RJEL Early keepers 2020

[GwynnInTheHall]

RJEL 18 team 5x5 with OPA replacing Avg. 15 minor leaguers Standard 23 starters 5 man bench.

I dumped early last season but kind of got buggered as Senzel was called up, Keiboom happened to be on the other owners active roster preventing him for being able to be in my minor league keeper class and Kyle Tucker was 1AB over the minor league keeper max so had to take a roster spot. I decided to Keep Senzel , but traded Tucker for Lamet and a first round upgrade from 10th to 4th. Dealt Keiboom straight up for Berrios Don't know if those were prudent moves but my thining was Value. Carter, though great looking going forward looks like he'll be hard pressed to break camp with a starting gig. Tucker, though a great prospect, ws a $3 value at 6 while Lamet was $12 value at 2 (I use Fangraphs AC.

So I go into the auction with:

Grandal $2b
Franmil $11b
Senzel $6z
Didi $10a
Santander $3a

Clevenger $6/2020
E Diaz $7/2020
Lamet $2a
Cueto $2a
Berrios $9/2020

By FG I have $70+ in value.

there are lots of studs back in the auction and if need be I have options to switch out for Cueto or Santander.

I'll have $200+ going into the auction.

Some of the other options I have ar:re:

La Stella $6Folty $6
Lucchesi $4
R Lopez $1
Britton, Cotton, Gohara, Yamamoto, Porcello all for low keeper pieces.

Thoughts?

All b contracts are eligible for extensions.

Yess I am hoping to contend this season vs some very good teams and owners.

[mjl]

I don't love the Tucker trade, though admittedly with him being an A contract it's not that bad. Senzel's obviously good but you got pretty hosed with the Reds picking up Akiyama and Moustakas - he has a lot of variance in playing time. My concern going into the season for you would be that you don't have any really insane deals other than Clevenger and Grandal (man, Steamer really doesn't like Berrios) and your minors are now basically a handful of well-regarded pitchers who aren't that close to the majors. With the extent of dumping that there is in this league, and how difficult it is to sell minor league pitching, I could imagine you leaving the auction with one of the better teams but not having enough bullets to improve during the season. There are worse things than having cheap expiring contracts that are good for you if the auction goes well and are easily sold if it doesn't, though.

[Hornsby]

RJEL 18 team 5x5 with OPA replacing Avg. 15 minor leaguers Standard 23 starters 5 man bench.

I dumped early last season but kind of got buggered as Senzel was called up, Keiboom happened to be on the other owners active roster preventing him for being able to be in my minor league keeper class and Kyle Tucker was 1AB over the minor league keeper max so had to take a roster spot. I decided to Keep Senzel , but traded Tucker for Lamet and a first round upgrade from 10th to 4th. Dealt Keiboom straight up for Berrios Don't know if those were prudent moves but my thining was Value. Carter, though great looking going forward looks like he'll be hard pressed to break camp with a starting gig. Tucker, though a great prospect, ws a $3 value at 6 while Lamet was $12 value at 2 (I use Fangraphs AC.

So I go into the auction with:

Grandal $2b
Franmil $11b
Senzel $6z
Didi $10a
Santander $3a

Clevenger $6/2020
E Diaz $7/2020
Lamet $2a
Cueto $2a
Berrios $9/2020

By FG I have $70+ in value.

there are lots of studs back in the auction and if need be I have options to switch out for Cueto or Santander.

I'll have $200+ going into the auction.

Some of the other options I have ar:re:

La Stella $6Folty $6
Lucchesi $4
R Lopez $1
Britton, Cotton, Gohara, Yamamoto, Porcello all for low keeper pieces.

Thoughts?

All b contracts are eligible for extensions.

Yess I am hoping to contend this season vs some very good teams and owners.

Good thing that you have a lot of money to spend, because I think that you'll need it. Almost no speed and light on power, IMO. I like your starters, and I expect Diaz to bounce back. I think that you're keeping the right guys, but I agree with mjl...don't like giving up Tucker. He could be last years bum that explodes.

[chancellor]

I think you have the right keepers, too. Like others, don't like the Tucker deal, but OTOH, you get great props from me on the Kieboom deal. A top end SP pair of Clevinger and Berrios is really, really good. And based on the Nats signings and that they're still pursuing Donaldson sure seems to tell me they think Kieboom needs most/all of another year in the minors.

Per mjl's comment above, I think Steamer's completely misguided on Berrios' numbers. Their numbers for him make no sense at all to me.

For your extensions, I'd give Grandal a year. I won't do more than that for a C, but at 7 for two years he should return significant profit. Franmil's a really tough call. I'd take the profit this year and not extend, but I wouldn't argue much against a 1-year extension in case he goes gonzo.

[Ken]

I think you have the right keepers, too. Like others, don't like the Tucker deal

Let me say I'm less pessimistic on the Tucker deal than others here. I like Lamet. A lot.

Per mjl's comment above, I think Steamer's completely misguided on Berrios' numbers. Their numbers for him make no sense at all to me.

I agree, that's extremely odd. I wonder what is driving that projection down?

For your extensions, I'd give Grandal a year. I won't do more than that for a C, but at 7 for two years he should return significant profit. Franmil's a really tough call. I'd take the profit this year and not extend, but I wouldn't argue much against a 1-year extension in case he goes gonzo.

1 year for Grandal, no extension for Franmil

[Ken]

$4 Lucchesi might belong on the keeper list over Cueto

[GwynnInTheHall]

I made some of these moves because of Ken.

He's successful in a similar league format and he espouses value.

Tucker was supposed to be a minor leaguer I kept, but his 51 ABs forced him into a roster spot at $6--FG has him values close to $9 in our league. Lamet is at $2 and valued at almost $15 that's a net $10 in value--something Ken preaches. PLUS I moved from the 10th pick in our minor league draft to 4th. It might not seem like much, but I'm more likely to find an impact minor leaguer at 4 than at 10 IMO.

I definitely don't have the best keepers going in--there are at least 2 teams (MJLs Being one) who have outstanding sets of keepers going in, I'm just trying to keep up.

FWIW my Minor League keeps are:

Luis Patino
Ryan Weathers
Greyson Rodriguez
Corbin Martin
Jorge Guzman
Orvellus Martinez
Hunter Harvey
Luis DeLeon

I have 7 pick to fill out my 15.

I am hoping Harvey and DeLeon can contribute some decent MI help to the roster but I'm not depending on them for anything other than a hope/prayer type contribution.

As to Lucchesi I kept him last season and he underwhelmed, There's also still a chance he'll be traded away from Petco which would alter his value as well. but I am keeping an eye on him and other like Folty should they tear it up in ST.

The one guy I'm on the fence about is Santander--What is the consensus on him?

Oh and thans for the imput!

Heya Chancellor!

[chancellor]

Hi GITH!!

I like Santander, especially at the price you have him. It'd be nice if he walked more, but his ISO and home park sure make the power look real. He hadn't played more than 130 games in a season before last year, and I think he gassed out pretty badly in September. His L/R hitting splits look relatively even (looks like he's moderately better from the right side, but he's far from bad from the left), he's only 25, and he'll probably hit in a very favorable spot.

I think Didi at 10 is more of a risk than Santander at 3, and I'd keep Didi at 10 just like your did, too.

[Teenwolf]

I would extend Grandal to $7. His BB rate gives him a very high floor, and even in this 1 catcher format, as a top 5 earner, he should still provide a ton of profit at $7 for 2 years. Love that ChiSox lineup too.

I wouldn't extend Franmil, might be his last year with any position eligibility. You may not have the trade chips to make a title run, in which case you'll want as many cheap X contracts to deal in a rebuild (at cost guys are annoying to keep when rebuilding). Also, I find that owning more X contracts puts me in more of a contender mindset, which seems to be what you're aiming for.

Agree with all other keeper decisions. I love your cheap Clevenger and Berrios SP duo, as it allows lots of budget room to build a great staff.

[The Dane]

$4 Lucchesi might belong on the keeper list over Cueto

I agree.

On the whole, Doig, I like your keeper choices. We've discussed this before, but pitchers are much weaker keepers in this league than hitters. I know this is a normal situation, but I think it's more extreme in this league. There's always very utilitarian pitchers left over at the end. Far fewer hitters. That said, I like your cheap starters.

[GwynnInTheHall]

So--I just Dealt with the Devil

I get Jose Ramirez $12 (2020 exp contract)

He gets Senzel $6A (can keep and then extend)

I swapped 1st Rd picks I drop from 4th to 16th. And my 4th rd for his 5th.

[The Feral Slasher]

With all your expiring contracts not a bad idea to go hard this year and if u dont compete u will have lots of good trade pieces

[chancellor]

Dang, sweet deal. You spend six more bucks and get a guy with big upside.

[Big Tymer]

So--I just Dealt with the devil.

I’m the Devil now? ��

I just wanted Senzel back on my team and didn’t like having 3 expiring contracts. Plus I like the top-4 of this minor league draft. Wanted Martínez from you as well but nice job not letting me sneak him thru!

[GwynnInTheHall]

I’m the Devil now? ��

I just wanted Senzel back on my team and didn’t like having 3 expiring contracts. Plus I like the top-4 of this minor league draft. Wanted Martínez from you as well but nice job not letting me sneak him thru!

Anytime you deal with the best owner in the league--you're always second guessing