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Thread: next year keepers 2020 - rankings/suggestions

  1. #1
    Journeyman swampdragon's Avatar
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    next year keepers 2020 - rankings/suggestions

    I have a few trade offers and am trying to forecast next year

    12 team mixed - bench of 7
    runs/rbis/hrs/sb/avg/oba
    wins/qstarts/saves/ks/era/ratio

    I can keep THREE out of this bunch and who is 4th/5th

    tim anderson round 18
    E Suarez round 13
    ohtani- hitter round 13
    realmuto round 14
    eduardo escobar round 22
    villar round 10


    are some of this years stats a mirage
    escobar?
    villar with those sbs?
    Ohtani going to get better
    Suarez - 2nd hafl of year
    Anderson - still keeping avg going?
    realmuto - best catcher - but still a catcher?

    any comment appreciated!

  2. #2
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Controller Jacobs's Avatar
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    Escobar's stats are similar to last year's:

    avg/obp/slug
    2019: .274/.331/.522 (508 PA, so far)
    2018: .272/.334/.489 (631 PA)

    The difference is hr/xbh:
    2019: 20 doubles, 9 triples, 25 HR
    2018: 48 doubles, 3 triples, 23 HR

    He had a more similar hr/xbh ratio in 2017.

    The 2018 #s are easily underrated - 74 xbh in 151 g, while getting 20+ starts at each of 2B, 3B, SS is no small feat. Add to that the ball suddenly jumping and I can't see a reason he won't be very good next year.
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  3. #3
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    tim anderson round 18
    E Suarez round 13

    ohtani- hitter round 13
    realmuto round 14
    eduardo escobar round 22 - definite
    villar round 10

    I'd keep those three. I wouldn't quarrel if you swapped Villar for Suarez or Anderson. Realmuto in a 12-teamer, nah, you have better here. Ohtani as a DH-only? Ehhh.

  4. #4
    All Star DMT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    tim anderson round 18
    E Suarez round 13

    ohtani- hitter round 13
    realmuto round 14
    eduardo escobar round 22 - definite
    villar round 10

    I'd keep those three. I wouldn't quarrel if you swapped Villar for Suarez or Anderson. Realmuto in a 12-teamer, nah, you have better here. Ohtani as a DH-only? Ehhh.
    Agreed
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  5. #5
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    1) Escobar
    2) Suarez
    3) Villar
    4) Realmuto
    5) Anderson
    6) Ohtani


    For me, 6x6 pushes Anderson down with his .296 OBP (even though he's been better this year)

    Villar/Realmuto is close assuming this is a 2C league but I'd lean Villar (1 Catcher league it's not particularly close, I'd keep Villar).

  6. #6
    All Star DMT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    1) Escobar
    2) Suarez
    3) Villar
    4) Realmuto
    5) Anderson
    6) Ohtani


    For me, 6x6 pushes Anderson down with his .296 OBP (even though he's been better this year)

    Villar/Realmuto is close assuming this is a 2C league but I'd lean Villar (1 Catcher league it's not particularly close, I'd keep Villar).
    I agree that having OBP as an extra category hurts Anderson's value, but Villar is too inconsistent to jump him 10 rounds over Anderson IMO.
    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    I agree that having OBP as an extra category hurts Anderson's value, but Villar is too inconsistent to jump him 10 rounds over Anderson IMO.
    I see your point, and it's worth considering the rounds in many situations, however here's why I disagree:

    1) I think it is 8 rounds and not 10
    2) This is a keeper league with at least 3 keepers, so round 10 is closer to round 13
    3) In a 12 team mixed league, for reference if we look at round 13 vs round 21 we are talking about $6-7 players vs $2-3 players - remember, value does not fall off linearly, players near the end of the draft are pretty similar. So while a 3rd round vs 11th round is a huge difference, 13th vs 21 is pretty small
    4) This format is extremely shallow - a 12 team mixed means there's a ton of value on waivers, so replacement level is high and (similar to #3 but to an even greater extent) after the first handful of rounds a particular round pick vs another has very little value. (Perhaps I'm really just restating 3 here, but it feels like it needs heightened focus).
    5) I suspect many keepers will be kept with a cost in the 10th-18th round range - meaning those picks get skipped and those picks are closer together than it appears on surface.

    Shallow formats should be stars and scrubs to the extreme. A mid-round type player just does not have much value. So I would not focus on what round draft pick you are giving up after ~round 10. It just does not matter much IMO. So basically, keep the best players at that point, without *much* regard to round. Obviously if you rank two players very closely, keep the one with the lower round compensation, but I wouldn't let that drive the decision here. For an extreme absurd example, it's like if I asked you if you want to stay in your favorite hotel for $2 or a good hotel for 2 pennies - while the "good hotel" may be a better value in return / cost, it doesn't matter at that price point, they are both effectively 0.
    Last edited by Ken; 08-12-2019 at 05:56 PM.

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