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**Judge Jude** · 03-31-2019, 08:29 PM

ok, here goes, have at it

walked in with 7 players for 94 units
SP Caleb Smith 1-S1
RP Seranthony Dominguez 10-S1
RP Jeremy Jeffress 1-S1-DL
C Jacob Realmuto 13-S1
2SO Ketel Marte 10-O
OF Bryce Harper 41-O
OF Adam Eaton 18-S1

NEED 16 for 166

"Everyone has a plan until they buy their first player" - Anonymous

MAX SCHERZER 44 - Wait, wut? I can't afford him. But he just lingered there, looking so alluring. I was kinda stunned but ok with it. Liked it less later, but not because Max isn't a superstar. NEED 15 for 122

JOEY VOTTO 27 - Not liking the prices - no surprise - and was itching to add a bat at a non-wince price. AVG stud, and with a little power rebound... (not an OBP league, though). NEED 14 for 95

BUSTER POSEY 12 - Umm... I mean, the price is not horrible (see Ramos 15, Mejia 14, Gomes 11, Suzuki 8). But tiny upside, iffy keeper, debatable trade bait - a bad freeze list needs to avoid boring. NEED 13 for 83

COREY DICKERSON 17 - This is better - isn't it? Not so old, some upside, struck me as underpriced. I'm ok. NEED 12 for 66

ANDREW MILLER 14 - Had to Trust The Process (TM) on this one, which had a target of 18. Finishes my bullpen efforts and compare to top closers above or Robertson 14 or Romo 11. NEED 11 for 52

NICK WILLIAMS 2 - Only my 4th OF, and takes over for me when my Harper runs into a wall. His name came up relatively early; not sure what to make of this. NEED 10 for 50

BRANDON BELT 10 - Hey now. A boring vet, but he used to go for 30. He has upside at this price. NEED 9 for 40

So far, so good - maybe.

And then... to be continued soon.....

At this point, I really need a next-tier SP, but there are none to be found. Not only Quintana 22, Lester 18, Archer 18, Maeda 17, Paddack 15, Sonny Gray 15 (!), Arrieta 14, Stripling 12, Woodruff 11 - but this bus is being driven by 4-5 owners with too much money to spend, so I could not have won a bid at these figures. resistance was futile. also can't get high enough up the ladder for a quality MI, so I go for a distraction.

AUSTIN BARNES 8 - Not exactly a bargain, but numbers hint at something, he qualifies at 2B, and he covers me if God forbid my two C studs get hurt. Gotta spend 260 somehow. NEED 8 for 32

TANNER ROARK 8 - Yeah, I know. But this is the auction I chose. If I really really squint.... NEED 7 for 24

JARROD DYSON 8 - Not that good at baseball, but can steal bases so what the heck. Plus - Crazy 8s! NEED 6 for 16

BRANDON CRAWFORD 9 - Another boring Giant vet! yay? It's not that the price is so bad; it's that it really hamstrung me later, especially chasing pitching. Guh. NEED 5 for 7

ERIK GONZALEZ 2 - Should get ABs, might steal 10 bases, and upside. alrighty then. NEED 4 for 5

TODD FRAZIER 2 -Oh dear. I didn't have anyone with 3B eligibility, it was late in the auction and.. I was hacked. Yes, that's right, hacked at an in-person auction. That's my final answer. NEED 3 for 3

JEFF SAMARDZIJA 1 - I had wanted Jose Urena and/or Derek Holland (171 K last year), and only one team could bid 2 against one of my 3 P slots. So I got caught trying mind-reading, and named a more prominent guy who might trigger his Pavlovian bid reflex. It.. did not, and I am left holding the alphabet. Next two players nominated are, of course, Jose Urena and Derek Holland. Dammit. NEED 2 for 2

PABLO LOPEZ 1 - Well, I did want him for a buck, so there's that. NEED 1 for 1

JOHNNY CUETO 1 - 2020 upside? Hey, we're almost 4 hours in, and I just don't see a pitcher I love for a buck. Was this dumb? You can be blunt.

ROSTER
SP Max Scherzer 44
SP Tanner Roark 8
SP Jeff Samardzija 1
SP Caleb Smith 1
SP Pablo Lopez 1
SP Johnny Cueto 1-DL/Robbie Erlin
RP Andrew Miller 14
RP Seranthony Dominguez 10
RP Jeremy Jeffress 1-DL/David Hernandez

C Jacob Realmuto 13
C Buster Posey 12
1B Joey Votto 27
3B Todd Frazier 2-DL/Daniel Descalso
CI Brandon Belt 10
2B Ketel Marte 10
SS Brandon Crawford 9
MI Austin Barnes 8
OF Bryce Harper 41
OF Adam Eaton 18
OF Corey Dickerson 17
OF Jarrod Dyson 8
OF Nick Williams 2
UT Erik Gonzalez 2

Wait, I got Scherzer and Miller and won't that boring offense pile up some stats? only a couple of black holes, which is par for the course.

Trying to talk myself into saying, "There's a chance," even with Max and the Five Dwarfs SP staff.

P.S. I was going to say that I blew it after all by passing on a 5-O AWood. then I just heard he's had a "setback." sometimes a wrong decision turns out just fine....

**Sharky** · 04-01-2019, 08:16 AM

Always love these recaps, JJ. Thanks for posting.

Here are my quick thoughts:

1) Nice to know you’re human too!
2) I see this as a so-so but workable auction for you. On the one hand, I think Scherzer is solid at that price - and you have Realmuto, Harper, Eaton, Marte, etc. as very solid keepers. On the other hand, I don’t like some of the players you chose to spend on (Votto, Dickerson, Posey) are just not guys I like in your situation — or at least it’s too much of the same profile (asymmetric upside/downside and not in your favor). Votto is the one who gives me most pause.
3) I would look to move Votto promptly for a strong reinforcement someplace, like SP, 3B, or Of. Just don’t think he will produce this year. Suggest selling now - not panicking, but banking value before it is eroded.
4) Even if it doesn’t play out this year - and you have a shot - you will have great trade chips.

Good luck!

**Judge Jude** · 04-01-2019, 08:30 AM

thanks, Sharky!
I'm not THAT surprised that HQ projects me for second place, given my reliance on them.
But so does Davenport.

I'll hold and see.

**Teenwolf** · 04-01-2019, 08:44 AM

Fun recap, thanks for all the effort. I did a 12 tm NL only auction, last night, so I can compare pricing.

Buys I like: your pitching looks good. Scherzer is a stabilizer for your SP flyers (I paid $55 last night and $64 in my other NL), and I like P. Lopez and Shark at $1 each. I chased Lopez to $8 when I had $22 left, but I stopped at $8 and lost him. I grabbed Eflin $5 instead. I also targeted Shark, and landed him for $2.

I hate the $14 A. Miller purchase, but I could be proven wrong. It's becoming impossible for young relievers to get closer roles given the effect on arbitration, so Miller could hold off Hicks and Reyes. I like your $1 Jeffress as a possibility to collect a lot of saves, and seranthony could get some too... but that's too much of your budget on MR without any saves guarantee. Maybe I'm missing something, as I haven't looked at Miller too closely.

I like your offensive buys except for $8 Dyson. Too old, no longer worthy of more than very light PT work. Too much of an empty SB guy. I ran into the same problem, trying g yo figure out where to get SB in the NL. Most SB are tied up in the studs. I targeted both M. Taylor $5 and R. Quinn $4 as an alternative to Dyson. I love the other $8-$12 buys. I also grabbed Posey ($13 for me), small price for possible elite production, mine is 2 catcher also. Love Barnes, Crawford, Belt, Posey purchases. Barnes is a nice buy, backup if Posey goes down again, and forces one more backup catcher into someone else's squad.

I don't hate the Votto $27, but don't love it. Dickerson $17 is great, I targeted him but he went too high for me. Eaton needs to stay healthy for you.

Good team, more balance than I managed.

**Gregg** · 04-01-2019, 10:07 AM

Thanks for posting this. I always enjoy reading it.

I had a weird auction as well. Actually it was two weird auctions one AL and one NL. They are 12 teamers with 10 of the same owners over two days. They were almost opposites.

Scherzer was a great buy. With $166 bucks going in you cannot afford to pass on the the best pitcher in baseball. It is one of the main reasons your software shows you in second place.

Love the Belt buy for $10 bucks. Not so much the Posey. With the fantastic Realmuto contract, I would have went the one or two dollar buy on the second catcher and used the Posey money elsewhere. I would try to package Williams and Posey to someone who went with two bad catchers and might have a OF upgrade.

Then again your league is like mine, deep enough that we are all going to have some holes in the lineup.

Good job, good luck.

**scottw** · 04-01-2019, 12:41 PM

ROSTER
SP Max Scherzer 44****************no one better, will still have positive value at this $$--well done.
SP Tanner Roark 8***************a favorite dark horse of mine this year
SP Jeff Samardzija 1***************what could go wrong at a buck? lol
SP Caleb Smith 1************another pre-draft favorite for this year
SP Pablo Lopez 1*********upside
SP Johnny Cueto 1-DL/Robbie Erlin***************down-the-road possible if you can stash him all year
RP Andrew Miller 14************a lot when you don't expect saves
RP Seranthony Dominguez 10***************should earn enough saves to help here
RP Jeremy Jeffress 1-DL/David Hernandez************A flyer at best

C Jacob Realmuto 13**************kid's gonna have a terrific year!
C Buster Posey 12***********catch moonbeams here?
1B Joey Votto 27***************I never sell him short
3B Todd Frazier 2-DL/Daniel Descalso**********I, too, didn't look for him to start on DL, er, IR
CI Brandon Belt 10************nice safe buy! I got him for $12 and am happy with that
2B Ketel Marte 10************meh
SS Brandon Crawford 9**********meh,but you could do worse for $9
MI Austin Barnes 8*********good hedge
OF Bryce Harper 41*********count your dollars here!
OF Adam Eaton 18***********high but probably make a little profit
OF Corey Dickerson 17********same as above
OF Jarrod Dyson 8***********good waiver material
OF Nick Williams 2***********like him but only a pinch hitter until the trade comes
UT Erik Gonzalez 2*********a good flyer

Not an easy win, but with work------------------? Bet you have turned worse into a winner?

**pitbull** · 04-01-2019, 07:27 PM

Your league doesn't have the crazy inflation like the two league I'm in. Scherzer is a great deal. Not so crazy on the rest of your starters but for $1 picks you certainly can have upside. The problem is that those same pitcher could off-set Scherzer numbers. You need Roark and Shark just be average with Smith/Lopez showing improvement. Saves is depended on the cards coming out right. You need a healthy Jeffress assuming the closer role and then hope that Seranthony or Miller gets the closing kids.

Your offense catchers are very good. Corners are weak. Votto, Belt and Frazier are going to struggle to get you 60 HRs and may be closer to 40. You absolutely need Belt to have a career year and coming from an owner that has own him the last 3 season he can frustrate you. Weird on your MI having Barnes there but he could be very productive. Marte and Crawford will give you your money's worth. OF Harper should have a great season, Eaton will be good if he can stay healthy, Dickerson should be solid. Dyson you need him to get you 20 plus SB or you are in big time trouble there. Williams not too many AB and may Gonzalez hit enough and gets 10 SB.

Overall pitching: W could be a struggle as you have 2 Mia pitchers and a Giant whose team have bad offenses. SV Could be very good or just average depending have the closer role. ERA and Whip depend on you get out of Shark, Smith, Lopez and Erlin.

Over hitting: Runs/RBIs should be good. HR after Harper you have players 15-20 range. BA should be strong. SB is weak.

Once you get the feel of this team then that will help on what players to FAAB and trades to make. There are holes on this team but really most 12 teams leagues there are going to be holes. Good luck on your season.

**Judge Jude** · 04-01-2019, 07:49 PM

thanks, pitbull!

Barnes could be a key, as an injury to Posey (likely) or Realmuto (not so much) does not force me to scrape for a .180-hitting catcher.

we can waive up to 6 active players all season, and with a lineup like this I tend to focus most of those moves on SPs. also, it can facilitate trading. if you have 5-unit quality SPs in the 3-4-5-6 slots, then acquiring a 15-unit level SP is less of an upgrade than if you are unloading a Molotov cocktail negative-value SP!

I have also gotten used to balancing W/K vs ERA/Ratio from having Kershaw in some of his peak years.

**ThatRogue** · 04-06-2019, 05:32 AM

Great read, as always! Thank you for continuing to share your auction experience!

I like the Scherzer buy. He provides consistently excellent stats and is such a great margin for error with other pitchers on any staff. I'm a big fan of Smith and Lopez for this season. My "hot take" is that both are going to provide double digit value, this season, and, added to Scherzer, will provide you with an above average pitching staff. I'm not high on Roark and Shark, but, with the other starters, you should be fine. Saves are such a mystery category nowadays, but your RP are as well-positioned to accumulate them, as any non-named closers. You could have ten saves...you could have fifty-plus. It will be an interesting ride!

The catching is more than solid. In a 12-team NL-only league, teams don't typically have a catching tandem that is this good. I've heard some concern that Posey isn't quite right, following his offseason hip surgery, so that is some cause for concern. Perhaps you can deal him for a 3B or OF upgrade, then move Barnes to C and Gonzalez to MI.

I'm torn on Votto. Traditionally, his contributions across the board are extremely valuable. However, my biggest concern is whether last season was a legitimate age-related drop-off, because that power decline was significant. 27 units would have scared me off. If Belt stays healthy all season, and gets back to 2016-2017 contributions, then he'll be solid for you. He did look good this spring, but you can't count on upside, other than playing time (especially in a rather ugly SF lineup), so his value is tied to avoiding injuries. 3B needs an upgrade, but you know that.

I believe Barnes and Marte are poised to have better-than-expected seasons. For Barnes, 2017 looked like the start of something good, and I think he was playing through an injury last season. With Marte, that second half OBP points to the upside many have been expecting. Add the underrated-but-steady Crawford, plus Gonzalez' counting stats and speed upside, and this MI is very nice, especially for that combined price. I really like this combination of keeps and buys.

Harper in Philly is going to be fun to watch. Of course, the bombs he's hit to start the season would be HRs in any ballpark, but still...I think he's going to remind everyone of his MVP season. Eaton is like Belt...his value is tied to his health. If he plays all season, he's a solid 15/15 player, who'll score a boatload of runs and still have some upside. I'm not a fan of the OF buys, but you worked within the budget you had available. Dyson's SB potential is attractive, and Williams might actually benefit from being a 4th OF, and learning behind veterans like McCutchon and Harper. Dickerson's early injury is concerning, as was last season's drop off. At his price, he's the wildcard, because if you could add his 2017 season to Harper and a healthy Eaton, you'd be in phenomenal shape.

All-in-all, it looks like you have a nice steady diet of PT, which should help you accumulate the counting stats needed to compete. I think your season hinges on Posey, Dickerson and the closers-in-waiting...plus the health of Belt and Eaton. (And whatever moves you make, of course.) Perhaps this could be the "one-for-the-second-thumb" season...

**Judge Jude** · 05-01-2019, 09:59 AM

MAY DAY!
Report Card #1

8th place, 54.5 points
3rd in SB, 4th in ERA, 5th in Ratio
11th in HR, RBI, SV

GOOD NEWS
Scherzer has been just a $4 pitcher so far, but peripherals show it's a fluke
Jeff S, CSmith excellent. PLopez ok. Roark spotty but there's a chance
DBacks Dyson and Marte have been stellar, Eaton too

BAD NEWS
Dominguez and Neshek are useless; Jeffress and Miller still rusty
Harper .197 in last 3 weeks
Votto, Posey, Crawford smell like toast
Dickerson out indefinitely; waste of 17 units

staying the course for now
HQ projections have dropped me to 6th (1st in 2020 farm draft)

**Judge Jude** · 07-07-2019, 08:16 PM

ALL-STAR BREAK UPDATE

1st is 107.5
2nd is 93.5
then it gets interesting:
81 to 79.5 to 78 to 71 (me) to 69
(then 5 dumpers)

so with a really bad freeze list (though augmented by adding KMarte 10-O for a draft pick in March), I've clinched top 7 anyway.
7th gets 2nd April farm pick, 6th gets 1st pick, top 5 get money.

HQ now projects me to finish 4th

feeling satisfied, but more to come:

HR 119, T-last. 6 more HR gets me 3.5 more points, and all of these are dumping teams so + 3.5
RBI 441, 9th. 20 more RBI worth 3 pts, but only one is a dumper so say +1
R 532, 3rd. only 3 back of 2nd, but it's a contender
SB 54, 4th. in a scramble of 60-56-56-54-53-48. no dumpers here, alas
AVG .259, 6th. must have hit over .300 in June/July. dumper barely ahead so +1

W 39, 7th. the 6 other contenders are ahead
SV 4, T-last. 19 more SV = 6.5 more pts. am exploring - +0.5
ERA 3.62, 2nd. "race" is 3.59 to 3.62 to 3.78 to 3.94
Ratio 1.167, 1st. then it's 1.198, 1.233, 1.250, 1.289
K 4th, 702. race is 795, 717, 710, 702, 692, 675

CSmith return will get me back to 5 SP, but I have such an ERA/Ratio cushion that I can be more aggressive chasing SP. little to lose and more to gain in W, K. PLopez welcomed back when healthy.

or could chase 2 closers for SV.

re offense: only BCrawford can't fog a mirror

my lame ducks are Harper, KMarte, Bruce, Eaton, and DeJong - if I wanted to hit the "dump" button

**Judge Jude** · 07-07-2019, 08:22 PM

huh, and now this comes in:
an offer of lame duck Kuechel for IL PLopez 1 (and a disposable P, maybe the other Lopez)

originally he wanted CSmith 1 and IL Cueto 1, so he's come down in price!

**Sharky** · 07-07-2019, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post

huh, and now this comes in:
an offer of lame duck Kuechel for IL PLopez 1 (and a disposable P, maybe the other Lopez)

originally he wanted CSmith 1 and IL Cueto 1, so he's come down in price!

Hmm. Given your comments about ERA, WHIP, Ks, Wins, I don’t know that you have much upside there. However, it might allow you to flip Keuchel or one of your other SP if you decide to dump.

**Judge Jude** · 07-07-2019, 09:09 PM

well, I'm not super-sold on Keuchel - but seems like no one else is, either, given the revised offer.
I'm one of only two owners that don't have to fear his ERA or Ratio. he's on a good team, should get some W and keeps me solid in K.

PLopez is under-the-radar intriguing, but for 2020, I love combo of Scherzer 44 + CSmith 1 - maybe even Jeff S 1 or Roark 8 as well.

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