Great post Dane. I like #'s 1 and 2, although I think I might fall off the cliff at the end of #2 (not going crazy). I really need to avoid that this year. Winning is fun, too, and my keeper list screams at me that I need to get it a title one of these years before it all goes to crap.
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Auction Strategy Discussion
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#4 is an underrated skill that I never hear anyone talk about. Specifically, knowing where the 'draftable' lines are.
Nice work.One league, 28 years, 9 championships. AL 4X4
Current Lineup:
Ohoppe 2 Jeffers 5 JRamirez 39 Vaughn 16 WFranco 15 Semien 26 Lowe 5 Rengifo 6 R Lewis 10 Alvarez 39 Carpenter 10 P Lopez 6 G Rodriguez 5 Ragans 5 Holmes 10 JDuran 10
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Originally posted by cool hand View Post#4 is an underrated skill that I never hear anyone talk about. Specifically, knowing where the 'draftable' lines are.
Nice work.
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Originally posted by cavebird View PostIt is a good one. I usually sort that out quickly (with my program it isn't difficult)---the cut line is what I call it.One league, 28 years, 9 championships. AL 4X4
Current Lineup:
Ohoppe 2 Jeffers 5 JRamirez 39 Vaughn 16 WFranco 15 Semien 26 Lowe 5 Rengifo 6 R Lewis 10 Alvarez 39 Carpenter 10 P Lopez 6 G Rodriguez 5 Ragans 5 Holmes 10 JDuran 10
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Originally posted by cavebird View PostIt is a good one. I usually sort that out quickly (with my program it isn't difficult)---the cut line is what I call it.
I mix objective number analysis with some personal preference based on experience and gut feel, and I think that's what provides the edge.
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Originally posted by Ken View PostI have my own custom software that does the same, but the beauty of it is not being able to see who the 18th SS is, the utility is realizing that the 21st SS is the same as the 15th, and that's something that's more of an art than a science actually.
I mix objective number analysis with some personal preference based on experience and gut feel, and I think that's what provides the edge.
In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.
Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.
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Originally posted by Ken View PostI have my own custom software that does the same, but the beauty of it is not being able to see who the 18th SS is, the utility is realizing that the 21st SS is the same as the 15th, and that's something that's more of an art than a science actually.
I mix objective number analysis with some personal preference based on experience and gut feel, and I think that's what provides the edge.
I just believe that getting value, while good, is not the only thing important at the auction---you need the right type of value. You cannot guarantee that, you have to play it by ear at the auction, which really sucks when trying to prep for it and make sure you have a great auction---you just can't do that. Too many variables; sometimes, everyone who fits your team perfectly go at a discount; sometimes it is everyone who doesn't.
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Originally posted by The Dane View PostYes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.
In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.
Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.
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Originally posted by The Dane View PostYes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.
In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.
Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1
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great discussion; just an observation - I find that having two UT spots & a deep reserve list kind of messes with that idea of drawing the line at each position; I used to do that in my old league but have gotten scooped by teams with UT spots open & able to bid on anyone.
the east coast bias bit was an interesting read. I certainly get it, but with the depth of knowledge in deep leagues like rjel I don't find that it really matters much - but hey, I'm relatively close to the east coast.
and over the years I've been able to disassociate my enjoyment from watching my hometown team from my fantasy teams; I now kind of let the game play itself out & just enjoy it ... but it definitely took a while to get to that, I used to be really invested when I had a pitcher starting against the Jays.It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
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Originally posted by The Dane View PostYes. The bottom half of most position lists are pretty much the same.
In one NL-only draft I already had, below the line on my SP list were Toussaint, Weaver, DeSclafani, Williams, Freddy Peralta, Richards, not to mention some minor leaguers still in camp (thus available) like Kyle Wright. I figured I could have any one of them for $1. Just above the line was Teheran, Erlin, Gausman, and Soroka. They went for $7, $10, $14 and $7. Not to me.
Knowing this, I feel, is the most important element to an auction."You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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Originally posted by TranaGreg View Post
the east coast bias bit was an interesting read. I certainly get it, but with the depth of knowledge in deep leagues like rjel I don't find that it really matters much - but hey, I'm relatively close to the east coast."Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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Originally posted by bryanbutler View PostI don't find it an east coast bias, I find it a *northeast* bias. Particularly, I find there is definitely a NY tax in RJEL - both Mets and Yankees. I typically avoid them (well, I hate the Yankees anyway, so avoid them unless they're such great bargains that I can't!). Nobody cares about Rays or Marlins or Braves as much, but NY, Philly/Pit, and Boston for sure, and especially NY. Not so much Baltimore or DC though, it seems. I don't have the numbers in front of me over the years, but I've always felt it was true, and as they came up again this year it was pretty clear to me.
Put it this way: living in the PT, I see the results, highlights, and boxscores for every game before I go to bed, just about every night of the season. The last game ends about 10pm. We see all the games as one slate. East coasters can't realistically stay up until 1pm to catch the late games, so they're always catching up.
Of course, this issue is mitigated by a broad level of research, like many of the people here and in RJEL. They're all knowledgable and so the effect is lessened, but it's still there.
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At least in my league the only bias there is, if any, is towards the "young, up-and-coming" players as compared to the boring veterans. The inflated prices seem to always be focused on these types of players while the later-auction bargains are mostly the old boring guys that nobody is super excited about. So if you are savvy and can pick the boring veterans who aren't about to fall off a cliff, you can make some good value in that category of players. That said, there's definitely some risk in these types of players, and the ceilings tend not to be very high, so...
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