Fun with closers.

[Gregg]

I think the Reds are sneaky contenders this year and Iglesias will have a great year, but I'm loathe to give up much for closers.

The owner has decided to keep his $6 Bradley so he is off the table.

He did say he would trade Iglesias $19A for my 3.01 pick. $22 bucks for two closers (no raise on the $3 Yates) is pretty tempting. I would prefer more assurances that Iglesias will in fact start the season as the closer.

[Gregg]

I have traded my 3.01 pick for Iglesias 19A and his 8.07 pick.

Closers are going to be very scarce this year at our auction. It was the deciding factor in rolling the dice.

[Ken]

I have traded my 3.01 pick for Iglesias 19A and his 8.07 pick.

Closers are going to be very scarce this year at our auction. It was the deciding factor in rolling the dice.

I don't think you gave up much, but I feel like this is the wrong approach. If closer prices are going up, then let other people pay high closer prices.

[Gregg]

I don't think you gave up much, but I feel like this is the wrong approach. If closer prices are going up, then let other people pay high closer prices.

Oh they will. I have mine so I will bring out every closer name that I can to take money off the table during the auction.

[Ken]

Oh they will. I have mine so I will bring out every closer name that I can to take money off the table during the auction.

I think $19 is too much.

[Gregg]

I think $19 is too much.

Yes 19 is too much for a closer. Unfortunately that is what "established closers" go for and more. When it comes to closers I income average. So $22 for two closers puts me well under my competiton's spend.

[Ken]

Unfortunately that is what "established closers" go for and more.

But my contention is that you don't need to pay for an established closer and take on that risk. If they are too expensive, don't buy them, reallocate those auction dollars to other areas that will provide more roto value.

You have to buy a 2B, you have to buy several OFers. You aren't required to buy an "established closer". So don't.

Otherwise you are buying 2019 Blake Treinen for $25 just because he's an "established closer".

[Ken]

For fun, lets look at what an "established closer" got you last year. For purposes of demonstration I'm going to use 15 team mixed average auction prices and end of year values.

Diaz cost $22 --------- worth $2 = -$20
Treinen $20 ---------- $0 = -$20
Chapman $20 ----------- $11 = -$9
Jansen $20 ------------ $10 = -$10
Osuna $17 ------------ $13 = -$4
Hand $15 ------------ $10 = -$5
Vazquez $15 ----------- $12 = -$3
Kimbrel $15 ----------- $0 = -$15
Doolittle $15 ---------- $6 = -$9
Hader $15 ------------- $17 = +$2

On average they returned -$9.

Instead lets look at the RP who returned the most value last year, regardless of cost at auction:


Hader (worth $17) - cost $15
Yates ($14) - cost $15
Smith ($13) - cost $2
Hendricks ($13) - cost $0
Osuna ($13) - cost $17
Workman ($12) - cost $0
Vazquez ($12) - cost $12
Chapman ($12) - cost $19
Hand ($10) - cost $15
Pagan ($10) - cost $0

Of the top 10, four of them cost $2 or less.

Why would you ever buy an established closer?

[Gregg]

I am of the belief that one cannot win our league if they punt a category.

in our AL only 5x5 12 team there were 15 saves difference from getting 1 point to getting 7. If you managed to get 62 saves you would get 10 points. Picking up 10 points for $22 bucks is a no brainer.

I have Workman for $5 in my AL.

I have Yates for 3 in my NL.

I will love to pare those guys up with and established closer that I believe will cost less to do now than in the heat of the auction.

Not only will I get some good points for saves, but they will also chip in some positive numbers for the rest of the pitching stats. In addition they make great trading chips if and when they are needed. Lastly, the pawn in the game is that by keeping an extra one inflates by a small margin the remaining auction closers.

To be fair, where this can backfire would be if everyone thought like you and no one bid the closers up to a reasonable level. Exaggerated if all closers went for 10 or less I have wasted money. I have not found this to be true in either of our leagues.

I should also add that I do not pay over 25 for any closer pre-auction or in auction. I do try to get 2 for that same 25 or less.

[Ken]

I am of the belief that one cannot win our league if they punt a category.

in our AL only 5x5 12 team there were 15 saves difference from getting 1 point to getting 7. If you managed to get 62 saves you would get 10 points. Picking up 10 points for $22 bucks is a no brainer.

I don't agree with your analysis here.

Picking up 10 points for $22 bucks may be a no brainer, but you aren't getting 10 points for $22 bucks. You are *hoping* for 62 saves. As I showed above, a top 10 closer was not a predictable category last year. So on average you would not be getting those 62 saves you hope for.

I have Workman for $5 in my AL.

I have Yates for 3 in my NL.

I will love to pare those guys up with and established closer that I believe will cost less to do now than in the heat of the auction.

If you already have those guys, why not supplement with a cheap option? End of auction RP who is in a closer by committee, or pick one up off the wire (similar to how you got Workman I presume)

Not only will I get some good points for saves, but they will also chip in some positive numbers for the rest of the pitching stats.

I don't believe you. Provide evidence that expensive closers are likely to provide positive numbers in the rest of the pitching stats. I don't see that in recent years.

In addition they make great trading chips if and when they are needed.

I understand this argument, but there's a logical fallacy if you can just buy the player you would have traded for using the extra $s instead.

Lastly, the pawn in the game is that by keeping an extra one inflates by a small margin the remaining auction closers.

The inflation of a single player is negligible. And even if it was higher, you are talking about keeping a player at more than their actual value, so the inflation is actually deflation instead.

To be fair, where this can backfire would be if everyone thought like you and no one bid the closers up to a reasonable level. Exaggerated if all closers went for 10 or less I have wasted money. I have not found this to be true in either of our leagues.

I disagree. I think it backfires regardless. If everyone pays up for closers, LET them be the ones who pay up for closers and don't be one of them. By being one of them you are throwing away auction $s.

I should also add that I do not pay over 25 for any closer pre-auction or in auction. I do try to get 2 for that same 25 or less.

I'm saying 25 is still too much.

[Gregg]

Thanks for the dialog and food for thought.

So in our AL only 1st place took second in saves. 2nd place took first place in saves and 3rd place took 3rd in saves.

In the NL only 1st place took second in saves. 2nd place took 7th in saves (lost first by 10 points so not a factor). 3rd place took 3rd in saves.

[Judge Jude]

in BB HQ, I ran up 2019 values based on my league parameters - traditional 12-team NL-only 5x5.

the double-digit returns were:
Hader 34
Yates 33
WSmith 27
Vazquez 26
Jansen 21
Neris 21
Iglesias 17
Doolittle 14
CMart 13

alas, all were freezes from being farmhands or FA pickups in year or more past except:

Jansen - who went for 37
Iglesias - 32
CMart -8, coming off injury and called out late

EDiaz went for 36, paid out 7. oof
Robertson went for 25, paid out -7. another oof
AMiller cost 14, paid out 2

not sure I have paid double digits for a closer in 10-15 years. have had the Midas touch in the end game with end-game dart tosses and FA pickups during season - until this year. six-way tie for my SV lead with..... 1 each


the debacle:

froze Dominguez 10
froze Jeffress 1
bought AMiller 14
DHernandez DL replacement on auction day
FA YLopez
FA Neshek
FA Moronta
FA TGuerrero
FA Dyson
FAAB Stanek 8 (can only buy arrivals from AL)
FAAB Strickland 1

and this is a league with limited dumps of active players. kept getting openings and reaching into the barrel and - getting bit and bit hard