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Was helping a friend who's putting together a simple eMagazine on fantasy baseball, and he's given me permission to share since we both have family commitments that may prevent us from finishing on time. If I do any tiering for him in the next couple months, I'll throw that on here, too.
AL STARTING PITCHERS
ANGELS:
Shohei Ohtani – Returning after TJ surgery and facing a dilemma – while he has a 96+ MPH fastball, his splitter is a really good pitch, and he will have to decide whether the risk to the elbow is worth throwing it as much as he used to. If not, rust and a new pitch mix could lead to a significant initial decline – and if his velocity looks good, that may be a buying opportunity if you don’t have him. Joe Maddon has clearly stated the gloves are coming off relative to his usage as a pitcher and hitter. There’s some risk he doesn’t come back well, but I’m expecting a 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 11 Ks/9, and potential growth in a keeper league.
Andrew Heaney – Living, breathing example of confirmation bias since we all remember his streaks of brilliance. Issue is that often blinds owners to his considerable health risk. Also has had deteriorating HR/9 and a jump in BB/9, though his K rate continues to improve. When healthy, there’s real talent here and he can give you an ERA near 4, WHIP of 1.2, and 10K/9. Your bid or draft round simply hinges on how many innings you think he’ll give you; I’m bidding based on 130 IP.
Dylan Bundy – Value is really driven by how much you think he’ll improve escaping the seventh level of baseball Hell that is Baltimore. He’s only 27, and his arm mileage is moderate at about 500 IP over three years. I don’t think he’ll be awesome, but I really do think he’ll significantly improve to a 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 175 Ks and 12-13 W’s.
Julio Teheran – I’m not sure if it’s a skill, but his ERA has significantly outperformed FIP and xFIP for four years running. Has a decent HR/9 clip, especially in this era. On the bad side, still walks far too many, his stuff is not overpowering, and he’s moving to the AL. I’ve noticed some projections are for a catastrophic regression. I’m negative, but not that much. I’m figuring a mid-4s ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 160 Ks.
Griffin Canning – Called up in 2019, posted a mid-4s ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 96 Ks in 90.1 IP. Unusually, his GB:FB ratio was almost exactly opposite in the majors from the minors. He has some quality stuff, especially his slider and looks to be a quality 3 or 4 SP. His 116 IP total was his most in his MLB career, and he was shut down due to elbow inflammation. I’m banking on a slight ERA improvement to 4.25, low to mid 1.2s WHIP, and 140 Ks in about 140 IP.
ASTROS:
Justin Verlander – I can understand other pitchers complaining that last year’s baseball was slicker and harder than usual, but when you K more than 12/9 and have a 0.80 WHIP, it just seems unseemly. With a normal ball, he’d probably have had 1969 Bob Gibson numbers, and that’s just not fair. He has a two-year run of 1.5 – 1.7 BB/9, 12+ K/9, 200+ IP, 2.5ish ERA, and 290-300 K’s. On the pessimistic side, his BABIP was really low at .218, he’s had really high strand rates for two years running, and he’ll be 37. He’ll be a tier-1 guy, but I’m thinking more like 2.75 ERA/0.95 WHIP/280 Ks.
Zack Greinke – He’s been a model of consistency five of six years, even in the pseudo-Coors that is Chase Field. He’s dropped fastball and slider use and increased curve and change use; has maintained excellent control and limits HR/9. From a fantasy standpoint, his only value decrease comes from a roughly 8 K/9 rate. If you want certainty, Greinke’s your guy – pencil in low 3s ERA, 1.05 – 1.10 WHIP, 160-170 Ks. And while chasing wins is always dicey, his propensity to go at least six innings with this Houston lineup should give him well above average wins.
Lance McCullers – We now move from certainty to almost the ultimate in high-risk, potential high-return starting pitcher. Coming off TJ surgery at the 16-17 month range. His stuff is undeniably filthy, with a low HR/9 rate, really good GB rate, and a solid 10 K/9 IP. He’s historically walked too many (3.0 – 3.5 BB/9) and also has used a lot of pitches to get through innings. He’s also never pitched over 130 IP in the majors. I’m betting Houston will do something to limit his innings even if he stays healthy, so I’m buying him at a value of 125 IP, 140 Ks, 3.75 – 4.00 ERA, and 1.2 WHIP.
Jose Urquidy – There’ll be a lot of competition for the 4/5 SP slots for Houston, but my early money is on Urquidy to land the #4 SP slot. Called up last year and showed exceptional control, though his K rate took a notable hit from minors to majors. He has four legitimate pitches, and for such a young pitcher, seems to have a really good idea how to use them. Threw almost 145 IP in second year after TJ surgery, so should not have any notable innings limitations. I’m thinking 160-170 IP, same number of K’s, 3.75-4.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and has significant upside and growth potential. Not only does he have the Astros renowned pitching expertise, but his stuff is eerily similar to Greinke’s at the same age, and he gets to hang with Zack and soak up pitching knowledge. Yeah, I like him a lot – there’s some guys I’ll go the extra buck or two at an auction. I’m going a full fiver over value to land Urquidy.
Framber Valdez – Those burned by his atrociousness last year may move on to avoid banging your head in frustration. I’ll fully grant he was awful last year after being heavily hyped, but I think there’s post-hype sleeper value here. He had strong K/9 values in the minors combined with an incredibly high GB rate; he also seemed to struggle with control every time he jumped a level and then stabilized at around 3.0 BB/9. Third pitch is a question, and he may well end up in Josh James 2019 role in the bullpen.
Josh James – Electric, power stuff that has yet to be harnessed. Worked out of the bullpen in 2019. Struck out over 14/9 IP. Unfortunately, that came with a walk rate over 5/9 IP and too many gopher balls. He looked good enough in September after an short AAA visit for Houston to put him on the playoff roster. He’ll be given a chance for the #4/5 SP slot, and has two advantages over Valdez – first, James has three legitimate pitches, and second, he throws over 97 MPH. If you have to draft or auction before the SP slots are determined, I’d bet on James getting the #5 SP slot since the worst case fallback is he goes into the bullpen with the same role as last year.
Forrest Whitley – Suspensions, injuries, and suckiness have been the rule for this former uber-prospect the last two years. But the arm talent and five pitches haven’t gone away. Most probably starts in AAA ball; if he pitches well, may get an opportunity if McCullers is hurt or one or two of the other young pitchers flames out.
ATHLETICS:
Mike Fiers – His ERA has outperformed his FIP/xFIP by over a run for two consecutive years. He’s 27-12 over the last two years with a repertoire that looks like a AAA team could batter him. If you’re looking for an explanation how, I believe he’s channeling dark energy from Dormammu and that’s the best I’ve got. Everything screams reversion – declining K/9, increasing BB/9, unusually low BABIP for two straight years, and high-ish strand rates. And since the bill comes due, always, I’m betting on a collapse to a near 5.00 ERA, 1.3+ WHIP, and 110 Ks.
Chris Bassitt – One of the pitchers that’s had a plus velocity bump in recent years, there’s some things to like in his profile, like an improving BB/9 (especially over the second half), increased K rate to nearly one per inning, and most IP in major league career. There’s a potential argument that he feasted on really weak teams – look at his results against the Orioles, White Sox and Tigers. But I’m going with holding the line with a 3.75 – 4.00 ERA, 1.2ish WHIP, 140-150 K’s and low double digit wins. The only reason I’d run away is if his velocity shows unusually low during ST.
Frankie Montas – 2019 numbers were spectacular but are shadowed by benefit of PEDs. Despite the risk, I’m going to hope his long suspension leads to a buying opportunity as I think he can deliver a mid 3s ERA with a 1.15-1.2 WHIP and 150 Ks.
Sean Manaea – Came back from a torn labrum simply dominating in September. Then he was shelled in the playoffs. Given that he’s healthy, I see him as sort of a WYSIWIG pitcher who’ll put up stats similar to 2017/18 with a 4ish ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 130-140 Ks.
Jesus Luzardo – Primarily lat issues (and some shoulder issues) blighted his 2019 season. He was worked into a multi-inning RP role late in the year. He has a dynamic arm and stuff, but he has never gone more than 110 IP in a season, even in the minors. He has capability to deliver dominant ratios and very good 10 K/9 IP rate, but even if healthy, I suspect he’ll be innings limited to 120 – 130 IP.
AJ Puk – Came off TJ surgery last year and pitched for about five weeks out of the bullpen. Features 97-98 MPH fastball and Thor-like 90 MPH slider. Change is a work in progress, but said to be improving. Will be given a chance to start. If he fails to get a SP slot, the A’s will likely put him and his dominant two pitches in the bullpen. Given my belief that Mike Fiers is failing, I’m banking on Puk replacing Fiers sometime around June.
BLUE JAYS:
HJ Ryu – When healthy, he is a low ERA, low WHIP, decent K level machine. Unfortunately, his machine runs a lot like a 70s vintage Corvette; great when its running but in the shop for a lot of repairs. Second issue he’s moving from a very good NL team with a favorable pitchers park to an improving, but not yet great team in the AL East. On top of it, the Blue Jays have some serious defensive questions at both corner infield positions. I’m betting on good health but both a BAA and HR/9 hit, increasing his ERA to the 3.25-3.50 range, WHIP to around 1.15, and 150 Ks.
Tanner Roark – Pretty much a WYSIWIG pitcher, but a slight negative bump for moving to the AL East. I’m looking at mid-4s ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 150 Ks.
Chase Anderson – There’s not a park hit for moving out of Miller Park, but somehow, Anderson has had three consecutive years of low BABIPs (.239 - .266) and there’s nothing in his arsenal that would support those low BABIPs or frighten hitters, even with an improved cutter. On the plus side, I don’t think he’ll get yanked around the way he was in Milwaukee. But I’m buying 4.50 – 4.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 145 K’s.
Matt Shoemaker – Well, it wasn’t his arm, but a blown ACL cost Shoemaker almost all of 2019. This makes three years running where he hasn’t reached 80 IP. 2016 stats are fair to expect if he’s healthy, but given past performance, I’m only considering going after him in the endgame in my AL Only league.
Trent Thornton – Came over from the Astros, and the Jays threw him right into the starting rotation. Numbers were hurt by trying to pitch through a sore elbow – during which time he was bludgeoned by the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. After Detroit clubbed him, the Jays finally realized something was seriously wrong. His BB/9 trend showed improvement as the year progressed; given his performance in the minors, I think that improvement will hold or better further. The improved walk rate should allow for better fantasy metrics, so I’m going with 4.25 – 4.50 ERA, mid to low 1.3s WHIP, and 155 Ks. I’d certainly go get Thornton ahead of Roark or Anderson.
INDIANS:
Mike Clevinger – The good: K rate took a huge jump to near 12/9 IP. BB/9 also improved. Minimized LHB/RHB splits. Velocity at 95+ MPH. Stuff and metrics support him being a top-tier fantasy SP.
The bad: The Indians appear hell-bent on trading their high-end assets like Lindor and Clevinger. If Clevinger stays and Lindor leaves, Clevinger has lost a critical offensive and defensive cog. If Clevinger is dealt to the NL, some AL Only owners will lose his stats.
The projection: Under present state, 2.50 – 2.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 230 K’s and 16- 18 wins.
Shane Bieber – Full year one was pretty much incredible – low 3’s ERA, sub 1.1 WHIP, almost 11 K’s/9, and a miniscule BB/9 rate. On top of that, eyes-on types say Bieber has really improved his curve to an above average pitch. Under present Cleveland state, I think he’ll come very close to repeating 2019 stats.
Adam Plutko – I’ve always thought “Plutko” sounds like a comic-book villain, and his 2019 performance was criminal to many fantasy teams. Worse yet, I see no upside in basic or advanced metrics to indicate that he’ll improve over the 5+ ERA, 1.4+ WHIP, and low K rate. The only way I see him getting any time will be due to injuries or a setback for Carlos Carrasco, and that’s still no reason for you to roster him.
Carlos Carrasco – Fortunately, appears to remain in remission. His surface stats from 2019 were brutal. But BB/9, K/9 and even velocity all looked identical to 2018. I’m hoping to make a value buy on him.
Aaron Civale – Great control, but lacking overpowering stuff. I like him better than Plutko or Plesac for the #4/5 SP slot in Cleveland. I’m a bit more optimistic than others – I like him for 140 IP, 110 K’s, 4ish ERA, 1.24 -1.28 WHIP. It’s regression from 2019, but not disastrous.
Zach Plesac – Much as I’d like a Plesac to be successful, everything in his profile points to a sizeable ERA jump (0.50 – 1.00 points) and another tenth of a point in WHIP. That said, if he can find another 1.5 – 2.0 MPH as Clevinger did, he’d show some upside. Worth monitoring in Spring Training.
MARINERS:
Marco Gonzalez – He’s a very savvy pitcher who gets the most out of his stuff. Problem is that his stuff appears to be diminishing. His FB velocity has dropped more than 2 MPH in two years; BB/9 went up while K/9 went down in 2019 versus 2018. On the plus side, he’s durable and capable of 200+ innings and decent win totals even on a bad Seattle team. But that high IP combined with potentially deteriorating ERA and WHIP could torpedo your team ratios.
Yusei Kikuchi – Wow, that was horrible – 160 IP of ratio destroying ERA and WHIP while delivering under 120 K’s. Some BB/9 improvement in second half, but I see nothing else that would point to a radical improvement. 5+ ERA and mid 1.4s WHIP with minimal strikeouts adds up to avoid at all costs.
Justus Sheffield – The long-touted prospect is almost certain to be handed the #3/4 SP slot in Seattle. He has nothing left to prove in AAA ball. Favorable park, excellent GB rate and some K upside could give a favorable outcome, but lack of control to date creates a huge WHIP risk. He’s an investment, and if I’m running a rebuilding fantasy team, he’s a guy I’d go after.
Justin Dunn – Skipped AAA ball for a cup of coffee in Seattle. Strong minor league K rate, BB/9 improvement in the minors and 4-pitch repertoire has many slotting Dunn in the #4/5 SP spot. Jerry DiPoto, Seattle’s GM, sure seemed to reinforce that in his last major press conference. On the plus side, he went almost 140 IP the last two years so should have no innings limitations this year and he certainly looks to have better stuff than Kikuchi. Again, if I’m a rebuilder, I’d go after him since all reports consider him a strong future SP.
Kendall Graveman – Seattle signed him coming off TJ recovery to provide some back end innings until some of the other future Seattle SPs are ready (most likely Logan Gilbert). His arm appears sound, so he should return to his low to mid 4’s ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 6 K’s/9 IP form.
ORIOLES (AND, YES, WE MUST COVER THEM):
John Means – Previously mediocre lefty roared out to a dominant 1st half with a mid-2s ERA and sub 1.1 WHIP for an awful Baltimore team. Just about every metric and smart fantasy pitching person indicated it wasn’t sustainable, and sure enough, reality slapped Means hard in the second half. He’s a FB pitcher in a park and division that typically punishes all but the best FB pitchers, but his control gives him some marginal upside. Figure mid-4s ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6-7 K’s/9 in Baltimore. There’s upside if he’s traded to a place that forgives his FB tendencies.
Alex Cobb – Had back issues, and decided to get everything fixed while out – back, hip, knee. Arm is sound. Was pretty heavily battered first year in Baltimore in 2018 when last reasonably healthy, and that’s with a slight velocity increase from when he came in the league in 2013. There’s nothing in the 2018 profile that points to an upturn, so ignore those who are pointing to his numbers with the Rays and fully expect an upper 4’s ERA, mid to upper 1.3s WHIP, 6 K/9, and minimal wins.
Asher Wojciechowski – Another FB pitcher in Baltimore with two significant negatives compared to Means – first, he’s right-handed, and second, he has nowhere near the control Means does. Unless Baltimore signs a couple of innings eaters, Woj is likely to supply your team with 150+ IP of ratio destroying innings. My command of Polish is limited, but I suspect Wojciechowski means “buy a middle reliever instead”.
Kohl Stewart – Once a well-regarded prospect, the Twins dumped him after multiple mediocre minor league seasons. Baltimore signed him, and he has a decent chance of slotting in the #4/5 SP slot. On the plus side, he’s a GB pitcher, and Baltimore recently signed Iglesias at SS. On the minus side, his control isn’t great (a shade below 3.0/9), he doesn’t strike out many (about 6.0/9), and he’s pitching for Baltimore. Might be some upside if he can improve his control, but I see a baseline of and ERA around 5, WHIP around 1.4, and 110 K’s.
RANGERS:
Corey Kluber – Klubot programming was hacked, leading to his first injury riddled season in as long as I can remember. He’s now in Texas, arguably the most challenging pitching park in the AL. Key questions are whether the year off will impact his velocity and/or control. And, given Kluber’s history in April, those questions may not start getting adequately answered until the weather warms. I’m paying for him normalizing in the mid-3’s ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9-10 K’s/9 and 180-190 IP.
Lance Lynn – Lost some weight to get down in the 280 pound range, changed his pitch pattern and selection, and found some velocity. But the biggest shock improvement for me was Lynn’s control, which improved around a full walk/9 IP over his career norms. His change in GB/FB ratio appears driven by pitching more frequently high in the zone, and he has the velocity to pull it off. Metrics support him doing it again; your value should be driven by whether you believe he can keep that big body healthy for 200 IP again. He’s a guy I’ll go an extra buck or two on if I need K’s.
Mike Minor – ERA dropped, K rate went up, and BABIP normalized. On the minus side, jump in BB/9 to 2.9 drove a WHIP increase to above 1.2. And it’s the first time he’s crossed 200 IP since his peak years with the Braves in 2013. He’s a guy who I think would be hurt more than many by a decrease in velocity, as it could make it more difficult to set up his often-used premier change. I think he’s good for an upper 3’s ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 8.5 Ks/9 IP and I’m willing to pay for about 170 IP.
Jordan Lyles – Vastly better in Milwaukee after his 2019 Pittsburgh fiasco, worked himself into a pretty good payday in Texas. The Brewers had him work his fastball extensively up in the zone and tweaked his curve a bit; this seemed to help his control. But much of his improvement was BABIP driven, as his time in Milwaukee had him at about a .220 BABIP. Figure him for a 4.25 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 150ish Ks, with some upside potential.
Kyle Gibson – I have friends with ulcerative colitis. It’s nasty. That Gibson did anything last year is impressive; he must simply love to compete. Rangers signed him based on his condition continuing under control; if so, he’s increased velocity to around 93 MPH, K/9 has improved to about one per inning, and control has even marginally improved. He’s a risk/reward play; I think he’s good for an upper 3’s ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 175 K’s if healthy. But if his health goes south, he’ll still try and compete – and likely hurt you across the board.
RAYS:
Blake Snell – I think pretty much all of us expected some reversion to mean after his brilliant 2018 season, just not the relative disaster that was 2019. But a BABIP increase of over 100 points/strand rate decrease of over 16 points combined with injuries spiked his ERA, cut his K’s and increased WHIP by nearly 30%. Amidst all that, his K rate jumped to over 12.3 K/9, walk rate held about the same, and he still averaged nearly 96 MPH. Think buying opportunity to the tune of 3.25 – 3.50 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 200+ K’s with upside and downside based on health. I’d throw a couple extra bucks to get him in an auction.
Charlie Morton – Yeah, sure, every pitcher who’s seemingly 70 years old puts up elite numbers and improves his K/9 while significantly improving his BB/9. And the elite numbers came with reasonably normal BABIP and strand rates; ERA matches up well with FIP/xFIP. Fastball dropped a bit, but is still well over 94 MPH. Want pure comedy gold? Watch hitters try and square up a Charlie Morton curveball. Seriously, he’s 36 and has had past health problems, but everything else points to a repeat. I’m taking the chance and paying full value for him if I have to.
Tyler Glasnow – Harnessed impressive stuff early with much improved control and put up staggeringly good results. Then was diagnosed with the dreaded “Forearm strain” and missed about four months. He’s presumably healthy, with massive upside. He’s a guy I’ll go for aggressively in shallower leagues where replacement value is higher. But the risk of a “forearm strain” will have me out pretty early in an AL-only league.
Ryan Yarbrough – Often used as a “bulk pitcher” behind an opener. Showed ultra-premium control in majors significantly better than he did in minors. But was consistent with that control for over 140 IP. Plus, he’s historically been healthy, so will likely be turned loose for 170+ IP of great WHIP, good ERA, and a 8-9 K/9 strikeout rate. If TB uses him as they did last year, it’s a double-plus bonus. He gets put in a position where he needs to throw fewer innings to get wins, and if you’re in a starts-limited league (like most ESPN leagues), he counts less against your start total.
Yonny Chirinos – Solid in 1st half. Crashed and burned in 2nd half, then injured…or, that might have been why he crashed and burned in addition to the ridiculously unlucky strand rate. Good velocity, excellent control, decent K rate. ERA around 4, 1.2 WHIP, 130-140 K’s is my buying line.
RED SOX:
Chris Sale – The metrics all say “buy” – FIP, xFIP, xERA all point to an ERA close to 3.00. K/9 is still well over 13. BB/9 did regress some, but is still pretty good at 2.3/9. GB/FB rate nearly identical to previous dominant seasons. Buuuuuut, he’s a SP with a questionable elbow who throws more than 38% high-effort sliders. And a second consecutive year where he didn’t hit 160 IP. And a year where he gave up 5 ER or more in 28% of his starts. And a bullpen that all too often uses gasoline to put out fires. If I can get him for a bargain, maybe. But I doubt he’ll go for much below full value in my AL only league.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Stayed healthy, and Boston turned him loose. Resulted in an uptick of 73 IP. Tom Verducci fans (which I am definitely NOT) should avoid ERod next year. All others should look at the moderate upticks in K/9 and WHIP which seem to line up pretty well with his other metrics, balance the risk of the Boston bullpen, and buy more of the same.
David Price – Multiple injuries finished with wrist surgery, recovery timing in question. In addition, AL only league players who lose stats if traded to NL are at significant risk since Boston would give him away and ship truckloads of cash (or maybe Mookie Betts) for anyone who’d take on his contract and send back a quality prospect if Mookie is involved. If I’m in a mixed league, I think of Price the way we used to think of Rich Hill – about 100-110 IP, but really good IP at mid to low 3’s ERA, sub 1.1 WHIP, and 9-10 K’s/9 and anything above 110 IP is gravy.
Nathan Eovaldi – I liked him. Paul Sporer, who is really, really smart, liked him and had him in the upper 30’s in his SP rankings. Boston apparently really liked him. Well, that went up in flames. Control blew up, followed shortly by Eovaldi’s elbow blowing up, followed by bullpen work. He still has elite velocity, so I’d not argue with anyone who wants to take an endgame chance on him. It just won’t be me.
Martin Perez – Some alien took over Martin Perez for about the first eight weeks of the season. Sadly, for his fantasy owners, the alien was recalled to Proxima Centauri at the end of May, and the real Martin Perez took over. The real Martin Perez walks too many, strikes out too few, and gives up hits…lots of hits. He’s been flat-out terrible for five years running; he’s essentially been the Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog for fantasy owners for a long time. My bold prediction is he’ll be an even larger flaming disaster in Fenway and the AL East in 2020.
ROYALS:
Brad Keller – Shut down for a month after compiling a workload of 165 IP over five months. He’s a pitch to contact type who seems to have significant improvement as his BB/9 rate moves close to or below 3.0. He’s pretty young (24) and should be allowed a full workload this year. That points to 180-190 IP, 4.5ish ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 130-140 K’s. There’s some upside in ERA and WHIP if he continues to polish and improve his control.
Danny Duffy – Bank on 140-150 IP, 2-3 DL visits, low 4’s ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8 K/9 IP, and 7 to 9 wins on a bad Royals team.
Jake Junis – He has a slider-heavy repertoire, but hangs far too many of those sliders, which are then launched into satellite level orbit. He has a decent K/9, but awful HR/9 and declining control. The 2017/18 version was serviceable with a 4.3ish ERA, high 1.2s WHIP, and around 160 Ks. The 2019 version is not useable in any format unless your format includes “home run distance allowed”.
Mike Montgomery – A few years ago, I really thought he’d turn into a serviceable starting pitcher. Instead, he gives up too many walks (3.4/9), strikes out too few (about 6.8/9), and doesn’t show the velocity or potential dominant pitch to change that pattern. If he starts and he’s on your team, he’ll likely punish you to the tune of and ERA around 5, 1.45 WHIP, and minimal K’s.
Glenn Sparkman – Terrible K rate for someone who can hit over 94 on his fastball. Batters hit .293 against him while homering twice per nine innings. About 136 IP of an unholy 6ish ERA and 1.5+ WHIP. If he’s nominated at your auction, start shotgunning a beer – both to celebrate him being on an opposing roster AND to avoid accidentally bidding.
TIGERS:
Matthew Boyd – Dominant 1st half, with impressive year-long gain to 11.6K/9 IP. Control diminished in 2nd half, and HR/9 jumped to ERA-crushing levels. FIP and xERA point to improvement. Been a frequent name in trade talks, so AL owners who lose stats if he’s traded to the NL must beware. He comes with ERA risk, but he’s been durable, and SPs who can give you a mid-1.2 WHIP and 220-240 K’s don’t grow on trees. In a mixed league, I’m all over him and hope he’ll escape Detroit.
Daniel Norris – Pitched over 140 IP for the first time since 2016. Control and GB rate improved and both look pretty sustainable, as does much improved WHIP. K/9 even slightly improved, approaching 8 K’s/9. Reduced slider use, increased change use. Detroit controlled his innings by starting him and pitching him exactly three innings in each of his last nine outings – meaning he got exactly zero wins during that span. Assuming he slots in as Detroit’s conventional #2 SP and the gloves come off, I’m looking at continued growth to 150-160 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 140-150 K’s.
Spencer Turnbull – I have to admire anyone who guts out a 3-17 record in Detroit. His spectacularly ugly 2nd half was driven at least in part by a really high BABIP and really low strand rate. But he must improve control to progress; there’s plenty of power and certainly, can deliver one K/inning or more. His downside risk will be ratio-destroying to your fantasy team. But if you’re rebuilding, I’d recommend rolling the dice on him in the endgame. Normalized BABIP/strand rates and modest control improvement could give you a serviceable 4ish ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 170+ k’s.
Jordan Zimmerman – Had a brilliant first outing. Then arm trouble quickly set in, and took a profile with no room for error and cratered his year, and any fantasy owners who held him for more than a couple of starts. Suffice to say, 2015 is not coming back.
Michael Fulmer – Will theoretically return at the AS Break after TJ surgery. If he comes back whole, has capability to deliver 3.75ish ERA, 1.15ish WHIP, and 7 K’s/9 IP. He’s worth an endgame shot, especially if your league has DL slots. There’s not a lot of SPs who have his proven stats AND a 95+ MPH fastball.
TWINS:
Jose Berrios – Three years ago, I thought Berrios would be a top 2 or 3 AL only SP by 2020. He’s not that, but he’s a well-proven, very reliable SP who’ll give you 190-200 SP, 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and 190-200 K’s. In an AL-only league, I’d pay a premium for his reliability.
Jake Odorizzi – Found about 2 MPH velocity while improving control over 2017/18. Resulted in great first half, second half had a BABIP hit drive his ERA up. If velocity holds, his uptick to 10 K’s/9 looks maintainable. If you’re into someone on a free agent drive, Odorizzi is your guy. I’m buying at 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 160 IP and 170 K’s.
Homer Bailey – Up and down in KC, with some really good flashes that hadn’t been seen from him in years. Traded to Oakland, turned into SuperHomer and became near-dominant. The eyeball test looks like he’s developed a really, really good splitter; the metrics call it good. Given all his arm troubles and age, I just can’t believe. I could be convinced to take an endgame chance on him, but am pretty sure he’ll go for well over that in my AL Only league.
Michael Pineda – You know it’s coming: you can’t spell Pineda without PED. Was looking dominant upon his return until busted. Value will likely be driven by stashability/rebuilding status. If he stays healthy, he has high upside and a not-awful downside, with something like 2017 stats – 4.3ish ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and a bit under a K per inning. But health sans PEDs is really the key issue.
Randy Dobnak – Excellent control, great GB rate. K rate in majors in limited data set was much higher than minors, so don’t get too excited. Barring a really bad Spring Training, appears to be locked in for #4 SP role while Pineda and Hill are out. Given that 3/4/5 in Minnesota are now Bailey, Pineda, and Hill, I also believe there’ll be plenty of room for starts later in the season if he performs acceptably early. Looks like a solid ratios pitcher, with a 6K/9 IP rate for now; good upside to pitch himself into a starting slot in the future as well.
Rich Hill – Had pseudo-TJ surgery, and given history and age, plan on him not returning until the AS Break. For this season, think 50-60 IP, mid-3s ERA with upside, 1.10 WHIP, and 65-80 K’s. Downside is you get nothing out of him.
Devin Smeltzer – Finesse lefty with sub-90s fastball. I love how he competes, but arsenal runs on razor’s edge of MLB survival. I think he needs a sub-2.0 BB/9 rate just to make it as a SP. May get starts early, but don’t bank on him lasting in the rotation beyond June.
Brusdar Graterol – Should start simply because he has the greatest name in baseball. Will battle for a SP spot during Spring Training; has a big-time power fastball, quality slider, and, well, not a lot else yet. Reached AAA ball last year, but the Twins used him out of the bullpen to prep him for that role in the playoffs. Barring an outrageously good Spring Training, I suspect the 21-year old will be sent to AAA ball if the Twins want him to start in the future, or the bullpen conversion will begin in earnest with the tag of “future closer”.
WHITE SOX:
Lucas Giolito – Realized what he was doing wasn’t working, and changed mechanics and pitch mix going into 2019. Um, well, yeah, that worked pretty good. Gained 2 MPH on his fastball. Still may be some margin for a buying opportunity – ERA jumped to 4.24 in the second half and he only had 3 wins. However, his BB/9 and K/9 continued to improve through the second half. And the White Sox have added Yasmani Grandal behind the plate – not that McCann was bad, but Grandal is even better regarded defensively. And Giolito’s still only 25. I’d overspend by a notable margin to get him – his base is very, very good and his upside is almost 2018 Justin Verlander.
Dallas Keuchel – Doesn’t miss bats, premium control a distant memory, and velocity sits well under 90. GB rate is still elite. The White Sox will likely feature two excellent defensive infielders – Madrigal at 2B and Moncada at 3B, but 1B isn’t very good, and Anderson at SS has been very inconsistent - but ranging from poor to average. I’m paying for 180 IP of 4 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 150 K’s, with upside if BABIP luck is on his side.
Gio Gonzalez – Another finesse lefty, but with a much lower GB rate than Keuchel. Milwaukee got him out of games early last year – typically shortly after the second time through the lineup, which resulted in better ratios and decreased wins. If the White Sox use him more conventionally, 2018 stats with ERA risk is most likely outcome.
Reynaldo Lopez – Came into 2019 highly regarded, and then proceeded to kill his believers in the first half with a 6+ ERA and 1.6 WHIP. Second half featured improved control rate (2.7 BB/9), velocity (96+ MPH), and K rate (8.5 K/9). That translated to improvement – but only to a 4.63 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, which still aren’t very good. The arm talent says there’s upside, but the metrics say he’s a 4.50 – 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 170-180 K pitcher.
Dylan Cease – Great arm talent, huge fastball, seemingly only a vague idea where the ball is going. 4+ BB/9 combined with a high HR/9 and a hard contact rate over 30% indicates a lot needs to be fixed. With the White Sox going for it this year, Cease may well be moved into a bullpen role unless results start improving early.
Michael Kopech – Will be about 18 months off TJ surgery at start of season. And talk about arm talent! Will battle Lopez and Cease for SP spot in Spring Training. He’s another guy with a huge arm, control issues and interesting mechanics. On the plus side, his change was showing real progress before the injury. If he doesn’t win a SP spot, he will fit very well into the back end of the White Sox bullpen, where his stuff could result in really, really good numbers.
YANKEES:
Gerrit Cole – He’s simply the best (and richest) pitcher in MLB right now, and is still under 30. Only possible risk I can see is adjustment to New York media and rabid fanbase. He’s likely learned all he can from Houston. He combines excellent control with crushingly elite stuff. He’s been excellent against LHBs for two years running, a trait that will serve him well in New York. Given the paucity of high-end SPs, I’d seriously consider taking Cole with a top-3 pick in a redraft league.
Masahiro Tanaka – World-class splitter failed him in 2019, resulting in 2nd half collapse (5.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP). Whether it’s the baseball, his elbow, phase of the moon, or some combination thereof, his K rate dropped into the mid 7s/9, ERA increased to mid-4s, and WHIP to mid 1.2s. I’m betting on the decline holding and those numbers staying about the same.
James Paxton – When healthy, still has near-elite stuff, though control took a hit in 2019 with walk rate increasing about one per inning to 3.3 BB/9. Walk rate and results were notably better in 2nd half. Bank on 2 DL stints, 150-160 IP, 170-180 K’s, upper 3s ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Given the strength of the NYY bullpen and offense, better than average chance for good win totals as well.
Luis Severino – Those who read my work from 2-3 years ago know I was big-time amped on him in 2017 and 2018. Still only 26, I suspect the Yankees will have him on a strict pitch count early. That, in addition to knocking off rust, could well lead to very mixed first half results. If he avoids injury setbacks, second half should return to his very good 3.00 – 3.25 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 10.5 K’s/9 IP numbers. If you’re in a keeper league, I’d be looking to value shop him onto your roster.
JA Happ – Well, that was an ugly introduction to New York. Worse yet, it doesn’t appear to be driven by bad BABIP luck. For years, got most out of what he had, but dropping K/9 and increasing HR/9 sure seem to indicate what he has isn’t very good anymore. If he starts, he’ll likely get more than deserved wins due to the Yankee offense and bullpen, but I don’t see anything that indicates he’ll be better than a 4.50 – 5.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 140 K pitcher over a full season.
Jordan Montgomery – Probable door #1 if Yankees decide to move on from Happ or Tanaka/Paxton/Severino suffer early injuries. Pitched a handful of innings after TJ and subsequent shoulder injury. Could be very solid back of rotation arm, especially knowing they only have to get 5-6 innings out of him. My impression is he’ll start as a LR in the bullpen, but move fairly early into the rotation due to injury and/or suckitude. There’s likely value here.
Domingo German – Out most of the first half, the shiny 18 wins last year is still going to attract a lot of attention. There’s some good stuff – improved control last year, dropping his BB/9 below 2.5/9, a 9+K/9 rate, and improving secondary offerings. But declining velocity, high HR/9 rate, and a 4+ ERA combined with a very favorable sub-.260 BABIP are alarming. Given the health risk of the Yankees starters and the combustion risk with Happ, he could well be the #3 as soon as he comes back. I have to admit, I thought I’d like him given the BB:K ratio, but there’s too many red flags for me, even with the Yankee offense and bullpen quality. He’ll go for more than I’m willing to pay unless he makes it to the $2-4 level in my AL-only.
SOME RANDOM FREE AGENTS:
Andrew Cashner – For a while, it appeared the 2017 deal Cashner cut with Satan was still in play. Then he was traded, then it got ugly, and then he was sent to the bullpen – where he even got a save, which says more about the condition of the Red Sox bullpen than anything. On the plus side, he’s upgraded his change to at least an average pitch, he’s durable, and he’ll pitch out of the bullpen if needed. He’s not signed yet, but I expect someone will bring him in to chew up 120-150 innings.
Taijuan Walker – Arguably the most talented of the free agents out there, he was non-tendered but is many months off TJ surgery. Lived and died with a 94+ MPH fastball and three average to below average secondary pitches. Unless there’s health issues I’m not aware of, he could help any number of teams.
Aaron Sanchez – That voice whispering about his really good 2016 numbers? It’s a Will-OWisp designed to lead you to a place where he’ll suck the life force out of your fantasy team. Was non-tendered by the Astros. Listen, my view is if the Astros don’t think they can fix him, he’s probably unfixable.
Alex Wood – Back injury wrecked 2019 season. I’m avoiding since back injuries scare me off, but I could not argue with anyone who takes an endgame flier on him, especially if he lands in a pitchers park.
Matt Harvey – No, just kidding.
Jhoulys Chacin – I’d say “just kidding” here, too, but I’ve seen two recent articles advocated him as a value SP available. As a Brewer fan, I’ve watched Chacin a lot, and the metrics don’t lie. His formerly excellent slider is now very average, his fastball is straight and lacking velocity, and his other secondary pitches just aren’t good. He is pretty durable, so a rebuilder might sign him to soak up beatings and innings, but you should most definitely not.
Ivan Nova – Added a slider in 2019 to try and stem his decline, and it did not go well. Increasing ERA, declining K/9 to under 6.0, increasing BB/9 and increasing BAA all tell you this will most likely get worse and not better. Opponents his .300 off him last year, and luck had little to do with it.
Trevor Cahill/Jeremy Hellickson – The formula for both is pretty simple. A) Get signed. B) Stay healthy. C) Make sure their change works. If all those things happen, either can provide serviceable numbers in a deep league. If any fail, it’s ugly.
Drew Smyly – While I have little faith he can stay healthy, he did put together a decent run over a dozen starts with the Phillies last year, including a very good September with a 3.65 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 over five starts, with only one clunker.
AL STARTING PITCHERS
ANGELS:
Shohei Ohtani – Returning after TJ surgery and facing a dilemma – while he has a 96+ MPH fastball, his splitter is a really good pitch, and he will have to decide whether the risk to the elbow is worth throwing it as much as he used to. If not, rust and a new pitch mix could lead to a significant initial decline – and if his velocity looks good, that may be a buying opportunity if you don’t have him. Joe Maddon has clearly stated the gloves are coming off relative to his usage as a pitcher and hitter. There’s some risk he doesn’t come back well, but I’m expecting a 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 11 Ks/9, and potential growth in a keeper league.
Andrew Heaney – Living, breathing example of confirmation bias since we all remember his streaks of brilliance. Issue is that often blinds owners to his considerable health risk. Also has had deteriorating HR/9 and a jump in BB/9, though his K rate continues to improve. When healthy, there’s real talent here and he can give you an ERA near 4, WHIP of 1.2, and 10K/9. Your bid or draft round simply hinges on how many innings you think he’ll give you; I’m bidding based on 130 IP.
Dylan Bundy – Value is really driven by how much you think he’ll improve escaping the seventh level of baseball Hell that is Baltimore. He’s only 27, and his arm mileage is moderate at about 500 IP over three years. I don’t think he’ll be awesome, but I really do think he’ll significantly improve to a 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 175 Ks and 12-13 W’s.
Julio Teheran – I’m not sure if it’s a skill, but his ERA has significantly outperformed FIP and xFIP for four years running. Has a decent HR/9 clip, especially in this era. On the bad side, still walks far too many, his stuff is not overpowering, and he’s moving to the AL. I’ve noticed some projections are for a catastrophic regression. I’m negative, but not that much. I’m figuring a mid-4s ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 160 Ks.
Griffin Canning – Called up in 2019, posted a mid-4s ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 96 Ks in 90.1 IP. Unusually, his GB:FB ratio was almost exactly opposite in the majors from the minors. He has some quality stuff, especially his slider and looks to be a quality 3 or 4 SP. His 116 IP total was his most in his MLB career, and he was shut down due to elbow inflammation. I’m banking on a slight ERA improvement to 4.25, low to mid 1.2s WHIP, and 140 Ks in about 140 IP.
ASTROS:
Justin Verlander – I can understand other pitchers complaining that last year’s baseball was slicker and harder than usual, but when you K more than 12/9 and have a 0.80 WHIP, it just seems unseemly. With a normal ball, he’d probably have had 1969 Bob Gibson numbers, and that’s just not fair. He has a two-year run of 1.5 – 1.7 BB/9, 12+ K/9, 200+ IP, 2.5ish ERA, and 290-300 K’s. On the pessimistic side, his BABIP was really low at .218, he’s had really high strand rates for two years running, and he’ll be 37. He’ll be a tier-1 guy, but I’m thinking more like 2.75 ERA/0.95 WHIP/280 Ks.
Zack Greinke – He’s been a model of consistency five of six years, even in the pseudo-Coors that is Chase Field. He’s dropped fastball and slider use and increased curve and change use; has maintained excellent control and limits HR/9. From a fantasy standpoint, his only value decrease comes from a roughly 8 K/9 rate. If you want certainty, Greinke’s your guy – pencil in low 3s ERA, 1.05 – 1.10 WHIP, 160-170 Ks. And while chasing wins is always dicey, his propensity to go at least six innings with this Houston lineup should give him well above average wins.
Lance McCullers – We now move from certainty to almost the ultimate in high-risk, potential high-return starting pitcher. Coming off TJ surgery at the 16-17 month range. His stuff is undeniably filthy, with a low HR/9 rate, really good GB rate, and a solid 10 K/9 IP. He’s historically walked too many (3.0 – 3.5 BB/9) and also has used a lot of pitches to get through innings. He’s also never pitched over 130 IP in the majors. I’m betting Houston will do something to limit his innings even if he stays healthy, so I’m buying him at a value of 125 IP, 140 Ks, 3.75 – 4.00 ERA, and 1.2 WHIP.
Jose Urquidy – There’ll be a lot of competition for the 4/5 SP slots for Houston, but my early money is on Urquidy to land the #4 SP slot. Called up last year and showed exceptional control, though his K rate took a notable hit from minors to majors. He has four legitimate pitches, and for such a young pitcher, seems to have a really good idea how to use them. Threw almost 145 IP in second year after TJ surgery, so should not have any notable innings limitations. I’m thinking 160-170 IP, same number of K’s, 3.75-4.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and has significant upside and growth potential. Not only does he have the Astros renowned pitching expertise, but his stuff is eerily similar to Greinke’s at the same age, and he gets to hang with Zack and soak up pitching knowledge. Yeah, I like him a lot – there’s some guys I’ll go the extra buck or two at an auction. I’m going a full fiver over value to land Urquidy.
Framber Valdez – Those burned by his atrociousness last year may move on to avoid banging your head in frustration. I’ll fully grant he was awful last year after being heavily hyped, but I think there’s post-hype sleeper value here. He had strong K/9 values in the minors combined with an incredibly high GB rate; he also seemed to struggle with control every time he jumped a level and then stabilized at around 3.0 BB/9. Third pitch is a question, and he may well end up in Josh James 2019 role in the bullpen.
Josh James – Electric, power stuff that has yet to be harnessed. Worked out of the bullpen in 2019. Struck out over 14/9 IP. Unfortunately, that came with a walk rate over 5/9 IP and too many gopher balls. He looked good enough in September after an short AAA visit for Houston to put him on the playoff roster. He’ll be given a chance for the #4/5 SP slot, and has two advantages over Valdez – first, James has three legitimate pitches, and second, he throws over 97 MPH. If you have to draft or auction before the SP slots are determined, I’d bet on James getting the #5 SP slot since the worst case fallback is he goes into the bullpen with the same role as last year.
Forrest Whitley – Suspensions, injuries, and suckiness have been the rule for this former uber-prospect the last two years. But the arm talent and five pitches haven’t gone away. Most probably starts in AAA ball; if he pitches well, may get an opportunity if McCullers is hurt or one or two of the other young pitchers flames out.
ATHLETICS:
Mike Fiers – His ERA has outperformed his FIP/xFIP by over a run for two consecutive years. He’s 27-12 over the last two years with a repertoire that looks like a AAA team could batter him. If you’re looking for an explanation how, I believe he’s channeling dark energy from Dormammu and that’s the best I’ve got. Everything screams reversion – declining K/9, increasing BB/9, unusually low BABIP for two straight years, and high-ish strand rates. And since the bill comes due, always, I’m betting on a collapse to a near 5.00 ERA, 1.3+ WHIP, and 110 Ks.
Chris Bassitt – One of the pitchers that’s had a plus velocity bump in recent years, there’s some things to like in his profile, like an improving BB/9 (especially over the second half), increased K rate to nearly one per inning, and most IP in major league career. There’s a potential argument that he feasted on really weak teams – look at his results against the Orioles, White Sox and Tigers. But I’m going with holding the line with a 3.75 – 4.00 ERA, 1.2ish WHIP, 140-150 K’s and low double digit wins. The only reason I’d run away is if his velocity shows unusually low during ST.
Frankie Montas – 2019 numbers were spectacular but are shadowed by benefit of PEDs. Despite the risk, I’m going to hope his long suspension leads to a buying opportunity as I think he can deliver a mid 3s ERA with a 1.15-1.2 WHIP and 150 Ks.
Sean Manaea – Came back from a torn labrum simply dominating in September. Then he was shelled in the playoffs. Given that he’s healthy, I see him as sort of a WYSIWIG pitcher who’ll put up stats similar to 2017/18 with a 4ish ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 130-140 Ks.
Jesus Luzardo – Primarily lat issues (and some shoulder issues) blighted his 2019 season. He was worked into a multi-inning RP role late in the year. He has a dynamic arm and stuff, but he has never gone more than 110 IP in a season, even in the minors. He has capability to deliver dominant ratios and very good 10 K/9 IP rate, but even if healthy, I suspect he’ll be innings limited to 120 – 130 IP.
AJ Puk – Came off TJ surgery last year and pitched for about five weeks out of the bullpen. Features 97-98 MPH fastball and Thor-like 90 MPH slider. Change is a work in progress, but said to be improving. Will be given a chance to start. If he fails to get a SP slot, the A’s will likely put him and his dominant two pitches in the bullpen. Given my belief that Mike Fiers is failing, I’m banking on Puk replacing Fiers sometime around June.
BLUE JAYS:
HJ Ryu – When healthy, he is a low ERA, low WHIP, decent K level machine. Unfortunately, his machine runs a lot like a 70s vintage Corvette; great when its running but in the shop for a lot of repairs. Second issue he’s moving from a very good NL team with a favorable pitchers park to an improving, but not yet great team in the AL East. On top of it, the Blue Jays have some serious defensive questions at both corner infield positions. I’m betting on good health but both a BAA and HR/9 hit, increasing his ERA to the 3.25-3.50 range, WHIP to around 1.15, and 150 Ks.
Tanner Roark – Pretty much a WYSIWIG pitcher, but a slight negative bump for moving to the AL East. I’m looking at mid-4s ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 150 Ks.
Chase Anderson – There’s not a park hit for moving out of Miller Park, but somehow, Anderson has had three consecutive years of low BABIPs (.239 - .266) and there’s nothing in his arsenal that would support those low BABIPs or frighten hitters, even with an improved cutter. On the plus side, I don’t think he’ll get yanked around the way he was in Milwaukee. But I’m buying 4.50 – 4.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 145 K’s.
Matt Shoemaker – Well, it wasn’t his arm, but a blown ACL cost Shoemaker almost all of 2019. This makes three years running where he hasn’t reached 80 IP. 2016 stats are fair to expect if he’s healthy, but given past performance, I’m only considering going after him in the endgame in my AL Only league.
Trent Thornton – Came over from the Astros, and the Jays threw him right into the starting rotation. Numbers were hurt by trying to pitch through a sore elbow – during which time he was bludgeoned by the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. After Detroit clubbed him, the Jays finally realized something was seriously wrong. His BB/9 trend showed improvement as the year progressed; given his performance in the minors, I think that improvement will hold or better further. The improved walk rate should allow for better fantasy metrics, so I’m going with 4.25 – 4.50 ERA, mid to low 1.3s WHIP, and 155 Ks. I’d certainly go get Thornton ahead of Roark or Anderson.
INDIANS:
Mike Clevinger – The good: K rate took a huge jump to near 12/9 IP. BB/9 also improved. Minimized LHB/RHB splits. Velocity at 95+ MPH. Stuff and metrics support him being a top-tier fantasy SP.
The bad: The Indians appear hell-bent on trading their high-end assets like Lindor and Clevinger. If Clevinger stays and Lindor leaves, Clevinger has lost a critical offensive and defensive cog. If Clevinger is dealt to the NL, some AL Only owners will lose his stats.
The projection: Under present state, 2.50 – 2.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 230 K’s and 16- 18 wins.
Shane Bieber – Full year one was pretty much incredible – low 3’s ERA, sub 1.1 WHIP, almost 11 K’s/9, and a miniscule BB/9 rate. On top of that, eyes-on types say Bieber has really improved his curve to an above average pitch. Under present Cleveland state, I think he’ll come very close to repeating 2019 stats.
Adam Plutko – I’ve always thought “Plutko” sounds like a comic-book villain, and his 2019 performance was criminal to many fantasy teams. Worse yet, I see no upside in basic or advanced metrics to indicate that he’ll improve over the 5+ ERA, 1.4+ WHIP, and low K rate. The only way I see him getting any time will be due to injuries or a setback for Carlos Carrasco, and that’s still no reason for you to roster him.
Carlos Carrasco – Fortunately, appears to remain in remission. His surface stats from 2019 were brutal. But BB/9, K/9 and even velocity all looked identical to 2018. I’m hoping to make a value buy on him.
Aaron Civale – Great control, but lacking overpowering stuff. I like him better than Plutko or Plesac for the #4/5 SP slot in Cleveland. I’m a bit more optimistic than others – I like him for 140 IP, 110 K’s, 4ish ERA, 1.24 -1.28 WHIP. It’s regression from 2019, but not disastrous.
Zach Plesac – Much as I’d like a Plesac to be successful, everything in his profile points to a sizeable ERA jump (0.50 – 1.00 points) and another tenth of a point in WHIP. That said, if he can find another 1.5 – 2.0 MPH as Clevinger did, he’d show some upside. Worth monitoring in Spring Training.
MARINERS:
Marco Gonzalez – He’s a very savvy pitcher who gets the most out of his stuff. Problem is that his stuff appears to be diminishing. His FB velocity has dropped more than 2 MPH in two years; BB/9 went up while K/9 went down in 2019 versus 2018. On the plus side, he’s durable and capable of 200+ innings and decent win totals even on a bad Seattle team. But that high IP combined with potentially deteriorating ERA and WHIP could torpedo your team ratios.
Yusei Kikuchi – Wow, that was horrible – 160 IP of ratio destroying ERA and WHIP while delivering under 120 K’s. Some BB/9 improvement in second half, but I see nothing else that would point to a radical improvement. 5+ ERA and mid 1.4s WHIP with minimal strikeouts adds up to avoid at all costs.
Justus Sheffield – The long-touted prospect is almost certain to be handed the #3/4 SP slot in Seattle. He has nothing left to prove in AAA ball. Favorable park, excellent GB rate and some K upside could give a favorable outcome, but lack of control to date creates a huge WHIP risk. He’s an investment, and if I’m running a rebuilding fantasy team, he’s a guy I’d go after.
Justin Dunn – Skipped AAA ball for a cup of coffee in Seattle. Strong minor league K rate, BB/9 improvement in the minors and 4-pitch repertoire has many slotting Dunn in the #4/5 SP spot. Jerry DiPoto, Seattle’s GM, sure seemed to reinforce that in his last major press conference. On the plus side, he went almost 140 IP the last two years so should have no innings limitations this year and he certainly looks to have better stuff than Kikuchi. Again, if I’m a rebuilder, I’d go after him since all reports consider him a strong future SP.
Kendall Graveman – Seattle signed him coming off TJ recovery to provide some back end innings until some of the other future Seattle SPs are ready (most likely Logan Gilbert). His arm appears sound, so he should return to his low to mid 4’s ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 6 K’s/9 IP form.
ORIOLES (AND, YES, WE MUST COVER THEM):
John Means – Previously mediocre lefty roared out to a dominant 1st half with a mid-2s ERA and sub 1.1 WHIP for an awful Baltimore team. Just about every metric and smart fantasy pitching person indicated it wasn’t sustainable, and sure enough, reality slapped Means hard in the second half. He’s a FB pitcher in a park and division that typically punishes all but the best FB pitchers, but his control gives him some marginal upside. Figure mid-4s ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6-7 K’s/9 in Baltimore. There’s upside if he’s traded to a place that forgives his FB tendencies.
Alex Cobb – Had back issues, and decided to get everything fixed while out – back, hip, knee. Arm is sound. Was pretty heavily battered first year in Baltimore in 2018 when last reasonably healthy, and that’s with a slight velocity increase from when he came in the league in 2013. There’s nothing in the 2018 profile that points to an upturn, so ignore those who are pointing to his numbers with the Rays and fully expect an upper 4’s ERA, mid to upper 1.3s WHIP, 6 K/9, and minimal wins.
Asher Wojciechowski – Another FB pitcher in Baltimore with two significant negatives compared to Means – first, he’s right-handed, and second, he has nowhere near the control Means does. Unless Baltimore signs a couple of innings eaters, Woj is likely to supply your team with 150+ IP of ratio destroying innings. My command of Polish is limited, but I suspect Wojciechowski means “buy a middle reliever instead”.
Kohl Stewart – Once a well-regarded prospect, the Twins dumped him after multiple mediocre minor league seasons. Baltimore signed him, and he has a decent chance of slotting in the #4/5 SP slot. On the plus side, he’s a GB pitcher, and Baltimore recently signed Iglesias at SS. On the minus side, his control isn’t great (a shade below 3.0/9), he doesn’t strike out many (about 6.0/9), and he’s pitching for Baltimore. Might be some upside if he can improve his control, but I see a baseline of and ERA around 5, WHIP around 1.4, and 110 K’s.
RANGERS:
Corey Kluber – Klubot programming was hacked, leading to his first injury riddled season in as long as I can remember. He’s now in Texas, arguably the most challenging pitching park in the AL. Key questions are whether the year off will impact his velocity and/or control. And, given Kluber’s history in April, those questions may not start getting adequately answered until the weather warms. I’m paying for him normalizing in the mid-3’s ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9-10 K’s/9 and 180-190 IP.
Lance Lynn – Lost some weight to get down in the 280 pound range, changed his pitch pattern and selection, and found some velocity. But the biggest shock improvement for me was Lynn’s control, which improved around a full walk/9 IP over his career norms. His change in GB/FB ratio appears driven by pitching more frequently high in the zone, and he has the velocity to pull it off. Metrics support him doing it again; your value should be driven by whether you believe he can keep that big body healthy for 200 IP again. He’s a guy I’ll go an extra buck or two on if I need K’s.
Mike Minor – ERA dropped, K rate went up, and BABIP normalized. On the minus side, jump in BB/9 to 2.9 drove a WHIP increase to above 1.2. And it’s the first time he’s crossed 200 IP since his peak years with the Braves in 2013. He’s a guy who I think would be hurt more than many by a decrease in velocity, as it could make it more difficult to set up his often-used premier change. I think he’s good for an upper 3’s ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 8.5 Ks/9 IP and I’m willing to pay for about 170 IP.
Jordan Lyles – Vastly better in Milwaukee after his 2019 Pittsburgh fiasco, worked himself into a pretty good payday in Texas. The Brewers had him work his fastball extensively up in the zone and tweaked his curve a bit; this seemed to help his control. But much of his improvement was BABIP driven, as his time in Milwaukee had him at about a .220 BABIP. Figure him for a 4.25 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 150ish Ks, with some upside potential.
Kyle Gibson – I have friends with ulcerative colitis. It’s nasty. That Gibson did anything last year is impressive; he must simply love to compete. Rangers signed him based on his condition continuing under control; if so, he’s increased velocity to around 93 MPH, K/9 has improved to about one per inning, and control has even marginally improved. He’s a risk/reward play; I think he’s good for an upper 3’s ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 175 K’s if healthy. But if his health goes south, he’ll still try and compete – and likely hurt you across the board.
RAYS:
Blake Snell – I think pretty much all of us expected some reversion to mean after his brilliant 2018 season, just not the relative disaster that was 2019. But a BABIP increase of over 100 points/strand rate decrease of over 16 points combined with injuries spiked his ERA, cut his K’s and increased WHIP by nearly 30%. Amidst all that, his K rate jumped to over 12.3 K/9, walk rate held about the same, and he still averaged nearly 96 MPH. Think buying opportunity to the tune of 3.25 – 3.50 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 200+ K’s with upside and downside based on health. I’d throw a couple extra bucks to get him in an auction.
Charlie Morton – Yeah, sure, every pitcher who’s seemingly 70 years old puts up elite numbers and improves his K/9 while significantly improving his BB/9. And the elite numbers came with reasonably normal BABIP and strand rates; ERA matches up well with FIP/xFIP. Fastball dropped a bit, but is still well over 94 MPH. Want pure comedy gold? Watch hitters try and square up a Charlie Morton curveball. Seriously, he’s 36 and has had past health problems, but everything else points to a repeat. I’m taking the chance and paying full value for him if I have to.
Tyler Glasnow – Harnessed impressive stuff early with much improved control and put up staggeringly good results. Then was diagnosed with the dreaded “Forearm strain” and missed about four months. He’s presumably healthy, with massive upside. He’s a guy I’ll go for aggressively in shallower leagues where replacement value is higher. But the risk of a “forearm strain” will have me out pretty early in an AL-only league.
Ryan Yarbrough – Often used as a “bulk pitcher” behind an opener. Showed ultra-premium control in majors significantly better than he did in minors. But was consistent with that control for over 140 IP. Plus, he’s historically been healthy, so will likely be turned loose for 170+ IP of great WHIP, good ERA, and a 8-9 K/9 strikeout rate. If TB uses him as they did last year, it’s a double-plus bonus. He gets put in a position where he needs to throw fewer innings to get wins, and if you’re in a starts-limited league (like most ESPN leagues), he counts less against your start total.
Yonny Chirinos – Solid in 1st half. Crashed and burned in 2nd half, then injured…or, that might have been why he crashed and burned in addition to the ridiculously unlucky strand rate. Good velocity, excellent control, decent K rate. ERA around 4, 1.2 WHIP, 130-140 K’s is my buying line.
RED SOX:
Chris Sale – The metrics all say “buy” – FIP, xFIP, xERA all point to an ERA close to 3.00. K/9 is still well over 13. BB/9 did regress some, but is still pretty good at 2.3/9. GB/FB rate nearly identical to previous dominant seasons. Buuuuuut, he’s a SP with a questionable elbow who throws more than 38% high-effort sliders. And a second consecutive year where he didn’t hit 160 IP. And a year where he gave up 5 ER or more in 28% of his starts. And a bullpen that all too often uses gasoline to put out fires. If I can get him for a bargain, maybe. But I doubt he’ll go for much below full value in my AL only league.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Stayed healthy, and Boston turned him loose. Resulted in an uptick of 73 IP. Tom Verducci fans (which I am definitely NOT) should avoid ERod next year. All others should look at the moderate upticks in K/9 and WHIP which seem to line up pretty well with his other metrics, balance the risk of the Boston bullpen, and buy more of the same.
David Price – Multiple injuries finished with wrist surgery, recovery timing in question. In addition, AL only league players who lose stats if traded to NL are at significant risk since Boston would give him away and ship truckloads of cash (or maybe Mookie Betts) for anyone who’d take on his contract and send back a quality prospect if Mookie is involved. If I’m in a mixed league, I think of Price the way we used to think of Rich Hill – about 100-110 IP, but really good IP at mid to low 3’s ERA, sub 1.1 WHIP, and 9-10 K’s/9 and anything above 110 IP is gravy.
Nathan Eovaldi – I liked him. Paul Sporer, who is really, really smart, liked him and had him in the upper 30’s in his SP rankings. Boston apparently really liked him. Well, that went up in flames. Control blew up, followed shortly by Eovaldi’s elbow blowing up, followed by bullpen work. He still has elite velocity, so I’d not argue with anyone who wants to take an endgame chance on him. It just won’t be me.
Martin Perez – Some alien took over Martin Perez for about the first eight weeks of the season. Sadly, for his fantasy owners, the alien was recalled to Proxima Centauri at the end of May, and the real Martin Perez took over. The real Martin Perez walks too many, strikes out too few, and gives up hits…lots of hits. He’s been flat-out terrible for five years running; he’s essentially been the Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog for fantasy owners for a long time. My bold prediction is he’ll be an even larger flaming disaster in Fenway and the AL East in 2020.
ROYALS:
Brad Keller – Shut down for a month after compiling a workload of 165 IP over five months. He’s a pitch to contact type who seems to have significant improvement as his BB/9 rate moves close to or below 3.0. He’s pretty young (24) and should be allowed a full workload this year. That points to 180-190 IP, 4.5ish ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 130-140 K’s. There’s some upside in ERA and WHIP if he continues to polish and improve his control.
Danny Duffy – Bank on 140-150 IP, 2-3 DL visits, low 4’s ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8 K/9 IP, and 7 to 9 wins on a bad Royals team.
Jake Junis – He has a slider-heavy repertoire, but hangs far too many of those sliders, which are then launched into satellite level orbit. He has a decent K/9, but awful HR/9 and declining control. The 2017/18 version was serviceable with a 4.3ish ERA, high 1.2s WHIP, and around 160 Ks. The 2019 version is not useable in any format unless your format includes “home run distance allowed”.
Mike Montgomery – A few years ago, I really thought he’d turn into a serviceable starting pitcher. Instead, he gives up too many walks (3.4/9), strikes out too few (about 6.8/9), and doesn’t show the velocity or potential dominant pitch to change that pattern. If he starts and he’s on your team, he’ll likely punish you to the tune of and ERA around 5, 1.45 WHIP, and minimal K’s.
Glenn Sparkman – Terrible K rate for someone who can hit over 94 on his fastball. Batters hit .293 against him while homering twice per nine innings. About 136 IP of an unholy 6ish ERA and 1.5+ WHIP. If he’s nominated at your auction, start shotgunning a beer – both to celebrate him being on an opposing roster AND to avoid accidentally bidding.
TIGERS:
Matthew Boyd – Dominant 1st half, with impressive year-long gain to 11.6K/9 IP. Control diminished in 2nd half, and HR/9 jumped to ERA-crushing levels. FIP and xERA point to improvement. Been a frequent name in trade talks, so AL owners who lose stats if he’s traded to the NL must beware. He comes with ERA risk, but he’s been durable, and SPs who can give you a mid-1.2 WHIP and 220-240 K’s don’t grow on trees. In a mixed league, I’m all over him and hope he’ll escape Detroit.
Daniel Norris – Pitched over 140 IP for the first time since 2016. Control and GB rate improved and both look pretty sustainable, as does much improved WHIP. K/9 even slightly improved, approaching 8 K’s/9. Reduced slider use, increased change use. Detroit controlled his innings by starting him and pitching him exactly three innings in each of his last nine outings – meaning he got exactly zero wins during that span. Assuming he slots in as Detroit’s conventional #2 SP and the gloves come off, I’m looking at continued growth to 150-160 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 140-150 K’s.
Spencer Turnbull – I have to admire anyone who guts out a 3-17 record in Detroit. His spectacularly ugly 2nd half was driven at least in part by a really high BABIP and really low strand rate. But he must improve control to progress; there’s plenty of power and certainly, can deliver one K/inning or more. His downside risk will be ratio-destroying to your fantasy team. But if you’re rebuilding, I’d recommend rolling the dice on him in the endgame. Normalized BABIP/strand rates and modest control improvement could give you a serviceable 4ish ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 170+ k’s.
Jordan Zimmerman – Had a brilliant first outing. Then arm trouble quickly set in, and took a profile with no room for error and cratered his year, and any fantasy owners who held him for more than a couple of starts. Suffice to say, 2015 is not coming back.
Michael Fulmer – Will theoretically return at the AS Break after TJ surgery. If he comes back whole, has capability to deliver 3.75ish ERA, 1.15ish WHIP, and 7 K’s/9 IP. He’s worth an endgame shot, especially if your league has DL slots. There’s not a lot of SPs who have his proven stats AND a 95+ MPH fastball.
TWINS:
Jose Berrios – Three years ago, I thought Berrios would be a top 2 or 3 AL only SP by 2020. He’s not that, but he’s a well-proven, very reliable SP who’ll give you 190-200 SP, 3.50 – 3.75 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and 190-200 K’s. In an AL-only league, I’d pay a premium for his reliability.
Jake Odorizzi – Found about 2 MPH velocity while improving control over 2017/18. Resulted in great first half, second half had a BABIP hit drive his ERA up. If velocity holds, his uptick to 10 K’s/9 looks maintainable. If you’re into someone on a free agent drive, Odorizzi is your guy. I’m buying at 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 160 IP and 170 K’s.
Homer Bailey – Up and down in KC, with some really good flashes that hadn’t been seen from him in years. Traded to Oakland, turned into SuperHomer and became near-dominant. The eyeball test looks like he’s developed a really, really good splitter; the metrics call it good. Given all his arm troubles and age, I just can’t believe. I could be convinced to take an endgame chance on him, but am pretty sure he’ll go for well over that in my AL Only league.
Michael Pineda – You know it’s coming: you can’t spell Pineda without PED. Was looking dominant upon his return until busted. Value will likely be driven by stashability/rebuilding status. If he stays healthy, he has high upside and a not-awful downside, with something like 2017 stats – 4.3ish ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and a bit under a K per inning. But health sans PEDs is really the key issue.
Randy Dobnak – Excellent control, great GB rate. K rate in majors in limited data set was much higher than minors, so don’t get too excited. Barring a really bad Spring Training, appears to be locked in for #4 SP role while Pineda and Hill are out. Given that 3/4/5 in Minnesota are now Bailey, Pineda, and Hill, I also believe there’ll be plenty of room for starts later in the season if he performs acceptably early. Looks like a solid ratios pitcher, with a 6K/9 IP rate for now; good upside to pitch himself into a starting slot in the future as well.
Rich Hill – Had pseudo-TJ surgery, and given history and age, plan on him not returning until the AS Break. For this season, think 50-60 IP, mid-3s ERA with upside, 1.10 WHIP, and 65-80 K’s. Downside is you get nothing out of him.
Devin Smeltzer – Finesse lefty with sub-90s fastball. I love how he competes, but arsenal runs on razor’s edge of MLB survival. I think he needs a sub-2.0 BB/9 rate just to make it as a SP. May get starts early, but don’t bank on him lasting in the rotation beyond June.
Brusdar Graterol – Should start simply because he has the greatest name in baseball. Will battle for a SP spot during Spring Training; has a big-time power fastball, quality slider, and, well, not a lot else yet. Reached AAA ball last year, but the Twins used him out of the bullpen to prep him for that role in the playoffs. Barring an outrageously good Spring Training, I suspect the 21-year old will be sent to AAA ball if the Twins want him to start in the future, or the bullpen conversion will begin in earnest with the tag of “future closer”.
WHITE SOX:
Lucas Giolito – Realized what he was doing wasn’t working, and changed mechanics and pitch mix going into 2019. Um, well, yeah, that worked pretty good. Gained 2 MPH on his fastball. Still may be some margin for a buying opportunity – ERA jumped to 4.24 in the second half and he only had 3 wins. However, his BB/9 and K/9 continued to improve through the second half. And the White Sox have added Yasmani Grandal behind the plate – not that McCann was bad, but Grandal is even better regarded defensively. And Giolito’s still only 25. I’d overspend by a notable margin to get him – his base is very, very good and his upside is almost 2018 Justin Verlander.
Dallas Keuchel – Doesn’t miss bats, premium control a distant memory, and velocity sits well under 90. GB rate is still elite. The White Sox will likely feature two excellent defensive infielders – Madrigal at 2B and Moncada at 3B, but 1B isn’t very good, and Anderson at SS has been very inconsistent - but ranging from poor to average. I’m paying for 180 IP of 4 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 150 K’s, with upside if BABIP luck is on his side.
Gio Gonzalez – Another finesse lefty, but with a much lower GB rate than Keuchel. Milwaukee got him out of games early last year – typically shortly after the second time through the lineup, which resulted in better ratios and decreased wins. If the White Sox use him more conventionally, 2018 stats with ERA risk is most likely outcome.
Reynaldo Lopez – Came into 2019 highly regarded, and then proceeded to kill his believers in the first half with a 6+ ERA and 1.6 WHIP. Second half featured improved control rate (2.7 BB/9), velocity (96+ MPH), and K rate (8.5 K/9). That translated to improvement – but only to a 4.63 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, which still aren’t very good. The arm talent says there’s upside, but the metrics say he’s a 4.50 – 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 170-180 K pitcher.
Dylan Cease – Great arm talent, huge fastball, seemingly only a vague idea where the ball is going. 4+ BB/9 combined with a high HR/9 and a hard contact rate over 30% indicates a lot needs to be fixed. With the White Sox going for it this year, Cease may well be moved into a bullpen role unless results start improving early.
Michael Kopech – Will be about 18 months off TJ surgery at start of season. And talk about arm talent! Will battle Lopez and Cease for SP spot in Spring Training. He’s another guy with a huge arm, control issues and interesting mechanics. On the plus side, his change was showing real progress before the injury. If he doesn’t win a SP spot, he will fit very well into the back end of the White Sox bullpen, where his stuff could result in really, really good numbers.
YANKEES:
Gerrit Cole – He’s simply the best (and richest) pitcher in MLB right now, and is still under 30. Only possible risk I can see is adjustment to New York media and rabid fanbase. He’s likely learned all he can from Houston. He combines excellent control with crushingly elite stuff. He’s been excellent against LHBs for two years running, a trait that will serve him well in New York. Given the paucity of high-end SPs, I’d seriously consider taking Cole with a top-3 pick in a redraft league.
Masahiro Tanaka – World-class splitter failed him in 2019, resulting in 2nd half collapse (5.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP). Whether it’s the baseball, his elbow, phase of the moon, or some combination thereof, his K rate dropped into the mid 7s/9, ERA increased to mid-4s, and WHIP to mid 1.2s. I’m betting on the decline holding and those numbers staying about the same.
James Paxton – When healthy, still has near-elite stuff, though control took a hit in 2019 with walk rate increasing about one per inning to 3.3 BB/9. Walk rate and results were notably better in 2nd half. Bank on 2 DL stints, 150-160 IP, 170-180 K’s, upper 3s ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Given the strength of the NYY bullpen and offense, better than average chance for good win totals as well.
Luis Severino – Those who read my work from 2-3 years ago know I was big-time amped on him in 2017 and 2018. Still only 26, I suspect the Yankees will have him on a strict pitch count early. That, in addition to knocking off rust, could well lead to very mixed first half results. If he avoids injury setbacks, second half should return to his very good 3.00 – 3.25 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 10.5 K’s/9 IP numbers. If you’re in a keeper league, I’d be looking to value shop him onto your roster.
JA Happ – Well, that was an ugly introduction to New York. Worse yet, it doesn’t appear to be driven by bad BABIP luck. For years, got most out of what he had, but dropping K/9 and increasing HR/9 sure seem to indicate what he has isn’t very good anymore. If he starts, he’ll likely get more than deserved wins due to the Yankee offense and bullpen, but I don’t see anything that indicates he’ll be better than a 4.50 – 5.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 140 K pitcher over a full season.
Jordan Montgomery – Probable door #1 if Yankees decide to move on from Happ or Tanaka/Paxton/Severino suffer early injuries. Pitched a handful of innings after TJ and subsequent shoulder injury. Could be very solid back of rotation arm, especially knowing they only have to get 5-6 innings out of him. My impression is he’ll start as a LR in the bullpen, but move fairly early into the rotation due to injury and/or suckitude. There’s likely value here.
Domingo German – Out most of the first half, the shiny 18 wins last year is still going to attract a lot of attention. There’s some good stuff – improved control last year, dropping his BB/9 below 2.5/9, a 9+K/9 rate, and improving secondary offerings. But declining velocity, high HR/9 rate, and a 4+ ERA combined with a very favorable sub-.260 BABIP are alarming. Given the health risk of the Yankees starters and the combustion risk with Happ, he could well be the #3 as soon as he comes back. I have to admit, I thought I’d like him given the BB:K ratio, but there’s too many red flags for me, even with the Yankee offense and bullpen quality. He’ll go for more than I’m willing to pay unless he makes it to the $2-4 level in my AL-only.
SOME RANDOM FREE AGENTS:
Andrew Cashner – For a while, it appeared the 2017 deal Cashner cut with Satan was still in play. Then he was traded, then it got ugly, and then he was sent to the bullpen – where he even got a save, which says more about the condition of the Red Sox bullpen than anything. On the plus side, he’s upgraded his change to at least an average pitch, he’s durable, and he’ll pitch out of the bullpen if needed. He’s not signed yet, but I expect someone will bring him in to chew up 120-150 innings.
Taijuan Walker – Arguably the most talented of the free agents out there, he was non-tendered but is many months off TJ surgery. Lived and died with a 94+ MPH fastball and three average to below average secondary pitches. Unless there’s health issues I’m not aware of, he could help any number of teams.
Aaron Sanchez – That voice whispering about his really good 2016 numbers? It’s a Will-OWisp designed to lead you to a place where he’ll suck the life force out of your fantasy team. Was non-tendered by the Astros. Listen, my view is if the Astros don’t think they can fix him, he’s probably unfixable.
Alex Wood – Back injury wrecked 2019 season. I’m avoiding since back injuries scare me off, but I could not argue with anyone who takes an endgame flier on him, especially if he lands in a pitchers park.
Matt Harvey – No, just kidding.
Jhoulys Chacin – I’d say “just kidding” here, too, but I’ve seen two recent articles advocated him as a value SP available. As a Brewer fan, I’ve watched Chacin a lot, and the metrics don’t lie. His formerly excellent slider is now very average, his fastball is straight and lacking velocity, and his other secondary pitches just aren’t good. He is pretty durable, so a rebuilder might sign him to soak up beatings and innings, but you should most definitely not.
Ivan Nova – Added a slider in 2019 to try and stem his decline, and it did not go well. Increasing ERA, declining K/9 to under 6.0, increasing BB/9 and increasing BAA all tell you this will most likely get worse and not better. Opponents his .300 off him last year, and luck had little to do with it.
Trevor Cahill/Jeremy Hellickson – The formula for both is pretty simple. A) Get signed. B) Stay healthy. C) Make sure their change works. If all those things happen, either can provide serviceable numbers in a deep league. If any fail, it’s ugly.
Drew Smyly – While I have little faith he can stay healthy, he did put together a decent run over a dozen starts with the Phillies last year, including a very good September with a 3.65 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 over five starts, with only one clunker.
- Wonderboy
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