ruh roh, my deep NL-only freeze list options.....

[Judge Jude]

love this feedback.

I have spent decades here trying to unlock the cube - and failing more than succeeding.

but it is fun to get help in thinking about yet another 'gamble.'

I think I am now very much closer to mine!

[pitbull]

Guys I respectfully disagree on Seranthony unless the Phillies sign Kimbrel. I see Kapler using both Seranthony and Robertson as co-closers. Kapler tends to handle his bullpen in a non-tradition fashion. While I agree that Robertson will get the bulk of the saves Seranthony should get about 10-12 saves plus he will be a nice plus on ERA, WHIP and K. But if Judge throws him back he knows his league better than us so what would his forecast be? Also Franchy I had listed as a possible only because his keeper list is not due until another week or so. Injuries, perhaps the switch will turn on but generally agree at this point he is the 5th OF or might be sent back to AAA.

[Judge Jude]

11 days til freeze time

it appears that I can get Ketel Marte for the 9th pick in the minor league draft in mid-April.

Marte will be 10-O - or 15-L2, with a free option for 20-L1 in 2020 if I like.
2B-SS qualifier, and OF with 1 game there - might be OF-eligible at auction since we draft 3 days in.

HQ projects him at $13, so anyone with a projected profit in a somewhat high inflation league is appealing. and he's only age 25.

I.... may not have any keepable INFs beyond Realmuto.

pick would be roughly in the 70s in a typical MLB top 100, so not a sure thing.
but 5-S2 until the year after he loses rookie eligibility, so when the dart hits the board....

also, leaning toward keeping Seranthony and dumping Franchy

[cavebird]

My two cents here:

1. This is a great keeper list because it means you were contending for many years in a row previous to this year. Since, unlike MLB, in a fantasy league, you can't have more resources than other teams and a higher budget, this will happen after a run. So, kudos to you for winning two of the last four years. Now it is time to pay the piper.

2. Looking at your possibles, I would keep: Caleb Smith, Knebel, Dominguez, Realmuto, Harper, and Eaton. Then I would go for the studs. If you don't have many worth over $20 available at auction, you aren't saving your money for anyone. Stars and scrubs usually doesn't work in a league this deep, but your situation is not great, so why not have some dump trade guys with a shot of catching lightening in a bottle---you listed Williamson as a keeper possibility at $10---if he goes for more than a buck, I'd be shocked. Drive the contenders nuts by making them pay for the studs if they want them.

3. (Bonus cent). I'd decline the offer unless you think you could get better in trade than Marte during the season. This team is rebuilding, no reason to trade the draft picks.

[Gregg]

11 days til freeze time

it appears that I can get Ketel Marte for the 9th pick in the minor league draft in mid-April.

Marte will be 10-O - or 15-L2, with a free option for 20-L1 in 2020 if I like.
2B-SS qualifier, and OF with 1 game there - might be OF-eligible at auction since we draft 3 days in.

HQ projects him at $13, so anyone with a projected profit in a somewhat high inflation league is appealing. and he's only age 25.

I.... may not have any keepable INFs beyond Realmuto.

pick would be roughly in the 70s in a typical MLB top 100, so not a sure thing.
but 5-S2 until the year after he loses rookie eligibility, so when the dart hits the board....

also, leaning toward keeping Seranthony and dumping Franchy

If I had roster room I would absolutely trade my 9th round res. pick for Marte. I would not give him a raise but I would be happy to roster him for 10 bucks. The only way I may not do it is if I thought I could get him back on new three year contract for the same 10 bucks. Not sure I would take that chance.

[Judge Jude]

thanks, guys.
I think cavebird's advice is very sound, and to be clear the 9th pick figures to be in not in the top 70 of a typical MLB top 100 prospects list.

all that said, I'm not sure I have a reverse gear before July 1. so Marte it is

[Judge Jude]

UPDATING with new comments and a week to go

NL-only 12-team 260-unit 5x5 with deep farm systems:

SP
AWood 5-O may start on DL? goodbye LT option, but keep?
CSmith 1-S1 healthier than expected, may avoid DL
DHolland 10-S1 had 176 quiet Ks last year for Giants but no one would keep apparently

RP
Knebel 2-O or 7-L2 this looked comfy either way (12-L1 owner option in 2020 if I like the latter) til Kimbrel buzz. but a keep
Jeffress 1-S1 seemed perfect until - "ow, my arm!" and DL. cheap, but opportunity cost of roster slot
Seranthony 10-S1 also looked good until DRobertson signing. seems to be in a committee but what a talent

INF
C Jacob Realmuto 13-S1 YAY!
1B MarkReynolds 10-S1 still waiting for that very nasty Murphy-Desmond short fly ball collision - so no
3B Evan Longoria 15-S1 who would pay more this year? apparently no one so no
2B Howie Kendrick 8-O always sneaky value but he is hurt, too so no?
SS Alen Hanson 10-S1 had sneaky value in 2018 but no gig now. so no

OF
Bryce Harper 41-O pricey even with move to Philly, but board says YES
Eaton 18-O hot spring so far but made of glass. still a YES
Williamson 10-S1 one more concussion away from goodbye, or goodbye even if healthy?
Franchy 10-S1 so intriguing but will he have a starting role? seems like no, so no

[Judge Jude]

ok, so Wood 5, Knebel 2, and Jeffress 1 will open the season the DL.

Knebel the most likely to be goodbye 2019, which would make a 2-O contract pointless.
Wood (back spasms) sounds like a mid-April return, but who knows.
Jeffress diagnosis in between.

would anyone freeze THREE DL'd pitchers?
and would it matter that we are trying the OnRoto "Bidmeister" feature this year for free agents?

we have always had the classic "pounce" rule where if you have an opening, you can grab a guy the moment he is called up (if not a farmhand in the league) or gains a better role.

I am told by rivals who used Bidmeister in another league that one concern is that the lowest-ranked team gets preference every week, making it difficult for a contender to add a new gem. if so, is it a terrible idea to freeze/buy injured talent that sets up for a slow start - and thus a chance to grab the freshest meat in April?

idea would maybe by May 1 you have righted the ship, and now have an upgraded roster by bogarting the top new-roles players that always come around more in April than any other month?

and did anyone have "Caleb Smith" as the P who would be healthy in late March?

[Ken]

I use onroto but not following you on the lowest ranked team issue.
Are you using FAAB dollars?

[Judge Jude]

they have a Bidmeister feature, that's all I know. we have used OnRoto since another company died (All-Star Stats, I think), but until now have not used that feature.

I guess for any player claimed in a week, the lowest-ranked team gets that guy each time.

FAAB not in play (well, we have a limited version just for AL players coming into league, but it's not connected to this, which is once a week claims on free agents are processed).

[Ken]

they have a Bidmeister feature, that's all I know. we have used OnRoto since another company died (All-Star Stats, I think), but until now have not used that feature.

I guess for any player claimed in a week, the lowest-ranked team gets that guy each time.

FAAB not in play (well, we have a limited version just for AL players coming into league, but it's not connected to this, which is once a week claims on free agents are processed).

Got it - the issue is not Bidmeister then the issue is that you are using waivers instead of FAAB. Waivers heavily favors the teams that are losing.

[Gregg]

ok, so Wood 5, Knebel 2, and Jeffress 1 will open the season the DL.

Knebel the most likely to be goodbye 2019, which would make a 2-O contract pointless.
Wood (back spasms) sounds like a mid-April return, but who knows.
Jeffress diagnosis in between.

would anyone freeze THREE DL'd pitchers?
and would it matter that we are trying the OnRoto "Bidmeister" feature this year for free agents?

we have always had the classic "pounce" rule where if you have an opening, you can grab a guy the moment he is called up (if not a farmhand in the league) or gains a better role.

I am told by rivals who used Bidmeister in another league that one concern is that the lowest-ranked team gets preference every week, making it difficult for a contender to add a new gem. if so, is it a terrible idea to freeze/buy injured talent that sets up for a slow start - and thus a chance to grab the freshest meat in April?

idea would maybe by May 1 you have righted the ship, and now have an upgraded roster by bogarting the top new-roles players that always come around more in April than any other month?

and did anyone have "Caleb Smith" as the P who would be healthy in late March?

I am not positive on how this works. I do know that if I am playing for this year I am not rostering Jeffress or Knebel (if he is out too long). Wood for 5 probably depending on what is back in the auction.

[Judge Jude]

the last time I just gave up and just bought players based on a year later was more than 25 years ago.
that "punting" team finished.... 3rd.

I'm always playing for this year but also looking to be flexible.
thanks, Ken, on Bidmeister clarification.

could buying injured players be a wild card for me?
for instance if I kept those 3, add Kershaw for 20-something and maybe buy the best couple of wounded hitters available, within 2 weeks I have a good shot at temporary last. then tweak the roster with new-roles player adds, and hope it all comes together.

I have pulled off crazier schemes than that....

[Judge Jude]

UPDATING with new comments and THREE DAYS to go and after acquiring Ketel Marte 10-O and cutting DHolland, Reynolds, Longoria, Kendrick, and Hanson

NL-only 12-team 260-unit 5x5 with deep farm systems:

SP
AWood 5-O may start on DL? goodbye LT option, but keep? now leaning NO
CSmith 1-S1 healthier than expected, may avoid DL. yes?

RP
Knebel 2-O or 7-L2 GUH. I guess he's a NO
Jeffress 1-S1 seemed perfect until - "ow, my arm!" and DL. value upticks a little w/o Knebel around, though, once he returns
Seranthony 10-S1 also looked good until DRobertson signing. seems to be in a committee, but what a talent. likely a YES

INF
C Jacob Realmuto 13-S1 YAY!
2S Ketel Marte 10-O and one game in OF qualifies him there, too. yes

OF
Bryce Harper 41-O pricey even with move to Philly, but board says YES
Eaton 18-O hot spring so far but made of glass. still a YES
Williamson 10-S1 one more concussion away from goodbye - or goodbye even if healthy?
Franchy 10-S1 so intriguing but will he have a starting role? seems like no, so no

[joncarlos]

I would keep Smith too, and Eaton and Harper and Marte. I really don't know what to do about the Brewers. What if Knebel ends up being OK? Do you keep Jeffress in case he's not?