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2K20: Alec Bohm

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Ken View Post
    If a source is so bad that it's likely to be off by 50%, then it's just as likely to be off by 95% too. CBS projections are garbage.

    Steamer projects 168 AB. That's at least slightly more reasonable.
    I get your point.

    How many abs do you think he needs to get to be worth $11?

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Gregg View Post
      I get your point.

      How many abs do you think he needs to get to be worth $11?
      I don't know... more than he's going to be healthy for. Players who can't stay healthy at age 31-33 don't tend to get healthy and return to their former performance at age 34. I guess the question back to you, is, from the tens of thousands of players who have played mlb baseball, what's a comp for a player who couldn't stay healthy for several years in their 30s and then was back to a level where he was valuable fantasy-wise again. I'm sure there are a handful we could look at who made it back (and thousands who did not). It's worth looking at that handful for the "best case" scenario I guess.
      Last edited by Ken; 12-12-2019, 08:50 PM.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Ken View Post
        I don't know... more than he's going to be healthy for. Players who can't stay healthy at age 31-33 don't tend to get healthy and return to their former performance at age 34. I guess the question back to you, is, from the tens of thousands of players who have played mlb baseball, what's a comp for a player who couldn't stay healthy for several years and missed a full season in their 30s and then was back to a level where he was valuable fantasy-wise again. I'm sure there are a handful we could look at who made it back (and thousands who did not). It's worth looking at that handful for the "best case" scenario I guess.
        Jason Giambi, Jim Thome, Aaron Hill, Jacoby Ellsbury, Lance Berkman and most recently Jorge Solar (although he is only 27). Jorge has 1591 abs in 8 years with 589 coming this last year.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Gregg View Post
          Jason Giambi, Jim Thome, Aaron Hill, Jacoby Ellsbury, Lance Berkman and most recently Jorge Solar (although he is only 27). Jorge has 1591 abs in 8 years with 589 coming this last year.
          I am not say Cespedes is a sure thing. I am saying I got him as sweetener in an attempt to catch lightening in a bottle. The odds are he will get hurt. I just need him to do it in Spring Training.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Gregg View Post
            Jason Giambi, Jim Thome, Aaron Hill, Jacoby Ellsbury, Lance Berkman and most recently Jorge Solar (although he is only 27). Jorge has 1591 abs in 8 years with 589 coming this last year.
            Yeah, the only 27 thing is sort of the point. Missing time in your 20s means you still have a good chance to rebound. Missing significant portions of seasons in your 30s suggests a possible end of a career.

            As for the rest - Giambi, I dont see any periods where he missed time like Cespedes has and recovered and provided value - but if he had, I personally have some big steroid concerns. I don't think I'm the only one in that camp.
            Thome - until his career trailed off at age 39+ he only really missed ~half a season. Not seeing how that's relevant to Cespedes
            Hill - never had a good season after age 30, I'm not sure this is the example you want to use
            Ellsbury - hasn't played since 2017, and doesn't look like he has a future. Not a good example of a turnaround of any kind that I can see
            Berkman - didn't miss more than 1/4 season until after 2011 and he was done at that point.

            I think you might have missed my ask. I was looking for a position player who missed significant time in his 30s (half a season + for multiple years in a row), and then returned to be a contributor. I'm sure there are some but they are so few and far between I can't think of any off the top of my head.

            Honestly Cespedes' value right now is in the insurance policy the Mets have on him. If he plays, they have made a mistake in my opinion.
            Last edited by Ken; 12-13-2019, 12:04 AM.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Gregg View Post
              I am not say Cespedes is a sure thing. I am saying I got him as sweetener in an attempt to catch lightening in a bottle. The odds are he will get hurt. I just need him to do it in Spring Training.
              I'm trying to play to the outs and I still can't see a path though. He's not expected to be fully healthy for spring training. So it's extremely unlikely that he's going to have enough time to get back into playing shape and dominate spring to the point where you are going to trust that he's 100% back (or even 50% IMO).

              Your call. If he was $1, I could see it as a lotto ticket play. At $11 it feels like you are throwing away auction dollars if you kept him, but I could be wrong.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Ken View Post
                I'm trying to play to the outs and I still can't see a path though. He's not expected to be fully healthy for spring training. So it's extremely unlikely that he's going to have enough time to get back into playing shape and dominate spring to the point where you are going to trust that he's 100% back (or even 50% IMO).

                Your call. If he was $1, I could see it as a lotto ticket play. At $11 it feels like you are throwing away auction dollars if you kept him, but I could be wrong.
                Thanks for the dialog. This is exactly why I love this site.

                It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Heck I might just be in my stubborn I have a hunch mode for all I know.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Ken View Post
                  I
                  Your call. If he was $1, I could see it as a lotto ticket play. At $11 it feels like you are throwing away auction dollars if you kept him, but I could be wrong.
                  Gotta agree here. I play in deep NL only leagues where his price should be highest and I think $4 is the highest anyone would go, and even that is pushing it. If he plays some in ST and looks good, perhaps that changes, but until that point, he's a $1 flier.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    This thread reminds me of another conversation I had recently about keepers.

                    Another owner has Jurickson Profar at $10 in a 15 team mixed league. He's trying to convince me that it makes sense to keep him by explaining how he thinks he will earn that value since he's starting for the Padres and he's a power/speed combo guy. The step he was missing was the market valuation.

                    Yes, you may personally think that a certain player is going to have a great season, but that's not always enough to keep him at $X. It takes a combination of your personal valuation (or a source you trust) and ALSO comparing that against the market. If Profar were to be thrown back into the draft I doubt he costs $5, even with heavy inflation. So why would you keep him at $10? And no, the fact that you personally think he's going to have a great year isn't enough IMO, it takes that PLUS the idea that it's likely that another owner agrees that he's worth it.

                    That's the same situation here in this thread. It's not simply a question of whether we look back in a year and Cespedes earned $11, it's will he likely earn that, and is there also a likely scenario where you'd have to pay more than that amount at auction if you just throw him back? Like The Dane said, he wouldn't likely go for more than $4. The combo of both sides of the discussion of those - your valuation and the market valuation - is where I personally become confident that the answer is no.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Ken View Post
                      This thread reminds me of another conversation I had recently about keepers.

                      Another owner has Jurickson Profar at $10 in a 15 team mixed league. He's trying to convince me that it makes sense to keep him by explaining how he thinks he will earn that value since he's starting for the Padres and he's a power/speed combo guy. The step he was missing was the market valuation.

                      Yes, you may personally think that a certain player is going to have a great season, but that's not always enough to keep him at $X. It takes a combination of your personal valuation (or a source you trust) and ALSO comparing that against the market. If Profar were to be thrown back into the draft I doubt he costs $5, even with heavy inflation. So why would you keep him at $10? And no, the fact that you personally think he's going to have a great year isn't enough IMO, it takes that PLUS the idea that it's likely that another owner agrees that he's worth it.

                      That's the same situation here in this thread. It's not simply a question of whether we look back in a year and Cespedes earned $11, it's will he likely earn that, and is there also a likely scenario where you'd have to pay more than that amount at auction if you just throw him back? Like The Dane said, he wouldn't likely go for more than $4. The combo of both sides of the discussion of those - your valuation and the market valuation - is where I personally become confident that the answer is no.
                      I mostly agree with everything you have written. And I appreciate the continuing dialog. Where we differ is that I am not sure this is the same situation (although it could be). I think I am influenced by our lack of $10 talent available at our auctions. One thing I will do is feel out the league during spring training. If there is no interest i will drop him with the expectation that I would get him back cheaper if I wanted him. If there is good interest I will either trade him or keep him.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Ken View Post
                        This thread reminds me of another conversation I had recently about keepers.

                        Another owner has Jurickson Profar at $10 in a 15 team mixed league. He's trying to convince me that it makes sense to keep him by explaining how he thinks he will earn that value since he's starting for the Padres and he's a power/speed combo guy. The step he was missing was the market valuation.

                        Yes, you may personally think that a certain player is going to have a great season, but that's not always enough to keep him at $X. It takes a combination of your personal valuation (or a source you trust) and ALSO comparing that against the market. If Profar were to be thrown back into the draft I doubt he costs $5, even with heavy inflation. So why would you keep him at $10? And no, the fact that you personally think he's going to have a great year isn't enough IMO, it takes that PLUS the idea that it's likely that another owner agrees that he's worth it.

                        That's the same situation here in this thread. It's not simply a question of whether we look back in a year and Cespedes earned $11, it's will he likely earn that, and is there also a likely scenario where you'd have to pay more than that amount at auction if you just throw him back? Like The Dane said, he wouldn't likely go for more than $4. The combo of both sides of the discussion of those - your valuation and the market valuation - is where I personally become confident that the answer is no.
                        if you like a guy at $15 and the market says no, throw him back and buy him for half...

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                          I mostly agree with everything you have written. And I appreciate the continuing dialog. Where we differ is that I am not sure this is the same situation (although it could be). I think I am influenced by our lack of $10 talent available at our auctions. One thing I will do is feel out the league during spring training. If there is no interest i will drop him with the expectation that I would get him back cheaper if I wanted him. If there is good interest I will either trade him or keep him.
                          You know your league better than any of us do, but $11 seems very steep for Cespedes. I'd say I'm probably as pro-Cespedes as anyone and see him as in interesting risk, but I can't think of any situation where I'd pay $11. In an endgame, too-much-budget-left-over situation, I could see going to $5 or $6, but I think if I really wanted him, I'd throw him out when there were still tons of OFers left and get him for $3.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I'm going to laugh when I'm correct about Cespedes's lack of NL Only value, but for the wrong reasons.

                            According to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, teams have reached out to the Mets about a possible Yoenis
                            Cespedes trade. (This comes after the Mets reached agreement with Cespedes on significant contract amendments following his fall into a hole at his ranch near Port St. Lucie, Florida back in May. He was due a $29.5 million salary in 2020 but now will be guaranteed less than $10 million, and so the veteran outfielder is suddenly a little more attractive on the trade market. Cespedes, 34, missed the entire 2019 season due to serious heel and ankle injuries, but he is aiming to be ready for the beginning of the 2020 campaign.)

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Back to Bohm lol

                              Someone mentioned a lot of swing and miss in his game. I don't see that in the numbers and honestly he has an excellent BB/K rate, and it's been consistent as he has climbed the ladder.
                              Comparing a Fantasy Baseball Draft to an Auction is like comparing Checkers to Chess!!!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Bohm will get plenty of chances.

                                He's a 3B big-bat prospect on a team with a hole at 3B. He's blocked by Scott Kingery and Josh Harrison. Like most prospects, it might not be all peaches and cream at the outset, but he has little left to prove in the minors, room on the MLB roster, and a top pedigree.

                                I don't really bother projecting how well a kid will do during his first call-up. Some great ones take a while. Some look great in their first 5 games and then fade away. I look at opportunity and the path before him. How long will his leash be? How much can he fail and still have a job? The Phillies gave Maikel Franco 656 ABs to prove himself. If they give Bohm half as long a leash, he'll be worth something.

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