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2019 accountability

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  • #1

    2019 accountability

    Sitting down to work on 2020 bold prediction series for Rotowire, and I'm a believer in public accountability, so I'm throwing up my final report card from last year.



    Second straight year at 40%. I typically have this entire series published before the LABR mixed draft. BTW, I'm going to be in First Pitch FL this year to attend as well as participate in one of the live LABR auctions. Anyone else going?
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Wish you were closer to 10% or 90%, so we could be comfortable in being non-believers or converted.

    This is like the 40% chance of rain weather forecast on picnic day. :-)

    Comment

    • #3
      For bold prediction's I see these as very successful.

      Comment

      • #4
        yeah, it's hard to hit between "duh" not-risks-at-all and 1-in-a-millions.

        agreed these are aggressive but not too easy and not crazy.

        and it's entertaining in the dog days of the offseason.
        finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
        own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
        won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

        SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
        RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
        C Stallings 2, Casali 1
        1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
        OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

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        • #5
          Agreed. Given that these were “bold” predictions it’s a solid hit rate.

          Thanks Jason!

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
            yeah, it's hard to hit between "duh" not-risks-at-all and 1-in-a-millions.

            agreed these are aggressive but not too easy and not crazy.

            and it's entertaining in the dog days of the offseason.
            Yep. Thanks for posting Jason.

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
              yeah, it's hard to hit between "duh" not-risks-at-all and 1-in-a-millions.

              agreed these are aggressive but not too easy and not crazy.

              and it's entertaining in the dog days of the offseason.
              0 for 2 on the Rays is the biggest surprise!

              Comment

              • #8
                You have Mondesi as not a top 100 player? In what format? And Puig as a top 20 OF?
                In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

                Comment

                • #9
                  reading is fundamental!
                  finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                  own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                  won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                  SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                  RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                  C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                  1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                  OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                    reading is fundamental!
                    Not sure what this is referring to. Using the FG auction calculator with 2019 stats and the LABR format, Mondesi is player #92 and Puig is OF #23.
                    In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      oh, then we await a ruling

                      finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                      own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                      won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                      SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                      RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                      C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                      1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                      OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ken View Post
                        0 for 2 on the Rays is the biggest surprise!
                        I think that is an annual occurence for me

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by mjl View Post
                          You have Mondesi as not a top 100 player? In what format? And Puig as a top 20 OF?
                          used rotowire's earned auction value calculator

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Moonlight J View Post
                            used rotowire's earned auction value calculator
                            interesting. I would have thought the process of figuring out player value in a completed season would be solved for now and that there wouldn't be much variance.
                            In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by mjl View Post
                              interesting. I would have thought the process of figuring out player value in a completed season would be solved for now and that there wouldn't be much variance.
                              I think the concept is solved but the parameters are variable year to year and highly depend on league settings and distribution of stats across each team. So basically league by league dependent. The numbers we look at are approximations but in reality each player has a different value in every single league, based on the statistical distribution of each category. And that will change league by league and year by year.

                              So it's all based on the data set of leagues that you are using. And that is based on the data you have access to, which is something really only the big hosting sites have.

                              Right?

                              Comment

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