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ruh roh, my deep NL-only freeze list options.....

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  • ruh roh, my deep NL-only freeze list options.....

    Let's see, in NL-only 12-team 260-unit 5x5 with deep farm systems:

    SP
    Kershaw 42-S1 obviously has left the building
    AWood 5-O ok but a little banged up and now in Cincy
    CSmith 1-S1 oddly, seems healthier than Wood for now but Marlins
    DHolland 10-S1 had 176 quiet Ks last year for Giants but really?

    RP
    Knebel 2-O or 7-L2 this looks comfy either way (12-L1 owner option in 2020 if I like the latter)
    Jeffress 1-S1 seemed perfect until - "ow, my arm!"
    Seranthony 10-S1 also looked good until DRobertson signing and might they Kimbrel too?

    INF
    C Jacob Realmuto 13-S1 YAY!
    1B MarkReynolds 10-S1 guh, would need a very nasty Murphy-Desmond short fly ball collision so no
    3B Evan Longoria 15-S1 who would pay more this year?
    2B Howie Kendrick 8-O always sneaky value but he is hurt, too
    SS Alen Hanson 10-S1 had sneaky value in 2018 but no gig now?

    OF
    Bryce Harper 41-O pricey even with move to Philly
    Eaton 18-O hot spring so far but made of glass
    Williamson 10-S1 one more concussion away from goodbye
    Franchy 10-S1 so intriguing but will he have a starting role?

    I have a dozen days yet, but was prompted to post while perusing OF availables

    per HQ projections, even with having them 'boost' the star prices a bit..... there are 20 OFs projected to earn 20.

    and how many of those figure to be available in the auction? TWO - Kris Bryant (who has more value at 3B) and Harper (if I don't keep him).

    of the mere 10 SPs available who project to $20, all figure to be kept except FAs Scherzer, Thor, and Strasburg.

    if I keep just 7 for 55 units and only on P, Realmuto, and OF - a defensible plan - how the heck do I spend 218 units in the auction?

    are SO many good OFs being kept that it creates opportunity? lots of teams already happy with their OF studs. or a bloodbath among us also-rans for what's left?

    INF quality for auction features Freeman, Rizzo, Escobar, Donaldson, Myers, Suarez, Baez, Dozier, Cano, Machado, Segura, Seager, Peraza

    inflation looking deadly: OFs who came up as 5-S2s and still way too cheap include Acuna, Soto, Bellinger, Hoskins, Robles, etc.

    can't ever remember things this extreme before in the previous 35 years
    Last edited by Judge Jude; 03-15-2019, 12:35 AM.
    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

  • #2
    Good luck as always!

    I would cut most of the borderline guys and would keep Harper.

    Comment


    • #3
      Judge not sure there are many keepers on this list.

      Keep Wood, Smith, Knebel, Seranthony, Realmuto and Harper for sure. Eaton and Franchy possible but that is wait and see. Eaton value is good if he plays a whole season and Franchy looks to me like he is behind Myers, Margot and Reyes. Also throw Jeffress on the possibility list.

      Comment


      • #4
        Harper only valued at $28 in this format by HQ; that's a hit even with high inflation. but it does go back to 'how do I spend 260 units?'

        I'm comfy with Eaton - .302 with 9 SB in second half 2018.

        looks like I go in with guns blazing for Strasburg and a basketful of those INFs
        finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
        own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
        won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

        SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
        RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
        C Stallings 2, Casali 1
        1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
        OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by pitbull View Post
          Judge not sure there are many keepers on this list.

          Keep Wood, Smith, Knebel, Seranthony, Realmuto and Harper for sure. Eaton and Franchy possible but that is wait and see. Eaton value is good if he plays a whole season and Franchy looks to me like he is behind Myers, Margot and Reyes. Also throw Jeffress on the possibility list.
          I am agreeing with most of this. Except I am not keeping Seranthony or Franchy. I think you get both back cheaper.

          Franchy is not getting the hype I was hoping for this preseason. I own him for a buck and unless he is declared the starter my plan is throw him back and rebid. I am doing this because I want to keep Ryu at $9 and just don't have the space. I will put aside $5 for him and hope I get him cheaper. If he is declared the starter he becomes a keeper. Given your circumstances I would keep him if he is named the starter. If not I throw him back and rebid.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
            Harper only valued at $28 in this format by HQ; that's a hit even with high inflation. but it does go back to 'how do I spend 260 units?'

            I'm comfy with Eaton - .302 with 9 SB in second half 2018.

            looks like I go in with guns blazing for Strasburg and a basketful of those INFs
            Why not guns blazing for Scherzer? What will he go for in your league?

            Comment


            • #7
              deGrom will be kept for 45
              so 50 for Scherzer?

              I have to take chances like maybe I get Strasburg for... 25? 30? I dunno. but upside, at least
              finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
              own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
              won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

              SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
              RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
              C Stallings 2, Casali 1
              1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
              OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                deGrom will be kept for 45
                so 50 for Scherzer?

                I have to take chances like maybe I get Strasburg for... 25? 30? I dunno. but upside, at least
                If you get him for $25 will you pair him up with a cheap Kershaw? That might be interesting.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                  deGrom will be kept for 45
                  so 50 for Scherzer?

                  I have to take chances like maybe I get Strasburg for... 25? 30? I dunno. but upside, at least
                  Why not 50 for Scherzer? With inflation that's not a bad price? And you were worried about how you were going to spend all your money.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    heh, good point on that front.

                    I went to one extreme last year - walking into the auction with 125 units out of 260 spent on Kershaw, Harper, and Rizzo - and finished 4th.

                    am vaguely tempted to let Harper go and walk in with the most units I've ever had. fraught with peril, but hey this stuff is fun but hard. I couldn't believe Mikolas got bid up to 13 (!) last year, but he was a bargain (and the owner who got him came in last anyway).

                    Strasburg+Kershaw does seem interesting. also risky, but might give me a puncher's chance of the price isn't too brutal. half the league has owned and been disappointed in Strasburg, and Kershaw terrifies a lot of owners.
                    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by pitbull View Post
                      Judge not sure there are many keepers on this list.

                      Keep Wood, Smith, Knebel, Seranthony, Realmuto and Harper for sure. Eaton and Franchy possible but that is wait and see. Eaton value is good if he plays a whole season and Franchy looks to me like he is behind Myers, Margot and Reyes. Also throw Jeffress on the possibility list.
                      Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                      I am agreeing with most of this. Except I am not keeping Seranthony or Franchy. I think you get both back cheaper.

                      Franchy is not getting the hype I was hoping for this preseason. I own him for a buck and unless he is declared the starter my plan is throw him back and rebid. I am doing this because I want to keep Ryu at $9 and just don't have the space. I will put aside $5 for him and hope I get him cheaper. If he is declared the starter he becomes a keeper. Given your circumstances I would keep him if he is named the starter. If not I throw him back and rebid.
                      I agree with Gregg.
                      “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”

                      ― Albert Einstein

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                        deGrom will be kept for 45
                        so 50 for Scherzer?

                        I have to take chances like maybe I get Strasburg for... 25? 30? I dunno. but upside, at least
                        Scherzer just went for 64 in my 12 team NL only tonight...to be fair, it was a HUGE dropoff to Kershaw as the next ace. I got Strasburg at 34.
                        "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                        - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                        "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                        -Warren Ellis

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          wow, thanks!
                          what was the previous record for a SP? or any player? and it's 260 units?

                          also Harper is a 41-0 contract - if I get him back at 42-S2 and he rakes, that's worth it. and if he goes for 38....

                          don't think I have ever - in 35 years in this league - had 200+ units to play with. ok, the first year, but I wound up with Graig Nettles as my 3B, so that's a little while ago
                          finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                          own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                          won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                          SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                          RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                          C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                          1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                          OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                            wow, thanks!
                            what was the previous record for a SP? or any player? and it's 260 units?

                            also Harper is a 41-0 contract - if I get him back at 42-S2 and he rakes, that's worth it. and if he goes for 38....

                            don't think I have ever - in 35 years in this league - had 200+ units to play with. ok, the first year, but I wound up with Graig Nettles as my 3B, so that's a little while ago
                            Yeah, 260, and I do believe that it's a new record. There just wasn't any starting pitching to buy at all...

                            I do like Harper, I don't think that the contract or the new city phase him...42 seems like a fair price.

                            Kershaw went for 32 with all of the questions surrounding him...
                            "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                            - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                            "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                            -Warren Ellis

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Same league as Horns. I just went back 10 yrs in our records, and its highest price paid for anyone I can see. It also is largest gap between 1st and 2nd most expensive bid pitcher, 30 buck drop off. I love Max but that is too aggressive to pay off.

                              Comment

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