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Breakouts that may be real

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  • #16
    Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post
    Nice to see a bunch of names I own in this thread. Excluding rookies:

    Clint Frazier
    Danny Vogelbach
    Domingo Santana
    Trey Mancini
    Tim Anderson
    Chad Pinder

    Matt Boyd
    Max Fried
    Zack Eflin
    Shane Bieber

    Bouncebacks:
    Alex Gordon
    Jay Bruce
    Tim Beckham


    J
    Checking back in on Beckham. He WAS a former top pick (and TB, relative to a lot of teams, knows how to draft) and seems to have found a home where he doesn't have to worry about playing time, more than doubled his career walk rate (6-ish% to 13-ish%), launch angle and exit velo up, etc.

    Also, glad to see I own Domingo Santana and Boyd on this list, too. Santana and Beckham are obviously energized by this better-than-expected M's lineup.
    12-team mixed keeper. 6x6 (OBP, QS the extra categories).

    C- J.McCann
    1B-Cron
    2B- Villar
    SS- Andrus
    3B-Baez
    MI-L. Gurriel
    CI- Y.Gurriel
    OF- Blackmon, Judge, Betts, Dom.Santana
    UTIL- Benintendi
    BENCH: Pence, Dyson
    SP: Verlander, Scherzer, M. Boyd, JA Happ, Ponce de Leon
    RP: Yates, Greene, C.Martinez, Oberg, Bummer, N.Anderson
    IL: Buxton

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    • #17
      I would like to say Ketel Marte but that 0.00 BB/K is ughhhhh-ly.
      Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

      Comment


      • #18
        He has a lower OBP than BA lol
        Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by DJBeasties View Post
          He has a lower OBP than BA lol
          I had a mental block for a minute on how that is possible. Took me a minute to remember sac flies don't count against BA.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
            I had a mental block for a minute on how that is possible. Took me a minute to remember sac flies don't count against BA.
            Ernie Bowman, a middle infielder for the giants, had 125 AB in 1963 with an avg of .184 and an OBP of .180. I believe that's the most AB in a season under this scenario.
            Brian Williams had 85 career ABs and had an avg of .176 and an OBP of .174 (granted he was a pitcher). Miguel Gomez, a 2B for the Giants is the leader for non-pitchers - 48 career ABs, .250 average, .245 OBP

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Ken View Post
              Ernie Bowman, a middle infielder for the giants, had 125 AB in 1963 with an avg of .184 and an OBP of .180. I believe that's the most AB in a season under this scenario.
              Brian Williams had 85 career ABs and had an avg of .176 and an OBP of .174 (granted he was a pitcher). Miguel Gomez, a 2B for the Giants is the leader for non-pitchers - 48 career ABs, .250 average, .245 OBP
              I thought Ray Oyler SS for the Tigers might have come close to this but even him with horrible lifetime BA .175 didn't come close. He was so bad as a hitter that in the 68 WS Tiger's manager started Mickey Stanley CF with something like less than 10 games total at SS. Oyler hit in 215 AB in 68 .135 BA with OBA of .213.

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              • #22
                I'm hesitant to add a breakout player, worried I'll jinx him.

                David Fletcher doesn't get enough love. He should have 2B/3B/OF, and his contact abilities give a high floor, especially in BA leagues. I have him at $7 in AL only.

                So far, he's around .300/.350/.370, and he has 3 BB, 1 K in 42 AB, although 0 HR and 1 SB, 1 CS. For a 24 year old who already posted a .280 BA and sub 15% K rate as a rookie, I like his chances to be a valuable plug. The issue is a lack of HR and SB. Although you could see a handful of HR and maybe 10 SB, the primary benefit right now is the BA and positional flexibility. A handful of SB, and all he needs to increase his value is to see an injury or two to jump into the 1 or 2 slot in the order. 9th isn't helping him now, but he has the skill to jump up the order and significantly increase his value.
                Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Teenwolf View Post
                  I'm hesitant to add a breakout player, worried I'll jinx him.

                  David Fletcher doesn't get enough love. He should have 2B/3B/OF, and his contact abilities give a high floor, especially in BA leagues. I have him at $7 in AL only.

                  So far, he's around .300/.350/.370, and he has 3 BB, 1 K in 42 AB, although 0 HR and 1 SB, 1 CS. For a 24 year old who already posted a .280 BA and sub 15% K rate as a rookie, I like his chances to be a valuable plug. The issue is a lack of HR and SB. Although you could see a handful of HR and maybe 10 SB, the primary benefit right now is the BA and positional flexibility. A handful of SB, and all he needs to increase his value is to see an injury or two to jump into the 1 or 2 slot in the order. 9th isn't helping him now, but he has the skill to jump up the order and significantly increase his value.
                  Speaking of I guy I own in two leagues. It appears Fletcher's defense is good enough for regular use at several positions. I think he is another Luis Urias, more valuable in life than fantasy, but reliable because of that.

                  At the other end of the spectrum, let me throw out Michael Conforto. He's been pretty good, but not this good.

                  J
                  Last edited by onejayhawk; 04-16-2019, 10:20 AM.
                  Ad Astra per Aspera

                  Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

                  GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

                  Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

                  I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post
                    At the other end of the spectrum, let me throw out Michael Conforto. He's been pretty good, but not this good.

                    Hard Hit % is up slightly so there's some optimism that this is real. The BABIP is a little high, I think a .275 BA is more realistic, but there's nothing wrong with that.

                    Conforto has been good in stretches in the past. He just needs to stay healthy.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Niko Goodrum has been impressive early on in his age 27 season. He was a late bloomer in the minors but has seemingly figured out how to apply use his tools. 18% BB and 20% SO rates are promising in a small sample.

                      He hasn't shown his power/speed yet but 20/20 is a realistic projection of 2018 stats to full time action. Batting in the middle of the lineup will help even in Detroit. He's also eligible at all positions except C in most leagues which makes him a useful lineup plugger.

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                      • #26
                        Moncada!!
                        If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                        - Terence McKenna

                        Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                        How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by DMT View Post
                          Moncada!!
                          Yeah, he's a dude.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Ken View Post
                            Yeah, he's a dude.
                            Yeah, he is legit. The pedigree was there. It just took longer than some would like for him to realize his potential.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Moncada is crushing the ball. It's early, but his 94% Med%+Hard% would have led the league last year. He has an elevated babip, but that's expected when you are hitting it that hard.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Joc Pederson isn't "5 HR in 7 days" good but the statcast numbers are pretty encouraging. I don't know how good he can really be when he never hits against lefties (8 ABs, 0 hits this year, and often sits when a lefty starts) but I think we're about to find out. Can he finish with 30-32 HRs in 450 PAs?

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