How to value top prospects

[onejayhawk]

16 team, draft, H2H, keep 3 plus options, OBA and Holds

I have a prospect oriented team that finds itself in contention. I have Robles, Roberts, Adell, Franco, Royce Lewis, all with three option years remaining (option is draft/keep round minus 4). The team is currently in 2nd place and playing well. The rotation of Darvish, Ray, Morton and Lynn is doing well but there is no depth. The bullpen is fair.

The offense is OF driven--Yelich, Acuna, Robles which may be prompting nibbles concerning Roberts and Adell. How would you evaluate them against rental and age 30+ talent?

[Gregg]

If I was in first place I would find it hard to trade those great prospects.

If I felt I needed to it would have to be for a haul. Lewis would probably be the one I would offer. He has name recognition and I like the others better.

And I am not trading Adell.

[Sour Masher]

If I am in your spot, I identify my biggest needs and try to get as many of them as possible addressed by trading Lewis. Lewis is still a very highly rated and regarded prospect, so you will likely still get a good return, but he has a looong way to go at the plate and he is no where near the other guys you have in terms of offensive right now. I'd keep the rest, if possible. They are all studs. But I'd definitely move Lewis to compete this year. You can afford to do that with all those other stud prospects.

ETA: Gregg beat me to it. I agree with him, basically.

[Ken]

*Following*

I'm in almost exactly the same spot in my 15 team mixed keeper.

Team is held up by my OF of Acuna, Blackmon, Springer, Rosario, Puig (although Baez, Moncada, Mondesi, Lourdes in the IF don't hurt). Pitching is my only weakness right now (Snell, Woodruff, Paddack.... Quintana? Musgrove? ERod? Canning? Gallen??)

I have Adell, Gore, K. Tucker as prospects. 2nd place is closing in. Hate the idea of trading Adell or Gore. Kyle Tucker may actually help me down the stretch. Do I push all in by trading the prospects? If so what should I get back? For Adell I tried to get Carlos Santana (with the idea being to flip another bat for an ace) and Darvish, which I thought was light, but got rejected. This league doesn't value prospects very highly. So... hold and hope that 2nd place can't catch me?

[Sour Masher]

Wow in my league that Santana and Darvish offer would have been accepted immediately, by any owner, including me, who is contending and owns Santana, because i know I could flip Adell for even more. My league is all about prospects, but that is because our set up allows us to wait longer before they we have to pay them much. I agree, I'd hold on to Adell and Gore. As far as Tucker helping you this year, he has teased that before and not delivered. I'd try to move him for pitching, but I wouldn't give him away.

[Sharky]

Agreed. Don’t deal Adell for Santana. Not enough.

[Ken]

Sorry to hijack your thread 1J!

For context, Adell is $15A and all players advance contracts regardless of minor league status. But they only count against the auction cap and take up an active spot if they lose rookie eligibility. So Adell will be $15B and likely "free" next year relative to the $260, but $15C (or extended) and likely take up an OF spot and count against the auction budget in 2021. C. Santana is $8B, and would be $8C next year.

[Gregg]

Sorry to hijack your thread 1J!

For context, Adell is $15A and all players advance contracts regardless of minor league status. But they only count against the auction cap and take up an active spot if they lose rookie eligibility. So Adell will be $15B and likely "free" next year relative to the $260, but $15C (or extended) and likely take up an OF spot and count against the auction budget in 2021. C. Santana is $8B, and would be $8C next year.

If Adell is what we think he is you will get profit next year and be glad to give him a year or two in 2021.

That said if the money or trophy is worth it to you get a top healthy lights out pitcher. Someone in your league has to know about Adell and want him. I just gave up G. Cole at 43B for Kirilloff 2F in my rebuild. I have very high hopes for Kirilloff. And I like Adell better, but I already own him.

[Sour Masher]

Sorry to hijack your thread 1J!

For context, Adell is $15A and all players advance contracts regardless of minor league status. But they only count against the auction cap and take up an active spot if they lose rookie eligibility. So Adell will be $15B and likely "free" next year relative to the $260, but $15C (or extended) and likely take up an OF spot and count against the auction budget in 2021. C. Santana is $8B, and would be $8C next year.

That changes things. In my league, a prospect is free until he goes over 200 ABs or 75 IPs and then 5 bucks after that for 1-2 years before extension. In your situation, Santana is actually cheaper, and up and hitting great this year. Tough call.

[onejayhawk]

*Following*

I'm in almost exactly the same spot in my 15 team mixed keeper.

Team is held up by my OF of Acuna, Blackmon, Springer, Rosario, Puig (although Baez, Moncada, Mondesi, Lourdes in the IF don't hurt). Pitching is my only weakness right now (Snell, Woodruff, Paddack.... Quintana? Musgrove? ERod? Canning? Gallen??)

I have Adell, Gore, K. Tucker as prospects. 2nd place is closing in. Hate the idea of trading Adell or Gore. Kyle Tucker may actually help me down the stretch. Do I push all in by trading the prospects? If so what should I get back? For Adell I tried to get Carlos Santana (with the idea being to flip another bat for an ace) and Darvish, which I thought was light, but got rejected. This league doesn't value prospects very highly. So... hold and hope that 2nd place can't catch me?

Wow. I also have Rosario and Mondesi.

In this league, option years count for a lot. I have had Roberts two full seasons to get to this point, so I have two seasons of dead roster space invested. That said, 7 man bench.