Bart/Cease for Paddack

[DJRadar]

16-team, 6x6 (AVG, HR, R, RBI, SB-CS, BB-K and W, HD, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
$400 in-season cap
keep 6 major/4 minor - keeper deadline Friday
+$3 first 3 years, +$6 after that

C - Realmuto $24 1st year keeper
1B - Flores $5
2B - Merrifield $16 2nd year keeper
3B - Castellanos $14
SS - Marte $5
CI - Beckham $1
MI - Herrera $10
OF - Harper $43 7th year keeper
OF - Trout $43 7th year keeper
OF - Benintendi $16 2nd year keeper
OF - Pederson $5
DH - Dustin Fowler $5
P - Cody Allen $8 2nd year if kept
P - Wade Davis $19
P - Andrew Miller $23 2nd year if kept
P - Duffy $9
P - Buchholz $10
P - Nola $11 3rd year keeper
P - Gomber $10
P - Wheeler $13 1st year if kept
P - Weaver $19 1st year if kept
BN - Colome $21
BN - Godley $20
BN - Keller $10
BN - Mahle $5
BN - Manaea $1
BN - Roark $6
MN - Carson Kelly $1
MN - Rodgers $10
MN - Schrock $10
MN - Paddack $10

I'm planning on only keeping 2 minors. I've been offered Bart $10/Cease $1 for Paddack. I want to get Alonso, but he wants to do a 2-for-1 but not offer up Alonso and Bart in the same deal. I know Paddack is rumored to be in the OD starter mix for SD. How good can he be this year? And how quickly can Bart move through SF's farm?

[Hornsby]

I catcher league, don't bother with Bart...he's not the 2nd coming of Posey, he'll likely hit for a pretty mediocre BA. You'll almost surely regret dealing Paddack in the long term.

[revo]

Nope. Paddack may be the Padres opening day starter.

[Sour Masher]

Nope. Paddack may be the Padres opening day starter.

I'd keep Paddack too, but he has thrown less than 180 innings in his minor league career. I'd be shocked if he opened the year with the Padres, and if he does, he will hit his inning cap soon after the all star break.

[Sour Masher]

Also, Kelly and schrock are very weak minor league keepers with only 4 minor league spots. There are guys that have to be available that are better than them.

[Roy Hobbs]

I'd keep Paddack too, but he has thrown less than 180 innings in his minor league career. I'd be shocked if he opened the year with the Padres, and if he does, he will hit his inning cap soon after the all star break.

Have they given a inning limit on Paddack?

[Sour Masher]

Have they given a inning limit on Paddack?

Not explicitly, I don't think, but again, in his entire minor league career, total, he has thrown 177 innings. Since 2015. He threw 90 innings last year. I just don't see any way in the world Paddack starts the year as a starter for the Padres and finishes the year as a starter for the Padres. I think 150 innings is the about as many innings as you could hope to get from Paddack in 2019, and I'd bet the under.

All that said, I like him a lot long term. If that 3rd pitches continues to develop, he is going to be very, very good. His change up is amazing. His fastball and control are great. I just traded for him. I'm on board.

[TS Garp]

Not explicitly, I don't think, but again, in his entire minor league career, total, he has thrown 177 innings. Since 2015. He threw 90 innings last year. I just don't see any way in the world Paddack starts the year as a starter for the Padres and finishes the year as a starter for the Padres. I think 150 innings is the about as many innings as you could hope to get from Paddack in 2019, and I'd bet the under.

All that said, I like him a lot long term. If that 3rd pitches continues to develop, he is going to be very, very good. His change up is amazing. His fastball and control are great. I just traded for him. I'm on board.

I think 150 is optimistic. I’d say closer to 120-130 so adjust expectations accordingly this season. But the sky’s the limit long-term.

[Judge Jude]

yes, Paddack is a fine 2020 play, but I think 100 MLB IP in 2019 would be a lot given his pedigree.

[cavebird]

Yes, Paddack has an innings limit--if things don't change, like his being good and the Padres competing--no way they sign Machado then shut down their rookie star in a pennant race. Don't take that trade, it's silly. You are getting magic beans.

[Sour Masher]

Yes, Paddack has an innings limit--if things don't change, like his being good and the Padres competing--no way they sign Machado then shut down their rookie star in a pennant race. Don't take that trade, it's silly. You are getting magic beans.

I don't think they would risk Paddack's health long term (and he hasn't been a beacon of health in his career as it is) for a competitive advantage of a few starts down the stretch. They have Machado for a decade. If they are smart, and start off well with Paddack, they will give him a break midseason so they can bring him back for the stretch run. That way, they could keep him at 120-150 innings and still get the most out of him. But if they ride him into the ground in year one, especially given him already being a TJ survivor and having other health issues so far, I think that would be incredibly short-sighted of them. Paddack is a decent curveball away from developing into a legit 2/3 starter imo. I wouldn't risk several years of that level of production for a few extra starts in 2019.

[TS Garp]

I don't think they would risk Paddack's health long term (and he hasn't been a beacon of health in his career as it is) for a competitive advantage of a few starts down the stretch. They have Machado for a decade. If they are smart, and start off well with Paddack, they will give him a break midseason so they can bring him back for the stretch run. That way, they could keep him at 120-150 innings and still get the most out of him. But if they ride him into the ground in year one, especially given him already being a TJ survivor and having other health issues so far, I think that would be incredibly short-sighted of them. Paddack is a decent curveball away from developing into a legit 2/3 starter imo. I wouldn't risk several years of that level of production for a few extra starts in 2019.

Exactly. It's possible things break their way and they're competitive this year but I think they really see their window as 2020-2023 (and beyond, potentially) and they're not going to jeopardize that by pushing him this year.