Before the deep freeze... AL Keeper Input?

[Sharky]

Fell just short this year — lost by one SB. Brutal. So I’m looking ahead to next year and would appreciate input on keepers. AL only 5x5. Only 7 keepers allowed plus minor leaguers.

Who are the top 7? Thoughts on extensions? Would you try to trade any of the top 7 because you’re not a believer?

Yuli Gurriel 3B/1B $22
Whit Merrifield 2B/OF $18 - contract must keep/trade
Danny Santana 1B/MI/OF $10
Jorge Soler OF $17
Lance Lynn P $5
Yonny Chirinos $3
Trey Mancini 1B/OF $22
James McCann C $3
George Springer OF $32
Lourdes Gurriel OF $20
Xander Bogaerts SS $29 - option year

[onejayhawk]

I ran the money earned in 2019 and ages. This might make things a bit clearer.

Yuli Gurriel 3B/1B $22 - $27.9, age 36
Whit Merrifield 2B/OF $18 - $26.3, age 31
Danny Santana 1B/MI/OF $10 - $23.6, age 29
Jorge Soler OF $17 - #27.5, age 28
Lance Lynn P $5 - $19.6, age 29
Yonny Chirinos $3 - $12.4, age 26
Trey Mancini 1B/OF $22 - $25.4, age 28
James McCann C $3 - $16.8, age 29
George Springer OF $32 - $26.4, age 30
Lourdes Gurriel OF $20 - $8.1, age 26
Xander Bogaerts SS $29 - $32, age 27

To me it looks like the two pitchers and McCann hold the greatest value.

I think probably Bogaerts and Merrifield. With Santana and Soler, do you believe it or do you expect regression? I would not hesitate to trade any of them. Everyone has question marks about something and only Yonny is under 27. Indeed, age is a bit of an issue throughout.

J

[Ken]

Thoughts:

This is a keeper league, so there's some inflation to consider. Just for this exercise since it is early in the offseason and we dont have clear numbers I'll assume ~25%.

I'm really high on Lourdes Gurriel, but $20 is probably too high, especially when he is no longer 2B eligible. But keep in mind that his 162 game averages are .279 with 34 HR and 7 SB. Maybe there's a buyer on him at $20?

Yuli had a great season, but he's 36 and he's pretty streaky. Given other options I'd be looking to trade him while you can.

Chirinos is an enigma to me, there is certainly value there, but he is heading into his age 26 season and he has pitched 89 IP and 133 IP. I think the perceived value is higher than the actual value.

I don't trust James McCann to repeat those numbers. He could repeat them, but he could also hit .220 with 40 RBI again. I had him on a lot of my teams as a buy low this year, but he's not a buy low anymore. I'd sell him to someone else who expects him to repeat it.

Springer didn't hit his contract $, but he didn't play a full season AND with inflation I bet he hit the mark. Sometimes it's worth keeping a couple players who look underwater, but really are not when inflation is considered.

Keep:

Bogaerts, Merrifield, Soler, Santana, Lynn, Mancini, Springer

Trade:

Yuli/Chirinos/McCann, and even Lourdes if you can find a buyer.

[virgonomic]

Keep:

Bogaerts, Merrifield, Soler, Santana, Lynn, Mancini, Springer

Trade:

Yuli/Chirinos/McCann, and even Lourdes if you can find a buyer.

Seconded. Lots of profit and a couple at-value studs. I might take a flier on McCann over Mancini unless BAL gets him some protection in the offseason. I don't fully trust Santana but he produced for so much of the season it's difficult to discount him.