2k20: Kyle Tucker

[Art Vandelay]

Assuming the Astro's still have springer, brantley and reddick come March, what is your opinion on Kyle Tucker? I have him for $5B, making 2020 spring Tucker's option decision time. I planned on extending to $15 (3 year contract), then got to thinking if his time doesn't look guaranteed, maybe I could throw him back and get him for equal or less.

12 team a.l. only
on base

is the right move to throw him back and hope to purchase cheaper ?

I do have a lot of faith that he is going to turn into a very productive roto player...

[TS Garp]

You're not going to get him for less, especially in an AL only. I'd extend. There's some risk but a ton of upside, as well. He can be a 20/20 guy as soon as this year.

[Sour Masher]

I agree with Garp.

[joncarlos]

Do you believe the hype? There is 20/20 speculation for Tucker. He could go close to $20 in AL only leagues even without 100% guaranteed PT. I really like him but I'm worried the hype train will make him cost prohibitive.

[Ken]

I'd keep him for $5 and enjoy whatever profit I get this year. I don't extend a guy until he's shown he can be elite.

[joncarlos]

I'd keep him for $5 and enjoy whatever profit I get this year. I don't extend a guy until he's shown he can be elite.

In the majors? 30/30 at AAA doesn't do it for you?

[chancellor]

He's essentially one injury away from getting significant PT this year. He's almost certainly starting next year. I'd extend a year to $10. I think you get value this year with upside, and potential big profit next year.

No way I throw him back.

[Ken]

In the majors? 30/30 at AAA doesn't do it for you?

Correct.

Art is asking whether he should throw him back because the Astros OF is full. If you aren't confident that a player will get playing time, that's not an elite guy I want to extend. If he plays well enough this year that I regret that decision, then I just profited on my $5.

And the 30/30 at AAA also came with some prolonged slumps and a lot of Ks.

It's risk vs reward.

Option 1) Extend: Risk - unsure of playing time, might not be worth the contract in 2020. Might not ever be elite at the mlb level. If he busts I'm down $45 of auction dollars. Reward: hoping that by locking him up I see profit in 2021+.

Option 2) Keep him at $5: Risk - goes back into the auction after 2020. If he busts I'm down $5 of auction dollars. Reward - If I wanted to keep him after 2020 that means I just profited big in 2020.

I'll take option 2.

Note, the analysis is obviously very different with an established player who I'm expecting to profit on even with an extension.