RJEL auction analysis

[bryanbutler]

Rick
...
...
...
...
the rest of us.

mic drop.

[frae]

Rick
...
...
...
...
the rest of us.

mic drop.

I concur

[mjl]

I mean, sure, but people get hurt all the time.

I did not do anything close to what I was planning, but I managed to hit my (minimal) targets - I figured I'd aim for fourth place in each category other than saves because as long as your team is competitive, the league has so much trading that nobody's team (except maybe Rick's this year I guess) can reasonably hope to hit the winning totals from last year. I overshot by a ways on steals and was a tiny bit short on HR but otherwise happy.

auction strategy tip: when you have one of the largest piles of money left, mid-auction, and there's one or two other people with comparable amounts, if there's a guy you want make sure you don't wait until he's clearly the best player left before you nominate him, because that's when the other rich guys think "if I don't spend my money here there's nothing left" and that's how you end up with a $21 Jackie Bradley Jr.

inflation was about 50% for the top 100 players auctioned. Pretty much everyone I thought I could sneak by went way higher than I expected (Donaldson $28, DSantana $22, Kang $14)

I think with the league structure the way it is, with midweek roster changes, people don't value the bad end of closer committees enough. When your Cody Allens are going for $16 because there are so few closers available, a $2 Wily Peralta is great. He might not ever get to be the unquestioned closer (though Boxberger isn't anything great), but $2 for ten saves is just fine, and you probably have a SP who isn't starting that period to bench.

keepers in bold. 5x5 OBP, 18 team, deep minors, 1 C, 2 UT. 10 major league keepers. We auction off the five reserve players also and have $265 in salary, so keeping Yolmer Sanchez at $1 I figured would be a good bench option if I actually got enough good players to not need him.

C: Cervelli $5 (too much, could have had Gomes $1 at the end, but meh, I wanted the OBP)
1B: YAlonso $5
2B: Dozier $26
3B: Lamb $16
SS: Mondesi $1
MI: Semien $11
CI: YSanchez $1
OF: Trout $25, Pham $15, Piscotty $10, McCutchen $28, Bradley $21
UT: Pillar $5, Schebler $2

bench: Owings $1, TBeckham $2
possibly relevant minors: Tatis, Rengifo

I actually think Owings could turn into Marwin Gonzalez with speed; he's a decent hitter though he was bad last year, KC has basically nobody blocking him anywhere, and he's still only 27. He was one of the few guys I targeted that I got.

SP: Greinke $24, Flaherty $1, Morton $7, Bieber $8, Paxton $31, Borucki $1, Wainwright $1, Manaea $1
RP: Vizcaino $10, Rosenthal $3, Peralta $2, Oh $1

possibly relevant minors: Burnes

I may have gotten too overconfident in my first five SP and I should have tried to get another decent one but I'm happy with where I am for now. If I hadn't gotten in the Bradley mess I would have taken Pineda at $5 or so but that's the only one I felt bad about.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I mean, sure, but people get hurt all the time.

I did not do anything close to what I was planning, but I managed to hit my (minimal) targets - I figured I'd aim for fourth place in each category other than saves because as long as your team is competitive, the league has so much trading that nobody's team (except maybe Rick's this year I guess) can reasonably hope to hit the winning totals from last year. I overshot by a ways on steals and was a tiny bit short on HR but otherwise happy.

auction strategy tip: when you have one of the largest piles of money left, mid-auction, and there's one or two other people with comparable amounts, if there's a guy you want make sure you don't wait until he's clearly the best player left before you nominate him, because that's when the other rich guys think "if I don't spend my money here there's nothing left" and that's how you end up with a $21 Jackie Bradley Jr.

inflation was about 50% for the top 100 players auctioned. Pretty much everyone I thought I could sneak by went way higher than I expected (Donaldson $28, DSantana $22, Kang $14)

I think with the league structure the way it is, with midweek roster changes, people don't value the bad end of closer committees enough. When your Cody Allens are going for $16 because there are so few closers available, a $2 Wily Peralta is great. He might not ever get to be the unquestioned closer (though Boxberger isn't anything great), but $2 for ten saves is just fine, and you probably have a SP who isn't starting that period to bench.

keepers in bold. 5x5 OBP, 18 team, deep minors, 1 C, 2 UT. 10 major league keepers. We auction off the five reserve players also and have $265 in salary, so keeping Yolmer Sanchez at $1 I figured would be a good bench option if I actually got enough good players to not need him.

C: Cervelli $5 (too much, could have had Gomes $1 at the end, but meh, I wanted the OBP)
1B: YAlonso $5
2B: Dozier $26
3B: Lamb $16
SS: Mondesi $1
MI: Semien $11
CI: YSanchez $1
OF: Trout $25, Pham $15, Piscotty $10, McCutchen $28, Bradley $21
UT: Pillar $5, Schebler $2

bench: Owings $1, TBeckham $2
possibly relevant minors: Tatis, Rengifo

I actually think Owings could turn into Marwin Gonzalez with speed; he's a decent hitter though he was bad last year, KC has basically nobody blocking him anywhere, and he's still only 27. He was one of the few guys I targeted that I got.

SP: Greinke $24, Flaherty $1, Morton $7, Bieber $8, Paxton $31, Borucki $1, Wainwright $1, Manaea $1
RP: Vizcaino $10, Rosenthal $3, Peralta $2, Oh $1

possibly relevant minors: Burnes

I may have gotten too overconfident in my first five SP and I should have tried to get another decent one but I'm happy with where I am for now. If I hadn't gotten in the Bradley mess I would have taken Pineda at $5 or so but that's the only one I felt bad about.

I should win pitching pretty easily. I have quite a bit of work to do with my offense, but I have some tradeable assets.

I agree acunamatata might be hard to overcome, but if we can get Ed to crack a joke during the auction... Anything is possible.

[bryanbutler]

I should win pitching pretty easily. I have quite a bit of work to do with my offense, but I have some tradeable assets.

I agree acunamatata might be hard to overcome, but if we can get Ed to crack a joke during the auction... Anything is possible.

I think you and Rick will be close in pitching, but as you say, you have much work to do in hitting...

[Big Tymer]

Rick
...
...
...
...
the rest of us.

mic drop.

We'll see as a lot can happen. Vegas odds would be like even money but no doubt people will be coming after me. My strategy coming in was to buy 2 closers with pretty stable jobs (check) and then spread money around on offense since I already had my studs (see below for roster). However, as we all know the auction is dynamic and strategies need to shift based on opportunities that present themselves. Thus, when Harper came up and his bidding slowed down in the high 40s I jumped in as I personally had him valued north of $60 (inflation was over 50%). If nothing else I was going to price enforce as I typically try and do but instead I ended up winning him at $53. Not expected and caused me to hit the bargain bin for the rest of my offense but getting another high OBP power bat with double digit SBs was worth the trade-off imo.

Last year I struggled with SP a bit (mainly with ratios) so I decided pre-auction to keep Carrasco at $37 since I expected he'd go for around $40 and preferred the certainty of having him to pair with Thor & Clevinger. Thus between his price and my plan to buy 2 closers for around $50 I knew I was spending way over typical budget for Pitching (spent ~$120 of $265). But I'd rather start out the gate with a better staff and then trade as needed vs. hoping an Ace becomes available in an early dump trade. With our ability to change lineups twice per week I also knew I wanted at least 8 SPs and a bunch of MRs.

Here's the crew:
C = Kurt Suzuki $1
1B = Justin Smoak $1
2B = Ozzie Albies $5
SS = Trevor Story $15
3B = Jose Ramirez $12
CI = Mitch Moreland $5
MI = Starlin Castro $7
OF = Mookie Betts $20
OF = Ronald Acuna $6
OF = Andrew Benintendi $6
OF = Bryce Harper $53
OF = Robbie Grossman $1
UT = Kendrys Morales $4
UT = Zack Cozart $2

FARM Notables: Nick Senzel, Kyle Tucker

P = Noah Syndergaard $12
P = Mike Clevinger $6
P = Carlos Carrasco $37
P = Jose Quintana $15
P = Tanner Roark $3
P = Michael Fulmer $2
P = Chris Devenski $4
P = Raisel Iglesias $23
P = Wade Davis $21

Bench = Jared Huges, Taylor Rogers, Diego Castillo, Eric Lauer, CC Sabathia

[Ken]

I knew I was spending way over typical budget for Pitching (spent ~$120 of $265).

I think this is misapplied in keeper leagues. Since you have keepers, the "prices" don't tie out to actual values. In your case, when comparing to an auction I had recently your pitching has $121 of value and your hitting has $268 of value (which also reiterates what is stated above, that you have a monster team). By that ratio you are sitting at 69% hitting 31% pitching - which is pretty close to standard.

[Big Tymer]

Exactly but at least for me I still fall into the trap of budgeting for a 65/35 split or something like that. Kind of need to throw that construct out with keepers but not sure that is always how owners think.

[DMT]

That's also the typical ratio that projection systems use when determining suggested bids.

Rick that is an impressive team, can't believe they let you get Harper early.

[Big Tymer]

Rick that is an impressive team, can't believe they let you get Harper early.

It was an earlier toss and honestly just think I got lucky. Maybe some uncertainty with his injury but he played over the weekend so non-issue for me. Arenado went for $58, Sale for $59, DeGrom $53, Goldschmidt $50, Altuve $49 and Blackmon $49. So in that context Harper went for around the amount that others in the same class did give or take $5.

[Hornsby]

That's also the topical ratio that projection systems use when determining suggested bids.

Rick that is an impressive team, can't believe they let you get Harper early.

It's not like anyone "let" him have a premium player...he simply had the money and outbid the room. I got Altuve for 49 and Machado for 45...I really didn't shoot for either player, but the room stopped bidding.

[The Dane]

Yeah, Rick's team looks great. I've seen great teams go down before, but I'd rather have his than mine at this stage.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with my draft. I think my offense is strong, but I may need more steals. My pitching needs a lot to go right, but it's not terrible, just kinda meh.

The Alabaster Underbellies
Offense: I had 9/10 keepers here, so in the draft, I was only filling holes. I have Christian Stewart in my minors ready to play everyday, so I targeted Cespedes, so I could put him on the DL and I could bring Stewart up and not lose anyone. I was willing to go higher on Cespedes, so I'm glad I got him for only $6. I think I'm pretty set for power, and OBP should be okay with enough stars to offset the drains. SBs are going to be more troublesome. I also tried to target guys for whom I already have their possible minor league usurper, so I focused on Donaldson (I have Austin Riley) and Zobrist (I have Zack Short, who I think will get a long look this year). Those are really my only minor leaguers that may see time in MLB this year. I was very pleased to grab McMahon late, and for only $7. A couple of weeks in, I should have a good deal of roster flexibility. I actually like my offense.
C- Tyler Flowers 2
1B- Freddie Freeman 44
2B- Joe Panik 1
3B- Josh Donaldson 28
SS- Paul DeJong 1
CI- Ryan O'Hearn 1
MI- Kolten Wong 7
OF- Cody Bellinger 5
OF- Enrique Hernandez 1
OF- Leonys Martin 6
OF- Jose Martinez 1
OF- Ben Zobrist 5
UT- Khris Davis 35
UT- Wilmer Flores 4

BENCH- Yoenis Cespedes 6
BENCH- Ryan McMahon 7

Pitching: I was mostly starting from scratch here and I was trying to get some strong SPs, and pass on expensive saves. I think I spent too much early and could have waited and got a similar top-three for a little less, but they're okay, and could be a little better than okay if health cooperates. The relievers I have now should generate enough saves to keep me out of the cellar in that category, and that's about it. I'll probably need to acquire more as the season progresses. Strikeouts will be an issue if my injury-prone SPs take too much time off. Ratios will be solid, but not top-tier.
P- Clayton Kershaw 29
P- Madison Bumgarner 26
P- Chris Archer 27
P- Michael Wacha 8
P- Jeff Samardzija 4
P- Tyler Anderson 3
P- Anthony DeScafani 3
P- Steve Cishek 3
P- Jordan Hicks 1

BENCH- Sergio Romo 4
BENCH- Hector Neris 1
BENCH- Jimmy Sherfy 1

Overall, I overpaid on a few guys, but they were high-end players and not mid-round quasi-scrubs or back-end filler. In a league as competitive as this, everyone is stuck overpaying for someone at least once or twice. I just try to make sure it's on a guy I really want and not someone I have to have because he's the last good guy at a position. My worst overpay was Chris Archer, who I really wanted anyway, but I should have let him go at $26. I'm not expecting to compete this year and wanted to have trade bait, so my most expensive buy was $29, and I didn't extend anyone, so I have tons of players that should have appeal for contenders trying to stay under the cap.

[TranaGreg]

I'll throw mine up here. My approach this year was to stay away from anyone over $30, and in that regard I succeeded. Whether or not that was a good approach, well, that's another question (last year I was all in on stars & scrubs).

All Your Base

C - A Barnes 2
1B - C Santana 26
2B - J Villar 16
SS - K Marte 5
3B - J Candelario 3
MI - A Frazier 3
CI - E Hosmer 22
OF - J Upton 27
OF - D Peralta 7
OF - S Choo 15
OF - J Soler 11
OF - C Mullins 3
UT - J Bour 15
UT - M Cabrera 17

R - N Walker 2
R -

SP - C Kluber 37
SP - T Bauer 9
SP - M Mikolas 5
SP - L Weaver 7
SP - M Pineda 4
SP - J Junis 3
RP - J Alvarado 1
RP - J LeClerc 18

bench - V Velasquez 2
J Vargas 1
D Duffy 1 (IL)
K Zimmer 1
N Karns 1

Overall it's okay. On offense I have some risk with guys like Miggy & Bour, and I might have an issue with SBs, esp if the 2017 version of Villar shows up. I have a bunch of guys who'll end up hitting .260 but many are strong OBP guys so I'm hoping I can be middle of the pack there. I like my pitching - might need another source of saves as there are a bunch of teams with 2 closers, but it should be decent enough.

[TranaGreg]

... I knew I was spending way over typical budget for Pitching (spent ~$120 of $265).

I was impressed that you stayed out of the Sale-DeGrom frenzy; in your situation I would have been tempted.

[Ken]

I like my pitching - might need another source of saves as there are a bunch of teams with 2 closers, but it should be decent enough.

I like your pitching a lot.
On the hitting side, I wonder if you wouldnt have been better off going for one of the bigger bats. I understand spreading out your $s but when $11 goes to Jorge Soler I'm not sure spreading it out actually helped.
I think I'd like your offense a lot more with one of the big bats and switching a few of your $10-$20 players to $1-$5 guys who actually look very similar.