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How Far do you Commit if you know you don't Realistically Have a Shot?

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  • How Far do you Commit if you know you don't Realistically Have a Shot?

    I think that's a valid question to ask.

    I rarely like to dump, so I usually try to find a way to be competitive every year. In RJEL, I think I have a really good team, but as others have noted here, there are a couple of powerhouses that are dominating and are 27-36 points ahead. I'm currently battling for 4th place (which is the last money spot) and best case, maybe I get to 3rd. 5th place gets the top pick in the rookie draft, of which I still own my 1st rounder, so all is not lost.

    I've made a few moves already, dealing away Gallo 7-'20, Hiura, DuPlantier & India (all unactivated) & Hampson 4-zero, but I'm hesitant to trade away my last few chips to possibly not gain any real ground. My last few chips are my draft picks (I own all), MLers Hays, Singer, Turang & Ray, and some quality actives who are helping me: Realmuto 11-B, Dietrich 1-A, Dyson 3-A, Corbin 9-'20, Hader 2-A, Wheeler 3-B, Berrios 9-'20, Caleb Smith 4-A.

    I'm up against the cap, but could clear out $20-$30 if need be in dead parts.

    Is it time to just ride it out? I could use a couple of starting pitchers as I'm 2nd to last in wins and mid-pack in ERA (although I'm 3rd in Ks) and don't really need much on offense.

  • #2
    I was just thinking about that. Is 3rd or 4th place better than 5th and the first rookie pick ? Not sure what i would do, probably depends how often i have finished in the money
    ---------------------------------------------
    Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
    ---------------------------------------------
    The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
    George Orwell, 1984

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm in the same spot, only questioning the other direction. Sitting 5/7ish in PONY where the top 4 are paid. Problem is, I'm closer to 11th than I am to 4th. I've got a bunch of expiring contracts that I should probably move, but I'm reticent to dump. Looking at my team, I can dream on Kuchel and Luzardo saving my pitching staff, but how likely is that? After that, I don't see were my surge is coming from. Can I dump when I am regularly 1 place out of the money?
      I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by heyelander View Post
        I'm in the same spot, only questioning the other direction. Sitting 5/7ish in PONY where the top 4 are paid. Problem is, I'm closer to 11th than I am to 4th. I've got a bunch of expiring contracts that I should probably move, but I'm reticent to dump. Looking at my team, I can dream on Kuchel and Luzardo saving my pitching staff, but how likely is that? After that, I don't see were my surge is coming from. Can I dump when I am regularly 1 place out of the money?
        Dump man, believe ! Life after this year is what matters
        ---------------------------------------------
        Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
        ---------------------------------------------
        The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
        George Orwell, 1984

        Comment


        • #5
          general angles:

          1. do you personally need any extra money that is in play?
          2. how long has it been since you have finished second, or in the money at all?
          3. is there a rival who you might beat out that would produce major satisfaction, not matter the rest of the league?
          4. what is the 'prize' for just missing, and what does it mean to you?
          5. are you likely to rebuild anyway next year even if standing pat - or can you expect to contend next year unless you 'sell your soul?'

          re No. 4: last year we had one owner who absolutely wanted to gain 5th - maybe 50 bucks - and another who preferred 6th - and the No. 1 farm pick the following April. both got what they wanted.

          I'm currently in 7th, and the leader is up by about 25 points on 2nd - whereas as I am only 15 points out of second.

          so I relate, is what I'm saying! I'm hedging for a couple of more weeks....
          finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
          own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
          won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

          SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
          RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
          C Stallings 2, Casali 1
          1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
          OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
            general angles:

            1. do you personally need any extra money that is in play?
            2. how long has it been since you have finished second, or in the money at all?
            3. is there a rival who you might beat out that would produce major satisfaction, not matter the rest of the league?
            4. what is the 'prize' for just missing, and what does it mean to you?
            5. are you likely to rebuild anyway next year even if standing pat - or can you expect to contend next year unless you 'sell your soul?'

            re No. 4: last year we had one owner who absolutely wanted to gain 5th - maybe 50 bucks - and another who preferred 6th - and the No. 1 farm pick the following April. both got what they wanted.

            I'm currently in 7th, and the leader is up by about 25 points on 2nd - whereas as I am only 15 points out of second.

            so I relate, is what I'm saying! I'm hedging for a couple of more weeks....
            1 - No, although I do have a "Fantasy Sports $$$ Account" where I keep my winnings and pay for future leagues and fantasy subscriptions, so every dollar counts towards not having to ask my wife for money!

            2 - Interesting. I looked back at the RJEL standings and have never finished higher than 3rd place, although I've been competitive in what will be 9 of the last 12 seasons:
            2019 - currently 5th
            2018 - 6th
            2017 - 13th
            2016 - 5th
            2015 - 5th
            2014 - 16th
            2013 - 3rd
            2012 - 7th
            2011 - 3rd
            2010 - 12th
            2009 - 3rd
            2008 - 5th

            3 - no

            4 - just missing = top spots in the rookie draft. As you can see from the above list, I've landed a high rookie pick 5 times, although I have no idea if I held or traded those picks. This year I had the #2 rookie pick in a relatively weak class but traded him away one month into the season.

            5 - My strategy usually entails keeping a core group of actives for the next season (and when dumping trading for active players over MLers), and as you can also guess from looking at the list, I usually don't have enough quality prospects to make an impact on my own team, or to trade away for a pirate's booty. But, that strategy has kept me in the game 75% of the time.

            Comment


            • #7
              Tough call. If you can make a small push I probably would. I wouldn’t mind trading someone like Kebryan Hayes for upgrades.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
                Dump man, believe ! Life after this year is what matters
                Doing more basically loses you ground in future years.
                "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

                Comment


                • #9
                  So since this post, my team has surged about 15 points, and I’m now 5 pts out of 3rd and 20 pts out of 1st. Still hesitant to make too many more moves, but at this point I think I have to.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    1st for me and all is long gone

                    but I'm only 17 points out of second
                    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
                      Doing more basically loses you ground in future years.
                      Disagree, my beliefs lineup as follows ....

                      Drastic moves become lifelines toward the future
                      I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by heyelander View Post
                        Disagree, my beliefs lineup as follows ....

                        Drastic moves become lifelines toward the future
                        I disagree
                        ---------------------------------------------
                        Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                        ---------------------------------------------
                        The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                        George Orwell, 1984

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
                          I disagree
                          I see what you did there.
                          I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

                          Comment

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