MSGL AL Only Auction Analysis

[Teenwolf]

Talent in the AL is much more scarce than years past.

My plan going in was to spend close to $200 on offense, $65 on pitching. I have tons of SB already (Mondesi, Villar, Mallex), so I was focused on HR and BA.

I wanted to spread the wealth. No $30+ buys. Keepers bold. Not paying for saves, being 1st year of SV+HLD.

C1 - D. Jansen $5
C2 - S. Perez $5
1B - L. Voit $3
2B - J. Villar $31
SS - R. Mondesi $20
3B - Y. Diaz $8
CI - R. Healy $11
MI - D. Fletcher $7
UT - M. Trumbo $9
OF - M. Brantley $19
OF - M. Smith $16
OF - R. Grichuk $30
OF - T. Hernandez $13
OF - D. Fowler $4

P - B. Snell $16
P - M. Clevenger $11
P - J. Berrios $10
P - A. Sanchez $6
P - W. LeBlanc $6
P - R. Borucki $4
P - K. Zimmer $3
P - J. Chavez $1
P - J. LeClerc $3

Bench (we bid on our bench)

M. Moreland $8
D. Vogelbach $4
B. Drury $2
J. Rondon $1
B. Norris $1

TARGETS:

HR targets: 1 or 2 of Grichuk/D. Santana/Schoop under $25 (I passed on Schoop $32, went to $30 on Grichuk, D. Santana went for $35 after that)... C. Frazier for bench under $8, but he went $9... Wanted J-M Choi for DH under $10, but he went for $12... I'm glad I landed Teoscar Hernandez $13, as other OF targets went too high (A. Garcia $17, Pillar $20, Gardner $18, Soler $16, Reddick $16, Bruce $15). I liked Kiermaier auction price of $15, but didn't need the SB, so figured I'd look for more HR instead, which turned into Teoscar... Glad I picked up D. Fowler $4, as he debuted for me last year, tossed him back at $5. Reminds me of when I had Clevenger as a rookie $5, tossed back and won for $1 the next spring... ALSO, I'm super happy to have landed Vogelbach $4. Such a weird profile, I hope it works.

Mistakes - How did I end up with 3 CI on my bench? Moreland $8 looks foolish with my roster, should have moved that extra $7 to pitching. I feel a good chance for a few of these CI to fail (Voit, Healy, Diaz, Moreland, Vogelbach, Drury), so I guess I have depth at my weakest position, which is nice. I also wanted Pineda under $10, and was writing something down when Pineda sold for $7. Given that the 5 SP before him went Bundy $14, Miley $14, Keller $13, Boyd $14, Fiers $14... I think Pineda is a great price in comparison to those guys.

Worst/strange prices (just my opinion): Porcello $32, J. Bradley $37, Y. Gurriel $31, D. Gregorius $18 (compare injured buys: Seager $7, Sano $17)... inflation creates some weird buys at times, but these felt at least $10 high to me.

[virgonomic]

Tons of speed. You are still short on power but not overpaying was a good move since you can trade SB for power in season.

Big dropoff in pitching after your keepers. I also think not buying a closer was smart since you can grab setup men with high holds.

Perez is a curious buy. I assume you will stash him as a keeper?

If you acquire power and tweak the pitching staff I think this team can contend.

[frae]

I love how you have Mondesi as R Mondesi

You are loaded up on speed, I think I have you like 25 SB's clear or more of me in 2nd. So you will need to find a trading partner to get the power I have you lacking. You always manage your pitching staff well and the 4 you kept were very good and I am sure you will make the starters work. I would say I am worried about your SV+H numbers. You only drafted one rsv pitcher so if we started today you would not be able to stream for much in that category and I think you only have LeClerc, Chavez, and Norris with cerain bullpen roles.

You always find your way into the chase and I am sure this will be no different. Good luck.

[Gregg]

Thanks for posting. I enjoyed reading this. It also gives me things to think about for my own 12 team AL only keeper auction.

I think you have enough speed that you can trade some for saves as the season progresses. I would not do it until I have a pretty fair amount of sbs built up. You appear light in power, but that will depend on how guys like Healy, Vogelback, Mooreland and a few others actually perform. I actually have all three targeted for my own auction.

I am disappointed to read the prices of Fiers and Boyd. I have Fiers at $2 but have no room for him. No one is interested in trading for him so I was hoping to get him back for the same 2 bucks. I think I need a plan B. I have Boyd for 10 and thought he is fair priced. Again I shopped the heck out of him with no bites. Hoped to get him back cheaper. Again I better not count on it

Good luck on the season.

[Big Tymer]

I am disappointed to read the prices of Fiers and Boyd. I have Fiers at $2 but have no room for him.

Fiers here is an anomaly. I bought him and bought him real late where he was the best pitcher imo on the board and I had $ to spend. I also am high on Fiers so pair those 2 things together and you get someone who paid $14. Auction dynamics 100% as there was also very little pitching available at auction this year.

[Gregg]

Fiers here is an anomaly. I bought him and bought him real late where he was the best pitcher imo on the board and I had $ to spend. I also am high on Fiers so pair those 2 things together and you get someone who paid $14. Auction dynamics 100% as there was also very little pitching available at auction this year.

Thanks BT. I fear our auction dynamics might parallel yours.

I know it is hard to look back, but do you think you could have gotten him cheaper if you brought him up early?

I hope he pitches well for you.

[Big Tymer]

A few bucks cheaper likely but I suspect he would still have gone north of $8 even very early based on the lack of SP available.

[cavebird]

I like the pitching and the speed. Grichuk is a good buy for this year, but wow, not at that price (I would add him to your weird buys list). Then again, the other prices you note show your problem. If the keeper lists are so good to have that inflation, your keeper list was probably not one of the best. I would try to move speed for power early---you might catch up in HR if you trade in June, but RBI's are harder to do.

[wombat104]

I like your team as a dark horse. Going into the season I think it is between Big Tymers and Trout Wars. You had a little more money than me, wanted Vogelbach, Hernandez and Zimmer. I also should have went in on Pineda and thought Perez as a stash for next year was a smart buy.

[Teenwolf]

I like the pitching and the speed. Grichuk is a good buy for this year, but wow, not at that price (I would add him to your weird buys list). Then again, the other prices you note show your problem. If the keeper lists are so good to have that inflation, your keeper list was probably not one of the best. I would try to move speed for power early---you might catch up in HR if you trade in June, but RBI's are harder to do.

Thanks for the comments.

I love my keepers, even at somewhat high prices, but I had a pretty weak endgame auction. My final keeper was Villar $31, instead of Skaggs $5 (went for $19 in auction!)... but Villar, I swear to you, would have fetched $40+, so I wanted to assure myself of the underpriced stud. I really like Fletcher $7 and Y. Diaz $8 as BA stabilizers. I think Yandy is a nice power sleeper. Could be a 15 HR guy if he finds the launch angle magic. Fletcher should be a very strong BA, and could provide 15 SB, so maybe I'll be able to flip him as part of the SB for HR swap you mention, if he has a hot start.

Moreland/Healy are unnecessary in tandem, and my pitching buys were mediocre. I heard Aaron Sanchez is showing increased velocity in the spring, so he's a $6 dart toss. Leblanc $6 is fine, and I like him almost as much as the guys who went in the $14 range, so I'm okay with it. Borucki $4 is a dart toss. I think my 4 pitching keepers are stellar ratio boosters, with 700+ K, I only need a few more reliable SP. For spending $61, it starts out as a top 3 staff, just need to work on HLD+SV to fine tune. My 3 RP, I like em all. Zimmer $3 could easily become the KC closer, very weak competition there. J. Chavez $2, I love his 2018 numbers. Finally given the opportunity to focus on relief only, his velocity increased, and he put up incredible numbers. Also a multi-inning RP, so he could be a strong vulture win guy too, as well as giving 20-40% more IP to boost ratios. So I like Chavez in this format. Bud Norris should be the primary 8th inning guy in Toronto. Decent ratios and K's the last couple of years, lots of Hold potential, fine for $1.