Foolish Hubris or Savvy Buy-Low

[Sour Masher]

My pitching is dominating and I am in good shape to make a run at a 3peat this year in my 14 team league (my power hitters need to come around, but my hitting is good enough with the pitching dominance I have, I think). I bought low on Sale earlier in the year at just the right time, adding to my wealth of pitching. After tonight's 17k insanity I was curious what the Red Sox fan in my league would give to get his paws on Sale, as he is loaded with hitters. Instead of hitting, Severino is on the table.

At first, it seems like an easy pass--Severino is out till after the AS break, and shoulder/lat injuries are super scary. However, going for this 3peat has really thinned me out on keepers and prospects. I'm not complaining mind you, but it is what it is. I like to be able to compete every year, and if I can manage to make a move this year that doesn't jeopardize my chances while giving me long term value, I'm tempted. Severino is a cheap keeper for two more year's after this one ($20, but in my league, with a $400 budget, that is very cheap...Sale went for over 100 this year). So, is it foolish of me to trade a healthy, elite bird in the hand for an injured pitcher who may not return to form even when he gets back later this year? Or is is a savvy move toward continuing competitiveness to trade a non-keeper Sale for 2.5 years of very cheap, in my league's context, Severino? Right now, my pitching looks golden, but it is a long season, and I am already down Kluber for most of it. I may be underestimating the inevitable regression and possibility of more injuries when assessing my staff. It is star-studded, though, including Snell, Bauer, Cole, Sale, Archer, Happ, Efflin, and injured Kluber, and Heaney

[Ken]

Do we know Sev recovers 100% this year? What will he be like when he comes back this year, and even next year? Shoulder surgery plus Lat issue - doesn't instill confidence. I'd keep Sale at this point.

[Sour Masher]

Do we know Sev recovers 100% this year? What will he be like when he comes back this year, and even next year? Shoulder surgery plus Lat issue - doesn't instill confidence. I'd keep Sale at this point.

Yeah, I think I have too. Still, so tempting. Severino is so cheap in my league context for two more years. Of course, that value turns into an anchor if Severino is broken long term.

[revo]

Ummmm, with all due respect......hell no?? Severino is just as likely to undergo surgery as he is to return at this point. Seal the win.

[Sour Masher]

Ummmm, with all due respect......hell no?? Severino is just as likely to undergo surgery as he is to return at this point. Seal the win.

Yeah, sometimes I am too clever for my good. I'm playing a trade up game, seeing how far I can go with it. My buy lows and sell highs have been working great so far. I got Sale at a big discount from a panicked owner, and so I guess I feel I'm playing with house money. Part of it is my obsessing with getting back guys I traded away that broke out. A few years ago, I traded Severino as a prospect for Dozier. Dozier helped me win, but I have wanted Severino back ever since. If I was certain he would come back in July good as ever, I'd jump to do this. A healthy Severino represents tremendous keeper value at his price. But there is no such certainty.

[Sour Masher]

I know I am beating a dead horse, but I have another offer that involves a hurt arm, also $20 for two more years. I could get Taillon, a cheap Hunter Dozier and a couple if mid-tier pitching prospects (weathers and singer), for Sale. I know some are calling Dozier legit, but it is hard for me to buy. Still, if he was, this deal might make a bit more sense.

I do worry about Sale's typical late season fade, so I did bank on Sale bouncing back and increasing his trade value while helping me, and then flipping him late for more than I gave for him. But it is way earlier than I considered. If he keeps pitching like this, it isn't like these offers will go away. I can probably ride him till August and get the same returns then.

[Hornsby]

I know I am beating a dead horse, but I have another offer that involves a hurt arm, also $20 for two more years. I could get Taillon, a cheap Hunter Dozier and a couple if mid-tier pitching prospects (weathers and singer), for Sale. I know some are calling Dozier legit, but it is hard for me to buy. Still, if he was, this deal might make a bit more sense.

I do worry about Sale's typical late season fade, so I did bank on Sale bouncing back and increasing his trade value while helping me, and then flipping him late for more than I gave for him. But it is way earlier than I considered. If he keeps pitching like this, it isn't like these offers will go away. I can probably ride him till August and get the same returns then.

Stop overthinking it...stick with what you have.

[Ken]

Stop overthinking it...stick with what you have.

Exactly. I wouldn't take Taillon + Dozier + 2 prospects for Sale if Taillon was healthy - Sale is worth much more (at least if you are competing) - so why do it when Taillon is not healthy?

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, you are all right. I guess I'm like the receiver who starts celebrating the TD before crossing the line. I may have gotten too cocky with my recent run. In the back of my mind, I think I have the 3peat with or without Sale, and I also see the big fall off next year in keeper talent as something that will be tough for me to deal with. I'm not used to not being in the running. Maybe I will still somehow manage it next year, but it sure will be tough if I don't pick up some keepers. But I gotta stick with what got me the last two titles--think about now and to heck with next year.

[Gregg]

Exactly. I wouldn't take Taillon + Dozier + 2 prospects for Sale if Taillon was healthy - Sale is worth much more (at least if you are competing) - so why do it when Taillon is not healthy?

I think he likes the trade rush. It is immediate rather than the gradual good feeling of winning.

[Sour Masher]

I think he likes the trade rush. It is immediate rather than the gradual good feeling of winning.

hey, you know I'm here too, right? . I do like the trade rush and sometimes do trades just to do them. But it does serve me well. It would be too long to outline all of the trades that led from point A to point B, but through half a dozen different deals, I ended up flipping Bo Bichette for Chris Sale, Khris Davis, Yandy Diaz, Kotlen Wong, Jesus Luzardo, Tyler O'Neill, and Hans Crouse this year. Each time, I bought low and sold high, sometimes playing the long game and sometimes playing the short game of trading just for this year. Trading is fun. It is at least half the fun I get out of doing this. Of course, winning is fun too, so that is why I came here to get talked out of doing a deal I knew would be a bad idea .

[cavebird]

I want in to your league of panic-trading Sale owners. To join the choir, either of those trades is just silly and bad.

[Sour Masher]

I want in to your league of panic-trading Sale owners. To join the choir, either of those trades is just silly and bad.

Well, it is easy to see in hindsight, but not only were most of the owners in my league gun shy of Sale, so were a lot of very smart people here. After all, he ended last season poorly, and his velocity was down in the 80s when I made the deal. I don't mean to call out JonCarlos, but I name him because I consider him one of the most knowledgeable people here, and he was saying he was down on Sale, comparing him to Mikolas going forward. He wasn't alone in thinking that Sale was going to have to go through a process of reinventing himself, because he didn't seem to have his vintage stuff anymore. And to be clear, I didn't get Sale for free. I had to trade a cheap Albies that I had on a three year contract for him. The move was a bit of a gamble at the time.