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**chancellor** · 01-08-2020, 09:45 PM

OneJ and madducks - thanks. Updates made. Appreciate the input.

OneJ - I'd still lean to Cleveland, given that I think they'll be much better at the 2/3 SP slots. Cleveland looking to tear this team down rather than invest wisely and continue making a run is almost criminal.

**Sour Masher** · 01-08-2020, 10:46 PM

You have Jose Urquidy on my radar. James was the guy I assumed would get the 4 or 5, and I figure Whitley will be up sooner than later. Not to mention Peacock as an option. Urquidy has lots of competition, but may be a good value because of it.

**cavebird** · 01-08-2020, 11:29 PM

Random comments on others' comments:

1. Chi Sox are getting better, but I hesitate to put them above the Twins. Twins hitting is more proven and less strikeout prone. Both have some regression built in (Anderson & Kepler for example), but less proven for the ChiSox. And the Twins pitching is very iffy, but so is the ChiSox. Other than Keuchel, the ChiSox have no proven starters whatsoever. They got a lot of kids with stuff. That can go either way. I would put the Twins above them until the Sox show otherwise. But all three are close. Saying you like "Cease, Kopech, and Lopez a lot more than Civale, Plutko, and Pleasac" shows a penchant for risk and upside. It could happen, it might not. While the Cleveland offense is likely below the other two, the top two of Clevenger and Beiber are clearly the best top two of the three teams.

2. Dylan Bundy is a fascinating case. I have no idea what to think. How many other pitchers have had just about the best pitch in the league (his slider) and the worst pitch in the league (his fastball) in the same year? Can he find enough other stuff to throw to more or less get rid of the fastball? MLB hitters can hit that out in Anaheim, too. Forget the mental part, the fastball is just garbage. Can he throw strikes with other stuff and shelve it entirely?

**Ken** · 01-08-2020, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post

You have Jose Urquidy on my radar. James was the guy I assumed would get the 4 or 5, and I figure Whitley will be up sooner than later. Not to mention Peacock as an option. Urquidy has lots of competition, but may be a good value because of it.

I’m in on Urquidy too

**onejayhawk** · 01-09-2020, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by chancellor View Post

OneJ and madducks - thanks. Updates made. Appreciate the input.

OneJ - I'd still lean to Cleveland, given that I think they'll be much better at the 2/3 SP slots. Cleveland looking to tear this team down rather than invest wisely and continue making a run is almost criminal.

I agree Cleveland is better if Carrasco is good to go, which seems to be the case. It does not look good if he isn't.

The Rangers seem to have five set rotation members, but Kolby Allard is worth mentioning. Like Lance Lynn, he found some velocity and is only 24. He was inconsistent as you SP often are, but also dominant at times. He is one 30+ pitcher from regular ML work.

Paul Sporer put out his top 125 a few hours ago. He puts Dallas Keuchel down at #113, 5th on the staff, which turns my comment on it's head. He also agrees with you on Civale, #58.

Top 125 SP for 2020

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-125-sp-for-2020/

New Year, new rankings. Where does your favorite SP slot in Paul’s latest rankings?

J

**cavebird** · 01-09-2020, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post

I agree Cleveland is better if Carrasco is good to go, which seems to be the case. It does not look good if he isn't.

The Rangers seem to have five set rotation members, but Kolby Allard is worth mentioning. Like Lance Lynn, he found some velocity and is only 24. He was inconsistent as you SP often are, but also dominant at times. He is one 30+ pitcher from regular ML work.

Paul Sporer put out his top 125 a few hours ago. He puts Dallas Keuchel down at #113, 5th on the staff, which turns my comment on it's head. He also agrees with you on Civale, #58.

Top 125 SP for 2020

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-125-sp-for-2020/

New Year, new rankings. Where does your favorite SP slot in Paul’s latest rankings?

J

Dude, he's Teenwolf here. No more, no less.

**chancellor** · 01-10-2020, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by cavebird View Post

Dude, he's Teenwolf here. No more, no less.

Wait, Teenwolf is Dallas Keuchel? And he's not giving beard advice in the Sports Bar? That's not right!

**onejayhawk** · 01-10-2020, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by cavebird View Post

Dude, he's Teenwolf here. No more, no less.

No. He's teemwolf with a nice nameplate on his desk.

Damn. Now you remind me of when Paul was still at UT.

J

**onejayhawk** · 01-13-2020, 10:20 AM

More Sporer input. He did an article on SP he liked more than ADP. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/assess...with-adp-pt-1/

Some bits.

I understand that Samardzija, Lyles, and Miley are pretty boring picks which is part of why they fall down the ADP ladder, but they were all top 60 SPs last year.

I know, I won�t stop talking about him. Honestly, I�ll just direct you here, here, and here for my thoughts on [Aaron] Civale. [links to three articles not included.]

[Dylan] Cease is another arm I�ve highlighted as a favorite already his offseason...Many young arms struggle getting through a lineup multiple times, but Cease had the opposite issue. He got better as the game went on: .976 OPS the 1st time through, .831 2nd time, and .631 3rd time.

[Frankie Montas, #21] You may be struck by such a high ranking for someone without even 100 IP in the majors let alone a full season, but I love Montas� trajectory and I�m excited about his 2020. His evolution from thrower to pitcher along with the addition of a wicked splitter now leaves him with a three-pitch mix highlighted by top shelf velo (96.6 mph) and a killer slider that netted a 9.6 pitch value in just 96 innings of work.

Other names--Jake Odorizzi, Max Fried, Joe Musgrove

Also of interest is Justin Mason's top 126 list, which includes ADP. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/justin...6-sp-for-2020/
It's an interesting list. The last third has a number of SP with ADP outside the top 400. A few rotation names he likes--Mike Soroka, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Beede, Keving Gausman.

J

**chancellor** · 02-01-2020, 01:49 PM

Bumpy.

**Sharky** · 02-05-2020, 06:48 PM

Well, Stripling might be undervalued but not with LAD it seems. Reports have him going to LAA though not yet set in stone.

**Sour Masher** · 02-08-2020, 09:08 PM

Reading up on Urquidy, he was never considered a good prospect and fangraphs has an article hyping cincern about how his different arms slots for his pirches will tip hitters now they have book on him. Chance and others, clearly his performance last year was great, but is the arm slot thing an issue?

**chancellor** · 02-10-2020, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post

Reading up on Urquidy, he was never considered a good prospect and fangraphs has an article hyping cincern about how his different arms slots for his pirches will tip hitters now they have book on him. Chance and others, clearly his performance last year was great, but is the arm slot thing an issue?

I don't think it will be. The Astros recognized the problem, and he was already working on throwing multiple pitches from the arm slots he uses last year. It's worth checking in Spring Training.

**chancellor** · 09-29-2020, 12:57 PM

Followups from the 2020 reviews:

ANGELS:
Julio Teheran – Those projecting catastrophic regression were right. I thought he’d be bad, but not this awful.
Dylan Bundy – Escaping Baltimore was even better than I thought. He significantly changed his repertoire this year – throwing only about 42% fastballs and really using his plus slider and change to set up his fastball. In addition, his BB/9 dropped by almost 1/9 IP from 2019. I’ll be mulling over how much of the improvements will be sustainable in the offseason.

ASTROS:
Justin Verlander – Ugh, see you in 2022 unless you think spending all your time with Kate Upton is more fun. While I’ve said they’d have to rip the uniform off me and change the locks to get me to retire, having Kate Upton rip my uniform off MIGHT just make me change my mind…
Zack Greinke – ERA was a tick inflated, all other numbers were Greinke-like goodness. I’m not sure how alarmed I am at the FB velocity drop.
Lance McCullers – Numbers came in line with projections, but most importantly, his arm didn’t fall off.
Jose Urquidy – Got a late start, had to knock off rust in the first start, but those last four starts show why I’m really excited about this guy.
Framber Valdez – Post-hype sleeper really stepped up. Even including a game where he was left in for a beating to save the Astros bullpen, put up very good numbers. BB/9 had quantum improvement. Gaining confidence in his change, and if the control improvement holds AND the change progresses, his upside is impressive.

A’S:
Mike Fiers – Came in very close to my projections. And he still won two more games than deGrom.
Chris Bassitt – ERA way better than FIP/xERA.
Frankie Montas – Wow, this was shatteringly bad.

BLUE JAYS:
HJ Ryu – Came in better than I thought. I was wrong on the BAA hit, but correct on the BB/9 hit.
Roark/Anderson – Didn’t think they’d be great, but that was horrific.

INDIANS:
Shane Bieber – I thought he’d be good, but this was otherworldly. And just to punish batters more, he has added a plus cutter.
Carlos Carrasco – Loved seeing him successful this year. Will need to noodle on potential for repeat, as BB/9 jump was alarming, even in a short season.
Zach Plesac – Will be an interesting offseason review.

MARINERS:
Marco Gonzales – I’ll fully admit I swung and missed badly on this one. The why will be fun to research.
Yusei Kikuchi – Sucked pretty much according to projections, but FIP indicated major improvement.
Justus Sheffield – I recommended him as an investment for a rebuilder (and I did deal for him in my AL Only), and after two rocky starts to begin the year, really grew into the role.
Justin Dunn – Still struggling with control, but I suspect my advice for him in 2021 will be like what I did for Sheffield this year.

ORIOLES:
John Means – Control improvements, but punished by the HR ball.
Alex Cobb – Told ya so.

RANGERS:
Lance Lynn – Was awesome until last-outing beatdown. BABIP merits further research.
Mike Minor (while he was still there) – Yeah, I saw reversion, but not this catastrophe.
Jordan Lyles – Yeah, another swing and miss on my part.
Kyle Gibson – If there was a more up and down pitcher this short season, I don’t know who it was.

RAYS:
Blake Snell – I think, other than the favorable strand rate, we’re seeing what he really is – low to mid 3’s ERA, 1.2 or a shade lower WHIP, 11+Ks/9 IP.
Charlie Morton – Shoulder didn’t seem right all season.
Tyler Glasnow – Glasnow got 172 outs this year. 91 of them were by strikeout. If you expected 2019 awesomeness, you were disappointed. I was just glad his arm held together.

RED SOX:
Martin Perez – hey, I thought he’d disasterously suck. Instead, he was merely only moderately bad. But with a walk rate of over 4/9 IP and a K rate under 7/9 IP now, I can just about guarantee I’m going for the “suck” prediction again next year.
Nathan Eovaldi – Health risk scared me off of him, but harnessed the stuff further to provide about the only quality pitcher the Red Sox trotted out weekly. Will be an interesting review this year, but first blush indicates there’s upside IF he can stay healthy.

ROYALS:
Brad Keller – I’ve concluded this guy gets more out of his talent than anyone in the league.
Brady Singer/Kris Bubic – The Royals are clearly unafraid to bring up young arms. I did not think either would be up until 2021. Bubic struggled with control, but was still a vast upgrade over the Royals 3/4/5 SPs from 2019.

TIGERS:
Matthew Boyd – Everything cratered with horrifying results. I thought he’d at least give a serviceable WHIP and good K rate, but neither of those happened.
Spencer Turnbull – Came in very close to projections, but still needs serious work on control. But, still, a significant step forward.
Michael Fulmer – He was clearly not back from TJ surgery, with a diminished FB and highly hittable stuff. His insanely high BABIP was pretty much earned, and not bad luck.

TWINS:
Rich Hill – Cast webs of illusion to create a very good ERA and a solid WHIP. Everything else at a first look appears really bad and screams “The End Is NEAR!” Though, in fairness, I think they’ve been saying that about Rich Hill for ten years or so now.
Jose Berrios – Took a while to knock the rust off, but found his stride mid-August and was pretty much the steady Berrios we typically see.
Jake Odorizzi – Greatly underperformed expectations, but never seemed right after the intercostal injury.
Kenta Maeda – I wondered how he’d respond to a team that just let him start rather than yank him back and forth, but wow. His ability to locate a slider borders on inhuman.

WHITE SOX:
Lucas Giolito – If you paid for 2019 stats, you got fair value in 2020. And that’s really good. I just think he’s |-| this close to being even more elite.
Dallas Keuchel – “With upside if BABIP luck is on his side”. He got that, with a .255 BABIP. Credit where it’s due – he’s also fashioned that cut fastball into a nasty looking pitch.
Reynaldo Lopez – I didn’t think he’d be good, but this was a special level of awfulness.
Dylan Cease – If you can explain how he mustered a 4 ERA with those metrics, please DM me.

YANKEES:
Gerrit Cole – Did his season feel a little disappointing, or am I the only one?
Masahiro Tanaka – Much better than I projected. Swing and a miss here.
JA Happ – Rode the BABIP luck train to some very good numbers.
Jordan Montgomery – Best FIP of career didn’t translate to good results.
James Paxton – The spirit was willing, but the arm was not ready.

**Ken** · 09-29-2020, 04:16 PM