2K20: Yu Darvish

[onejayhawk]

I an noticing that Yu Darvish is doing much better in the ADP than in the too early mocks. The mid-60s ADP groups him with Glasnow, Greinke and Ohtani. The second half numbers justify the optimism, 2.76 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 13.00 K/9 but he is also 33 years old and second year from a major injury. His 2020 projections are 3.85 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.79.

Given that he is clustered with other injury and/or age issues are you paying retail?

J

[revo]

Man, he was phenomenal in the 2nd half. He seemed to finally figure out the strike zone, and went from arguably one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the first half to one of the best in the second.

1st H: 2.27 K/BB ratio
2nd H: 16.86 K/BB ratio

[onejayhawk]

Yessir. The 0.81 WHIP tells you he wasn't walking anyone.

I hope he tells Ohtani. I carried Shohei on IL all last year.

J

[Gregg]

Darvish seems to be a head case. What triggers the self doubts? What brings him out of it?

The talent it there. Is the head. I cannot buy on potential. I will easily take Greinke over Darvish. Of course if Darvish is cheap enough I would bid him. That ship has sailed.

[Judge Jude]

I think it is his health as much as his head.

if he has any hiccups in spring training, I'd be wary. and yeah, no matter what I'd prefer Greinke.

for Darvish Downers, I'd just say this: be ready for a price (or a round) that would work for you. he'll slide pretty far in some leagues, so not an "unsafe at any speed' guy. in an auction, a fan may nominate him very early - hoping there aren't a lot of suitors ready to commit before the other pretty gals have even gotten on the dance floor.....

[onejayhawk]

It's funny we are mentioning head issues in context of Greinke, who used to be a massive head case.

J

[Gregg]

It's funny we are mentioning head issues in context of Greinke, who used to be a massive head case.

J

I don't remember that.

Since 2007 he has had two seasons of era over 4.0 and one season where his whip was 1.30 (his first. Five season his era was under 3.0 (one under 2.0) Seven season with a whip under 1.16 (two seasons under 1.0).

If you are talking about his Sophomore slump in 2005, he took care of that by 2007 and never looked back.

I would really really like Darvish to be the best pitcher in baseball, but he ain't no Zack Greinke.

In our NL only 5x5 12 teamer he will be kept at $13B this year.

[Judge Jude]

he is referring to Greinke's well-documented social anxiety issues.

[Ken]

he is referring to Greinke's well-documented social anxiety issues.

Agree, lots of discussion over that in his early KC days. It felt odd to me that Greinke was being recommended over Darvish due to the mental side too. That said, Greinke's anxiety has not played out on the mount in recent years to my knowledge.

[Gregg]

he is referring to Greinke's well-documented social anxiety issues.

So you are saying that has helped his pitching?!

[Gregg]

Agree, lots of discussion over that in his early KC days. It felt odd to me that Greinke was being recommended over Darvish due to the mental side too. That said, Greinke's anxiety has not played out on the mount in recent years to my knowledge.

It has been well covered in Chicago and even commented on by Darvish himself that his confidence or lack of has affected his pitching.

[Ken]

It has been well covered in Chicago and even commented on by Darvish himself that his confidence or lack of has affected his pitching.

Which is fair (and to add to this, every pitcher's confidence or lack affects their pitching), but then bringing up the poster child for pitchers with mental health issues as an alternative was just odd.

[Gregg]

Which is fair (and to add to this, every pitcher's confidence or lack affects their pitching), but then bringing up the poster child for pitchers with mental health issues as an alternative was just odd.

I was commenting on this from the original post:

I an noticing that Yu Darvish is doing much better in the ADP than in the too early mocks. The mid-60s ADP groups him with Glasnow, Greinke and Ohtani

That is why I commented: I would easily take Greinke over Darvish. I am not convinced that one bad outing doesn't send Darvish spinning out for several starts.

Greinke has shown that since 2007 his issues have not affected the math that is fantasy baseball. Personally I wish him well from a mental standpoint. Personally I hope he has his best season ever next year and Darvish is even better.

Darvish has given me no reason to think he can best Greinke in 2020.

[onejayhawk]

Darvish has given me no reason to think he can best Greinke in 2020.

I can think of two reasons. Age (36 vs 33) and K/9 (8.07 vs 11.54). It's not enough to overcome a full run in ERA, but it is something to chew on.

Add a third. Darvish was the better pitcher in the 2nd half. Since the first half was injury influenced, the second half may be the truer showing.

J