Auction Strategy Discussion

[cavebird]

Great post Dane. I like #'s 1 and 2, although I think I might fall off the cliff at the end of #2 (not going crazy). I really need to avoid that this year. Winning is fun, too, and my keeper list screams at me that I need to get it a title one of these years before it all goes to crap.

[cool hand]

#4 is an underrated skill that I never hear anyone talk about. Specifically, knowing where the 'draftable' lines are.
Nice work.

[cavebird]

#4 is an underrated skill that I never hear anyone talk about. Specifically, knowing where the 'draftable' lines are.
Nice work.

It is a good one. I usually sort that out quickly (with my program it isn't difficult)---the cut line is what I call it.

[cool hand]

It is a good one. I usually sort that out quickly (with my program it isn't difficult)---the cut line is what I call it.

The beauty of it is, if you're patient - there will ALWAYS be players taken below that line. Which means, you'll be getting players above that line for minimum price.

[The Dane]

The beauty of it is, if you're patient - there will ALWAYS be players taken below that line. Which means, you'll be getting players above that line for minimum price.

Exactly.

[Ken]

It is a good one. I usually sort that out quickly (with my program it isn't difficult)---the cut line is what I call it.

I have my own custom software that does the same, but the beauty of it is not being able to see who the 18th SS is, the utility is realizing that the 21st SS is the same as the 15th, and that's something that's more of an art than a science actually.

I mix objective number analysis with some personal preference based on experience and gut feel, and I think that's what provides the edge.

[The Dane]

I have my own custom software that does the same, but the beauty of it is not being able to see who the 18th SS is, the utility is realizing that the 21st SS is the same as the 15th, and that's something that's more of an art than a science actually.

I mix objective number analysis with some personal preference based on experience and gut feel, and I think that's what provides the edge.

Yes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.

In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.

Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.

[cavebird]

I have my own custom software that does the same, but the beauty of it is not being able to see who the 18th SS is, the utility is realizing that the 21st SS is the same as the 15th, and that's something that's more of an art than a science actually.

I mix objective number analysis with some personal preference based on experience and gut feel, and I think that's what provides the edge.

Oh, I definitely agree. And yes, the others are right, too---many below the cut line are drafted in the auction, mostly kids, upside guys, and old guys with names. But the problem is that the deals are always random and don't always fit your team---whether by stats (i.e. you don't need steals) or by position (i.e. you cannot actually legally bid on them).

I just believe that getting value, while good, is not the only thing important at the auction---you need the right type of value. You cannot guarantee that, you have to play it by ear at the auction, which really sucks when trying to prep for it and make sure you have a great auction---you just can't do that. Too many variables; sometimes, everyone who fits your team perfectly go at a discount; sometimes it is everyone who doesn't.

[cavebird]

Yes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.

In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.

Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.

I think that depends on the depth of the league. A 12-team only league will place more importance on jobs than a 16-team mixed, which isn't shallow, but both sides of the cut line have jobs, to some extent.

[Judge Jude]

Yes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.

In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.

Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.

this. there are a finite number of SPs to bid for. that weak tier you note - you can spend the extra $ on offense instead and have a puncher's chance with your "consolation buys." even moreso if your in-season moves are unlimited (which would make me enjoy the process less, because it's not supposed to be easy. fun yes but easy no).

[TranaGreg]

great discussion; just an observation - I find that having two UT spots & a deep reserve list kind of messes with that idea of drawing the line at each position; I used to do that in my old league but have gotten scooped by teams with UT spots open & able to bid on anyone.

the east coast bias bit was an interesting read. I certainly get it, but with the depth of knowledge in deep leagues like rjel I don't find that it really matters much - but hey, I'm relatively close to the east coast.

and over the years I've been able to disassociate my enjoyment from watching my hometown team from my fantasy teams; I now kind of let the game play itself out & just enjoy it ... but it definitely took a while to get to that, I used to be really invested when I had a pitcher starting against the Jays.

[Fresno Bob]

Yes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.

In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.

Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.

hey, Erlin was an s1/10 that I picked up for Taijuan Walker!

[bryanbutler]

the east coast bias bit was an interesting read. I certainly get it, but with the depth of knowledge in deep leagues like rjel I don't find that it really matters much - but hey, I'm relatively close to the east coast.

I don't find it an east coast bias, I find it a *northeast* bias. Particularly, I find there is definitely a NY tax in RJEL - both Mets and Yankees. I typically avoid them (well, I hate the Yankees anyway, so avoid them unless they're such great bargains that I can't!). Nobody cares about Rays or Marlins or Braves as much, but NY, Philly/Pit, and Boston for sure, and especially NY. Not so much Baltimore or DC though, it seems. I don't have the numbers in front of me over the years, but I've always felt it was true, and as they came up again this year it was pretty clear to me.

[The Dane]

I don't find it an east coast bias, I find it a *northeast* bias. Particularly, I find there is definitely a NY tax in RJEL - both Mets and Yankees. I typically avoid them (well, I hate the Yankees anyway, so avoid them unless they're such great bargains that I can't!). Nobody cares about Rays or Marlins or Braves as much, but NY, Philly/Pit, and Boston for sure, and especially NY. Not so much Baltimore or DC though, it seems. I don't have the numbers in front of me over the years, but I've always felt it was true, and as they came up again this year it was pretty clear to me.

This may be. I think the most dramatic effect, however, occurs not between smaller regions as you describe, but between time zones and the availability of media. We see the same things here. Giants and Dodgers get way more attention than As and Angels and Padres.

Put it this way: living in the PT, I see the results, highlights, and boxscores for every game before I go to bed, just about every night of the season. The last game ends about 10pm. We see all the games as one slate. East coasters can't realistically stay up until 1pm to catch the late games, so they're always catching up.

Of course, this issue is mitigated by a broad level of research, like many of the people here and in RJEL. They're all knowledgable and so the effect is lessened, but it's still there.

[SlideRule]

At least in my league the only bias there is, if any, is towards the "young, up-and-coming" players as compared to the boring veterans. The inflated prices seem to always be focused on these types of players while the later-auction bargains are mostly the old boring guys that nobody is super excited about. So if you are savvy and can pick the boring veterans who aren't about to fall off a cliff, you can make some good value in that category of players. That said, there's definitely some risk in these types of players, and the ceilings tend not to be very high, so...