Inheriting an AL only team and need to select keepers

[B-Fly]

It's a 5x5 AL only with OBP instead of AVG and HD instead of WHIP. Two utility slots, one catcher. Nine pitchers, at least four of which must be SPs. $280 budget, but if you want to extend anyone's contract, you have to save that money ($3 per extension year) during the auction. To the extent that the prior owner of my team had given contract extensions, I'm either compelled to honor them or to cut them and sacrifice half of their 2019 salary against my auction budget. I can keep up to 10 guys.

Pre-Extended

Judge $8 ($13 2020)
Lindor $18
Mazara $13
Bradley $18
Sano $18

So on these guys, my instinct is that it is better to keep Bradley and Sano at $18 each rather than cutting either one and forfeiting $9 of auction budget, because I think they're each worth at least $9 in AL only, particularly with expected inflation. Do y'all agree?

Additional Potential Keepers

Piscotty $22
R.Guzman $1

Giles $29
Betances $10
McHugh $1
W.Peralta $1
Yarbrough $1

Nothing super exciting here, although I think in a HD/SV/K league where there's temptation to carry at least four relievers, Betances is very valuable because of his Ks. McHugh is probably also a no brainer at $1 and potentially worthy of holding back $3 of auction money as a keeper. I think Guzman, Peralta and Yarbrough are probably keepable, too, with no real need to plan on extending.

Although I'll need a closer, I don't think Giles at $29 is worth keeping. I assume I can get someone as good or better for $29 or less at auction.

Piscotty is maybe worth $22 with inflation, no? Just not sure I want to go in with four OF keepers and thus limited opportunity to pounce on a bargain or a higher upside player.

[mjl]

Who is Bradley? Zimmer?

[Ken]

Who is Bradley? Zimmer?

Jackie

[Ken]

Judge
Lindor
Mazara
Bradley - I agree with what you posted, easy keep considering he costs you $9 after sunk costs
Sano - borderline due to injury but I'd still keep

Piscotty
R.Guzman - you said probably keepable, I think this undersells him, he's an auto keep at $1 for me in AL only
Betances - with holds and saves on equal footing, he's one of the top RP available
McHugh - can you keep him as a SP or just RP? Either way you are keeping him at $1
W.Peralta

[Gregg]

Judge $8 ($13 2020)
Lindor $18
Mazara $13
Bradley $18
Sano $18

So on these guys, my instinct is that it is better to keep Bradley and Sano at $18 each rather than cutting either one and forfeiting $9 of auction budget, because I think they're each worth at least $9 in AL only, particularly with expected inflation. Do y'all agree?

I do agree with this and would do the same if it were my team.

Can you get Betances the same or cheaper at auction? I think I would toss him back.

As far as Giles goes, it would seem like you could do better for the money. What are some of the other prices of closers in this league? Were any of the pricey ones kept going into last year their second season?

[Ken]

Can you get Betances the same or cheaper at auction? I think I would toss him back.

He wouldn't get him cheaper if I'm in that league. With holds as its own category IMO you should treat him just like an elite closer. For $10, I think that's a safe keep personally.

[Teenwolf]

I really hate that format, HD instead of WHIP.

I'm in a SV + HD instead of SV format AL only league and I feel like it doesn't affect reliever pricing nearly as much as this format. With SV and HD separate categories, an elite setup guy is exactly as equal as an elite closer. Therefore, Betances is a must keep.

Drop Giles for sure. After that, probably drop Peralta or Piscotty. I don't mind Piscotty at that price, but nothing special.

[B-Fly]

He wouldn't get him cheaper if I'm in that league. With holds as its own category IMO you should treat him just like an elite closer. For $10, I think that's a safe keep personally.

That's how I see it, which almost makes Peralta a no-brainer at $1 as well, I'd think, although the Royals presumably won't win as many games.

[Teenwolf]

That's how I see it, which almost makes Peralta a no-brainer at $1 as well, I'd think, although the Royals presumably won't win as many games.

The difference is, Peralta isn't very good, aside from playing for a basement dweller. I could be wrong, havent looked at Peralta up close lately.

[B-Fly]

Can you get Betances the same or cheaper at auction? I think I would toss him back.

As far as Giles goes, it would seem like you could do better for the money. What are some of the other prices of closers in this league? Were any of the pricey ones kept going into last year their second season?

Interestingly, Betances went for $25 in 2017, was tossed back and went for $10 in 2018. I doubt I'd get him cheaper at auction this year.

As for closers, a lot were kept. Here are the ones that were bought at auction.

In 2017:

Chapman 35
Kimbrel 31
Allen 29
Robertson 28
Herrera 28
K-Rod 25
Dyson 21

In 2018:

Allen 33
Chapman 31
Giles 29
Treinen 21

All the other closers had already been kept in those prior years. So I don't know. Thankfully, they have a scheduled roll out of keeper announcements and as the new guy I get to announce last, so I can see which closers will be available before I finalize my keeper list. I know that at least Osuna, Givens, Boxberger, Hand, Strickland, May and Parker will be available, because they're either unowned or expiring. Treinen, Barnes, Alvarado and Greene will almost certainly be kept. Chapman, Allen, Giles and Colome (and Kimbrel if he signs in the AL before the auction) are all debatable at their keeper price.

[Gregg]

He wouldn't get him cheaper if I'm in that league. With holds as its own category IMO you should treat him just like an elite closer. For $10, I think that's a safe keep personally.

I can see your point. And he may be worth it. It just seems to me that holds is harder to project than saves. That is why I asked the question on how the league sees his value.

[Gregg]

Interestingly, Betances went for $25 in 2017, was tossed back and went for $10 in 2018. I doubt I'd get him cheaper at auction this year.

As for closers, a lot were kept. Here are the ones that were bought at auction.

In 2017:

Chapman 35
Kimbrel 31
Allen 29
Robertson 28
Herrera 28
K-Rod 25
Dyson 21

In 2018:

Allen 33
Chapman 31
Giles 29
Treinen 21

All the other closers had already been kept in those prior years. So I don't know. Thankfully, they have a scheduled roll out of keeper announcements and as the new guy I get to announce last, so I can see which closers will be available before I finalize my keeper list. I know that at least Osuna, Givens, Boxberger, Hand, Strickland, May and Parker will be available, because they're either unowned or expiring. Treinen, Barnes, Alvarado and Greene will almost certainly be kept. Chapman, Allen, Giles and Colome (and Kimbrel if he signs in the AL before the auction) are all debatable at their keeper price.

I would rather have Osuna and/or Hand than Giles. I can see why Giles went for 29 last year, but this is not last year. I agree with you that he should be dropped.

[B-Fly]

I can see your point. And he may be worth it. It just seems to me that holds is harder to project than saves. That is why I asked the question on how the league sees his value.

It's probably harder to project in most bullpens, but not so hard to project for the Yankees.

[Gregg]

It's probably harder to project in most bullpens, but not so hard to project for the Yankees.

How many do you project?

Do we have an over and under?

[B-Fly]

How many do you project?

Do we have an over and under?

I'd project around 20-25 holds and 4-6 saves for him.