MSGL Deep Dive

[frae]

12 team AL Only Auction. We have been a keeper league for about 17 years? This was day 2 of a 3 day auction marathon for a few of us. Today we do RJEL around noon est. Anyway, we have been standard 5x5 but this year moved to holds plus saves instead of straight saves. We are also using 2 catchers this year, but will move to 1 catcher in 2020. Let's see how that goes.

So let's get my keepers out of the way first. I am all in on win now with this crew. It is my last year with Mike Trout and while I have found my way into the money a few times I have not won a title. I am wasting away all the good years of Mike Trout, god I'm the Angels of fantasy baseball. Ok here is what I have..

C Gary Sanchez $10
2B Y Moncada $5
3B R Devers $5
OF Trout $25
OF Betts $20
OF G Springer $15

P T Glasnow $14
P C McHugh $6
P K Gibson $3
P C Green $2

I also choose to take a penalty on a $10 guaranteed contract on Greg Bird (not my best trade last year). So I lost $5 to throw him back. So with the penalty I had spent $110 dollars and had $150 for my normal roster but we also buy our rsvs so I had $155 total. Obviously I was in a really good spot with my offense and just needed to buy some counting stats. I was almost at my target for steals with just my keepers. Pitching, was where things would get interesting. There were 3 clear aces that were available at the auction and then a huge cliff. Since I had all that savings in hitting I was going to buy one of Verlander/Kluber/Carrasco. I also decided to not buy the closers because they would go for little more and I was going to chase the best K setup guys.

I wanted the most boring hitters in the world. Guys who are vets who have fairly predictable stats. So I knew I wasn't getting anyone elite and just looked at guys I calculated at $25 inflation value or lower. I took 4 years worth of standings and averaged out what it took to finish top 3 in every category and made that my target. With pitching that is harder for my auction software to get an accurate read because we are a daily moves league. We don't do faab daily, but after faab runs once a week you can move guys you have on your team in and out of your lineup daily. So pitching stats get boosted up from just your starting lineup since you can get a lot more starts or you can get relief pitchers in on days your starters aren't.

The Budget Plan

Hitting
20
15
10
9
6
5
4
1

Pitching

55
15
9
1

$5 for 5 rsvs

First player out was Altuve who went for $60. Next player out is Verlander. So I own Kluber in Pony and decided if I can diversify here and get Verlander I wanted to. I was willing to go to $55 the inflation calculator had him at $52. Rick (Big Tymers) and I were the last two bidding when he went to $52 I decided to stick to what I had planned and hit $53. He let me have him and I was now done with big buys for the day. I had the next toss and put Kluber right out there. Rick got Kluber for $52 so the market had been set. Not long after Carrasco went for $50, so overall I got my guy and at a price I was comfortable paying.

Now we just enter the time of the draft where I sit and watch. Pitchers weren't sneaking through near the $15 range I was hoping for. Porcello went for $32, Kikuchi for $24, E-Rod $29, and Osuna as the best closer type went for $21. I sat tight and watched that knowing I was going to pay full price for any pitcher I actually liked as a MR or my 5th SP.

On the hitting end of course prices were high. Some names that went early...

K Davis $50
Stanton $53
D Gordon $40
Castelanos $40
N Cruz $39
Jackie Bradley $37
EE $36
J Upton $36
J Abreu $36
D Santana $35
B Hamilton $34
E Andrus $33
J Schoop $32
Y Gurriel $31
C Santana $30 ( i hoped to get him for $25)
R Grichuk $30

Ok that covers all the hitters over $30. I wasn't in on any of them seriously. Some of those guys went a little under the inflation values I had (Stanton, Abreu, and Casty) and some went over (Hamilton, Gordon, Schoop). I knew going in I wouldn't be able to buy any of them and make my budget work so I had a whisky and watched the money go.

So in a holds leave I love Ryan Pressly. When I missed the closers I wanted I decided I want the awesome K's and ratios of Pressly and while my software had him worth $13 with holds plus saves I had said I'll go to $15 since I had a $15 slot in my budget. Well my league made me pay full price, but I got my guy Pressly for $15.

So who was my first big hitter buy you might be asking? DJ LeMahieu! Ok so it isn't very exciting, but I got him for $13 and I had him closer to 19 with inflation. He filled a role as I was missing out on all my SS targets (Semien $25, A Cabrera $27) so I figured I'll get a guy I like at MI and SS will be a mess later. DJ can help my BA more and let me chase crappy BA guys later. He also slot in as my $15 hitter and saved me some money to move my $10 slot up to $12.

So this was the sweet spot of the auction for me. Kipnis came out not long after DJ and while I was full at MI I had a UT and getting undervalued guys was my goal. I had Kipnis worth $17 and I got him for $10. Nothing exciting but again when he is healthy he plays and AB's are gold in an AL Only. He slots in at my $10 slot for now. Move $2 to the $9 guy for now.

Kole Calhoun is my next buy. Again super dull, but plays when healthy. Had him around $17 and got him for $14. For me it was just about making sure I got value from my hitters. At this point I decided let's make Calhoun my $20 and add $6 more to the $11 slot so I have $17 for one more real solid hitter.

My next buy is another boring vet, Yonder Alonso for $15. I had him worth $20 and I needed a 1B. So bump that $2 extra dollars down and divide it among the bottom hitters or add it to my $10 pitcher.

So I have mentioned how crazy pitching prices were. I wanted another starter to go with my current crew and Matt Boyd was someone that I have been on this spring. I wound up paying $14 for him. It was more than the $12 I had left for that slot, but I didn't love my other options after him.

At this point I like or at the very least feel comfortable with what I have done. I sat for a while after the Boyd buy and was trying to find a holds guy I wanted next. I had decided Devenski was the guy I liked the most. I had him worth $8 and a $5 slot. I knew I wasn't getting him for $5 and when I threw him out I had said I'll go $7. I got caught up in the moment and went to $9 and got him. He is on a team that will win a lot and he can throw a lot of innings so I don't hate it but it did mess with my budget as I had to move things around and was now really out of money.

So let's fly through the $2 and $1 guys I finished with. Got my 2nd catcher in Maldanado for $2. Then another possible holds guy in Chaz Roe for $2. Finally got my SS in Alcides Escobar for a $1. If he is the UT guy he will get some counting stats, yuck. Nicky Delmonico is my 5th OF for $1, if he is ok from this concussion maybe he has a role. Matt Davidson is a $1 CI hopefully he makes the team in TX.

I used all 5 rsv slots to take $1 pitchers and hope a few are useful or I'll be shopping in FAAB.

Brett Anderson $1
Nate Karns $1
Addison Reed $1
Jorge Lopez $1
Roeins Elias $1

Target wise I hit all my hitting targets but RBI I came up 9 short. Pitching wise I hit my ERA and WHIP target. I'm down 177 K's but again that doesn't let me count how I can stream in pitchers so I think I am closer, I also think my WHIP and ERA goes up some using the same logic but I am well under both so I think I'll be ok. Wins I am short by 20 but maybe that is more like 10 with my bench. SV+H I guessed and made the number 100 and I have 93 so I am close I guess.

Final Roster...

C Sanchez $10
C Maldanado $2
1B Alonso $15
2b Moncada $5
3B Devers $5
SS A Escobar $1
CI M Davidson $1
MI LeMahiue $13
OF Trout $25
OF Betts $20
OF Springer $15
OF Calhoun $14
OF Delmonico $1
UT Kipnis $10

P Verlander $53
P T Glasnow $14
P M Boyd $14
P C McHugh $6
P K Gibson $3
P R Pressly $15
P C Devenski $9
P C Green $2
P C Roe $2

RSV

Brett Anderson $1
Nate Karns $1
Addison Reed $1
Jorge Lopez $1
Roeins Elias $1

Overall I got my ace, I got boring hitters and filled most of my slots without too many holes. This was not a sexy auction but I came in with a good keeper list and just tried not to screw it up.

Thanks for reading another novel, hope these are fun for you guys.

[frae]

All Auction Buys by team...

POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Max Stassi C | HOU 2 C,DH
1B Edwin Encarnacion DH | SEA 36 1B,CI,DH
3B Zack Cozart 3B | LAA 8 3B,CI,DH,MI
MI Marcus Semien SS | OAK 25 DH,MI,SS
CI Albert Pujols 1B | LAA 12 1B,CI,DH
OF Brett Gardner LF | NYY 18 DH,OF
OF Tony Kemp LF | HOU 5 DH,OF
DH Brock Holt 2B | BOS 1 2B,DH,MI,SS
P Corey Kluber SP | CLE 52 P
P Brad Boxberger RP | KC 11 P
P Mike Fiers SP | OAK 14 P
P Hector Rondon RP | HOU 5 P
P CC Sabathia SP | NYY 5 P
RES Jace Fry RP | CHW 2 P
RES Felix Pena SP | LAA 2 P
RES Robbie Grossman RF | OAK 2 DH,OF
RES Daniel Mengden SP | OAK 1 P
RES Will Harris RP | HOU 2 P
SHALER SLUGGERS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Austin Wynns C | BAL 1 C,DH
C Austin Romine C | NYY 1 C,DH
1B Miguel Cabrera 1B | DET 27 1B,CI,DH
3B Yolmer Sanchez 3B | CHW 7 3B,CI,DH
SS Didi Gregorius SS | NYY 18 DH,MI,SS
MI Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 4 DH,MI,SS
CI Lucas Duda 1B | MIN 1 1B,CI,DH
OF Justin Upton LF | LAA 36 DH,OF
OF Nicholas Castellanos RF | DET 40 DH,OF
OF Domingo Santana RF | SEA 35 DH,OF
OF Chris Owings RF | KC 5 DH,OF
DH Jake Cave CF | MIN 3 DH,OF
P Wade Miley SP | HOU 14 P
P Sean Manaea SP | OAK 5 P
P Adalberto Mejia SP | MIN 1 P
RES Nick Martini LF | OAK 1 DH,OF
RES Justin Anderson RP | LAA 1 P
RES Myles Straw RF | HOU 1 DH,OF
RES Max Moroff 2B | CLE 1 2B,DH,MI
RES Roberto Perez C | CLE 1 C,DH
THE ELUSIVE SPLEEN!
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Chance Sisco C | BAL 4 C,DH
CI Carlos Santana 1B | CLE 30 1B,CI,DH
OF Kevin Pillar CF | TOR 20 DH,OF
OF Jay Bruce RF | SEA 15 1B,CI,DH,OF
OF Willie Calhoun LF | TEX 9 DH,OF
DH Mark Canha CF | OAK 1 DH,OF
P Yusei Kikuchi SP | SEA 24 P
P Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 14 P
P Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK 5 P
P Nate Jones RP | CHW 2 P
P Drew Smyly SP | TEX 6 P
P Ryan Tepera RP | TOR 3 P
P Lucas Giolito SP | CHW 2 P
RES Victor Reyes LF | DET 1 DH,OF
RES Tyler Austin 1B | MIN 2 1B,CI,DH
RES Anthony Swarzak RP | SEA 1 P
RES Tyson Ross SP | DET 1 P
RES Jordan Luplow LF | CLE 1 DH,OF
CHIN MUSIC
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Nick Hundley C | OAK 1 C,DH
3B Taylor Ward 3B | LAA 5 3B,CI,DH
CI Justin Bour 1B | LAA 14 1B,CI,DH
OF Dee Gordon 2B | SEA 40 2B,DH,MI,OF
OF Josh Reddick RF | HOU 16 DH,OF
OF Brett Phillips CF | KC 2 DH,OF
DH Nelson Cruz DH | MIN 39 DH
P Tyler Skaggs SP | LAA 19 P
P Hunter Strickland RP | SEA 12 P
P Brad Keller RP | KC 13 P
P Mike Leake SP | SEA 5 P
P Ivan Nova SP | CHW 3 P
P Frankie Montas SP | OAK 2 P
RES Greg Bird 1B | NYY 2 1B,CI,DH
RES Ian Kennedy SP | KC 1 P
RES Jorge Bonifacio RF | KC 1 DH,OF
RES Devon Travis 2B | TOR 1 2B,DH,MI
RES Ryan Buchter RP | OAK 1 P
TROUT WARS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Martin Maldonado C | KC 2 C,DH
1B Yonder Alonso 1B | CHW 15 1B,CI,DH
SS Alcides Escobar SS | BAL 1 3B,CI,DH,MI,SS
MI DJ LeMahieu 2B | NYY 13 2B,DH,MI
CI Matt Davidson DH | TEX 1 1B,CI,DH
OF Kole Calhoun RF | LAA 14 DH,OF
OF Nicky Delmonico LF | CHW 1 DH,OF
DH Jason Kipnis 2B | CLE 10 2B,DH,MI
P Justin Verlander SP | HOU 53 P
P Ryan Pressly RP | HOU 15 P
P Matthew Boyd SP | DET 14 P
P Chris Devenski RP | HOU 9 P
P Chaz Roe RP | TB 2 P
RES Addison Reed RP | MIN 1 P
RES Nate Karns SP | BAL 1 P
RES Roenis Elias RP | SEA 1 P
RES Brett Anderson SP | OAK 1 P
RES Jorge Lopez RP | KC 1 P
DOWNRIVER DRAGONS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Grayson Greiner C | DET 1 C,DH
1B Niko Goodrum 2B | DET 14 1B,2B,CI,DH,MI
2B Dustin Pedroia 2B | BOS 4 2B,DH,MI
SS Troy Tulowitzki SS | NYY 8 DH,MI,SS
MI Josh Harrison 2B | DET 14 2B,DH,MI
CI Chris Davis 1B | BAL 1 1B,CI,DH
OF Billy Hamilton CF | KC 34 DH,OF
OF Hunter Pence LF | TEX 2 DH,OF
OF Mikie Mahtook LF | DET 1 DH,OF
DH Ji-Man Choi DH | TB 12 DH
P Joakim Soria RP | OAK 4 P
P Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET 4 P
P Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR 2 P
RES Domingo German SP | NYY 5 P
RES Jonathan Loaisiga RP | NYY 4 P
RES Shawn Armstrong RP | SEA 1 P
RES Matt Moore RP | DET 1 P
RES Daniel Norris SP | DET 1 P
WHISKEY JACKS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Salvador Perez C | KC 5 C,DH
3B Yandy Diaz 3B | TB 8 3B,CI,DH
MI David Fletcher 2B | LAA 7 2B,3B,CI,DH,MI
CI Ryon Healy 1B | SEA 11 1B,CI,DH
OF Randal Grichuk RF | TOR 30 DH,OF
OF Teoscar Hernandez LF | TOR 13 DH,OF
OF Dustin Fowler CF | OAK 4 DH,OF
DH Mark Trumbo DH | BAL 9 DH
P Aaron Sanchez SP | TOR 6 P
P Wade LeBlanc SP | SEA 6 P
P Ryan Borucki SP | TOR 4 P
P Bud Norris RP | TOR 1 P
P Jesse Chavez RP | TEX 1 P
RES Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS 8 1B,CI,DH
RES Brandon Drury 3B | TOR 2 3B,CI,DH
RES Daniel Vogelbach 1B | SEA 4 1B,CI,DH
RES Jose Rondon SS | CHW 1 DH,MI,SS
RES Kyle Zimmer SP | KC 3 P
RAIN DOGS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Christian Vazquez C | BOS 1 C,DH
C Kevin Plawecki C | CLE 1 C,DH
1B Jose Abreu 1B | CHW 36 1B,CI,DH
2B Franklin Barreto 2B | OAK 5 2B,DH,MI
MI Elvis Andrus SS | TEX 33 DH,MI,SS
CI Eduardo Nunez 2B | BOS 7 2B,3B,CI,DH,MI
OF Daniel Palka RF | CHW 7 DH,OF
OF Jorge Soler RF | KC 16 DH,OF
DH Adam Engel CF | CHW 5 DH,OF
P Zack Britton RP | NYY 5 P
P Framber Valdez SP | HOU 1 P
P Shawn Kelley RP | TEX 1 P
P Jharel Cotton SP | OAK 1 P
RES Clint Frazier LF | NYY 10 DH,OF
RES Bradley Zimmer CF | CLE 8 DH,OF
RES Richie Martin SS | BAL 3 DH,MI,SS
RES Anthony Santander RF | BAL 1 DH,OF
RES J.P. Crawford SS | SEA 1 DH,MI,SS
FLYING CIRCUS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA 5 C,DH
C Jason Castro C | MIN 1 C,DH
2B Jose Altuve 2B | HOU 60 2B,DH,MI
SS Jordy Mercer SS | DET 1 DH,MI,SS
MI Jonathan Schoop 2B | MIN 32 2B,DH,MI
DH Khris Davis DH | OAK 50 DH
P Cody Allen RP | LAA 16 P
P Clay Buchholz SP | TOR 3 P
P Marco Estrada SP | OAK 3 P
P Danny Salazar SP | CLE 3 P
P Shelby Miller SP | TEX 2 P
P Alex Cobb SP | BAL 3 P
P Jake Odorizzi SP | MIN 4 P
P Ryne Stanek RP | TB 2 P
RES Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 7 3B,CI,DH
RES Adam Cimber RP | CLE 1 P
RES Ervin Santana SP | CHW 1 P
RES Keynan Middleton RP | LAA 1 P
CHARLIE'S HUSTLER'S
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Kevan Smith C | LAA 2 C,DH
3B Asdrubal Cabrera 2B | TEX 27 2B,3B,CI,DH,MI,SS
CI Yuli Gurriel 1B | HOU 31 1B,3B,CI,DH
OF Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB 15 DH,OF
OF Jackie Bradley CF | BOS 37 DH,OF
OF Jake Marisnick CF | HOU 1 DH,OF
P Roberto Osuna RP | HOU 21 P
P Rick Porcello SP | BOS 32 P
P Marcus Stroman SP | TOR 13 P
P Alex Colome RP | CHW 14 P
P Yonny Chirinos RP | TB 8 P
P Ty Buttrey RP | LAA 3 P
P Brian Johnson RP | BOS 1 P
RES Dalton Pompey LF | TOR 1 DH,OF
RES Anthony Alford LF | TOR 1 DH,OF
RES Trevor Hildenberger RP | MIN 1 P
RES Ehire Adrianza SS | MIN 1 3B,CI,DH,MI,SS
RES Fernando Rodney RP | OAK 1 P
THE FLOYD RAYFORD EXPERIENCE
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Welington Castillo C | CHW 10 C,DH
C Mike Zunino C | TB 8 C,DH
CI Miguel Sano 3B | MIN 16 3B,CI,DH
OF Delino DeShields CF | TEX 15 DH,OF
OF Avisail Garcia RF | TB 17 DH,OF
OF Brian Goodwin CF | KC 2 DH,OF
OF JaCoby Jones CF | DET 2 DH,OF
P Carlos Carrasco SP | CLE 50 P
P Shane Greene RP | DET 9 P
P Michael Pineda SP | MIN 7 P
P Ryan Brasier RP | BOS 6 P
P Jake Junis SP | KC 13 P
P Michael Fulmer SP | DET 6 P
RES Trevor Cahill SP | LAA 1 P
RES Martin Perez SP | MIN 1 P
RES Hunter Dozier 1B | KC 1 1B,3B,CI,DH
RES Felix Hernandez SP | SEA 2 P
RES Fernando Romero SP | MIN 3 P
PREACHERS
POS PLAYER SALARY ELIG
C Mitch Garver C | MIN 6 C,DH
C John Hicks 1B | DET 7 1B,C,CI,DH
1B Steve Pearce 1B | BOS 3 1B,CI,DH
MI Tim Beckham SS | SEA 7 3B,CI,DH,MI,SS
OF Giancarlo Stanton DH | NYY 53 DH,OF
OF Ichiro Suzuki LF | SEA 3 DH,OF
DH Hanley Ramirez 1B | CLE 1 1B,CI,DH
P Adam Ottavino RP | NYY 12 P
P Eduardo Rodriguez SP | BOS 29 P
P Ken Giles RP | TOR 17 P
P Kelvin Herrera RP | CHW 4 P
P Matt Harvey SP | LAA 6 P
P Wily Peralta RP | KC 2 P
RES Lance Lynn SP | TEX 3 P
RES Lance McCullers SP | HOU 3 P
RES Jon Jay RF | CHW 2 DH,OF
RES Rowdy Tellez 1B | TOR 1 1B,CI,DH
RES Edinson Volquez SP | TEX 2 P

[Big Tymer]

Nice auction Keith! My RotoLab has us at the top so will be curious to see who was the better buy between Kluber & Verlander as that could be the deciding factor. The software has you a little light on Holds+Saves but that is a very easy place to gain ground as a counting stat (and its very bunched right now). Its always difficult to switch a stat in a long standing league like this so might take us awhile to figure out Holds but it was the right long term move. I had a bias towards closers still but might have been better off with just better ratio setup men. Time will tell.

I like your chances this year as you'll be 100% in for 2019 and I'll still have an eye to 2020+ with my crop on the FARM.

[frae]

Nice auction Keith! My RotoLab has us at the top so will be curious to see who was the better buy between Kluber & Verlander as that could be the deciding factor. The software has you a little light on Holds+Saves but that is a very easy place to gain ground as a counting stat (and its very bunched right now). Its always difficult to switch a stat in a long standing league like this so might take us awhile to figure out Holds but it was the right long term move. I had a bias towards closers still but might have been better off with just better ratio setup men. Time will tell.

I like your chances this year as you'll be 100% in for 2019 and I'll still have an eye to 2020+ with my crop on the FARM.

Thanks I have us 1-2 also and am curious to see how it plays out. I have some nice guys for next year still, but yes I am going to really push for one this year as this is the end of the Mike Trout era for me. Can't wait to see if he goes for $70 next year

[Hornsby]

Nice auction Keith! My RotoLab has us at the top so will be curious to see who was the better buy between Kluber & Verlander as that could be the deciding factor. The software has you a little light on Holds+Saves but that is a very easy place to gain ground as a counting stat (and its very bunched right now). Its always difficult to switch a stat in a long standing league like this so might take us awhile to figure out Holds but it was the right long term move. I had a bias towards closers still but might have been better off with just better ratio setup men. Time will tell.

I like your chances this year as you'll be 100% in for 2019 and I'll still have an eye to 2020+ with my crop on the FARM.

It's so cute that your little software favors you...LOL. You'll be looking up at me, again when the dust has settled.

[Teenwolf]

It's so cute that your little software favors you...LOL. You'll be looking up at me, again when the dust has settled. :P

2010's are mine, Steve. Going for my 6th championship in the decade. I'll let you all have a shot again next year. ��

I love seeing the rotolab projections. I do everything by pen and paper, and decorate my books with stickers. I should post a pic sometime.

[Big Tymer]

Generally your team should always rank well based on your own software that you are doing (in this case RotoLab for me) as that is what the valuations you are using to bid are based off. All bets are off once real baseball gets played.

[cool hand]

Good and insightful writeup. Thanks.

[frae]

Good and insightful writeup. Thanks.

Thanks, I hope it helps someone. I just like getting my thoughts out and then looking back after the year ends. It is fun to see how things change. This keeper list was pretty darn good if I got enough pitching I should at least contend. We will see.

[Gregg]

It's so cute that your little software favors you...LOL. You'll be looking up at me, again when the dust has settled.

I don't think software has ever predicted our league winner.

[cavebird]

Generally your team should always rank well based on your own software that you are doing (in this case RotoLab for me) as that is what the valuations you are using to bid are based off. All bets are off once real baseball gets played.

Yep. Doing well on your own software with your own settings can only tell you if you are in trouble because you aren't winning in it. It can't tell you if you are in good shape.

[wombat104]

Fun auction, I have Big Tymers and Trout Wars neck and neck with Whiskey Jacks sitting in 3rd.

[Teenwolf]

Fun auction, I have Big Tymers and Trout Wars neck and neck with Whiskey Jacks sitting in 3rd.

I believe I may need to part with some precious trade chips to get ahead of them, but I like my trade chips stacking up to theirs. Y. Alvarez and M. Chavis could be up and playing themselves into keepers or big trade chips this summer, and although I prefer to make W. Franco unavailable, he would fetch a fortune if that's what I needed to do. Will need some luck in the upcoming farm draft to re-stock grads and trades.