2019: Chris Paddack

[Gregg]

How different is Paddack than Rich Hill? He's never done it at the major league level, sure. But the odds seem good that he'll give you 100-130 strong innings. With realistically no chance of getting more than that.

I am going to find out. I paid $8 for Rich Hill vs the $18 for Paddack in our NL only this weekend.

This allowed me to take a flier on Dallas Keuchel for $8. I lose him if he signs in the AL but will have hit gold if goes NL.

[Ken]

To put some context on Paddack's dominance of the minors (I know, caveats apply based on competition), find the last starting pitcher at A ball or above with a >35% K rate and a <3% walk rate. Paddack struck out 120 last year and walked 8. That's just silly.

Here's some minor league years of current aces as comparison points:

Bumgarner struck out 30% and walked 4%
Kershaw struck out 31% but walked 13%
Scherzer struck out 28% and walked 12%
Verlander struck out 30% and walked 6%

Can anyone find something similar to Paddack's 35/3?

[Judge Jude]

isn't that telling us that he was punching way below his weight class (which seems to be majors)?

also, Paddack has pitched 177 TOTAL IP in his four-year minor league career - including 90 last year.

Padres have a Golden Goose here, it seems. let's hope this fable ends differently!

[The Dane]

Don't get me wrong, I love Paddack and his upside, but his shine isn't so bright as to blind me to the odds of him being worth this year what it cost to get him. If I could have grabbed him cheap and hung onto him, I'd have been pleased, but as it stood, he was far more useful in a draft situation as bait to pull money off the table that will likely be misspent. Frankly, Strahm and Lauer were probably the better value picks out of the SD rotation. Those guys might actually earn more than it cost to get them.

If I've learned anything in fantasy baseball, I've learned this: whatever player is getting all the attention, I go the other way. I throw him out and make sure whoever lands him pays the full-hyped price. If he turns out to be great, at least he went for full cost, which I figured is a wash for me. He wasn't going to be on my team unless he was cheap and he wasn't going cheap, so if he's going to be on someone else's team and be a stud, at least he has a stud's price. If he's less than advertised, it increases my chance to win, because some other owner burned valuable dollars on hype. This isn't necessarily true for prospects in a dynasty league, but for players that are going to cost money in my draft, I'm trying to see where everyone is looking and find value in the ignored places.

[Friarfan]

Absolutely giddy. The Executioner!

https://twitter.com/TheAthleticSD/status/1110972508050616320

[DMT]

I watched him go for $7 in my 12-team mixed but thankfully snagged him in the 6th round of my 16-team keep-forever sim league.

[revo]

He walked 4 in 3 2/3 innings today. He walked 8 in 90 innings all last season.

[Hornsby]

He walked 4 in 3 2/3 innings today. He walked 8 in 90 innings all last season.

Big league hitters are a litttttle bit different than the guys in the minors. Maybe in the minors he was able to get guys to swing at pitches that were 2 inches off the plate, up here, not so much. The book on a guy gets around pretty quickly, and it becomes a game of adjustments. Or maybe he just had a bad day...either way, he's a rookie, and he's going to do rookie things. Even the best have stinkers now and again...

[madducks]

Only 37.2 IP in AA and 0 IP in AAA. So, most of his minor league success has been against guys who will never play in the big leagues. He's a great prospect for sure. But, he may have been rushed up too soon. If he stays up, he may not show any consistency until next season.

[Judge Jude]

17 R (13 ER) in his last 20 IP with 7 HR allowed - but still has paid out $19 for the season in an NL-only per HQ

dynasty league? keep forever

redraft? 2019 innings clock already is ticking

tremendous talent here but

[Sharky]

17 R (13 ER) in his last 20 IP with 7 HR allowed - but still has paid out $19 for the season in an NL-only per HQ

dynasty league? keep forever

redraft? 2019 innings clock already is ticking

tremendous talent here but

So if I’m looking to buy for future, better to wait for his value to drop or pounce now?

[Ken]

So if I’m looking to buy for future, better to wait for his value to drop or pounce now?

Really depends on whats in the head of the guy who owns him now. I'm not selling "low" personally, but maybe someone is.

[Judge Jude]

he should be really good next year, too, but he isn't cheap in most precincts. I'm not even convinced he gets a full green light in 2020.

[DanK]

So if I’m looking to buy for future, better to wait for his value to drop or pounce now?

During this 20IP stretch he has a 20/2 K/BB and one can excuse away 7 dongs against the Dodgers, Yanks, and Phils. But the velo is trending down a bit, about .5mph over his last 4. And just 2 years removed from TJ, the clock is ticking loudly. I would wait. He makes for an nice dump trade piece.

[madducks]

Sent down to high-A. Supposedly to limit his innings.