next year keepers 2020 - rankings/suggestions

[swampdragon]

I have a few trade offers and am trying to forecast next year

12 team mixed - bench of 7
runs/rbis/hrs/sb/avg/oba
wins/qstarts/saves/ks/era/ratio

I can keep THREE out of this bunch and who is 4th/5th

tim anderson round 18
E Suarez round 13
ohtani- hitter round 13
realmuto round 14
eduardo escobar round 22
villar round 10


are some of this years stats a mirage
escobar?
villar with those sbs?
Ohtani going to get better
Suarez - 2nd hafl of year
Anderson - still keeping avg going?
realmuto - best catcher - but still a catcher?

any comment appreciated!

[Controller Jacobs]

Escobar's stats are similar to last year's:

avg/obp/slug
2019: .274/.331/.522 (508 PA, so far)
2018: .272/.334/.489 (631 PA)

The difference is hr/xbh:
2019: 20 doubles, 9 triples, 25 HR
2018: 48 doubles, 3 triples, 23 HR

He had a more similar hr/xbh ratio in 2017.

The 2018 #s are easily underrated - 74 xbh in 151 g, while getting 20+ starts at each of 2B, 3B, SS is no small feat. Add to that the ball suddenly jumping and I can't see a reason he won't be very good next year.

[revo]

tim anderson round 18
E Suarez round 13
ohtani- hitter round 13
realmuto round 14
eduardo escobar round 22 - definite
villar round 10

I'd keep those three. I wouldn't quarrel if you swapped Villar for Suarez or Anderson. Realmuto in a 12-teamer, nah, you have better here. Ohtani as a DH-only? Ehhh.

[DMT]

tim anderson round 18
E Suarez round 13
ohtani- hitter round 13
realmuto round 14
eduardo escobar round 22 - definite
villar round 10

I'd keep those three. I wouldn't quarrel if you swapped Villar for Suarez or Anderson. Realmuto in a 12-teamer, nah, you have better here. Ohtani as a DH-only? Ehhh.

Agreed

[Ken]

1) Escobar
2) Suarez
3) Villar
4) Realmuto
5) Anderson
6) Ohtani


For me, 6x6 pushes Anderson down with his .296 OBP (even though he's been better this year)

Villar/Realmuto is close assuming this is a 2C league but I'd lean Villar (1 Catcher league it's not particularly close, I'd keep Villar).

[DMT]

1) Escobar
2) Suarez
3) Villar
4) Realmuto
5) Anderson
6) Ohtani


For me, 6x6 pushes Anderson down with his .296 OBP (even though he's been better this year)

Villar/Realmuto is close assuming this is a 2C league but I'd lean Villar (1 Catcher league it's not particularly close, I'd keep Villar).

I agree that having OBP as an extra category hurts Anderson's value, but Villar is too inconsistent to jump him 10 rounds over Anderson IMO.

[Ken]

I agree that having OBP as an extra category hurts Anderson's value, but Villar is too inconsistent to jump him 10 rounds over Anderson IMO.

I see your point, and it's worth considering the rounds in many situations, however here's why I disagree:

1) I think it is 8 rounds and not 10
2) This is a keeper league with at least 3 keepers, so round 10 is closer to round 13
3) In a 12 team mixed league, for reference if we look at round 13 vs round 21 we are talking about $6-7 players vs $2-3 players - remember, value does not fall off linearly, players near the end of the draft are pretty similar. So while a 3rd round vs 11th round is a huge difference, 13th vs 21 is pretty small
4) This format is extremely shallow - a 12 team mixed means there's a ton of value on waivers, so replacement level is high and (similar to #3 but to an even greater extent) after the first handful of rounds a particular round pick vs another has very little value. (Perhaps I'm really just restating 3 here, but it feels like it needs heightened focus).
5) I suspect many keepers will be kept with a cost in the 10th-18th round range - meaning those picks get skipped and those picks are closer together than it appears on surface.

Shallow formats should be stars and scrubs to the extreme. A mid-round type player just does not have much value. So I would not focus on what round draft pick you are giving up after ~round 10. It just does not matter much IMO. So basically, keep the best players at that point, without *much* regard to round. Obviously if you rank two players very closely, keep the one with the lower round compensation, but I wouldn't let that drive the decision here. For an extreme absurd example, it's like if I asked you if you want to stay in your favorite hotel for $2 or a good hotel for 2 pennies - while the "good hotel" may be a better value in return / cost, it doesn't matter at that price point, they are both effectively 0.