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15 team mixed, standard 5x5, standard 260, with 17 reserve rounds
Keepers going into the auction:
C Mike Zunino C1
SS Adalberto Mondesi B9
3B Mike Moustakas C1
CI Miguel Andujar B10
OF Yasiel Puig C10
OF Ronald Acuna B15
OF Eddie Rosario C10
P Blake Snell Y11
P Jameson Taillon B17
P Jose Alvarado B1
P Jordan Hicks B2
P Shane Greene Det C1
Total = $88
Need 11 players with $172 to spend
MINORS:
Kyle Tucker
Bo Bichette
Touki Toussaint
There were several top end players available in our auction, and lots of money chasing it. I felt confident in my keeper list, with Acuna and Snell being two of the best keepers in the league given their prices.
We have a lot of good owners in the auction, but one thing I've noticed over the years is that inflation is underestimated by the league. I knew that the best discounts by far would come early. Given a 40-50% inflation rate, I expected Betts, JDM, and Arenado to go >50 with Betts close to 70. The next tier - Baez/Story/Verlander/Story/Altuve/Blackmon I expected to go >$40.
But Verlander was the only real ace on the board, all others were kept. So I factored in another $5-10 and planned for ~$50.
Last year I was successful (won the league) by buying the 2 most expensive players in the auction. But I think that was more a matter of the other players around them, because Kershaw and Altuve actually disappointed.
I strongly considered a Verlander/Betts play, budgetting $120 for the two of them, but I didn't like how that dramatically changed the rest of my roster.
Instead I decided to work from the ground up. And I decided this was the year to take some chances. Normally my auctions are pretty safe, but I wanted to invest in some upside this year. I targetted two guys that I wanted to roster in this league, and I was willing to go well above market to do so.
One target was Chris Paddack, and I don't need to go into detail why, see the Paddack thread. If I get just 100IP from him, I'm okay with that, I love the upside and this is my only keeper league, so if I'm going to try for the long play on Paddack I have to have him rostered here. I wish my auction had been 3 or 4 weeks ago, I would have saved a lot of $.
My second target was Yoan Moncada. This was his first time back into the auction after being taken as a prospect, and at this point some of the luster had worn off due to the strikeouts. At 24 I like the upside and willing to pay for the power speed mix.
I knew I was going to end up overpaying for both guys, but this was a "get the guys you like" play, not a "maximize odds of winning the league" play, and I was fine with that. I've won this league several times and I enjoy the trade talk and the interaction with other owners, I don't have to win every year to have fun.
So I budgetted $15-$20 for each guy, knowing that's probably what I'd need.
Filling in the rest of my roster plan, Betts and Verlander didn't look viable, it would just leave me with too many holes. So I went in with the plan to definitely get a couple top players, but let the value come to me.
First off the board was Kershaw. And I was interested, since this is a keeper league, but I didn't want to ruin the whole plan for an injured pitcher. I was in the bidding up to 23 but it kept going all the way up to 27 and I was out.
Next up was Betts, and I knew this would be an important bid that would determine the rest of my auction. I had him at around $70, and I knew from conversations that another owner (Brad) had him valued there as well. But he told me he did not want him, he wanted to spend on infielders.
The bidding passed 55 and Brad and I were the only ones still going. I went up to 62, and then decided to drop out when he bid 63. He was surprised, he did not actually want to spend 63 on betts since he had no pitching. He had been trying to price enforce me, and I guess it blew up on him. Given, Betts for 63 was not a bad price, but it really did not work for his team. (Immediately after the auction he traded Betts for a $38 DeGrom because he needed an ace so much more than an OFer). 63 was the top price this league has ever paid at auction, so lots of owners were surprised, but I considered it on the cheap side. Brad told me that if I had gone 64 he was out.
Next up Baez went for 48 and Correa went for 25. I was in on both but not a serious bidder.
JDM was thrown next and I knew I'd be a favorite since I had money and I had everyone price a little higher then the market due to a higher inflation expecation. The bidding stopped with me bidding $49 and I was pretty happy. I needed power more than speed and JDM was great for my team.
Two picks later Chris Paddack was thrown out. Darn it, I wanted him to come out later when teams had less money. Bidding slowed down around $11 and I had him but the guy who threw him out bid at the last second. Then when I countered he kept bidding. All the way 20. I said 21 reluctantly and he was out. Not what I wanted to pay, but again, this was a guy I had to have.
A couple picks later and Verlander is throw out. I was in all the way up to $45 and then I dropped. And the bidding kept going up... and up ... and up. I should have remembered that one of our owners is a huge Astros homer. He bid $58 to finally end it.
So no more aces left, I decided I'd reallocate some money back to the hitting side and just go with Snell/Taillon as my main starters. Not going to win me the pitching categories, but it should hopefully keep me middle of the pack.
Altuve went off for $51 (Astros homer bid him up and finally gave in after bidding 50), Story went for 45. I considered Thor but 42 was more than I wanted to pay. Freeman went for 42 and Benitindi for 40, both more than I wanted to pay, along with Bryant for 42. But then I bid 38 on Blackmon and the bidding stopped. I was pretty happy with that price relative to the others that had been paid.
At the break I had purchased just JDM/Blackmon/Paddack and I had the most money left after several more players went off the board. I knew I needed to start spending money before all the good options were gone. I knew Moncada was going to be a buy, and I looked at my roster and the players available and decided the best players left were Wilson Contreras and a group of starters I had all in a similar tier (Happ, Hendricks, ERod, Ray). Happ, Hendricks and Ray went for more than what I wanted although I was the last bidder bidding it up in both cases. I finally won ERod although 18 was more than I wanted to pay. In retrospect I'd rather have Happ or Hendricks for a few bucks more. This was a mistake.
Moncada came up and I knew I'd have to pay up - it ended up 18 which is not great, but I'll take him.
Junis and Woodruff were cheap buys brought up by others and I was down to $8 with MI, 1B, and UT to fill. There was another owner who needed 2B and MI and he had more money than I did, so I started hoarding what I had left for the MI spot. I bought Ryan Zimmerman for a buck just to conserve money (don't love it but I guess I'll take him).
The owner in need of MI threw out Lourdes Gurriel and I didn't love that option but it was worth a few bucks. So I bid it up, until he got to my max and I was out.
I had been planning for Kike Hernandez near the end of the auction so I thew him out and got crickets. So $1 Kike it is!
Finally I had a UT spot and $6 left to spend. I had Gregory Polanco on my board as by far the best player for our league (keepers considered). So I sat on it for a while and waited for him to be nominated. And he never was. When it came back to me, I was the only team with more than $1 that could roster an additional hitter, so I bought Polanco for a buck. 2020 keeper option!
The downside is that I left $5 on the board. On one hand I hate doing that. Bad, bad mistake. On the other hand, I value Kike Hernandez + Polanco much higher than $7 together, so I don't think it was unreasonable to save some money for them, and getting them at $1 each instead is not a bad thing for keeper purposes.
On to the reserves, I had a couple 1st round picks and a couple 2nds. I knew I was light on pitching so I wanted at least one starter out of the top, and I also wanted Jo Adell. I got Carlos Rodon at 1.10 and Adell at 1.15. In the second I picked up Deshields for some bench speed, and Jeffress in case he ends up the closer in MLW. Picked up Blake Parker and Reynaldo Lopez along the way too. When the prices went down to 5, I popped Carter Kieboom, and I got Sean Murphy at the 2 level.
Pretty happy overall with this auction, I came in with a strong roster, I re-inforced the top end with some stars, I got several young players who I really like, and I improved my future roster with some top end prospects as well.
Now I have some work to do. 1B is a big, big area of need, and I definitely need to improve my starting pitchers. I'm sure I'll need to pick up a closer at some point during the year too, but that's always the case (especially when you only spend $4 on them). Already getting some trade offers for Deshields who elicited a big groan in the reserve draft since a lot of owners were wanting him, and I suspect he'll get me a decent starter.
Here's the final roster:
Active:
C MZunino TB (C 1)
C WContreras ChC (A 15)
1B RZimmerman Was (A 1)
2B YMoncada CWS (A 18)
SS AMondesi KC (B 9)
3B MMoustakas Mil (C 1)
OF YPuig Cin (C 10)
OF RAcuna Atl (B 15)
OF ERosario Min (C 10)
OF JDMartinez Bos (A 49)
OF CBlackmon Col (A 38)
UT GPolanco Pit (A 1)
CI MAndujar NYY (B 10)
MI EHernandez LAD (A 1)
P BSnell TB (Y 11)
P JTaillon Pit (B 17)
P ERodriguez Bos (A 18)
P CPaddack SD (A 21)
P BWoodruff Mil (A 2)
P JJunis KC (A 3)
P JAlvarado TB (B 1)
P JHicks StL (B 2)
P SGreene Det (C 1)
Reserves:
OF KTucker Hou (B 15)
SS BBichette Tor (B 15)
P TToussaint Atl (B 5)
P CRodon CWS (A 15)
OF #JAdell LAA (A 15)
UT DDeShields Tex (A 10)
P *JJeffress Mil (A 10)
P RLopez CWS (A 10)
P BParker Min (A 10)
3B #CKieboom Was (A 5)
2B CPinder Oak (A 5)
SS SKingery Phi (A 5)
3B BDrury Tor (A 5)
OF EThames Mil (A 5)
UT HRamirez Cle (A 5)
P *SManaea Oak (A 5)
C #SMurphy Oak (A 2)
Keepers going into the auction:
C Mike Zunino C1
SS Adalberto Mondesi B9
3B Mike Moustakas C1
CI Miguel Andujar B10
OF Yasiel Puig C10
OF Ronald Acuna B15
OF Eddie Rosario C10
P Blake Snell Y11
P Jameson Taillon B17
P Jose Alvarado B1
P Jordan Hicks B2
P Shane Greene Det C1
Total = $88
Need 11 players with $172 to spend
MINORS:
Kyle Tucker
Bo Bichette
Touki Toussaint
There were several top end players available in our auction, and lots of money chasing it. I felt confident in my keeper list, with Acuna and Snell being two of the best keepers in the league given their prices.
We have a lot of good owners in the auction, but one thing I've noticed over the years is that inflation is underestimated by the league. I knew that the best discounts by far would come early. Given a 40-50% inflation rate, I expected Betts, JDM, and Arenado to go >50 with Betts close to 70. The next tier - Baez/Story/Verlander/Story/Altuve/Blackmon I expected to go >$40.
But Verlander was the only real ace on the board, all others were kept. So I factored in another $5-10 and planned for ~$50.
Last year I was successful (won the league) by buying the 2 most expensive players in the auction. But I think that was more a matter of the other players around them, because Kershaw and Altuve actually disappointed.
I strongly considered a Verlander/Betts play, budgetting $120 for the two of them, but I didn't like how that dramatically changed the rest of my roster.
Instead I decided to work from the ground up. And I decided this was the year to take some chances. Normally my auctions are pretty safe, but I wanted to invest in some upside this year. I targetted two guys that I wanted to roster in this league, and I was willing to go well above market to do so.
One target was Chris Paddack, and I don't need to go into detail why, see the Paddack thread. If I get just 100IP from him, I'm okay with that, I love the upside and this is my only keeper league, so if I'm going to try for the long play on Paddack I have to have him rostered here. I wish my auction had been 3 or 4 weeks ago, I would have saved a lot of $.
My second target was Yoan Moncada. This was his first time back into the auction after being taken as a prospect, and at this point some of the luster had worn off due to the strikeouts. At 24 I like the upside and willing to pay for the power speed mix.
I knew I was going to end up overpaying for both guys, but this was a "get the guys you like" play, not a "maximize odds of winning the league" play, and I was fine with that. I've won this league several times and I enjoy the trade talk and the interaction with other owners, I don't have to win every year to have fun.
So I budgetted $15-$20 for each guy, knowing that's probably what I'd need.
Filling in the rest of my roster plan, Betts and Verlander didn't look viable, it would just leave me with too many holes. So I went in with the plan to definitely get a couple top players, but let the value come to me.
First off the board was Kershaw. And I was interested, since this is a keeper league, but I didn't want to ruin the whole plan for an injured pitcher. I was in the bidding up to 23 but it kept going all the way up to 27 and I was out.
Next up was Betts, and I knew this would be an important bid that would determine the rest of my auction. I had him at around $70, and I knew from conversations that another owner (Brad) had him valued there as well. But he told me he did not want him, he wanted to spend on infielders.
The bidding passed 55 and Brad and I were the only ones still going. I went up to 62, and then decided to drop out when he bid 63. He was surprised, he did not actually want to spend 63 on betts since he had no pitching. He had been trying to price enforce me, and I guess it blew up on him. Given, Betts for 63 was not a bad price, but it really did not work for his team. (Immediately after the auction he traded Betts for a $38 DeGrom because he needed an ace so much more than an OFer). 63 was the top price this league has ever paid at auction, so lots of owners were surprised, but I considered it on the cheap side. Brad told me that if I had gone 64 he was out.
Next up Baez went for 48 and Correa went for 25. I was in on both but not a serious bidder.
JDM was thrown next and I knew I'd be a favorite since I had money and I had everyone price a little higher then the market due to a higher inflation expecation. The bidding stopped with me bidding $49 and I was pretty happy. I needed power more than speed and JDM was great for my team.
Two picks later Chris Paddack was thrown out. Darn it, I wanted him to come out later when teams had less money. Bidding slowed down around $11 and I had him but the guy who threw him out bid at the last second. Then when I countered he kept bidding. All the way 20. I said 21 reluctantly and he was out. Not what I wanted to pay, but again, this was a guy I had to have.
A couple picks later and Verlander is throw out. I was in all the way up to $45 and then I dropped. And the bidding kept going up... and up ... and up. I should have remembered that one of our owners is a huge Astros homer. He bid $58 to finally end it.
So no more aces left, I decided I'd reallocate some money back to the hitting side and just go with Snell/Taillon as my main starters. Not going to win me the pitching categories, but it should hopefully keep me middle of the pack.
Altuve went off for $51 (Astros homer bid him up and finally gave in after bidding 50), Story went for 45. I considered Thor but 42 was more than I wanted to pay. Freeman went for 42 and Benitindi for 40, both more than I wanted to pay, along with Bryant for 42. But then I bid 38 on Blackmon and the bidding stopped. I was pretty happy with that price relative to the others that had been paid.
At the break I had purchased just JDM/Blackmon/Paddack and I had the most money left after several more players went off the board. I knew I needed to start spending money before all the good options were gone. I knew Moncada was going to be a buy, and I looked at my roster and the players available and decided the best players left were Wilson Contreras and a group of starters I had all in a similar tier (Happ, Hendricks, ERod, Ray). Happ, Hendricks and Ray went for more than what I wanted although I was the last bidder bidding it up in both cases. I finally won ERod although 18 was more than I wanted to pay. In retrospect I'd rather have Happ or Hendricks for a few bucks more. This was a mistake.
Moncada came up and I knew I'd have to pay up - it ended up 18 which is not great, but I'll take him.
Junis and Woodruff were cheap buys brought up by others and I was down to $8 with MI, 1B, and UT to fill. There was another owner who needed 2B and MI and he had more money than I did, so I started hoarding what I had left for the MI spot. I bought Ryan Zimmerman for a buck just to conserve money (don't love it but I guess I'll take him).
The owner in need of MI threw out Lourdes Gurriel and I didn't love that option but it was worth a few bucks. So I bid it up, until he got to my max and I was out.
I had been planning for Kike Hernandez near the end of the auction so I thew him out and got crickets. So $1 Kike it is!
Finally I had a UT spot and $6 left to spend. I had Gregory Polanco on my board as by far the best player for our league (keepers considered). So I sat on it for a while and waited for him to be nominated. And he never was. When it came back to me, I was the only team with more than $1 that could roster an additional hitter, so I bought Polanco for a buck. 2020 keeper option!
The downside is that I left $5 on the board. On one hand I hate doing that. Bad, bad mistake. On the other hand, I value Kike Hernandez + Polanco much higher than $7 together, so I don't think it was unreasonable to save some money for them, and getting them at $1 each instead is not a bad thing for keeper purposes.
On to the reserves, I had a couple 1st round picks and a couple 2nds. I knew I was light on pitching so I wanted at least one starter out of the top, and I also wanted Jo Adell. I got Carlos Rodon at 1.10 and Adell at 1.15. In the second I picked up Deshields for some bench speed, and Jeffress in case he ends up the closer in MLW. Picked up Blake Parker and Reynaldo Lopez along the way too. When the prices went down to 5, I popped Carter Kieboom, and I got Sean Murphy at the 2 level.
Pretty happy overall with this auction, I came in with a strong roster, I re-inforced the top end with some stars, I got several young players who I really like, and I improved my future roster with some top end prospects as well.
Now I have some work to do. 1B is a big, big area of need, and I definitely need to improve my starting pitchers. I'm sure I'll need to pick up a closer at some point during the year too, but that's always the case (especially when you only spend $4 on them). Already getting some trade offers for Deshields who elicited a big groan in the reserve draft since a lot of owners were wanting him, and I suspect he'll get me a decent starter.
Here's the final roster:
Active:
C MZunino TB (C 1)
C WContreras ChC (A 15)
1B RZimmerman Was (A 1)
2B YMoncada CWS (A 18)
SS AMondesi KC (B 9)
3B MMoustakas Mil (C 1)
OF YPuig Cin (C 10)
OF RAcuna Atl (B 15)
OF ERosario Min (C 10)
OF JDMartinez Bos (A 49)
OF CBlackmon Col (A 38)
UT GPolanco Pit (A 1)
CI MAndujar NYY (B 10)
MI EHernandez LAD (A 1)
P BSnell TB (Y 11)
P JTaillon Pit (B 17)
P ERodriguez Bos (A 18)
P CPaddack SD (A 21)
P BWoodruff Mil (A 2)
P JJunis KC (A 3)
P JAlvarado TB (B 1)
P JHicks StL (B 2)
P SGreene Det (C 1)
Reserves:
OF KTucker Hou (B 15)
SS BBichette Tor (B 15)
P TToussaint Atl (B 5)
P CRodon CWS (A 15)
OF #JAdell LAA (A 15)
UT DDeShields Tex (A 10)
P *JJeffress Mil (A 10)
P RLopez CWS (A 10)
P BParker Min (A 10)
3B #CKieboom Was (A 5)
2B CPinder Oak (A 5)
SS SKingery Phi (A 5)
3B BDrury Tor (A 5)
OF EThames Mil (A 5)
UT HRamirez Cle (A 5)
P *SManaea Oak (A 5)
C #SMurphy Oak (A 2)
- Wonderboy
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