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Thread: Judge Jude's 2019 Anatomy of an Auction

  1. #11
    MAY DAY!
    Report Card #1

    8th place, 54.5 points
    3rd in SB, 4th in ERA, 5th in Ratio
    11th in HR, RBI, SV

    GOOD NEWS
    Scherzer has been just a $4 pitcher so far, but peripherals show it's a fluke
    Jeff S, CSmith excellent. PLopez ok. Roark spotty but there's a chance
    DBacks Dyson and Marte have been stellar, Eaton too

    BAD NEWS
    Dominguez and Neshek are useless; Jeffress and Miller still rusty
    Harper .197 in last 3 weeks
    Votto, Posey, Crawford smell like toast
    Dickerson out indefinitely; waste of 17 units

    staying the course for now
    HQ projections have dropped me to 6th (1st in 2020 farm draft)
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
    RP Stanek 8
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 1O Belt 10, 1O Beaty 10, SS BCrawford 9
    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  2. #12
    ALL-STAR BREAK UPDATE

    1st is 107.5
    2nd is 93.5
    then it gets interesting:
    81 to 79.5 to 78 to 71 (me) to 69
    (then 5 dumpers)

    so with a really bad freeze list (though augmented by adding KMarte 10-O for a draft pick in March), I've clinched top 7 anyway.
    7th gets 2nd April farm pick, 6th gets 1st pick, top 5 get money.

    HQ now projects me to finish 4th

    feeling satisfied, but more to come:

    HR 119, T-last. 6 more HR gets me 3.5 more points, and all of these are dumping teams so + 3.5
    RBI 441, 9th. 20 more RBI worth 3 pts, but only one is a dumper so say +1
    R 532, 3rd. only 3 back of 2nd, but it's a contender
    SB 54, 4th. in a scramble of 60-56-56-54-53-48. no dumpers here, alas
    AVG .259, 6th. must have hit over .300 in June/July. dumper barely ahead so +1

    W 39, 7th. the 6 other contenders are ahead
    SV 4, T-last. 19 more SV = 6.5 more pts. am exploring - +0.5
    ERA 3.62, 2nd. "race" is 3.59 to 3.62 to 3.78 to 3.94
    Ratio 1.167, 1st. then it's 1.198, 1.233, 1.250, 1.289
    K 4th, 702. race is 795, 717, 710, 702, 692, 675

    CSmith return will get me back to 5 SP, but I have such an ERA/Ratio cushion that I can be more aggressive chasing SP. little to lose and more to gain in W, K. PLopez welcomed back when healthy.

    or could chase 2 closers for SV.

    re offense: only BCrawford can't fog a mirror

    my lame ducks are Harper, KMarte, Bruce, Eaton, and DeJong - if I wanted to hit the "dump" button
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
    RP Stanek 8
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 1O Belt 10, 1O Beaty 10, SS BCrawford 9
    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  3. #13
    huh, and now this comes in:
    an offer of lame duck Kuechel for IL PLopez 1 (and a disposable P, maybe the other Lopez)

    originally he wanted CSmith 1 and IL Cueto 1, so he's come down in price!
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
    RP Stanek 8
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 1O Belt 10, 1O Beaty 10, SS BCrawford 9
    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  4. #14
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Sharky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Jude View Post
    huh, and now this comes in:
    an offer of lame duck Kuechel for IL PLopez 1 (and a disposable P, maybe the other Lopez)

    originally he wanted CSmith 1 and IL Cueto 1, so he's come down in price!
    Hmm. Given your comments about ERA, WHIP, Ks, Wins, I don’t know that you have much upside there. However, it might allow you to flip Keuchel or one of your other SP if you decide to dump.

  5. #15
    well, I'm not super-sold on Keuchel - but seems like no one else is, either, given the revised offer.
    I'm one of only two owners that don't have to fear his ERA or Ratio. he's on a good team, should get some W and keeps me solid in K.

    PLopez is under-the-radar intriguing, but for 2020, I love combo of Scherzer 44 + CSmith 1 - maybe even Jeff S 1 or Roark 8 as well.
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
    RP Stanek 8
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 1O Belt 10, 1O Beaty 10, SS BCrawford 9
    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  6. #16
    I did the deal, sending out 29 IP AMiller 14-S2 as well
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
    RP Stanek 8
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 1O Belt 10, 1O Beaty 10, SS BCrawford 9
    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  7. #17
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Sharky's Avatar
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Jude View Post
    I did the deal, sending out 29 IP AMiller 14-S2 as well
    Good! Go get em.

  8. #18
    ok, SPOILER ALERT - I finished 6th (1 point out of the money, just No. 1 farm pick last April), as a final-week collapse kept me from third.

    from March (the first page has the pick by pick, and my thoughts on auction night):

    "I must walk out of Sunday's auction with at least one of Kershaw, Strasburg, or Hendricks. my freeze list is too weak to spend 50 on Scherzer or 40 on Thor, and 6th-best SP is Bumgarner - and Maeda and Arrieta are next after that.

    I expected on either the Kershaw hill (again) or Strasburg hill. half the league has been disappointed by Strasburg, but I've never owned him. they also seem terrified of Kershaw - which makes sense with a great freeze list but if not, dice must be rolled."

    ...............

    Scherzer was named first, and I went to 44 and then.... crickets. hmm. well, it could work, I figured.

    WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED:
    Strasburg went for 30, Kershaw 27, and Hendricks 25.

    what they were worth, at uninflated prices:
    Scherzer 26
    Strasburg 29
    Kershaw 26
    Hendricks 16

    if I had spent 57 on Strasburg and Kershaw instead of 52 on Scherzer and Roark.... (although one team bought both Strasburg AND Kershaw for those prices - and finished 7th! they also paid 31 for Thor). I bid 26 on Kershaw, btw, even after buying Mad Max, and the other owner confirmed to me right after the auction that he was mine if I had bid 28).

    after Scherzer, I bought Votto for 27, Posey 12, CDickerson 17, AMiller 14, NWilliams 2. the only decent pick - CDick - missed half the season with injuries.

    bad freeze list and that's my bid-up to spending 210 units? why didn't I finish last?

    Dyson 8 gave me my SB, Jeff S 1 was a nice profit, and PLopez 1 was flipped for a lame-duck Keuchel.

    I led in ERA and Ratio at the ASB - Roark first half also was fine to go with holdover CSmith 1 - and was doing fine in W and K as well. then the staff got hurt (or traded to the AL), and I nosedived to 7th in ERA and 5th in Ratio as I chased W and K and hoped to get away with it. sorry, Charlie! and had 6 SV all season for 1 point. wasted 10 units keeping Seranthony, oof.

    I scampered to 2nd in R and 3rd in SB and did fine in HR/RBI - thank you, Ketel Marte and Adam Eaton, as well as Harper! but my club dropped from 9 AVG pts to 4 down the stretch - too much DeJong, BCrawford, Bruce, Descalso, ABarnes overall.

    Bonus note: I bid my last 8 FAAB for AL arrivals on Castellanos - who put up .321-16-36-43, BUT FOR ANOTHER TEAM, an also-ran no less, who also bid 8 and won the tiebreaker as the weaker team.

    if the other guy had bid 7, I almost certainly would have finished 3rd in spite of all those other woes.
    #badbeat

    Wait 'til Next Year!
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    horrendous final week dropped me from a shot at 3rd to 6th
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2020 candidates (keep up to 11)
    SP Scherzer 44, Samardzija 1, CSmith 1, Cueto 1, Marquez 10, Eflin 10
    RP Stanek 8
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 1O Belt 10, 1O Beaty 10, SS BCrawford 9
    OF CDickerson 17, O1 Cooper 10, Dyson 8

  9. #19
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Sharky's Avatar
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    Thanks as always for sharing, JJ. Always a fun read. Good luck in 2020!

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