Happy vlad day!!...

[Mithrandir]

That was hilarious!

Well played.

At least someone here has a sense of humor!

[Ken]

At least someone here has a sense of humor!

What? I tried emulating you! I posted something ridiculous and acted like it's good information. Am I doing it wrong?

[Mithrandir]

What? I tried emulating you! I posted something ridiculous and acted like it's good information. Am I doing it wrong?

Completely wrong. I post ridiculous stuff but never say it is based on good information. It's based on my impatience and incredulity at the mediocre play of my players regardless of what the advanced metrics tell me.

I know the metrics guys love to drool over their advanced stats to predict what players will regress or progress and that's fine. But for folks like me who have been doing this for almost 30 years, some of the joy we get is bitching and moaning when our guys aren't performing like we expect them to.

[Ken]

Completely wrong. I post ridiculous stuff but never say it is based on good information.

Check again, I said you ACT like your information is good, not that you say it. It's like complaining that you're hot in the middle of summer while wearing a winter coat sitting next to a fire. You don't have to tell people you are sitting next to a fire to get strange looks.

It's based on my impatience and incredulity at the mediocre play of my players regardless of what the advanced metrics tell me.

Those traits drive bad decisions though. Anyone can be impatient, and anyone can look at the fantasy numbers and draw terrible conclusions. That's not helpful in any way. The utility of a roto site is to actually digging deeper than that. So I don't really see the point.

I know the metrics guys love to drool over their advanced stats to predict what players will regress or progress and that's fine.

This is a statistics based game, so disparaging stats is an odd look. You can yell get off my lawn if you want but the advancements in data analysis in sports helps predictive applications - like you should be interested in with fantasy sports.

But for folks like me who have been doing this for almost 30 years

Congratulations, I think everyone on this board has been playing this game for a very long time too!

some of the joy we get is bitching and moaning when our guys aren't performing like we expect them to.

Who is this "we", and why do you get joy out of bitching?

Regardless, maybe we need to revive the bitching thread and keep the bitching and moaning to that one. It becomes problematic only when it's interspersed with the actual analysis and good information.

[Mithrandir]

Check again, I said you ACT like your information is good, not that you say it. It's like complaining that you're hot in the middle of summer while wearing a winter coat sitting next to a fire. You don't have to tell people you are sitting next to a fire to get strange looks.



Those traits drive bad decisions though. Anyone can be impatient, and anyone can look at the fantasy numbers and draw terrible conclusions. That's not helpful in any way. The utility of a roto site is to actually digging deeper than that. So I don't really see the point.



This is a statistics based game, so disparaging stats is an odd look. You can yell get off my lawn if you want but the advancements in data analysis in sports helps predictive applications - like you should be interested in with fantasy sports.



Congratulations, I think everyone on this board has been playing this game for a very long time too!




Who is this "we", and why do you get joy out of bitching?

Regardless, maybe we need to revive the bitching thread and keep the bitching and moaning to that one. It becomes problematic only when it's interspersed with the actual analysis and good information.

My finishes the last 7 years in my league: 4 titles, 2 seconds and a 5th place finish (a little crappy 14 team local league) indicate that either I am the luckiest fantasy player in the league or the best..or somewhere in between. My lack of using advanced metrics hasn't seem to hurt me none!

I post this not to show that I'm some brilliant fantasy baller in my little league, but just so you know that i know what the heck I'm doing. Even if you disparage how i do it.

And i do enjoy your metrical breakdown of players, even though i think you overrate the value that it has on fantasy performances.

And i have no idea how you break down those quotes like you (and others) did in the previous post!

[Ken]

My finishes the last 7 years in my league: 4 titles, 2 seconds and a 5th place finish (a little crappy 14 team local league) indicate that either I am the luckiest fantasy player in the league or the best..or somewhere in between. My lack of using advanced metrics hasn't seem to hurt me none!

I post this not to show that I'm some brilliant fantasy baller in my little league, but just so you know that i know what the heck I'm doing. Even if you disparage how i do it.

One of the worst fantasy owners in one of my home leagues, a guy who is just terrible at fantasy, dominates his office league. I don't think you can derive much from an individual league's numbers. When looking at dominance in one league I think it says more about the other members of the league than one particular owner.

That said, I don't think you are a bad fantasy player by any means, you are here talking about baseball, you keep up. But I think larger scale analysis would show that looking at small samples and making rash decisions like you post about is counterproductive to your goal of success in fantasy. In fact its exactly the type of owner I look to trade with early.

And i do enjoy your metrical breakdown of players, even though i think you overrate the value that it has on fantasy performances.

Based on what? Anecdotal evidence? Or actual analysis?

And i have no idea how you break down those quotes like you (and others) did in the previous post!

copy the [(backslash)Quote] from the end of a quote and put it in middle. That will end the original quote. Then copy the [QUOTE=whomever block and paste it after your entry and it will start their quote block again.

[Msaint]

Can we PLEASE get back to Vlad owners now panicking and wanting to trade him for Eric Sogard?!...

[Ken]

Can we PLEASE get back to Vlad owners now panicking and wanting to trade him for Eric Sogard?!...

Nah, there's a 2019 Vlad thread and a 2019 Blue Jays thread for that

[Mithrandir]

[QUOTE=Ken;341121]One of the worst fantasy owners in one of my home leagues, a guy who is just terrible at fantasy, dominates his office league. I don't think you can derive much from an individual league's numbers. When looking at dominance in one league I think it says more about the other members of the league than one particular owner. That's why I said my little local league! (Madducks and Mag 7 suck by the way )

That said, I don't think you are a bad fantasy player by any means, you are here talking about baseball, you keep up. But I think larger scale analysis would show that looking at small samples and making rash decisions like you post about is counterproductive to your goal of success in fantasy. In fact its exactly the type of owner I look to trade with early. I rarely ever make rash trade decisions. I just bitch about players.



Based on what? Anecdotal evidence? Or actual analysis? I don't necessarily believe that current or past metric indicators are that predictive going forward. Say a pitcher has an ERA of 5.00 and an xFip of 2.50. That just indicates that he has been unlucky SO FAR, right? Doesn't necessarily mean his ERA will come down. He might just be a mediocre pitcher who was a bit unlucky. Or am I way off base?



copy the [(backslash)Quote] from the end of a quote and put it in middle. That will end the original quote. Then copy the [QUOTE=whomever block and paste it after your entry and it will start their quote block again.[/QUOTE]



I replied in bold.

[Ken]

I don't necessarily believe that current or past metric indicators are that predictive going forward. Say a pitcher has an ERA of 5.00 and an xFip of 2.50. That just indicates that he has been unlucky SO FAR, right? Doesn't necessarily mean his ERA will come down. He might just be a mediocre pitcher who was a bit unlucky. Or am I way off base?

xFIP is more predictive of future ERA than ERA is. In other words, you are more likely to derive this year's ERA based on last year's xFIP than last year's ERA. It is a more predictive stat. That doesn't mean he's going to have a 2.5 ERA, nor should you expect that. It's just better at predicting the ERA than then ERA is.

Here's a quick article to describe some of those relationships (I'm sure there are others, this was just the first hit) - https://community.fangraphs.com/a-br...ching-metrics/

Here's another one with more recent data: https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-de...fip-and-siera/

If you aren't into the math, here's the summary from the 2nd article:

We can surmise is that ERA was more predictive of itself in the next year than FIP, but not as predictive as xFIP or SIERA, with SIERA leading the way

[TranaGreg]

Who is this "we", and why do you get joy out of bitching?

Regardless, maybe we need to revive the bitching thread and keep the bitching and moaning to that one. It becomes problematic only when it's interspersed with the actual analysis and good information.

fwiw, I personally don't see it as problematic; we analyze, we bitch, we assess, we moan ... readers can assess the value of a post on their own, it doesn't need to be empirically validated ... IMHO ...

[Mithrandir]

xFIP is more predictive of future ERA than ERA is. In other words, you are more likely to derive this year's ERA based on last year's xFIP than last year's ERA. It is a more predictive stat. That doesn't mean he's going to have a 2.5 ERA, nor should you expect that. It's just better at predicting the ERA than then ERA is.

Here's a quick article to describe some of those relationships (I'm sure there are others, this was just the first hit) - https://community.fangraphs.com/a-br...ching-metrics/

Here's another one with more recent data: https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-de...fip-and-siera/

If you aren't into the math, here's the summary from the 2nd article:

Thanks.