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Took my first look today at what a '20 1st round would look like. My first thought is that any sluggers would have a hard time entering the round as they have in the past, and the 5-category types and 4-category types at premium positions will be snapped up quickly. Additionally, higher upside types will float to the surface quicker than the aging players, and while the ace starters are still available, many are getting to the point where injuries may happen more often than before.
The key is finding players who you're paying to keep it up, and not just for unsustainable '19 production.
So let's take a look at how I think a 16-team redraft would play out in OBP leagues:
TOP TIER
1 - Ronald Acuna
2 - Christian Yelich
3 - Mike Trout
The 5-category studs. I think Acuna, who's a 40-30 candidate, may go #1 in a majority of redraft leagues next season. Trout gets a little dinged as his SBs have dropped off precipitously, and next year may be the season where he struggles to even get a handful of steals.
SECOND TIER
4 - Mookie Betts
5 - Trevor Story
Betts has taken a hit, but he's still highly capable of 5-category dominance. It's time to take Story seriously as a 5-category stud, and he's the top player at the middle infield spots.
THIRD TIER
6 - Francisco Lindor
7 - Cody Bellinger
8 - Fernando Tatis Jr.
Lindor has had a very good season despite his early-season injury. Bellinger is a guy who has performed like a Top 3 player all season long, but the question is whether he will do this again next year, and are you willing to pay for that. Tatis has exploded onto the scene and could be a 30-30 player at SS next year.
FOURTH TIER
9 - Juan Soto
10 - Nolan Arenado
11 - Freddie Freeman
12 - Javier Baez
Soto keeps performing at a high level and with two years of elite production under his belt, you can feel more assured that it will continue. Arenado is an old stand-by who seems immune to dry spells, and Freeman has taken his game to the next level. Baez, even with a lower OBP than his peers, has now provided two seasons of top-caliber production at SS.
FIFTH TIER
13 - Ozzie Albies
14 - Max Scherzer
15 - Gerrit Cole
16 - Whit Merrifield
Albies and Merrifield provide 5-category goodness and will be snapped up quickly in an environment where SBs are hard to find. Scherzer, despite his advancing age, continues to get it done, although I would be very hesitant to take him as he's encountered injuries that have KO'd him and that can continue. Cole appears poised to take over the #1 SP spot and has age on his side.
Some 2019 1st rounders have slid dramatically -- Stanton, Altuve, Turner, Judge, and of course Jose Ramirez. The latter four may be 2nd rounders, but Stanton I think will slide to late rd 3, early rd 4.
What do you guys think?
The key is finding players who you're paying to keep it up, and not just for unsustainable '19 production.
So let's take a look at how I think a 16-team redraft would play out in OBP leagues:
TOP TIER
1 - Ronald Acuna
2 - Christian Yelich
3 - Mike Trout
The 5-category studs. I think Acuna, who's a 40-30 candidate, may go #1 in a majority of redraft leagues next season. Trout gets a little dinged as his SBs have dropped off precipitously, and next year may be the season where he struggles to even get a handful of steals.
SECOND TIER
4 - Mookie Betts
5 - Trevor Story
Betts has taken a hit, but he's still highly capable of 5-category dominance. It's time to take Story seriously as a 5-category stud, and he's the top player at the middle infield spots.
THIRD TIER
6 - Francisco Lindor
7 - Cody Bellinger
8 - Fernando Tatis Jr.
Lindor has had a very good season despite his early-season injury. Bellinger is a guy who has performed like a Top 3 player all season long, but the question is whether he will do this again next year, and are you willing to pay for that. Tatis has exploded onto the scene and could be a 30-30 player at SS next year.
FOURTH TIER
9 - Juan Soto
10 - Nolan Arenado
11 - Freddie Freeman
12 - Javier Baez
Soto keeps performing at a high level and with two years of elite production under his belt, you can feel more assured that it will continue. Arenado is an old stand-by who seems immune to dry spells, and Freeman has taken his game to the next level. Baez, even with a lower OBP than his peers, has now provided two seasons of top-caliber production at SS.
FIFTH TIER
13 - Ozzie Albies
14 - Max Scherzer
15 - Gerrit Cole
16 - Whit Merrifield
Albies and Merrifield provide 5-category goodness and will be snapped up quickly in an environment where SBs are hard to find. Scherzer, despite his advancing age, continues to get it done, although I would be very hesitant to take him as he's encountered injuries that have KO'd him and that can continue. Cole appears poised to take over the #1 SP spot and has age on his side.
Some 2019 1st rounders have slid dramatically -- Stanton, Altuve, Turner, Judge, and of course Jose Ramirez. The latter four may be 2nd rounders, but Stanton I think will slide to late rd 3, early rd 4.
What do you guys think?
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