and got his butt handed to him in AAA. That indicates a few things to me; first, to make AAA at 20 is impressive. Second, he’s not ready yet. Third, unless he’s awesome this year, the Angels will assuredly screw him for arbitration just like they did Trout and just about every other team has done to their young stars.

All this is said after my third IPA, so blast away.

[onejayhawk]

I’m going to take the different view, at least vis a vis Adell. I’d take Robert in a second and not look back. I think Robert’s likely to get you much more this year, and even next year. Maybe Adell catches up by 2022.

As of now, Adell is only 20 and got his butt handed to him in AAA. That indicates a few things to me; first, to make AAA at 20 is impressive. Second, he’s not ready yet. Third, unless he’s awesome this year, the Angels will assuredly screw him for arbitration just like they did Trout and just about every other team has done to their young stars.

All this is said after my third IPA, so blast away.

Want some bitters with that? Maybe you'll get hopping mad.

I agree about the next two years. Over the course of their careers, Adell is targeted higher. The question is how will the next CBA change things.

J

[cavebird]

Want some bitters with that? Maybe you'll get hopping mad.

I agree about the next two years. Over the course of their careers, Adell is targeted higher. The question is how will the next CBA change things.

J

Bitter? Please. Alas, the closest I can get here is Boddington's. I still wish they imported my favorite, Theakson's Best Bitter. But what can you do?

[onejayhawk]

Bitter? Please. Alas, the closest I can get here is Boddington's. I still wish they imported my favorite, Theakson's Best Bitter. But what can you do?

Buy the company.

J

[cavebird]

I'm not sure if this is even the right place for this player Luis Robert as I am not really looking at just this season but career thoughts on this uber athletic prospect.

His year last year was something for the ages, and I had my eyes on him before that because of his freakish athleticism.

There is something that terrifies me about him, maybe it's I've been burned by this type of profile before. But as I think about it most prospects with a similiar athletic profile never actually produced like he did last year.

I see if he gets 500 abs that 20/20 is almost a baseline for him.

I have him in 2 dynasty leagues and I am actually thinking of dealing him in one as I think his value is sky high right now, but then I think that might be an awful decision when I see a kid who could average 30/30 for next 5 years.

Let's do a reality check. Robert is a good prospect, and he will likely be good in fantasy for the next 5/10 years, barring serious injury, but then again so will most of the recent top prospects like Tatis, Hiura, etc.

Let's do a player A, player B, player C thing to put him in comparison with two other top prospects from the recent and not so recent past who also played at the same levels in the minors.

Player A (Luis Robert): Age 21, A+/AA/AAA: 503 PA, 129 K (25.6 K%), .328/.376/.624 (1.001 OPS), 32 HR, 36 SB. Freakishly athletic, great OF defense. Future: TBD.

Player B (not so recent past top prospect): Age 19, A+/AA/AAA: 511 PA, 97 K (19.0 K%), .339/.421/.652 (1.072 OPS), 34 HR, 30 SB. Freakishly athletic, better OF defense than Robert unless Robert some day is in the conversation for best defensive OF in MLB history). Future:
Year 1 in MLB (after being up in September/Postseason of last minor league year) (age 20): .231 AVG, 18 HR, 20 SB
Year 2 in MLB (age 21): .271, 31 HR, 27 SB
Year 3 in MLB (age 22): .275, 26 HR, 24 SB
Year 4 in MLB (age 23): .303, 36 HR, 21 SB
Year 5 in MLB (age 24): .251, 34 HR, 11 SB
Stole 8 bases in Year 6, never stole more than 6 in a season thereafter.

Player C (recent top prospect): Age 19, A+/AA/AAA: 612 PA, 144 K (23.5 K%), .325/.374/.522 (.896 OPS), 21 HR, 44 SB. Freakishly athletic. Good OF defense, but not great mostly because of concentration lapses.
Year 1 in MLB (age 20): .293, 26 HR, 16 SB
Year 2 in MLB (age 21): .280, 41 HR, 37 SB
Year 3 in MLB (age 22): TBD (he's slightly less than 5 months older than Robert).

So, well, Robert is good, but not that good---and silly, crazy good minor league seasons do not necessarily mean that the first year in the majors will be better. The age and K% in the minors worry me about Robert. Hard to know how he will turn out. You'd probably happily take either Player B or Player C's outcomes, but they were both in the majors at the same age that Robert was in low A ball. And the K rate is the biggest worry, because it almost always jumps in the first exposure to major league pitching (remember Crash Davis: "They have ungodly breaking stuff in the bigs."). And if he goes over 30% with the K rate, his average will tank and his opportunities for steals will go way down. I assume he'll be good as a fantasy player and player overall in his career, but I wouldn't expect something particularly HOF-ish. He could be great fantasy wise; that depends on how the steals hold up---and they often don't. And that's a great prospect---like the other great prospects. (My Player B and C, if everyone doesn't know exactly who they are given the obvious hints and that it is me, lol, were both much more highly touted prospects---which is tough compared to Robert.)

[Art Vandelay]

Third, unless he’s awesome this year, the Angels will assuredly screw him for arbitration just like they did Trout and just about every other team has done to their young stars.

I am not sure they "screwed" fishboy. the Angels brought trout up for FORTY GAMES (batting .220) to end his age 19 season...he then played 140 games the next year.