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Thread: 2k20 First Round

  1. #1
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    2k20 First Round

    Took my first look today at what a '20 1st round would look like. My first thought is that any sluggers would have a hard time entering the round as they have in the past, and the 5-category types and 4-category types at premium positions will be snapped up quickly. Additionally, higher upside types will float to the surface quicker than the aging players, and while the ace starters are still available, many are getting to the point where injuries may happen more often than before.

    The key is finding players who you're paying to keep it up, and not just for unsustainable '19 production.

    So let's take a look at how I think a 16-team redraft would play out in OBP leagues:

    TOP TIER
    1 - Ronald Acuna
    2 - Christian Yelich
    3 - Mike Trout

    The 5-category studs. I think Acuna, who's a 40-30 candidate, may go #1 in a majority of redraft leagues next season. Trout gets a little dinged as his SBs have dropped off precipitously, and next year may be the season where he struggles to even get a handful of steals.


    SECOND TIER
    4 - Mookie Betts
    5 - Trevor Story

    Betts has taken a hit, but he's still highly capable of 5-category dominance. It's time to take Story seriously as a 5-category stud, and he's the top player at the middle infield spots.


    THIRD TIER
    6 - Francisco Lindor
    7 - Cody Bellinger
    8 - Fernando Tatis Jr.

    Lindor has had a very good season despite his early-season injury. Bellinger is a guy who has performed like a Top 3 player all season long, but the question is whether he will do this again next year, and are you willing to pay for that. Tatis has exploded onto the scene and could be a 30-30 player at SS next year.


    FOURTH TIER
    9 - Juan Soto
    10 - Nolan Arenado
    11 - Freddie Freeman
    12 - Javier Baez

    Soto keeps performing at a high level and with two years of elite production under his belt, you can feel more assured that it will continue. Arenado is an old stand-by who seems immune to dry spells, and Freeman has taken his game to the next level. Baez, even with a lower OBP than his peers, has now provided two seasons of top-caliber production at SS.


    FIFTH TIER
    13 - Ozzie Albies
    14 - Max Scherzer
    15 - Gerrit Cole
    16 - Whit Merrifield

    Albies and Merrifield provide 5-category goodness and will be snapped up quickly in an environment where SBs are hard to find. Scherzer, despite his advancing age, continues to get it done, although I would be very hesitant to take him as he's encountered injuries that have KO'd him and that can continue. Cole appears poised to take over the #1 SP spot and has age on his side.


    Some 2019 1st rounders have slid dramatically -- Stanton, Altuve, Turner, Judge, and of course Jose Ramirez. The latter four may be 2nd rounders, but Stanton I think will slide to late rd 3, early rd 4.

    What do you guys think?

  2. #2
    All Star DMT's Avatar
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    I think Devers is a 1st rounder next year. I'd probably rank him in your 4th tier.
    Last edited by DMT; 08-14-2019 at 11:14 AM.
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    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    I think Devers is a 1st rounder next year. I'd probably rank him in your 4th tier.
    I hesitated on him. Will you simply be paying for this year's breakout, or is it sustainable? Hard to say. I kind of equated him with Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, & Ketel Marte. At worst, i think he goes mid-2nd.

  4. #4
    All Star DMT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    I hesitated on him. Will you simply be paying for this year's breakout, or is it sustainable? Hard to say. I kind of equated him with Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, & Ketel Marte. At worst, i think he goes mid-2nd.
    He's 22, are there indicators that would lead you to believe it's not sustainable? I think I'd take any of those three as well ahead of Albies or Merrifield. Cole is probably worthy of a 1st round pick but Max has started to show cracks...1 start since AS break.
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    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Controller Jacobs's Avatar
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    Think I'd take Bregman over Arenado in an OBP league. Three years younger, a few more SBs, higher OBP and SS+3B elig.
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    I know he didn't produce the expected power but jose ramirez never stopped having the power metrics even when the ball wasn't leaving the yard. that said, ramirez is just 26 for most of next season, and is almost 20-25 with 6 weeks to go in 2019. Hard to discount a history of high production.

    1st round? nobody'll risk it but certainly a 2nd round'er

  7. #7
    Journeyman Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vandelay View Post
    I know he didn't produce the expected power but jose ramirez never stopped having the power metrics even when the ball wasn't leaving the yard. that said, ramirez is just 26 for most of next season, and is almost 20-25 with 6 weeks to go in 2019. Hard to discount a history of high production.

    1st round? nobody'll risk it but certainly a 2nd round'er
    I don't think he'll come close to the 2nd round. Too many players have moved up into that territory and pushed him down.

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    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Pauly's Avatar
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    I cant see Turner slipping that far. He missed so much time, which contributes to the lack of counting stats.

  9. #9
    Journeyman Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Stanton I think will slide to late rd 3, early rd 4.
    great list, I think Stanton slides even further though. We have several years of data showing the same patterns. His upside is huge power output but that's not all that unique anymore. No way I'd take him in the 4th at this point personally.

  10. #10
    All Star DMT's Avatar
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    Bregman and Turner are two more guys I'd rather have than anyone in 5th tier.
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