2K20: Charlie Morton

[onejayhawk]

He was ace material this year. Will he even be back in 2020?

2019 was Morton's best year by far. For the first time he topped 175 IP, going 194 2/3. He had several career bests--ERA 3.02, FIP 2.83, K 240, K/9 11.12, WHIP 1.08, W 16. Keeper league owners were not pleased by rumors of retirement.

His 2020 FIPS projection is in line with his 2019 FIPS projection--137 IP, 146 K, 3.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP so I won't bother posting them.

Does Morton return for his age 36 season? If so, does his work improve, decline or stay about the same?

J

[madducks]

Morton is under contract for $15 million in 2020 and the Rays have a club option for $15 million in 2021.

Morton's durability seems be improving each year. I think his performance has peaked, but can be repeated for another year or two. So, i like him as an SP2 or SP3 next season.

[Gregg]

He was ace material this year. Will he even be back in 2020?

2019 was Morton's best year by far. For the first time he topped 175 IP, going 194 2/3. He had several career bests--ERA 3.02, FIP 2.83, K 240, K/9 11.12, WHIP 1.08, W 16. Keeper league owners were not pleased by rumors of retirement.

His 2020 FIPS projection is in line with his 2019 FIPS projection--137 IP, 146 K, 3.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP so I won't bother posting them.

Does Morton return for his age 36 season? If so, does his work improve, decline or stay about the same?

J

How was his velocity this year compared to 2017 and 2018?

[onejayhawk]

I don't think it's the velocity so much as learning how to pitch. From a Fangraphs article on most improved pitchers

6. Charlie Morton, Rays
The Astros helped the journeyman Morton become a strong enough pitcher to command $15 million per year from the Rays in free agency, and Tampa Bay is getting its money’s worth from the 35-year-old righty, whose 5.2 WAR ranks third in the league. While his 3.13 ERA is a ringer for last year’s 3.11 mark, he’s improved his strikeout, walk, and home run rates — the last to an AL-low 0.71 per nine — en route to a 0.79 drop in FIP (from 3.59 to an AL-low 2.80). Increased use of a curveball/cut fastball combo has been the driver, helping him get a career-best 34.2% chase rate (his 5.4% gain there is the majors’ highest) and better results against lefties .

J

[Gregg]

I don't think it's the velocity so much as learning how to pitch. From a Fangraphs article on most improved pitchers

J

This is where I was headed depending on the answer.

I had my fill of Morton years ago, so while I am aware I am not deep diving on a 36 year old. In our AL league his $3B contract didn't get a raise. He will be back in the auction this year.

[Ken]

Actually with Morton I think it's both. Typically as pitchers age they become better "pitchers" -- control, sequencing, etc. But Morton also picked up velo.

In 2008 when he first came up as a 24 yo in Atlanta's system he was hitting 92. In 2015 at age 31 with Pit he was still 92/93. In 2017 with Houston at age 33 he bumped it up to 95-97. That doesn't happen. You don't find pitchers who increase their velocity at age 33!

This year he was still in the 95 range, but as noted his pitch usage changed, he's still improving as a pitcher.

[Gregg]

Actually with Morton I think it's both. Typically as pitchers age they become better "pitchers" -- control, sequencing, etc. But Morton also picked up velo.

In 2008 when he first came up as a 24 yo in Atlanta's system he was hitting 92. In 2015 at age 31 with Pit he was still 92/93. In 2017 with Houston at age 33 he bumped it up to 95-97. That doesn't happen. You don't find pitchers who increase their velocity at age 33!

This year he was still in the 95 range, but as noted his pitch usage changed, he's still improving as a pitcher.

What would you pay for him in a 12 team only 5x5?

[Ken]

What would you pay for him in a 12 team only 5x5?

He was worth $28/29 in that format in 2019. I don't see much regression here. And I don't *think* you'd have to pay that much to get him in 2020.