Saves plus Holds

[frae]

Anyone used saves plus holds in an AL or NL only league? My AL only league will be using it this year and I am trying to get an idea of what to set for a target to finish in the top 3 of the standings. Using 4 years of data from the league the average top 3 score for saves is about 70 saves. Anyone have any idea on what that would move to when adding holds?

[Big Tymer]

Great question as I too am guessing. I’m basically planning to add another 20-30 to targets we typically set for saves alone as a starting point and manage it in season. I always target middle relievers anyway so don’t plan to overly target holds per se but RotoLab is helpful to at least provide player history for this stat.

[frae]

Great question as I too am guessing. I’m basically planning to add another 20-30 to targets we typically set for saves alone as a starting point and manage it in season. I always target middle relievers anyway so don’t plan to overly target holds per se but RotoLab is helpful to at least provide player history for this stat.

Funny you should say that before posting this thread I had just put a +30 into my projection target and figured that would be close to the top 1/3 if I hit it. Good luck!

[Ken]

Here's a quick back of the envelope methodology, but feel free to poke holes. In a 12 team Only league, each team will have 1-2 "closers" once committees are considered. Looking at last year's data the top 24 pitchers in saves in the AL averaged ~21 saves each. And I'd guess that every team picks up ~5 extra saves from various other RP along the way. So the median sits around 47-50 saves.

Now, expanding to S+H to me means you get more out of your 3rd RP on the team (assuming the typical pattern is 6SP/3RP) since they now contribute to the category more substantially. Looking at the top 24 last year in S+H, each one averages 31 S+H - that's a 10 count bump against just the saves for the 2 primary relief pitchers on your team. Then, the next 12 average ~20 S+H each, which is a ~15 increase over the 5 random saves a team would pick up. That puts your average team around 82 total S+H.

So I would tend to agree with a 30-35 count jump.

[cleo]

Here are the 2018 standings from our 12 team AL only league. we used S+H with each counting 1 for the category. But the impact lowered the auction value of Closers so much that we have made a change this year so now Saves will count 2 and Holds will count as 1. We are a keeper league so teams lower in the standings reflect dumping.

place 2018 S+H totals
1 139
2 131
3 130
4 121
5 118
6 103
7 101
8 92
9 88
10 84
11 61
12 49

[onejayhawk]

I am in a 20 team league with Net Sv+Hld, ie Sv+Hld-BS. It is definitely a different beast and last year Hader was a god. PitcherList did a ranking of the top 125.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/top-125-relievers-for-svhd-leagues-in-2019/

You will not go wrong trying to get IP, K/9, and ratios. The saves and holds take care of themselves.

J

[joncarlos]

Now, expanding to S+H to me means you get more out of your 3rd RP on the team (assuming the typical pattern is 6SP/3RP) since they now contribute to the category more substantially. Looking at the top 24 last year in S+H, each one averages 31 S+H - that's a 10 count bump against just the saves for the 2 primary relief pitchers on your team. Then, the next 12 average ~20 S+H each, which is a ~15 increase over the 5 random saves a team would pick up. That puts your average team around 82 total S+H.

Yeah, this is the key for me. In a league that deep most teams are starting a non saves getting MR as their 9th pitcher. Now that guy is a holds guy. Some teams will also get holds from their 2nd guy who they own as a part of a duo (the Brasier/Barnes duo now gets you 30 saves and 20 holds if you pair them, as opposed to 30 saves).

[onejayhawk]

A pairing like that can be really nice. Hader + Knebel is a freaking monster, easily worth an ace SP.

J

[Ken]

A pairing like that can be really nice. Hader + Knebel is a freaking monster, easily worth an ace SP.

J

With the opportunity cost of an additional roster spot, which is significant. So they aren't actually worth an ace.

[B-Fly]

With the opportunity cost of an additional roster spot, which is significant. So they aren't actually worth an ace.

And far less scarcity/volatility than we're used to under a traditional SV format, which should depress the cost of closers significantly, since you can load up on holds and roster zero saves if you wanted to do so. So in my mind that allows you to spend more on hitting and/or starting pitching, since you should be able to find quality S+H contributors at low prices. I think the RPs worth bidding up would be the ones who can come close to giving you SP-level Ks (in the 95-120 range).

[swampdragon]

It also substantially overvalues that 8th inning holds guy - Matt Barnes is almost as valuable as Kinbrel last year
and the best diamondback relievers were a 7th inning and an 8th inning guy - much better than their "closer"

[onejayhawk]

With the opportunity cost of an additional roster spot, which is significant. So they aren't actually worth an ace.

As Brian says, you are picking nits. From last year's stats Hader and Knebel for

10 W, 136.2 IP, 231 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 55 S+H

That looks like a CY winner, not just an ace. In standard format, neither is being drafted in the top 100.

It also substantially overvalues that 8th inning holds guy - Matt Barnes is almost as valuable as Kinbrel last year and the best diamondback relievers were a 7th inning and an 8th inning guy - much better than their "closer"

Barnes was not almost as valuable as Kimbrel. The number of W, IP, and K were about the same but rest is not:

Kimbrel 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 42 S+H
Barnes 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 25 S+H

Kimbrel was much better. The question the team raises is whether he was as much better as the salary suggests.

J

[Ken]

As Brian says, you are picking nits. From last year's stats Hader and Knebel for

Wait, what? Brian agreed with me. That's why his post started with "And". I think you are very confused by what we are saying here.

10 W, 136.2 IP, 231 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 55 S+H
That looks like a CY winner, not just an ace. In standard format, neither is being drafted in the top 100.

Since you lost out on a roster spot by doing this, your comparison point should be the two of them vs an ace plus a replacement level RP (which will be quite good given the increased value of RP) or SP. Which makes 231K across two roster spots seem terrible when you are supposedly thinking it's worth the value of an ace.

For this comparison to work you should be taking an ace, lets say for demonstration purposes Aaron Nola (using DeGrom or Scherzer wouldn't be fair). And lets use a middle reliever - not a top guy like you mentioned, but just an average MR who gets some holds. Say James Pazos.

Adding Nola and James Pazos up you get:

21 W, 262.1 IP, 269 Ks, 2.46 ERA (across twice the IP), 1.03 WHIP, 19 S+H.

Your pair gives you around ~$20 of value
My pair gives me ~$33 of value

The point is that you can't just take TWO of your roster spots and add them up and say it's a cy young winner. Because you are throwing away a roster spot which comes with a base level of stats. And Taking a 0 for a position is terrible even if you have an ace in the other position.

[bryanbutler]

We have used SV+Ho/2-BS for a long time in my main league. I target 80 for that category. YMMV.

[Vecmizer]

My league is making the switch this year. It's a 10 team AL only.

If an average of 72 saves gets me a 3rd place finish in years past, how many holds should I plan on having to add to stay around third in the category?

As stated earlier, this should bring the price on closers down. In this league SP costs have been rising over the last 3-4 years, can I expect to see a drop in price for the lower tier starters? More teams going for RP so lower tier SP are more plentiful type scenario?

In this league I typically have 5 SP maybe a guy who will become a SP by years end, two closer and 1 closer in waiting type. How could the change effect how I set my pitching staff? Should I plan for 5 SP 2 Hold types and 2 closers (assuming I can get high K RP)?

With more RP on rosters I'm guessing Whip and Era totals drop but how much should I plan for?